Author Topic: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread  (Read 811353 times)

Offline Chalmer

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1820 on: 09/17/2014 04:24 pm »
So I've been trying to figure out how the cctcap contract looks like. As far as i understand there are 3 parts.
1. Development part incl. one test flight to ISS
2. A "Services" part with 2-6 flight to ISS, which presumably will be flown after certification. This part is an optional extra that NASA can choose to exercise.
3. A Special Studies part. This part is probably not at big part of the award money.

I've tried to make an overview and calculate how big the different parts of the contracts are based on number released earlier for transportation to LEO on Spacex and Boeing rockets/spacecraft by Bigelow. Admittedly I have no basis to estimate the size of the Special Studies part, so i have assigned $50 Mill. ad hoc to both SpaceX and Boeing.

Table attached via image.

Offline TomH

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1821 on: 09/17/2014 04:30 pm »
So the question is what did SNC do wrong to get no joy from the CCtCAP selection committee?

I'm disappointed too, yet in spite of our thinking it's political, there may well be technical considerations we aren't thinking of. We're not at the Gravity stage yet, but the day is coming when debris is the major obstacle to space flight. The ISS cupola already has 2 MMOD strikes. A fully exposed TPS covering the entire ship is far more vulnerable than a heat shield fully covered on both sides. There is more debris around ISS than anywhere else except perhaps the Chinese kill zone. In that ISS is the destination, perhaps they decided the exposed TPS was too risky.

(Edit-yea, 1000th post-yippee!)
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 04:52 pm by TomH »

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1822 on: 09/17/2014 04:37 pm »
So the question is what did SNC do wrong to get no joy from the CCtCAP selection committee?

I'm disappointed too, yet in spite of our thinking it's political, there may well be technical considerations we aren't thinking of. We're not at the Gravity stage yet, but the day is coming when debris is the major obstacle to space flight. The ISS cupola already has 2 MMOD strikes. A fully exposed TPS covering the entire ship is far more vulnerable than a heat shield fully covered on both sides. There is more debris around ISS than anywhere else except perhaps the Chinese kill zone. In that ISS is the destination, perhaps they decided the exposed TPS was too risky.

(Edit-yea, 1000th post-full member-yippee!)
Congrats on the 1G mark! :) I'd like to see the X-37B TPS after such long duration flights as a baseline....
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 04:39 pm by Rocket Science »
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Offline watermod

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1823 on: 09/17/2014 04:47 pm »
As a taxpayer I see a government entity making another large purchase with much higher costs with money they didn't earn.   If the Boeing costs were much closer to the SpaceX ones it wouldn't traumatize me as much.
It's the same problem I have with the Air Force's block buy and every other branch of government easily spending money earned by others.    I am not Libertarian  but this constant poor judgment with money is driving me that way.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 04:48 pm by watermod »

Offline Brovane

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1824 on: 09/17/2014 04:52 pm »
As a taxpayer I see a government entity making another large purchase with much higher costs with money they didn't earn.   If the Boeing costs were much closer to the SpaceX ones it wouldn't traumatize me as much.
It's the same problem I have with the Air Force's block buy and every other branch of government easily spending money earned by others.    I am not Libertarian  but this constant poor judgment with money is driving me that way.

If you are going to select two providers and two launch vehicles, what other Launch Vehicle would you have had selected besides the Falcon 9? 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1825 on: 09/17/2014 04:58 pm »

Exactly.  At least this appears to be a rational decision made by a more or less rational process.  If you take the requirement for independent access seriously (as I think it should be taken) then you will need to fund a non-lowest bidder, and confidence in the solution working will be a strong criterium. 

So I can appreciate this decision just as I can appreciate a Supreme Court decision, whether I agree with it or not.  At least they took a solid look at all the available evidence, and then decided.  Compared with deciding by legislative and politically driven fiat, that alone is a huge improvement.

