Author Topic: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread (Read 811293 times)

Oli · « **Reply #480 on:** 07/07/2013 03:31 pm »

Quote from: clongton

With or without NASA, Crewed Dragon will be deployed

And why is that? Is there a market for orbital human spaceflight that would support a commercial crew program?

If any of those programs is not supported by NASA anymore it will simply cease to exist.

clongton · « **Reply #481 on:** 07/07/2013 05:30 pm »

Quote from: Oli on 07/07/2013 03:31 pm

Quote from: clongton
With or without NASA, Crewed Dragon will be deployed

And why is that? Is there a market for orbital human spaceflight that would support a commercial crew program?

If any of those programs is not supported by NASA anymore it will simply cease to exist.

Because Commercial Crew is not necessary to justify crewed Dragon. Elon started SpaceX for the very specific purpose of going to Mars, with or without NASA. His original plans specifically excluded NASA. He signed on to NASA's commercial program because federal dollars, though not required at all, does speed things up. A commercial market for crewed Dragon is not required at all. It is Elon's spaceship, not NASA's or ours. It will fly with crew - with or without NASA.

Lars_J · « **Reply #482 on:** 07/07/2013 05:31 pm »

Quote from: clongton on 07/07/2013 12:30 pm

Cutting SpaceX will not stop Crewed Dragon from flying, but cutting either of the other 2 would, imo, be a death blow to that spacecraft.

So why should we support players who are unwilling to invest enough skin in the game? No, that's a recipe for repeating past failures. SpaceX is willing to do it, and should be rewarded for that.

A manned Dragon is no certainty - nor is it certain that it would happen on a schedule that would be helpful to ISS and NASA.

clongton · « **Reply #483 on:** 07/07/2013 05:35 pm »

Quote from: Lars_J on 07/07/2013 05:31 pm

A manned Dragon is no certainty -

Unless SpaceX shuts down, yes it is - absolutely. It is the entire reason that SpaceX exists. Crewed Dragon was conceptually designed first, and the Falcon 9 was subsequently designed to lift it to orbit.

Lars_J · « **Reply #484 on:** 07/07/2013 05:47 pm »

Quote from: clongton on 07/07/2013 05:35 pm

Quote from: Lars_J on 07/07/2013 05:31 pm
A manned Dragon is no certainty -

Unless SpaceX shuts down, yes it is - absolutely. It is the entire reason that SpaceX exists. Crewed Dragon was conceptually designed first, and the Falcon 9 was subsequently designed to lift it to orbit.

Citation? And it still means squat to ISS/NASA and the commercial crew program (the topic of this thread) if it takes too long. NASA can invest well, or throw more money after bad money.

A_M_Swallow · « **Reply #485 on:** 07/07/2013 05:48 pm »

Quote from: clongton on 07/07/2013 05:35 pm

Quote from: Lars_J on 07/07/2013 05:31 pm
A manned Dragon is no certainty -

Unless SpaceX shuts down, yes it is - absolutely. It is the entire reason that SpaceX exists. Crewed Dragon was conceptually designed first, and the Falcon 9 was subsequently designed to lift it to orbit.

A manned Dragon could be developed using SpaceX's own money. However it may not be compatible with the ISS. For instance it could berth with the Mars spaceship rather than dock.

Oli · « **Reply #486 on:** 07/07/2013 05:51 pm »

Quote from: clongton

Elon started SpaceX for the very specific purpose of going to Mars, with or without NASA.

You vastly overestimate Musk's fortune.

Chalmer · « **Reply #487 on:** 07/07/2013 05:57 pm »

In a cut down to 2 in CCtCap i think Dreamchaser will be cut. It only limped along with half funding, and i think NASA did that as appose to cutting it entirely last round was that they hoped for more money for next round, and have all three bids going all the way.

CST-100 on Atlas V, and Dragon on Falcon 9 will give NASA price competition and room for price negotiation, it will give two spacecraft on two different launch vehicles and will deliver an "Old" and "New" contractor.

I like Dreamchaser and would like to see it stay, but it feels like the obvious one to get cut. Nothing is certain though.

About SpaceX, and that they will develop Dragon anyway, I am not 100% convinced, like some of you are. At least not at the same speed of development as now. And i don't think it should be part of NASA's motivation for choosing anyway, so i consider the point moot.

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #488 on:** 07/07/2013 06:10 pm »

Quote from: Oli on 07/07/2013 05:51 pm

You vastly overestimate Musk's fortune.

Which is why his launch vehicles also serve a commercial market.

Oli · « **Reply #489 on:** 07/07/2013 06:23 pm »

^

Its about crewed dragon. I'm not convinced that $20m/seat will trigger big enough commercial demand to make its development worthwhile.

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #490 on:** 07/07/2013 06:40 pm »

Quote from: Oli on 07/07/2013 06:23 pm

^

Its about crewed dragon. I'm not convinced that $20m/seat will trigger big enough commercial demand to make its development worthwhile.

