OMG it's the SpaceX Party Thread!

[Jim]

Well no it doesn't.  What's it cost to develop the entire company including their vehicles and systems as compared to an equivalent exercise using NASA and/or existing major players?  No comparison.  SpaceX wins hands down against their local and international competition.

Wrong, it doesn't matter how much it cost to develop the systems. It is how much it costs to operate the systems.  That is what remains to be seen.  Also, OSC isn't finished either. 

[mduncan36]

I've seen more excitement around here than I have in a long time, and the reason that an unmanned flight to the same old LEO destination has generated that excitement is that we see there's a glimmer of hope that we just aren't getting from the bureaucrats and system that eats up so much money and time, and in 2012 is still decades away from Mars.

We don't have statesmen anymore with leadership and vision. We have pollwatchers. And for all their faults, those pollwatchers have to keep an eye on what we, the people who pay for all this, are excited about and want, because they'd like to keep their positions. If Elon Musk and those like him can generate some excitement by launching rockets and selling t-shirts, then that will do more than NASA and the various big corporations have done in a long time to get us out into space in a big way. If we, the people who PAY FOR THIS, want to drink the Kool-Aid, and go explore space, then some entrenched interests are going to have to either get with the program or get out of the way.

I've seen several comments to this effect and they mirror my thoughts about all of this. In a world filled with unreal "reality" entertainment, lawyers, unprincipled politicians, terrorists who want to return us to the stone age, endless paper studies, we are at last presented with someone who is actually doing something that will drive humanity forward. Obviously there is much to do and a long way to go but Spacex has opened a path for the beginning of this long journey. Nothing is certain but for the first time since I listened to the book of Genesis being read from the moon there is a bit of hope driving away the cynicism and doubt. A motivated young man is leading a very determined band of people toward a frontier ripe for exploitation and discovery. A single test flight to LEO isn't much but the potential, which we can now see and touch, is the stuff of a million romantic dreams. What thinking person could not be enthusiastic about that?

[Chandonn]

Can we turn this back into a party thread please?

[just-nick]

Can we turn this back into a party thread please?

Create a new thread: "Jim vs. SpaceX Fans"

[rickl]

Well, sometimes heated arguments can break out at parties.  (Gunfire, too, but let's not go there.) 

I still think this is one of the best threads evah.

[Jason1701]

Can we turn this back into a party thread please?

Create a new thread: "Jim vs. SpaceX Fans"

Spacex vs. SpaceX

[Beemer]

Totally Space Cadet retired military bum here, who's been watching the space program since Mercury. All I care about is "what works". I remember going out as a kid and looking at the moon on the night Eagle landed and thinking about how exciting it was going to be when we got to Mars. 43 years later, I don't expect to see anyone speaking English doing it in my lifetime, unless something or someone shakes up the system and provides the spark to make it a goal people can believe in.

I've seen more excitement around here than I have in a long time, and the reason that an unmanned flight to the same old LEO destination has generated that excitement is that we see there's a glimmer of hope that we just aren't getting from the bureaucrats and system that eats up so much money and time, and in 2012 is still decades away from Mars.

We don't have statesmen anymore with leadership and vision. We have pollwatchers. And for all their faults, those pollwatchers have to keep an eye on what we, the people who pay for all this, are excited about and want, because they'd like to keep their positions. If Elon Musk and those like him can generate some excitement by launching rockets and selling t-shirts, then that will do more than NASA and the various big corporations have done in a long time to get us out into space in a big way. If we, the people who PAY FOR THIS, want to drink the Kool-Aid, and go explore space, then some entrenched interests are going to have to either get with the program or get out of the way.

As some one who grew up watching the Apollo missions [I was wasn't born until the Mercury program was just about over- you do the math ] this post really resonates with me.

It has been a long time since I have experienced the excitement & wonder of spaceflight so strongly. It should be like this every time, no matter who is doing it!

And if that is drinking Kool-Aid well so be it.

[edkyle99]

I agree with both Jim and with those excited about COTS C2/3. 

Pragmatically, I see this as another launch, by another NASA contractor, demonstrating another new payload.  It is a first flight for Dragon, so I'm interested in it from that perspective, and I'm impressed that it has gone so smoothly, especially on orbit.  I'm also becoming more impressed with the design skills of this contractor.

