CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread

[Lar]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

[ChrisWilson68]

Decided to copy my comment from the SpaceX In-Flight LAS Abort Test to here:

This extension to the end of March 2015 is very disappointing.  Now a year late. The D2 unveil was billed as actual flight hardware with Elon stating that that particular capsule was destined for orbit. It  was completely bare inside except for the temporarily mounted seats and (I assume mock-up) flight control panel.

It's just a wild guess by you that the seats and control panel are mock-ups and temporary.  There's no evidence of all of that.

Lots of work on interior to be done.

Again, just a guess by you.

However, does the interior have to be finished for the abort tests? I think not. Since the capsule shown was for orbit, I think this implies that the abort capsule was previously built and should therefore be further on to completion.

Just another guess.

All this leads me to believe that the abort capsule is almost complete, and on hold, waiting for DragonFly test results.

That's a conclusion based on guess upon guess.  I don't see any real reason to think that.

It occurred to me that maybe the abort capsule IS Dragonfly. Is that possible? Test as Dragonfly first before using it as the abort vehicle?

At best, possible but highly speculative.

Hopefully this delay is not on the critical path to CCtCap certification. Any insight to CCiCap and CCtCap running in parallel? AIUI CCiCap completion is a pre-requisit to CCtCap funding, so I am wondering if this delay in completing milestones could delay CCtCap.

What says CCiCap completion is a pre-requisite to CCtCap funding?

[Roy_H]

I'm sorry, I didn't realize that this is an UPDATE thread, no speculation allowed!
You did, however, prompt me to try to find the statement about CCiCap being a pre-requisite to CCtCap. Had to go re-read this http://commercialcrew.nasa.gov/page.cfm?ID=50 and it turns out I was wrong about that. I must have been thinking about CCDev being required for CCiCap.

[yg1968]

It's actually a discussion thread (there is no update thread).

Completing CPC (the first phase of certification) or its equivalent is a requirement in order to bid for CCtCap . But CCP was recently completed by all three commercial crew companies (see link below). For CCiCap, NASA is hoping that SpaceX and Boeing will be at CDR level prior to CCtCap being awarded in September. So getting to CDR is more important than the LAS tests, I would say, but it's not required to be completed prior to CCtCap.

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/may/nasa-and-industry-complete-first-phase-to-certify-new-crew-transportation-systems/

[Roy_H]

yg1968; Thankyou for your clarification of CCtCap qualification.

I am aware this is not an Update thread, my point was I thought it was OK to speculate in a Discussion thread.

[Prober]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

its a milestone charted what more do you want?

any way you wish to chart the # of completed milestones its going to look the same.

interesting; DC is completing milestones far faster then SpaceX yet they have less funding to work with.

just know what the spin reply for this will be....go for it, ready

[dcporter]

I assume and you could too that he wanted a graph that shows each company's progress out of different totals of some sort, rather than all appearing to be approaching the same level ("top of thermometer/graph/whatever").

[beancounter]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

its a milestone charted what more do you want?

any way you wish to chart the # of completed milestones its going to look the same.

interesting; DC is completing milestones far faster then SpaceX yet they have less funding to work with.

just know what the spin reply for this will be....go for it, ready

Well if you already knew then why ask for it.
Ok, I'll bite.  Have you analysed each milestone and elapsed time and then compared like for like?  I haven't but hoped you had and therefore could add substance to your aforementioned statement.
Cheers

[MP99]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

its a milestone charted what more do you want?

any way you wish to chart the # of completed milestones its going to look the same.

interesting; DC is completing milestones far faster then SpaceX yet they have less funding to work with.

just know what the spin reply for this will be....go for it, ready

The big question is what those thermometers would look like if they included all the milestones to the final, delivered service.

Put another way, how much have each of the competitors left for the following CCtCap round?

