OMG it's the SpaceX Party Thread!

[dcporter]

That's fun and all, but please don't set him up for failure with dreams of wormholes. =( He's talked about nuclear propulsion, which is squarely in the realm of physics theory that, y'know, exists, and that's plenty enough dreaming for me!

[BrightLight]

I have a simple question:
can the dragon manned or unmanned berth to ISS without the aid of a the
Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS)?

[peter-b]

can the dragon manned or unmanned berth to ISS without the aid of a the
Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS)?

Berthing can only happen using SSRMS due to the design of the Common Berthing Adapter (CBM).

Manned Dragon will dock, not berth, and won't need the assistance of SSRMS.

Hope that answers your question!

[DaveH62]

Another win for SpaceX seems to to be an estimated doubling of SpaceX value in the secondary market. If they get reusable down and Famlcon Heavy off next year there could be a few new dot space millionaires and billionaires.

http://www.privco.com/privately-held-spacex-worth-nearly-5-billion-or-20-share-double-its-pre-mission-secondary-market-pricing-following-historic-success-at-the-international-space-station

[wolfpack]

Another win for SpaceX seems to to be an estimated doubling of SpaceX value in the secondary market. If they get reusable down and Famlcon Heavy off next year there could be a few new dot space millionaires and billionaires.

http://www.privco.com/privately-held-spacex-worth-nearly-5-billion-or-20-share-double-its-pre-mission-secondary-market-pricing-following-historic-success-at-the-international-space-station

Will they trade on NASDAQ or NYSE? If NYSE, it's a 3-letter symbol - SPX maybe? But NASDAQ is 4 - ELON perhaps? 

[Confusador]

Another win for SpaceX seems to to be an estimated doubling of SpaceX value in the secondary market. If they get reusable down and Famlcon Heavy off next year there could be a few new dot space millionaires and billionaires.

http://www.privco.com/privately-held-spacex-worth-nearly-5-billion-or-20-share-double-its-pre-mission-secondary-market-pricing-following-historic-success-at-the-international-space-station

Will they trade on NASDAQ or NYSE? If NYSE, it's a 3-letter symbol - SPX maybe? But NASDAQ is 4 - ELON perhaps? 

TSLA is NASDAQ, so if we were betting I'd go with SPCX

[cro-magnon gramps]

all this hype about IPOs and Valuations is just that hype, not worth the electrons it is bothering;
Quote> In a public statement, Musk said that before an IPO, SpaceX would first need to establish a reliable rhythm of launches for NASA and other customers, a process which could take years.<End Quote

I predict that it will be at least the beginning of 2014 to mid term of that year, before Elon feels comfortable to do an IPO; and that will be based on a consistent string of successful launches; if one were to use Jim's Blind Squirrel 90% success point, it would be the first launch of 2015 before SpaceX would be considered successful, and that with NO FAILURES between now and then. How lucky do you feel SpaceX will be in those next 23 launches??

Gramps

edit, got the number of launches incorrect, forgot the 2 projected for this year to the ISS;

[savuporo]

I just saw this tweeted
http://www.spacex.com/careers.php
Surprised how many engineering and development functions they are still hiring, both for design and manufacturing. I was expecting much more technicians and ops people.

[wolfpack]

TSLA is NASDAQ, so if we were betting I'd go with SPCX

So would I, but you've got to give kudos to the companies that like to get creative with their ticker symbols, like Southwest Airlines, which is LUV.

Maybe MARS?

[BobCarver]

TSLA is NASDAQ, so if we were betting I'd go with SPCX

So would I, but you've got to give kudos to the companies that like to get creative with their ticker symbols, like Southwest Airlines, which is LUV.

Maybe MARS?

The exchanges are not following that old convention for tickers anymore. Makes it easier for companies to switch exchanges and keep their same tickers.

I remember Elon saying a year or two ago that he had made it very clear that the goal of SpaceX was not to maximize shareholder profits, so while I wouldn't guarantee SpaceX won't make investors rich, that's not the primary goal for going public. He did say that making a profit was important (otherwise, they'd go bust), but I interpreted his remarks as that he intended to maximize investments in space R&D rather than lining investors' pockets. In other words, no focusing on quarterly profit goals to the detriment of R&D. Still, I suspect that in the long run that is going to make investors one huge pile of profits. Just not quarter-to-quarter.

[oiorionsbelt]

Its the omG sPACEx party thread so what the hey....Dream Chaser and Dragon are chosen  for full crew funding not Boeing. Over time, SNC changes fron Atlas V to Falcon.

[spectre9]

FH can still be competed against and beaten.

