CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread

[Star One]

If Liberty wins, there will be real justification for accusations of favoritism. They've never developed a launch vehicle before, and picking them violates every principle of trying to get fast, domestic access to LEO.

Akin's law:

39. The three keys to keeping a new manned space program affordable and on schedule:
       1)  No new launch vehicles.
       2)  No new launch vehicles.
       3)  Whatever you do, don't decide to develop any new launch vehicles.

http://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html

As far as everyone else, well, I think they have decent proposals (though it'd be weird if Excalibur wins).

EDIT:this has nothing to do with fanboy-ism. ATK continues to /lie/ about blackzones on the existing launch vehicles. They are a bad actor.

Playing devil’s advocate here but couldn't you equally apply those laws to the SLS if you wanted to go along that line of thinking and that's still pressing ahead. So there is nothing to say the same will not happen with ATK?

[yg1968]

Also, on the CCDev / CCP front, I wrote this story that I hope is a just-the-facts guide to what's happened so far, plus what will happen:

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/20/12840538-follow-the-money-in-the-commercial-space-race

Thanks. A lot of good quotes from Ed Mango in that article. He mentions that the CCiCap will use funding from FY 2012, 2013 and 2014. That is not unexpected but it was never made clear before if it would include FY2014 funding or not. Also, the fact than the awards might be less than the expected $300M to $500M is interesting. There might be a lot more optional milestones than expected.

I am guessing that the awards will be about $300-350M, $300-350M and $150-175M which is about the funding expected from FY 2012 and FY 2013. The funding for FY 2014 could end up being optional milestones.

[wjbarnett]

Also, on the CCDev / CCP front, I wrote this story that I hope is a just-the-facts guide to what's happened so far, plus what will happen:

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/20/12840538-follow-the-money-in-the-commercial-space-race

Thank you Alan for writing this excellent, comprehensive review of the NASA commercial programs. No doubt some details are not possible to include, but its a great summary for the public that needs to see/understand that NASA and HSF are not already 'out of business'.

[Chris Bergin]

What did you expect from someone who wrote that commentary as a "response to a series by NBC News' Jay Barbree" and is working on a book about SpaceX?

Wow, just read through that op-ed myself. It is a shame, as the argument can be made for SpaceX, and so easily, but for them to take on THE most seasoned space flight journalist with that fluffy, almost sickly, love story of an op-ed is not going to wash with the doubters.

And I'm getting really sick of Dragon being compared to Shuttle. "It's so much cheaper and safer, puppies and kittens..." Noooo, don't do that! It was counter productive if anything.

The best thing, the BEST THING, these op-eds could do is to embrace the fact they had a bunch of failures to start off with and they fought back to the point of C2+. Success out of failure is a great and admirably angle.

They need to stop making them out as some sort of Space Camp group of teenagers who have never tasted failure, with a spacecraft that's the BIG ALTERATIVE to big bad NASA, because nothing makes a SpaceX fan look like a moron than when they use that "Woo, SpaceX cool. Boo, NASA" attitude.

Yeah, not an update, but someone posted THAT as an update on here.

[Chris Bergin]

Also, on the CCDev / CCP front, I wrote this story that I hope is a just-the-facts guide to what's happened so far, plus what will happen:

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/20/12840538-follow-the-money-in-the-commercial-space-race

Thank God for facts I needed that after getting annoyed by the other article!

I could put my hand up on the SLS part (the hardware representation) but I know it's aimed at a wider audience and I'm not going to start telling Sir Alan of Boyle what to write!

[Lars_J]

What did you expect from someone who wrote that commentary as a "response to a series by NBC News' Jay Barbree" and is working on a book about SpaceX?

Wow, just read through that op-ed myself. It is a shame, as the argument can be made for SpaceX, and so easily, but for them to take on THE most seasoned space flight journalist with that fluffy, almost sickly, love story of an op-ed is not going to wash with the doubters.

