Author Topic: Blue Origin Speculation Thread  (Read 35039 times)

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #40 on: 12/10/2013 11:58 PM »
A they building a suborbital or orbital LV and capsule?

Suborbital LV and capsule, orbital capsule, orbital upper stage.
Orbital first stage, too, which will be reusable (first stage won't actually go to orbit). (upper stage will go to orbit but will be expendable)

That's in their long-term roadmap, but they haven't started on it yet, right? It sounded like they hadn't even decided what fuel it would use.

They seem pretty committed to hydrogen as fuel.

Offline Jason1701

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #41 on: 12/11/2013 12:10 AM »
A they building a suborbital or orbital LV and capsule?

Suborbital LV and capsule, orbital capsule, orbital upper stage.
Orbital first stage, too, which will be reusable (first stage won't actually go to orbit). (upper stage will go to orbit but will be expendable)

That's in their long-term roadmap, but they haven't started on it yet, right? It sounded like they hadn't even decided what fuel it would use.

They seem pretty committed to hydrogen as fuel.

Quote
Still to be determined is the powerplant for the reusable first stage of the orbital vehicle. Meyerson says it could be a cluster of BE-3s, or something entirely different. Performance drove the decision to use hydrogen fuel in the BE-3, he says, but the company's engineers have not ruled out a different approach on the orbital first stage.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_12_09_2013_p29-642730.xml&p=2

Online QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #42 on: 12/11/2013 12:11 AM »
They seem pretty committed to hydrogen as fuel.

Not really, they've been messing around with H2O2 for years.

In this AV Week interview with Rob Meyerson, president and program manager of Blue Origin:

Quote
Performance drove the decision to use hydrogen fuel in the BE-3, he says, but the company's engineers have not ruled out a different approach on the orbital first stage.

“We selected the BE-3 as our first orbital launch vehicle engine because it provides us with options to go with an all-hydrogen architecture if we choose to,” he says. “We have ideas. Some things are in development for other engines that we're developing, but we're not ready to discuss those today. Those would provide other options and other architectures.”

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_12_09_2013_p29-642730.xml&p=1

I hear those things are awfully loud. It glides as softly as a cloud. What's it called? Monowhale!

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #43 on: 12/11/2013 12:44 AM »
So you really think that after creating a presumably economic hydrogen engine for suborbital and orbital applications, they will turn around and pick a less energetic fuel for a future reusable first stage?

Anything is possible I guess, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Online QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #44 on: 12/11/2013 01:09 AM »
LH2 is horrible for first stages.
I hear those things are awfully loud. It glides as softly as a cloud. What's it called? Monowhale!

Offline go4mars

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #45 on: 12/11/2013 01:21 AM »
Do we know enough about New Shepard to know whether it could get to orbit on a FH?
Let me try again:  Does anyone know roughly what the mass of a New Shepard; empty and/or fueled? 
« Last Edit: 12/11/2013 01:22 AM by go4mars »
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #46 on: 12/11/2013 01:45 AM »
LH2 is horrible for first stages.

Yet they are going to use it for a suborbital vehicle. Hmm.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #47 on: 12/11/2013 02:11 AM »
LH2 is horrible for first stages.

Yet they are going to use it for a suborbital vehicle. Hmm.
Bezos is a Mars guy.  What's suborbital here might not be suborbital there.  Then again, it might...

Quote from Bezos: "Do you want to know why I'll get to Mars first?" ...  "I'm smallest."  :D

New Shepard.  Guiding the sheep to redder pastures?
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #48 on: 12/11/2013 04:10 AM »
Personally, I bet they'd just use a cluster of them for a first stage. They're smaller than SpaceX and are also doing all their engine work, so they probably are even more constrained to picking with the general infrastructure they've already built than SpaceX. Unless Bezos plans to expand Blue Origin tremendously before going orbital (but I think his odds of keeping costs low are better with the small-medium-sized team he currently has).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Oli

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #49 on: 12/11/2013 07:58 AM »
Quote from: QuantumG
LH2 is horrible for first stages.

So is kerosene for the second stage. The difference in overall recurrent cost of an all-hydrogen vs. all-kerosene vehicle might be marginal.

Offline simonbp

Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #50 on: 12/11/2013 07:15 PM »
SpaceX used a Merlin on the Falcon 9 upper stage because they already had it. BO will probably use BE-3 on the orbital vehicle because they already have it. And the argument that "LH2 isn't best for first stages" is not as strong for flyback first stages like New Shepard, which have higher total impulse requirements.

IMHO the more interesting question is, when will New Shepard fly? And, given all of Virgin Galactic's delays, just how far behind will New Shepard be? My guess is that BO will start flying customers not much after VG...
« Last Edit: 12/11/2013 07:17 PM by simonbp »

Offline Danderman

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #51 on: 12/11/2013 07:36 PM »
My guess is that BO will start flying customers not much after VG...

Any hope for 2020?

Offline simonbp

Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #52 on: 12/11/2013 09:11 PM »
Where's that number coming from?

To be clear, I mean the New Shepard suborbital vehicle, which uses the existing BE-3 engines and is a scaled-up version of the prototype they crashed a few years ago. The timescale for that to be flying is much faster than seven years.
« Last Edit: 12/11/2013 09:12 PM by simonbp »

Offline dcporter

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #53 on: 12/12/2013 05:11 PM »
Where's that number coming from?

It was a joke about how long VG is taking to fly customers.

Offline M129K

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Re: Blue Origin Speculation Thread
« Reply #54 on: 12/13/2013 09:10 AM »
Where's that number coming from?

To be clear, I mean the New Shepard suborbital vehicle, which uses the existing BE-3 engines and is a scaled-up version of the prototype they crashed a few years ago. The timescale for that to be flying is much faster than seven years.
Didn't New Shepard use Kerosene/H202, or did they change that recently?

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