Even rapidly reuseable rockets can be competed against and beaten.

I'd caution over any predictions of mega profits. If those profits appear market share will be eaten by the competition. This is the way all markets work.

SpaceX will not get a monopoly no matter how well their business case takes off.

I only see them as a means to an end. Keeping the launch market honest on cheap prices.

Transport to Mars? Jury is still out. I'm not that optimistic SpaceX can do it all by themselves. That hype is something I'll steer clear from.

[Jason1701]

FH can still be competed against and beaten.

Even rapidly reuseable rockets can be competed against and beaten.

In theory, but not likely in practice.

[QuantumG]

The only way to get a monopoly is by having the government grant it to you.

[Robotbeat]

The only way to get a monopoly is by having the government grant it to you.

Nope. There are natural monopolies. If you buy up the only sources of water in a city, you get a natural monopoly. Nobody else would be able to compete. Buy up all the land, same thing.

What would happen is basically the end of commercial spaceflight. NASA would begin throwing up as many regulatory road blocks to continued missions as they possibly could come up with. There would be no commercial crew, or perhaps only one flight. The usual suspects would criticize commercial as being the problem and blame them for everything.

Not gonna happen. SpaceX would move to another country -- or even another celestial body -- if needed. Maybe the Moon is the REAL Galt's Gulch...

Any settlement on a celestial body will be far /less/ libertarian in practice than possible on Earth. Think about it. On Earth, you can't buy up all the air. On a lunar settlement, whoever controls the air supply controls the population. It's much more amenable to tyranny than on Earth, to be honest. Our founding fathers said that if you don't like the gov't, you can just go out in the wilderness. In space, that means instant death so you are forced to live in a closer knit society with less individual freedom, since survival is much more difficult and resources much more constrained. Like District 13 in the Hunger Games (if you've read those books). Or the command economy during WW2.

[rickl]

The only way to get a monopoly is by having the government grant it to you.

Nope. There are natural monopolies. If you buy up the only sources of water in a city, you get a natural monopoly. Nobody else would be able to compete. Buy up all the land, same thing.

What would happen is basically the end of commercial spaceflight. NASA would begin throwing up as many regulatory road blocks to continued missions as they possibly could come up with. There would be no commercial crew, or perhaps only one flight. The usual suspects would criticize commercial as being the problem and blame them for everything.

Not gonna happen. SpaceX would move to another country -- or even another celestial body -- if needed. Maybe the Moon is the REAL Galt's Gulch...

Any settlement on a celestial body will be far /less/ libertarian in practice than possible on Earth. Think about it. On Earth, you can't buy up all the air. On a lunar settlement, whoever controls the air supply controls the population. It's much more amenable to tyranny than on Earth, to be honest. Our founding fathers said that if you don't like the gov't, you can just go out in the wilderness. In space, that means instant death so you are forced to live in a closer knit society with less individual freedom, since survival is much more difficult and resources much more constrained. Like District 13 in the Hunger Games (if you've read those books). Or the command economy during WW2.

Well, that's depressing.   

[Wyvern]

I always thought that space settlement would lead to city-states ala Greece.

[Jim]

Any settlement on a celestial body will be far /less/ libertarian in practice than possible on Earth. Think about it. On Earth, you can't buy up all the air. On a lunar settlement, whoever controls the air supply controls the population. It's much more amenable to tyranny than on Earth, to be honest. Our founding fathers said that if you don't like the gov't, you can just go out in the wilderness. In space, that means instant death so you are forced to live in a closer knit society with less individual freedom, since survival is much more difficult and resources much more constrained. Like District 13 in the Hunger Games (if you've read those books). Or the command economy during WW2.

I would say more like the Mars Colony in Total Recall

[oiorionsbelt]

I would say more like the Mars Colony in Total Recall

Alien air production will save the day, Red Dragon will be able to use parachutes for initial descent and hopefully we won't have to pull tracking devices out our nose

[mrmandias]

]Any settlement on a celestial body will be far /less/ libertarian in practice than possible on Earth. Think about it. On Earth, you can't buy up all the air. On a lunar settlement, whoever controls the air supply controls the population. It's much more amenable to tyranny than on Earth, to be honest. Our founding fathers said that if you don't like the gov't, you can just go out in the wilderness. In space, that means instant death so you are forced to live in a closer knit society with less individual freedom, since survival is much more difficult and resources much more constrained. Like District 13 in the Hunger Games (if you've read those books). Or the command economy during WW2.

You're not wrong, but close-knit communities where everyone performs useful work and where power can be easily abused tend to have robust republican institutions and a very alert citizenry.