Maybe the real problem is at a higher level, in the requirements set forth by NASA and Congress.  If the goal is truly just to obtain the cheapest, quickest option for near-term replacement of Soyuz and a limited ISS role lasting a few years, then going with a low risk, low tech solution makes sense.  But from a policy perspective, does it make sense in the long run to no longer value innovation and technological progress, or to discount any potential to evolve beyond the ISS role?  IMO the human spaceflight program sort of died when this country lost the will to follow through on ambitious efforts to push the boundaries.  Thankfully Elon Musk is working as much as he can to do just that (I'm sure I'm not the only one envious that he has the bucks and the talent to make his vision a reality!) but of course in a very measured, pragmatic, evolutionary manner.  The nation unfortunately does not have the will or desire to make a NASP or VentureStar type breakthrough a reality. 
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 05:00 pm by vt_hokie »

Offline TomH

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1826 on: 09/17/2014 04:59 pm »
I'd like to see the X-37B TPS after such long duration flights as a baseline....

Agreed, however it doesn't fly to ISS. The more craft that visit ISS, the more little junk there is in that orb. Having the exposed TPS would mean visual inspections including stills and video at each arrival and departure. DC had no Canada Arm and boom with which to inspect itself. Then you have the embarassing situation if you do find a strike causing them to return to ISS for safe harbor and the program is cancelled after that. Everyone would say, "After all the problems STS had with tiles, why did they go with that system again?" I loved DC, but maybe using a protected heat shield is just safer in this debris filled environment.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 05:00 pm by TomH »

Online edkyle99

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1827 on: 09/17/2014 05:06 pm »
So the question is what did SNC do wrong to get no joy from the CCtCAP selection committee?
It might not have been about SNC doing anything wrong.  The competition may simply have lined up better with what NASA's decision makers wanted. 

Still, there were some issues.  SNC was behind the others, due in part to less funding over time.  It was still working on aerodynamic testing, an effort that was set back by its crash landing (which helped remind everyone of the "hot" landings associated with lifting bodies).  There seemed to be something happening with propulsion, with a recent switch away from hybrid motor technology.  SpaceX and Boeing were way ahead on avionics compared to SNC by all appearances, so that would have been a big area of development effort (and a potential schedule hog).  Finally, having one capsule and one lifting body would have required maintenance and operation of both landing sites (runways, etc.) in more than one location and of recovery force options for capsule abort water landings.  Now they just have to worry about capsule landings.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 05:07 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline llanitedave

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1828 on: 09/17/2014 05:07 pm »

And yes, I have trouble getting excited over reestablishing the routine access to LEO that I grew up with in the 1980's and 1990's, except with smaller craft and fewer people. That seems to be the extent of the ambition of the CST-100.

LEO access was NEVER "routine".
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1829 on: 09/17/2014 05:11 pm »
I'd like to see the X-37B TPS after such long duration flights as a baseline....

Agreed, however it doesn't fly to ISS. The more craft that visit ISS, the more little junk there is in that orb. Having the exposed TPS would mean visual inspections including stills and video at each arrival and departure. DC had no Canada Arm and boom with which to inspect itself. Then you have the embarassing situation if you do find a strike causing them to return to ISS for safe harbor and the program is cancelled after that. Everyone would say, "After all the problems STS had with tiles, why did they go with that system again?" I loved DC, but maybe using a protected heat shield is just safer in this debris filled environment.
The X-37B TPS is an "evolved" version of Shuttle's TPS and looked pretty clean from what they let us see...
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Offline Razvan

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1830 on: 09/17/2014 05:12 pm »
Unfortunately, we have to live with this reality for a while. This sad situation has been created by the lack of competition on the market and the continued lack of interest from the side of the only adjudicated supplier - able to enforce its own terms - to improve their products both technologically and commercially, and it may be stopped by the merge of a strong market, abundant in competitive offers for reliable services within this field of interest.

NASA must not be condemned for trying to secure safety first and only after that the better commercial terms. SpaceX and other competitors, once certified and holding reliable, well proven products and services will then be able to induce the desired change into the market.

Offline Oli

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1831 on: 09/17/2014 05:13 pm »
I'd like to see the X-37B TPS after such long duration flights as a baseline....

Agreed, however it doesn't fly to ISS. The more craft that visit ISS, the more little junk there is in that orb. Having the exposed TPS would mean visual inspections including stills and video at each arrival and departure. DC had no Canada Arm and boom with which to inspect itself. Then you have the embarassing situation if you do find a strike causing them to return to ISS for safe harbor and the program is cancelled after that. Everyone would say, "After all the problems STS had with tiles, why did they go with that system again?" I loved DC, but maybe using a protected heat shield is just safer in this debris filled environment.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the inspection of the Shuttle's heat shield done because something could have hit it during launch? Dreamchaser would have been on top so no probs there.

