Author Topic: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread  (Read 811382 times)

Offline pathfinder_01

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #80 on: 07/16/2012 11:06 pm »
My hope:

CST100, Dreamchaser, and Dragon get funded this round. I’d give CST100 and Dreamchaser full funding, Dragon the .5 award(My concern with space X is have they bitten off more than they can chew launch wise but hopely the .5 keeps Dragon Rider going long enough in case the other two have problems)

Blue Origin hard to say how much progress has been done and Liberty is far too risky(attempting to develop both spacecraft and rocket in this short time period does not look likely).

Offline spectre9

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #81 on: 07/17/2012 12:39 am »
It is my hope that Dream Chaser is funded.

The rest are all capsules so any one of them can be picked I don't think it really matters.

The only thing I really don't want to see is ATK/Boeing being the top 2.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #82 on: 07/17/2012 01:15 am »
You know what, I don't think 2.5 awards is really that bad. I suppose it depends on who is chosen and what the outcome is, but it isn't necessarily a really bad thing. Assuming the judgement is fair. It'd be better if you could get 3 full awards with optional orbital manned milestones (so you can downselect to 2 from 3 potentially competent competitors), because it increases the capability to go to the third player at some later time if something goes wrong with one of the other two.
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Online Ronsmytheiii

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #83 on: 07/17/2012 01:55 am »
We never really know what negotiations are still going on behind the scene. Maybe our friend 51D might be privy to things he has seen or heard but cannot comment upon… ;)

The pessimist in me says SNC will likely lose out, since they've got the coolest vehicle and Congress seems intent on downgrading us to capsules...

All they have to do is promise to do an RPM close in (no reason to other than the "hey that is cool" factor) and I would think they had it in the bag.

Truthfully I think that whoever is chosen will have a strong case to provide crew services, it just might not be someone's favorite choice. 


Edit: I wonder how likely the chances will be that the company(ies) that don't get a contract will protest ala Planetspace in CRS?
« Last Edit: 07/17/2012 02:05 am by Ronsmytheiii »

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #84 on: 07/17/2012 02:15 am »
my farthings worth,
     Follow the money; whoever provides the most pork or political advantage; I don't see it being based on technology or ability at this stage in the game; maybe I am being a cynic, but politics will decide who wins. I think it is obvious who I would hope to be on the winning side, but we supported Bonnie Prince Charlie, and look what happened there ;D
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Offline Jim

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #85 on: 07/17/2012 02:16 am »
CRS was a FAR contract, SAA may not have the same recourse.

Offline WulfTheSaxon

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #86 on: 07/17/2012 02:51 am »
It is my hope that Dream Chaser is funded.

The rest are all capsules so any one of them can be picked I don't think it really matters.

The only thing I really don't want to see is ATK/Boeing being the top 2.

The rest are all capsules, true, but Dragon is to be landed propulsively.

My hope is that Sierra Nevada and SpaceX get full awards, without much care as to who gets the “.5”. Boeing can afford to go it alone, I’m by no means a fan of SRBs, and Blue Origin is far too secretive…

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #87 on: 07/17/2012 03:26 am »
The awards cover both developing spacecraft and man rating the launch vehicles.  So there will have be two awards in one.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #88 on: 07/17/2012 03:32 am »
The awards cover both developing spacecraft and man rating the launch vehicles.  So there will have be two awards in one.

That's an interesting way of looking at it. If Sierra Nevada only gets half funding, they could still make it to completion if Boeing gets full funding, because Boeing will be paying ULA for the human rating of the Atlas V and Sierra Nevada won't need to. Symbiotic.




Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Jim

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #89 on: 07/17/2012 10:51 am »
The awards cover both developing spacecraft and man rating the launch vehicles.  So there will have be two awards in one.

No, the awards are for a crew service and there will be one award apiece.  How the winner decides to allocate the money it is up to them.  They can spend all the NASA money on the spacecraft and choose to fund launch vehicle work internally or have a subcontractor paid for it.  Or the other way around.
« Last Edit: 07/17/2012 10:52 am by Jim »

Offline notsorandom

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #90 on: 07/17/2012 12:13 pm »
We never really know what negotiations are still going on behind the scene. Maybe our friend 51D might be privy to things he has seen or heard but cannot comment upon… ;)

The pessimist in me says SNC will likely lose out, since they've got the coolest vehicle and Congress seems intent on downgrading us to capsules...
Which system is chosen is not up to Congress. It is NASA that makes that call.

Offline Prober

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #91 on: 07/17/2012 04:47 pm »
The awards cover both developing spacecraft and man rating the launch vehicles.  So there will have be two awards in one.

No, the awards are for a crew service and there will be one award apiece.  How the winner decides to allocate the money it is up to them.  They can spend all the NASA money on the spacecraft and choose to fund launch vehicle work internally or have a subcontractor paid for it.  Or the other way around.