Chris, I guess I'm more shocked that this piece warrants such a reaction from you, when the original piece by Mr. Barbree apparently did not. (Unless I missed it) Please don't stare yourself blind on the "THE most seasoned space flight journalist" label. Appeal to authority only goes so far.

Was this a great opinion piece? No, it certainly could have been more even-handed. (and this is coming from a SpaceX 'fan') But it was an understandable reaction. At least a contrasting view was aired on the same news site.

Attempting to link ATK to Challenger is a low blow. But so is attempting to equate SpaceX to Apollo 1.

[Chris Bergin]

What did you expect from someone who wrote that commentary as a "response to a series by NBC News' Jay Barbree" and is working on a book about SpaceX?

Wow, just read through that op-ed myself. It is a shame, as the argument can be made for SpaceX, and so easily, but for them to take on THE most seasoned space flight journalist with that fluffy, almost sickly, love story of an op-ed is not going to wash with the doubters.

Chris, I guess I'm more shocked that this piece warrants such a reaction from you, when the original piece by Mr. Barbree apparently did not. (Unless I missed it) Please don't stare yourself blind on the "THE most seasoned space flight journalist" label. Appeal to authority only goes so far.

Was this a great opinion piece? No, it certainly could have been more even-handed. (and this is coming from a SpaceX 'fan') But it was an understandable reaction. At least a contrasting view was aired on the same platform.

I can only comment on what's put in front of me, and that one was.....so I reacted.

[kirghizstan]

mr bolye's statement that "The initial rocket flights would be powered by shuttle-style RS-25 engines, plus an updated Saturn-style J-2X for the upper stage, plus an extended version of the solid-rocket boosters that were used on the space shuttle. " is wrong with regards to the j-2x as we all know, but a decent article for those who know little to nothing about what is going on at NASA

[beancounter]

Got to say that this is an 'Update' thread and all I've read through the last pages are discussion which has it's own thread.  Came looking for updates, not discussion.  Post of the article links may be update but nothing else.  Does anyone have any others?
Cheers.

[Chris Bergin]

Yeah, it's a bit of a fail as an update thread and I may change the thread title to reflect.

We'll be able to start an actua update thread per the CCiCAP awards.

[Lars_J]

Speaking of CCiCAP, has there been any word on when the awards are going to be announced? I thought it would happen last week, but I was clearly wrong...

[yg1968]

The update thread on L2 has more up to date information on CCiCap. But we are not allowed to share it...

[Confusador]

Speaking of CCiCAP, has there been any word on when the awards are going to be announced? I thought it would happen last week, but I was clearly wrong...

I don't know what's on L2, but Wayne Hale has suggested Friday:

July is slipping away with no NASA awards for CCiCap. Rumor says 30 or 31, but NASA likes Fridays so I'm betting on 8/3. But I'm an optimist

[QuantumG]

Guessing the date of the announcement may be easier than guessing the substance of it, but it's still pointless guessing. Just wait.

[Chris Bergin]

Converted into a discussion thread.

A new discussion thread, and a new UPDATE thread will be created after the CCiCAP announcement.

[uko]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2012/07/31/commercial-crew-announcement-this-week/#more-41471
Nice speculation here about the awards:
"Charles Lurio of The Lurio Report has emailed me saying that he has heard from a very reliable source that NASA will announce the next round of commercial crew funding on Thursday or Friday."
"I had heard from a source during the NewSpace 2012 Conference that NASA’s announcement had been delayed from July because White House officials are not happy with one of the awards. It’s not clear precisely what that means, but speculation has focused on the possibility of ATK receiving an award for its Ares I-derived Liberty system."

[Rocket Science]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2012/07/31/commercial-crew-announcement-this-week/#more-41471
Nice speculation here about the awards:
"Charles Lurio of The Lurio Report has emailed me saying that he has heard from a very reliable source that NASA will announce the next round of commercial crew funding on Thursday or Friday."
"I had heard from a source during the NewSpace 2012 Conference that NASA’s announcement had been delayed from July because White House officials are not happy with one of the awards. It’s not clear precisely what that means, but speculation has focused on the possibility of ATK receiving an award for its Ares I-derived Liberty system."