But as a space junkie, I'm totally stoked.  This was really cool, and I can't quite explain why.  Something about the energy in the room, if you know what I mean.  (And I don't buy the hype about cities on Mars and nearly free launches.)

 - Ed Kyle

[Mongo62]

I feel the need to put in my two cents as well.

I still vividly recall watching the live TV images from Eagle as it landed on the Moon. Later my father and I stepped outside and stared up at the Moon, and I still remember thinking, "there are living human beings on its surface right now!" At that moment I was sure that by the year 2000 the human colonization of the Solar System would be well underway. Sadly, that did not happen, but the Apollo landings still rank as the supreme accomplishment in space to date, in my opinion.  Decades later, my father told me that he considered the Apollo 11 landing and first moonwalk to be the most memorable moments in his life -- as an avid SF reader, he had been waiting his whole life for that moment.  I myself might have been a little too young to properly appreciate it (lacking the proper perspective at the time), but it still ranks right up there as well.

The second most memorable moment in HSF for me has to be the STS-1 launch. The main thing I remember from watching the launch was feeling incredibly nervous. I was old enough to appreciate the tremendous risk the crew was taking. In fact, the TV cameras used in the broadcast were not capable of handling the tremendous brightness of the SRB exhaust, making the plumes look like they were flashing or pulsating. For a few moments I was convinced that something terrible was happening, before I realized that what I was seeing was simply an artifact of the old Vidicon systems used in the camera (later launches did not have this problem).

This Dragon cargo resupply flight is obviously not nearly as dramatic, or as directly historic, as those two events. It will likely be almost forgotten by all except hardcore spaceflight fans within a few years. But I still felt an incredible sense of significance, due to the future potential that this first test flight represents.  You see the same pattern in other areas of history as well -- the first initial steps into some new territory are very famous, but in themselves not terribly significant.  But eventually, those first steps turn into a flood of followers, who DO transform their destination and the civilization they left behind.  In a way, the entire history of HSF to date has been included in those "first small steps", and now, the coming commercialization of launch access and space resource development (I.E. Planetary Resources Inc.) promises to turn those first few steps into a stampede.

So yes, the actual mission and ISS activities are not all that dramatic in themselves, but to me they represent the start of the truly large-scale Space Age.

[ArbitraryConstant]

One of the reasons it's subjectively significant is that SpaceX talks big, but to date their pace of actually launching hasn't been anything to crow about.

For them to be seen to be making progress towards more routine launches is entirely worthy of celebration, even if this mission isn't anything new. We all know their larger goals won't go anywhere if they can't settle down and fulfill their launch contracts.

[billh]

I still vividly recall watching the live TV images from Eagle as it landed on the Moon. Later my father and I stepped outside and stared up at the Moon, and I still remember thinking, "there are living human beings on its surface right now!" At that moment I was sure that by the year 2000 the human colonization of the Solar System would be well underway. Sadly, that did not happen, but the Apollo landings still rank as the supreme accomplishment in space to date, in my opinion.  Decades later, my father told me that he considered the Apollo 11 landing and first moonwalk to be the most memorable moments in his life -- as an avid SF reader, he had been waiting his whole life for that moment.

Reminds me of my own experience. I have been a space nut as long as I can remember. One of my most vivid early childhood memories was watching John Glenn's flight. I was five years old. Shortly thereafter we moved to Houston because my dad got a job at NASA. He worked on the high mach number launch and reentry aerodynamics for Apollo. When we watched the Apollo 11 landing he wasn't with us, because he was on his two weeks of active duty in the Army Reserves. But my grandfather was there. He was born in 1892 in the Oklahoma Territory. One of his earliest memories was of being frightened by some of the Indians who still lived in the area. I don't think I can really imagine what it was like for him to sit there watching astronauts walk on the moon.

I ate, breathed and slept Apollo. I have always loved the shuttle - a beautiful, amazing machine. But along the way something was lost. Politics and budgets intervened. Bureaucracy increased. Risk-taking decreased. The space-faring world of science fiction that we were so confident was just around the corner receded further and further into a hazy, uncertain future. It slowly dawned on me that I might not actually live to see humans once again walking on the moon - let alone Mars. Constellation didn't get me excited. It was too much like Apollo, and seemed too likely to get canceled because of the tremendous expense (which did indeed happen).