Any rough idea what the next level of milestones will be?
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Offline yg1968

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #92 on: 07/17/2012 05:09 pm »
I am not sure that I understand you question. The next round is CCiCap and should be awarded soon. This week or next week according to NW.

Offline rmencos

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #93 on: 07/17/2012 07:43 pm »
The awards cover both developing spacecraft and man rating the launch vehicles.  So there will have be two awards in one.

No, the awards are for a crew service and there will be one award apiece.  How the winner decides to allocate the money it is up to them.  They can spend all the NASA money on the spacecraft and choose to fund launch vehicle work internally or have a subcontractor paid for it.  Or the other way around.

Any rough idea what the next level of milestones will be?


EDIT: NASA set out goals and the participants should formulate their milestones from those goals.

Here's the language (most of it) from the CCiCap solicitation:

For the base period, to be concluded no later than May 31, 2014, NASA’s goals are for Participants to:
 
1.   Complete the detailed integrated design of the CTS.
2.   Demonstrate a process to analyze, quantify, and understand the risks associated with the design.
3.   Establish the criteria and plans for the Participants’ certification of the system for the orbital crewed demonstration flight, which    considers potential customer standards.
4.   Conduct significant risk reduction activities (for example, uncrewed test flight, pad abort test, or drop test).

For the optional goals, which must be stated in the proposal, the participant can plan on going beyond the May 31, 2014 base period  NASA states:

NASA goals for this period include significant test activities leading to the Participant’s certification of the system for orbital crewed demonstration flight. This demonstration should meet as many of the following goals as possible:

1.   Mission duration: a minimum of 3 days on-orbit
2.   Orbital altitude: achieve an orbit with a minimum altitude of 200nm
3.   Demonstrate controlled orbital maneuverability (for example: a simulated rendezvous)
4.   Demonstrate system sizing sufficient for a minimum of four crew members (NASA does not intend to provide crew for any proposed demonstration flights and recommends flying only the minimum crew necessary for a demonstration flight).
« Last Edit: 07/17/2012 08:13 pm by rmencos »

Offline AnalogMan

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #94 on: 07/19/2012 10:40 pm »
These must be the final two milestones for ULA completed under their unfunded CCDev2 agreement, since all others were already met last year.

5a - System Requirements Review (SRR)
5b - Hazard, System Safety and PRA Review

----------------------

NASA Partner United Launch Alliance Completes Two Atlas V Reviews
RELEASE : 12-245 July 19, 2012

CENTENNIAL, Colo. -- NASA partner United Launch Alliance (ULA) has completed a review of its Atlas V rocket to assess its compliance with NASA human spaceflight safety and performance requirements.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/jul/HQ_12-245_ULA_Atlas_V_SRR.html

(I'll have an article on this shortly - Chris).
« Last Edit: 07/19/2012 10:56 pm by Chris Bergin »

Offline SpacemanInSPACE

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #95 on: 07/22/2012 04:24 am »
Which system is chosen is not up to Congress. It is NASA that makes that call.

You don't think certain congressmen are lobbying for their preferred vehicle? While they can't choose which vehicle, they can set funding levels. They have an influence over the decision.

L2 has been pretty hot on CCDev btw, indulging info!
« Last Edit: 07/22/2012 04:31 am by SpacemanInSPACE »
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Offline daveklingler

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #96 on: 07/24/2012 05:57 am »
I don’t know about that.  In certain ways it might be the most dangerous vehicle, in that it has an exposed TPS in orbit.  But, that aside, I think it has a lot of support for a variety of reasons.

1)   It’s a reusable spaceplane that looks like a mini-space shuttle.  Many who aren’t well educated on such things view that as “high-tech” and “futuristic” in that it looks like an airplane.  Obviously the Shuttle taught us that perception isn’t necessarily reality.  But regardless, a mini-shuttle landing on the SLF at KSC is a visual effect that I think many in NASA, and even Congress would like to see with the Shuttle retired.
2)   It’s based on a NASA design, so NASA can always talk about how DC is the culmination of work that THEY did many years ago.  It’s not quite as easy to say that about Dragon and CST-100, although in certain ways it could be said.  At least some tech in those is based on previous NASA projects.  DC would reflect well on NASA in the public’s eye I think, as well as Congress’s eye.
3)   Although it probably wouldn’t take off at KSC, it would land there and be processed there, which helps validate NASA’s multi-use Spaceport concept. 

I think there are much better reasons for the evaluation team to choose DC.

1.  Lower reentry accelerations so DC can play a lifeboat role in present and future NASA operations.
2.  1000-mile crossrange to give DC a greater landing flexibility, again for DC's lifeboat role.  It can get down more quickly (many runway choices) and shave hours off the time it takes to get a crew member to a hospital.
3.  Non-toxic propellants allow immediate crew egress at a public airport, again for a possible lifeboat role. 

