CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread

[erioladastra]

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2012/release-20120801.html

It looks like your friday prediction was a good one, Wayne.

surprise surprise, Wayne was right, what it must be like to be right more than not

And those speculating (e.g. in L2) about ties to stock markets and political wheelings....

[BrightLight]

I just hope Dream Chaser doesn't miss out.

Those of us with a sense of style agree.

[HammerD]

I just hope Dream Chaser doesn't miss out.

Those of us with a sense of style agree.

The only reason I'm not bullish on the Dream Chaser is because it is winged design (kinda similar to Shuttle).  Been there and done that.   Of course you could say the same about the capsule designs   So actually I'm not really sure.  50/50 here.

You could also argue that SpaceX doesn't need full funding as they have already proven themselves with flights.  So why pay someone who can/will do it anyway? On the other hand it has less risk, potentially.

Blue Origin could be the dark knight here - with them being so secretive who knows ?

Anyway, I am sure all of us will be eagerly waiting the results and maybe more entertainingly the fall out of the results

Should be an interesting weekend with MSL's arrival at Mars this weekend too!  (And I have Monday off work

[yg1968]

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2012/release-20120801.html

It looks like your friday prediction was a good one, Wayne.

surprise surprise, Wayne was right, what it must be like to be right more than not

And those speculating (e.g. in L2) about ties to stock markets and political wheelings....

Except that the announcement will be made before the market closes... So much for that theory...

[Alpha Control]

And those speculating (e.g. in L2) about ties to stock markets and political wheelings....

The political angle of a late Friday news release is a valid one. It's been done.

So, Friday morning! I know we'll all be glued to this site & NASA TV for this!

My hope is for Dream Chaser (Full), and Boeing and SpaceX, with no preference as to the remaining full or partial.

[vt_hokie]

I just hope Dream Chaser doesn't miss out.

Those of us with a sense of style agree.

Fingers crossed - DreamChaser is certainly the one I'm rooting for! 

And even from a more objective standpoint, how many different versions of a capsule design does the cash-strapped agency need?  Having DC and a capsule would make more strategic sense for an agency looking to get the most diverse set of features/capabilities out of its limited budget.

[yg1968]

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2012/release-20120801.html

It looks like your friday prediction was a good one, Wayne.

For the record, people that have L2 have know since Monday that the announcement would likely be on Friday because of a post on L2. L2 is fun to have!

[mmeijeri]

Having DC and a capsule would make more strategic sense for an agency looking to get the most diverse set of features/capabilities out of its limited budget.

Perhaps, but not if you want the highest probability of having at least two functioning and reliable systems. And that may be closer to the official criteria than what you mentioned.

[neilh]

I just hope Dream Chaser doesn't miss out.

Those of us with a sense of style agree.

Fingers crossed - DreamChaser is certainly the one I'm rooting for! 

And even from a more objective standpoint, how many different versions of a capsule design does the cash-strapped agency need?  Having DC and a capsule would make more strategic sense for an agency looking to get the most diverse set of features/capabilities out of its limited budget.

Is diversity part of the selection criteria?

[vt_hokie]

Is diversity part of the selection criteria?

Maybe not officially, though it was certainly part of the spirit of this "commercial" initiative which is quickly becoming more of a conventional contract award.

[sdsds]

If this must become a predictions thread, please predict the "effectiveness" and "confidence" ratings which you feel will be given for Technical Approach and Business Information.

I predict Boeing's will be the only proposal that receives a blue or green (very high or high) effectiveness rating for both technical and business, AND "high" confidence for both.

[yg1968]

I just hope Dream Chaser doesn't miss out.

Those of us with a sense of style agree.

Fingers crossed - DreamChaser is certainly the one I'm rooting for! 

And even from a more objective standpoint, how many different versions of a capsule design does the cash-strapped agency need?  Having DC and a capsule would make more strategic sense for an agency looking to get the most diverse set of features/capabilities out of its limited budget.

Is diversity part of the selection criteria?

It was for CCDev-2. The selection statement specifically says that NASA decided to choose a lifting body over a capsule partly for the purpose of diversifying their portfolio.  McAlister had also stated in a CCDev-2 pre-award conference that diversity was a factor. I am not sure how relevant it will be for CCiCap, however.

[Wayne Hale]

I used to guess about the shuttle landing weather, too.

NASA doesn't pay much attention to the stock market, but they like to make big announcements on Friday (generally later in the day I must say) so that people have the weekend to think it over before reacting.  Of course, Congress usually takes Friday off so they won't be there to react.

Finally, Gerst will make the best possible decision, but like everyone he has bosses.  No smart person makes a big decision without getting his boss's opinion.  Its subtle, but yes, their opinion really does weigh into the final decision.  If the 'boss' is adamant in opposition to your (preliminary) decision, you have three choices - change your boss's mind (good luck), sign your retirement papers, or change your decision. 

[oiorionsbelt]

  If the 'boss' is adamant in opposition to your (preliminary) decision, you have three choices - change your boss's mind (good luck), sign your retirement papers, or change your decision. 

Sounds as though it's not really Gerst's decision.

[kirghizstan]

I just hope Dream Chaser doesn't miss out.

I love how chris says things like this when he has to know the results by now.

[marsavian]

Liberty and Dragon to get full awards with DC and CST-100 fighting over the partial, leaning towards DC as CST-100 looks superfluous against Dragon and Orionlite.

[Prober]

would be fun if Blue Origin (little info out there) comes in and gets an award.   That would be a shocker.

Anyhow I hope the "cleansed" list of companies comes out.

[kirghizstan]

How about we just start a poll thread of the choices.  It won't let me for some reason but here are the options I would allow

Full - DC, Dragon; Half - CST
Full - DC, Dragon; Half - Liberty
Full - CST, Dragon; Half - DC
Full - CST, Dragon; Half - Liberty
Full - Liberty, Dragon; Half - CST
Full - Liberty, Dragon; Half - DC
Full - CST, DC; Half - Dragon
Full - CST, DC; Half - Liberty
Full - CST, Liberty; Half - Dragon
Full - CST, Liberty; Half - DC
Full - DC, Liberty; Half - Dragon
Full - DC, Liberty; Half - CST
Other (please post)

[sdsds]

There's a slight variant on the "Sign your retirement papers" option: don't sign your retirement papers. Admittedly this variant might result in the same employment status!

The only real difference might who gets involved in the post-mortem assessment.
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/oig/hq/

[jongoff]

How about we just start a poll thread of the choices.  It won't let me for some reason but here are the options I would allow

Full - DC, Dragon; Half - CST
Full - DC, Dragon; Half - Liberty
Full - CST, Dragon; Half - DC
Full - CST, Dragon; Half - Liberty
Full - Liberty, Dragon; Half - CST
Full - Liberty, Dragon; Half - DC
Full - CST, DC; Half - Dragon
Full - CST, DC; Half - Liberty
Full - CST, Liberty; Half - Dragon
Full - CST, Liberty; Half - DC
Full - DC, Liberty; Half - Dragon
Full - DC, Liberty; Half - CST
Other (please post)

Seconded...

...Actually, let me try to set one up.

~Jon