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1832 on: 09/17/2014 05:18 pm »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the inspection of the Shuttle's heat shield done because something could have hit it during launch? Dreamchaser would have been on top so no probs there.


Well, the MMOD risk would certainly be higher for DC, that I must admit.  Consider that the vehicle has more surface area, with exposed fragile aero surfaces and TPS.  The capsules will have less exposure, with a more compact shape and with the main heat shield somewhat protected on-orbit by the expendable trunk. 
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 05:19 pm by vt_hokie »

Offline SoundForesight

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1833 on: 09/17/2014 05:33 pm »
I also posted this in "SNC Dream Chaser DISCUSSION Thread." If this is a faux pas, please excuse me.

I don't see this statement on either SNC's or SNC Space Systems' web site for press releases, but KRNV, a Reno, Nevada TV station reports the following as a statement issued by SNC:
http://www.mynews4.com/news/story/Sierra-Nevada-Corporation-misses-NASA-contract/LegXqlm0UUGPYgh2pcrH9A.cspx

"Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) recognizes that NASA has made a selection of an alternative provider(s) in the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability Contract (CCtCap) competition. SNC is planning to have a debrief session with NASA soon to obtain the source selection statement and decision rationale. When this process is complete and after a thorough evaluation, SNC will elaborate further on its future options regarding the NASA Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contract decision and the Dream Chaser program. Due to this pending activity SNC will have no further public statement at this time. We will be providing further information at a later date.

While SNC is disappointed NASA did not select its Dream Chaser® Space System for the CCtCap contract, SNC commends NASA for initiating the effort and is privileged to have been part of returning human space flight to the United States through our awarded contracts in all other phases of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program over the past four years."
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 05:34 pm by SoundForesight »
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Offline vt_hokie

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1834 on: 09/17/2014 05:36 pm »
Does not sound encouraging...brings back the familiar feelings of seeing similar statements at the end of the X-33 program, but knowing it was likely over.  (I wasn't even working on the program then, but I was still rooting for it and hoping the military might keep it alive.)
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 06:03 pm by vt_hokie »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1835 on: 09/17/2014 05:37 pm »
SNC failing to get media releases out properly again.

Meanwhile:
Charles A. Lurio ‏@TheLurioReport  6m
CCtCap rumor1: Was to be SpaceX/SNC at about $5b total until the announcement delay about 2 wks ago. No disrespect Boeing but what happened?

You don't say!
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Online ugordan

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1836 on: 09/17/2014 05:43 pm »
Charles A. Lurio @TheLurioReport  ·  5m

CCtCap rumor2: ULA stunned at Boeing selection-based on proposal, had concluded dead in water. Again:No
disrespect Boeing but what happened?

Offline Jarnis

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1837 on: 09/17/2014 05:50 pm »
Bought and paid-for politicians busy at work. US system is fairly broken and the fact that it is very often shrugged off as business-as-usual looks pretty funny from an outsider perspective.

At least SpaceX got the contract as well, so it is not a total disaster.

SNC will almost certainly protest if the (yet-to-be-(re)written?) selection statement will give any opening for one.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 05:50 pm by Jarnis »

Offline Star One

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1838 on: 09/17/2014 05:59 pm »

So the question is what did SNC do wrong to get no joy from the CCtCAP selection committee?

IMO? Boeing's continued involvement was critical to stop Congress defunding the whole program for being 'without credibility'. Not funding SpaceX, a company actually already flying the vehicle to the ISS, would instantly fail the laugh test and not even SpaceX's most vituperative Congressional enemy would want to be associated with such a decision. Only two vehicles were going to be funded. The rest is just math.

I agree they needed a familiar and I would say trusted name to congress onboard to keep them on side, and to stop them pulling the plug on the program in a fit of nervous worry over its prospects without such a reassuring name attached.

Offline mijoh

Re: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1839 on: 09/17/2014 06:03 pm »
Not a total disaster, but very easily could have been. I think SpaceX was lucky to get in at all. The fix is definitely in and the only reason SpaceX made the cut, instead of just rewarding the whole thing to Boeing is optics. It would have caused an uproar if the whole deal was rewarded to Boeing straight out. Can't be too obvious with the graft. Too bad DC got the shyt end of the stick here. The have a very nice forward looking vehicle that hopefully will get put to use somewhere.

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