Reasons that don't officially get evaluated, but might enter the evaluator's mind:

A.  Unmanned DC has a lot of potential.  It's a flexible robotic vehicle that can stay on-orbit for long periods of time.  Its non-toxic, storable propellant gives it some interesting mission capabilities.  It might be a great vehicle down the line as NASA forays into satellite repair and refueling.

B.  Manned DC has a lot of potential as well.  Priced competitively, it's a more attractive option for a lot of commercial applications, and NASA is trying to seed that market.

C.  Finally getting a lifting body into service would be a big technology risk reduction for future NASA-developed vehicles, assuming NASA ever again finds itself in the position of developing a lifting body vehicle.  There's a realistic possibility that NASA may be out of that role.

Regarding your #3, why do you think DC wouldn't launch at KSC?

Offline Confusador

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #97 on: 07/24/2012 08:23 am »
Regarding your #3, why do you think DC wouldn't launch at KSC?

So far I haven't seen any indication that they intend to use a different pad for crewed Atlas V launches; it looks like they're just going to make whatever modifications they need at SLC-41.  So, at the Cape: yes. At KSC: no.

It gets a little bit grey because I suspect that everyone will be using the crew quarters and medical facilities at KSC to prepare for flight, but that's a different topic.

Offline Jim

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #98 on: 07/24/2012 12:11 pm »
I don’t know about that.  In certain ways it might be the most dangerous vehicle, in that it has an exposed TPS in orbit.  But, that aside, I think it has a lot of support for a variety of reasons.

1)   It’s a reusable spaceplane that looks like a mini-space shuttle.  Many who aren’t well educated on such things view that as “high-tech” and “futuristic” in that it looks like an airplane.  Obviously the Shuttle taught us that perception isn’t necessarily reality.  But regardless, a mini-shuttle landing on the SLF at KSC is a visual effect that I think many in NASA, and even Congress would like to see with the Shuttle retired.
2)   It’s based on a NASA design, so NASA can always talk about how DC is the culmination of work that THEY did many years ago.  It’s not quite as easy to say that about Dragon and CST-100, although in certain ways it could be said.  At least some tech in those is based on previous NASA projects.  DC would reflect well on NASA in the public’s eye I think, as well as Congress’s eye.
3)   Although it probably wouldn’t take off at KSC, it would land there and be processed there, which helps validate NASA’s multi-use Spaceport concept. 

I think there are much better reasons for the evaluation team to choose DC.

1.  Lower reentry accelerations so DC can play a lifeboat role in present and future NASA operations.
2.  1000-mile crossrange to give DC a greater landing flexibility, again for DC's lifeboat role.  It can get down more quickly (many runway choices) and shave hours off the time it takes to get a crew member to a hospital.
3.  Non-toxic propellants allow immediate crew egress at a public airport, again for a possible lifeboat role. 

Reasons that don't officially get evaluated, but might enter the evaluator's mind:

A.  Unmanned DC has a lot of potential.  It's a flexible robotic vehicle that can stay on-orbit for long periods of time.  Its non-toxic, storable propellant gives it some interesting mission capabilities.  It might be a great vehicle down the line as NASA forays into satellite repair and refueling.

B.  Manned DC has a lot of potential as well.  Priced competitively, it's a more attractive option for a lot of commercial applications, and NASA is trying to seed that market.

C.  Finally getting a lifting body into service would be a big technology risk reduction for future NASA-developed vehicles, assuming NASA ever again finds itself in the position of developing a lifting body vehicle.  There's a realistic possibility that NASA may be out of that role.

Regarding your #3, why do you think DC wouldn't launch at KSC?

None of those "reasons" matter.  None of them are requirements, therefore have no bearing on the selection process
« Last Edit: 07/24/2012 12:12 pm by Jim »

Offline baldusi

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #99 on: 07/24/2012 02:36 pm »
...
A.  Unmanned DC has a lot of potential.  It's a flexible robotic vehicle that can stay on-orbit for long periods of time.  Its non-toxic, storable propellant gives it some interesting mission capabilities.  It might be a great vehicle down the line as NASA forays into satellite repair and refueling.
B.  Manned DC has a lot of potential as well.  Priced competitively, it's a more attractive option for a lot of commercial applications, and NASA is trying to seed that market.
C.  Finally getting a lifting body into service would be a big technology risk reduction for future NASA-developed vehicles, assuming NASA ever again finds itself in the position of developing a lifting body vehicle.  There's a realistic possibility that NASA may be out of that role.

None of those "reasons" matter.  None of them are requirements, therefore have no bearing on the selection process
Don't be bad Jim! I can put some other as good reasons:
D) Lifting bodies are cool.
E) Is a baby Shuttle.
F) It would use the KSC airstip to land, thus they could still put some cool escort trains.
G) The DC on an Atlas V looks amazing, like an arrow.
« Last Edit: 07/24/2012 02:37 pm by baldusi »

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