You are missing my point. Musk needs the crewed Dragon for his own goals as well. Because of that he would build it with our without NASA. He would finance that by launching commercial payloads of all kinds.

clongton · « **Reply #491 on:** 07/07/2013 06:55 pm »

Quote from: Oli on 07/07/2013 05:51 pm

Quote from: clongton
Elon started SpaceX for the very specific purpose of going to Mars, with or without NASA.

You vastly overestimate Musk's fortune.

And you vastly underestimate the man and have obviously never bothered to actually listen to what he has to say.

clongton · « **Reply #492 on:** 07/07/2013 07:02 pm »

Quote from: Lars_J on 07/07/2013 05:47 pm

Quote from: clongton on 07/07/2013 05:35 pm
Quote from: Lars_J on 07/07/2013 05:31 pm
A manned Dragon is no certainty -

Unless SpaceX shuts down, yes it is - absolutely. It is the entire reason that SpaceX exists. Crewed Dragon was conceptually designed first, and the Falcon 9 was subsequently designed to lift it to orbit.

Citation?

Elon's own statements, too many different times to try to list them. Go look them up.

Quote

And it still means squat to ISS/NASA

He never originally intended to include ISS or NASA. Again don't bother asking for citation. They are too numerous to list

Quote

and the commercial crew program

He doesn't care about the commercial crew program except to the extent that the additional funding helps the SpaceX Space Program.

Don't get me wrong, he is appreciative of the opportunity, but not because it serves commercial crew or NASA, but because it serves his own interests.

clongton · « **Reply #493 on:** 07/07/2013 07:06 pm »

Quote from: Elmar Moelzer on 07/07/2013 06:40 pm

Quote from: Oli on 07/07/2013 06:23 pm
^

Its about crewed dragon. I'm not convinced that $20m/seat will trigger big enough commercial demand to make its development worthwhile.
You are missing my point. Musk needs the crewed Dragon for his own goals as well. Because of that he would build it with our without NASA. He would finance that by launching commercial payloads of all kinds.

Completely correct. Commercial crew is "found money" along the way, nothing more.

clongton · « **Reply #494 on:** 07/07/2013 07:10 pm »

Quote from: Oli on 07/07/2013 06:23 pm

^

Its about crewed dragon. I'm not convinced that $20m/seat will trigger big enough commercial demand to make its development worthwhile.

It probably won't. But then he never needed it to begin with.
AFAIK, he isn't the one who initiated SpaceX participation in Commercial Cargo/Crew. NASA approached him and requested that he submit a bid. Elon has always had other plans for Dragon that didn't include NASA.

IRobot · « **Reply #495 on:** 07/07/2013 07:23 pm »

What bugs me is that Elon does not have enough personal fortune to go all the way to Mars but space enthusiasts like Paul Allen do. And despite Paul's investment in Stratolauncher, he is not putting much percentage of his fortune in it.

Chalmer · « **Reply #496 on:** 07/07/2013 07:26 pm »

Yes Musk want to go to Mars. But he also want to do it as cheaply and easy as possible, so when he can shift some of the cost of development, to NASA and even get a costumer out of it he will of cause do that.

If SpaceX get cut from the next round (which i don't think), i think that some of the progress made on crewed Dragon will be implemented on Cargo Dragon. But I'm skeptic about them continuing development of crewed Dragon.

Clongton, you seem sure they will because Musk want to go to Mars and he need crew transport for that. However they wont need that transport for a long while. They aren't quite ready to go there yet.

I think it is more likely that most, if not all, of the internal funds now used for development of crewed Dragon will go to other development efforts such as reusable F9, Raptor, MCT etc. In my mind at least, these efforts will bring him closer to Mars, then a crewed Dragon with no costumers sitting in the SpaceX hangar. Then later on, crewed Dragon development may start again.

clongton · « **Reply #497 on:** 07/07/2013 07:46 pm »

Quote from: Chalmer on 07/07/2013 07:26 pm

But I'm skeptic about them continuing development of crewed Dragon.

Clongton, you seem sure they will

Yup

Oli · « **Reply #498 on:** 07/07/2013 08:08 pm »

Quote from: clongton

And you vastly underestimate the man and have obviously never bothered to actually listen to what he has to say.

Actually you underestimate the man. I expect him to go to mars or whatever when there's a business case for it, not for his personal satisfaction. Also Musk is a marketing genius and all the delusional talk about Mars colonies etc. obviously serves a purpose. It certainly has its effect on you

Chalmer · « **Reply #499 on:** 07/07/2013 08:10 pm »

Quote from: clongton on 07/07/2013 07:46 pm

Quote from: Chalmer on 07/07/2013 07:26 pm
But I'm skeptic about them continuing development of crewed Dragon.

Clongton, you seem sure they will

Yup

I see my points pales in comparison with your self confidence