Ha, I liked this article…  It relates to my thread on the “Sons of Constellation”…
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29410.0

[kirghizstan]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2012/07/31/commercial-crew-announcement-this-week/#more-41471
Nice speculation here about the awards:
"Charles Lurio of The Lurio Report has emailed me saying that he has heard from a very reliable source that NASA will announce the next round of commercial crew funding on Thursday or Friday."
"I had heard from a source during the NewSpace 2012 Conference that NASA’s announcement had been delayed from July because White House officials are not happy with one of the awards. It’s not clear precisely what that means, but speculation has focused on the possibility of ATK receiving an award for its Ares I-derived Liberty system."

wouldn't the white house have been notified of what nasa was thinking before actually going to the companies?  if they didn't want ATK they would have said no then.  something like that coming at this late of a stage would be really surprising to me.

on a side note, do you ever think someone will write a book on the story inside the obama's executive branch and NASA?  probably just be an ebook but still would be a very interesting read.

[yg1968]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2012/07/31/commercial-crew-announcement-this-week/#more-41471
Nice speculation here about the awards:
"Charles Lurio of The Lurio Report has emailed me saying that he has heard from a very reliable source that NASA will announce the next round of commercial crew funding on Thursday or Friday."
"I had heard from a source during the NewSpace 2012 Conference that NASA’s announcement had been delayed from July because White House officials are not happy with one of the awards. It’s not clear precisely what that means, but speculation has focused on the possibility of ATK receiving an award for its Ares I-derived Liberty system."

wouldn't the white house have been notified of what nasa was thinking before actually going to the companies?  if they didn't want ATK they would have said no then.  something like that coming at this late of a stage would be really surprising to me.

on a side note, do you ever think someone will write a book on the story inside the obama's executive branch and NASA?  probably just be an ebook but still would be a very interesting read.

Gerst is the selecting officer. If he decides that ATK gets full funding, it gets full funding. The White House (or even Bolden for that matter) cannot undo his selections. The only thing that the White House can do about it is delay the announcement or perhaps renegotiate the deal with Wolf to have four providers instead of three.

If NASA has actually chosen ATK, I hope that it is not for political reasons or because it is launching from KSC or because it has commonality with SLS/MPCV. But given NASA's past history, I am not too confident that Gerst decisions will be based solely on business and technical merits as it should be. If that is the case, I can understand the White House being unhappy about one of Gerst's selections.  Gerst must have know how the White House would react ahead of time. The White House doesn't think of the commercial crew program as an SLS/MPCV supplement program and it is a shame that some at NASA think of commercial crew that way. I am surprised and disapointed that Gerst is one of them (assuming that this report is true). I always thought of Gerst as a common sense kind of guy.

[anonymous1138]

Gerst is the selecting officer. If he decides that ATK gets full funding, it gets full funding. The White House (or even Bolden for that matter) cannot undo his selections. The only thing that the White House can do about it is delay the announcement or perhaps renegotiate the deal with Wolf to have four providers instead of three.

If NASA has actually chosen ATK, I hope that it is not for political reasons or because it is launching from KSC or because it has commonality with SLS/MPCV. But given NASA's past history, I am not too confident that Gerst decisions will be based solely on business and technical merits as it should be. If that is the case, I can understand the White House being unhappy about one of Gerst's selections.  Gerst must have know how the White House would react ahead of time. The White House doesn't think of the commercial crew program as an SLS/MPCV supplement program. 

I have heard only good things spoken about Gerstenmeier. Any decisions made purely on business and technical merit will probably - over time, at least - be accepted. I know that if there is a hint that politics played a role in the selection process over and above business and technical merit, there will be great disappointment.

I'll be very surprised if ATK gets any award.