But something happened in the last few years that got me excited again about our future in space. It was the X-Prize that first got my attention. I began to follow the many New Space companies that were springing up around that time. A generation of Internet entrepreneurs entered the field. They and the young enthusiasts who worked for them truly believed that hoary old sci-fi vision of a space-faring civilization, and dared to imagine they could bring it about. No more viewgraphs; they were actually flying rockets!

Once again I am a huge space enthusiast. The accomplishments of New Space were very small at first, but they are building. The current SpaceX mission to ISS is the biggest yet - but the best is yet to be.  I am glad that NASA is a partner in that future. Their enlightened leadership has led to COTS, commercial crew, the suborbital Flight Opportunities program, the Centennial prizes, data contracts with the GLXP contestants and more. This is getting to be fun again. I dare to dream again.

A huge thank you to SpaceX and all the other young companies pouring their energies into making an exciting new future in space for all of us. And thank you to NASA for deciding to get behind it and encourage it instead of standing in the way of it.

[Jason1701]

This party needs some rejuvenation. How about every time Jim posts "Spacex," I post an updated version with "SpaceX" and we all take a drink. We stop when he posts correctly or I get banned.

[DaveH62]

Well no it doesn't.  What's it cost to develop the entire company including their vehicles and systems as compared to an equivalent exercise using NASA and/or existing major players?  No comparison.  SpaceX wins hands down against their local and international competition.

Wrong, it doesn't matter how much it cost to develop the systems. It is how much it costs to operate the systems.  That is what remains to be seen.  Also, OSC isn't finished either. 

In a normal business the cost of development would be captured in future business revenues. So SpaceX captures their 1 billion in development costs from their CRS and commercial contracts. Compare to SLS, which would account for its 25-50 billion in development in its 5-10 launches over 20 years. You would also count the cost of funds, so you would count the interest paid to the foreigners funding our deficit. So add perhaps 5 billion to each SLS launch plus the rocket and operations costs and compare to Falcon 9. 
Make those numbers work and we can start a new party thread.

[FinalFrontier]

Can we turn this back into a party thread please?

Create a new thread: "Jim vs. SpaceX Fans"

Can we please drop this argument.

Jim is very knowledgeable in his field (rocketry, spacecraft prep among many other things) and is an industry expert. His points are valid but they are beyond the scope or point of this thread.

Drop it. This is a party thread and by definition its for spacex fans. It is not intended for serious debate, if you want to do that take to the discussion threads.

[arnezami]

I agree with both Jim and with those excited about COTS C2/3. 

Pragmatically, I see this as another launch, by another NASA contractor, demonstrating another new payload.  It is a first flight for Dragon, so I'm interested in it from that perspective, and I'm impressed that it has gone so smoothly, especially on orbit.  I'm also becoming more impressed with the design skills of this contractor.

But as a space junkie, I'm totally stoked.  This was really cool, and I can't quite explain why.  Something about the energy in the room, if you know what I mean.  (And I don't buy the hype about cities on Mars and nearly free launches.)

 - Ed Kyle

Amen.

[mgreb]

"OMG SpaceX Party Thread" brings up an image in my head of a wasted Elon running around in the Hawthorne factory wearing an Iron Man suit.

[joek]

But as a space junkie, I'm totally stoked.  This was really cool, and I can't quite explain why.  Something about the energy in the room, if you know what I mean.  (And I don't buy the hype about cities on Mars and nearly free launches.)

Anticipation? Months/years of foreplay? [cue Carly Simon]

[JNobles]

Create a new thread: "Jim vs. SpaceX Fans"

How about "Jim vs. the Volcano"

[aero]

I think the significance of this launch/mission is that it very clearly breaks the 8 year cycle from birth to defunding that has strangled the space program since pre Apollo days.

No one believes that Elon Musk will change his mind after 8 years and go off to do something else. But who can name a NASA program that has lasted more than 8 years other than by extended operations.

I'm jazzed, Mankind to Mars in my lifetime!

[Nate_Trost]

When they reach their projected flight rate we can refer to them as sPACEx.