CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread

[abaddon]

To cover all bases, it will suck if both are late and over-budget.

Of course, the likeliest result is that Congress will continue to under-fund Commercial Crew as compared to NASA's requests and they will both be late...

[Malderi]

Just a quick note: without the rest of the documentation, we have no idea where the split is in the difference between SpaceX's and Boeing's numbers. It's totally possible that they both are the same per-flight/seat costs, but Boeing requires more development money. Or they both require the same development money but Boeing is more expensive on a per-seat basis, or Boeing is exactly the same on both but the extra difference is because of Atlas V launch costs (and potentially cost risk associated with a re-engined first stage). Or maybe they're both at the same costs but Boeing will have a significantly higher profit margin!

Won't know any of that until the docs are released, so speculating about how it's all Boeing bloat or whatever is fairly premature.

[GalacticIntruder]

There was a mention about trying to open LEO up to more people, ie non-NASA, with this so called commercial crew. Well we know BA just priced themselves out of that domain. You either buy Soyuz or Dragon.

[king1999]

SpaceX has a head start that accounts for the $1.6 billion difference, IMO.  That ISS cargo head start was provided by previous NASA funding to the tune of, what, a couple billion dollars?

Er, no.  $400 million for SpaceX (and roughly the same for Orbital).

Let's please not try and handwave this away.  Boeing is simply more expensive than SpaceX.

SpaceX won $278 million for COTS and $1.6 billion for CRS.  They used that money in part to develop the basic Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 v1.1, the factory and test facilities.  That groundwork is directly applied now to Commercial Crew.  It is a well funded head start not given Boeing's CST-100, which is why Boeing needs more money now.

 - Ed Kyle

This is nonsense, considering Boeing got all the money for previous space programs, including the cancelled Constellation, in the billions. The CST-100 is obvious related to the Orion, for example. You can't count one without counting the other.

[JasonAW3]

I wonder if SNC is going to continue with the Dreamchaser or just close up house on it?

I suspect Dreamchaser will die a slow, drawn-out death.  SNC will talk about how they'll continue the program but at a much slower pace.  Over time, little progress will be made, and in a few years it will be formally cancelled.

Actually, did a bit of research.  Don't think that's actually likley afterall.  The Japanese and Euopeans are VERY interested in the Dream Chaser.  JAXA is a ctually one of their partners.  So without NASA to compete with, I think that this bird may fly sooner rather than later or never.

[darkenfast]

4.2 billion for Boeing and 2.6 billion for SpaceX to do the same thing.  Pretty much sums up Oldspace vs Newspace.  Business as usual.

[Ben the Space Brit]

@JasonAW3,

Dreamchaser flying on Ariane-5 or -6? It's not a bad dream to have.

[deskpro590]

Well for one, I'm excited that we have a decision.  Would have been neat to see DreamChaser, but I think Boeing and SpaceX will do well.  I'm tired of us hitching rides on Soyuz.  2017 can't get here fast enough!  Congrats to SpaceX and Boeing!  Murica!

[theonlyspace]

Very strange..Dream chaser has flowwn their protype with more flights soon,,,They have the orbital vehicle half built..All Space X has is a mock up.and Boeing just mock up also. Yet NASA  thinks they can fly sooner JUST  more wasteful thinking backward thinking.

[mlindner]

Boeing is going to get extremely bad press over costing nearly double the cost of SpaceX. I can't really describe how pis*ed I am about how much more money they're getting. Boeing has a digital spacecraft with no hardware built. Rather than a flying spacecraft on one side and a flying prototype on the other.

I'm hoping that justice is served somehow at some point in the future. This is nearly criminal.

[king1999]

Very strange..Dream chaser has flowwn their protype with more flights soon,,,They have the orbital vehicle half built..All Space X has is a mock up.and Boeing just mock up also. Yet NASA  thinks they can fly sooner JUST  more wasteful thinking backward thinking.

SpaceX showed real flight hardware, not mock-up.

[Brovane]

Very strange..Dream chaser has flowwn their protype with more flights soon,,,They have the orbital vehicle half built..All Space X has is a mock up.and Boeing just mock up also. Yet NASA  thinks they can fly sooner JUST  more wasteful thinking backward thinking.

Did you miss the Dragon Capsulev1 going to the ISS?  The SpaceX Crew Dragon is built on the technology being proven by current Dragon Capsule.  Also I suspect the Dream Chaser bid was to use the Atlas-V rocket which is the same as Boeing's Capsule.  By going with SpaceX they two different launch vehicles. 

[Helodriver]

Very strange..Dream chaser has flowwn their protype with more flights soon,,,They have the orbital vehicle half built..All Space X has is a mock up.and Boeing just mock up also. Yet NASA  thinks they can fly sooner JUST  more wasteful thinking backward thinking.

SpaceX showed real flight hardware, not mock-up.

Ditto. I was there and had quality hands on time. Its real.

[mr_magoo]

I find it a bit odd that the WSJ and Forbes are touting Boeing winning the "prize" when really they are just providing the same service and charging the government more.    I thought that ideologically... oh nevermind.

[deskpro590]

On Bolden bringing up Orion, I can see that as intended for Congress.  I think the general public will confuse CTS-100 with Orion though......

[Herb Schaltegger]

It's amusing to me how many LIKES there are in this thread, and which posts get them. Near as I can see, the harder someone bashes Boeing and/or the more loudly the proclamation of "the fix" or "backroom deals", the more LIKES the post garners.

Not very surprising, sad to say.

[saliva_sweet]

I, personally, am disgusted by what I heard during the announcement and the teleconference. Not because SpaceX got less (I'm biased for SpaceX, I'm aware of that), they did fine. But how SNC got massively screwed over by corruption. Massive award to Boeing without justification given or about to be given in the near future. Probably some kind of rationale will be made public in the future, focusing on safety and the ETA crash no doubt), but that will likely be a sad joke.

[AnalogMan]

That "special studies" award amount, I wonder if Boeing can put that money toward qualifying a new US engine for Atlas V. Nice way of getting NASA to bail ULA out of a jam if that's what happens.

From the RFP (Amendment 1), "Special Studies" include the following types of activities - there is an overall $150m cap.

B.5 SPECIAL STUDIES SERVICES (IDIQ) (CLIN 003)

In accordance with Attachment J-03, Contract Performance Work Statement, the task ordering procedures and other terms and conditions in the contract, the Contractor shall perform special studies, test and analyses, as initiated by written direction from the Contracting Officer.  IDIQ tasks may include performing technical, cost, schedule and risk assessments for potential new or changes to existing requirements, as identified by the Government, for their impact on the Contractor’s design, schedule and cost/price as it relates to CCtCap or life cycle activities; performing additional analyses, modeling, and/or tests of hardware or software to provide further confidence and understanding of robustness of design and advance planning, feasibility or trade studies for development or certification activities.  These IDIQ tasks do not include any work necessary to accomplish the requirements under CLIN 001 and CLIN 002.  The Contractor shall utilize the fully burdened labor rates shown in Table B.5.1, Special Studies Labor Rates when proposing to a Government Request for Task Order Proposal.  The maximum potential total value of all Special Studies IDIQ tasks which may be ordered under this contract is $150 million.

Notes:

CLIN - Contract Line Item Number

• CLIN 001 Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDTE)/Certification (Core Contract)
• CLIN 002 Post Certification Missions

[DanielW]

On Bolden bringing up Orion, I can see that as intended for Congress.  I think the general public will confuse CTS-100 with Orion though......

Funny you should say that. A friend of mine is an engineer on the 787 and he confuses CTS-100 with Orion. Or did until I set him straight.

[nadreck]

So, we have confirmation that as far as NASA can actually fund it, SpaceX and Boeing both get to go the distance.

I expect press releases from both companies with some more details on their plans. However, the special studies do interest me and I think that these may well be "targets of opportunity" to certify other aspects of the plans that weren't  part of the actual RFP. Such as a CST-100 on some other launcher, ditto with Dragon, conducting a manned mission for NASA with a different target than ISS, being the lifecraft of the ISS and ISS + or ISS successor.

We know that SpaceX has plans of their own for human activity in space that are different from NASA's and both companies would, I am sure, welcome other opportunities to launch manned missions for other parties.