Cheers, Martin

[Prober]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

its a milestone charted what more do you want?

any way you wish to chart the # of completed milestones its going to look the same.

interesting; DC is completing milestones far faster then SpaceX yet they have less funding to work with.

just know what the spin reply for this will be....go for it, ready

Well if you already knew then why ask for it.
Ok, I'll bite.  Have you analysed each milestone and elapsed time and then compared like for like?  I haven't but hoped you had and therefore could add substance to your aforementioned statement.
Cheers

being prepared isn't asking for it

[Prober]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

its a milestone charted what more do you want?

any way you wish to chart the # of completed milestones its going to look the same.

interesting; DC is completing milestones far faster then SpaceX yet they have less funding to work with.

just know what the spin reply for this will be....go for it, ready

The big question is what those thermometers would look like if they included all the milestones to the final, delivered service.

Put another way, how much have each of the competitors left for the following CCtCap round?

Cheers, Martin

fair point, my thinking is a tad different .....how about a ROI to the taxpayer also

[Elmar Moelzer]

fair point, my thinking is a tad different .....how about a ROI to the taxpayer also

Well better than paying the Russians for it.
Also note that the delays are probably in part due to the less than ideal funding.

[Todd Martin]

I just completed Family SpaceCamp; the campers had an opportunity for a Q&A with Astronaut Don Thomas.

I asked if the Astronaut Corps would provide input on commercial crew vehicles for the downselect on CCiCAP.  I also asked his personal preference among the 3 vehicles.

He said the decision is NASA's and the Astronaut Corps will have little to no input on the decision. 

His preference was toward SpaceX because they have flown Dragons.  From his comments, being flight proven is important.

[Ike17055]

Flight proven?  v2 seems to be a wholly different craft. And v1 does not have docking capability, a key component of the commercial crew vehicles...Has anyone posted a graphic of a side by side comparison  of the two Dragon craft?

[Lar]

Not a big fan of that big fat pseudo analog thermometer graphic, especially since it's misleading in my view. Some milestones are more important than others.At the completion of these series of milestones, whose vehicle will be closer to launchability? That's what really matters, although I readily grant Boeing is ahead on the paper milestones...

its a milestone charted what more do you want?

any way you wish to chart the # of completed milestones its going to look the same.

interesting; DC is completing milestones far faster then SpaceX yet they have less funding to work with.

just know what the spin reply for this will be....go for it, ready

The big question is what those thermometers would look like if they included all the milestones to the final, delivered service.

Put another way, how much have each of the competitors left for the following CCtCap round?

Cheers, Martin

Thats it exactly. I want to know what's left to do before that entrant's vehicle is in regular service. How many milestones left til THEN, not till this phase is done.  Further, I'd like the scale not to be linear. I'd like the scale to use some other metric (degree of difficulty?) because not all milestones are equal. Paper milestones aren't as nifty as actually bending metal and launching things. You can argue that there would be an argument about how big each milestone was, and that's true. But I still want it. (and a pony)

As I said, it's my perception that Boeing so far has produced a lot of paper and some test articles but no flight hardware, and has pushed a lot of things that have to be done before they actually start regular service into the next phase. (or do they plan to fly without doing abort tests?)

being prepared isn't asking for it

Oh, you're asking for it all right :p

[Lars_J]

Flight proven?  v2 seems to be a wholly different craft. And v1 does not have docking capability, a key component of the commercial crew vehicles...Has anyone posted a graphic of a side by side comparison  of the two Dragon craft?

Look beneath the paint and cosmetics, and you'll find lots of similarities and shared systems. Take away the SD plus their fairings, and the crafts look very similar.

Flight experience counts. And even if Dragon v2 was a clean sheet design, the current experience of the design and engineering team counts for a lot. (At least that is what Boeing usually says)

[Prober]

SNC is sure racking up the milestones

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/07/dream-chaser-major-ccicap-challenge/

[yg1968]

http://www.nasa.gov/content/nasa-partners-punctuate-summer-with-spacecraft-development-advances/index.html

The next milestone for Blue Origin will be a subsystem interim design review that will assess the progress of the company's Space Vehicle design.

The Boeing Company, which is designing the CST-100 spacecraft, has two reviews later this summer. A full critical design review (CDR) will examine the detailed plans for the spacecraft, launch vehicle and a host of ground support, processing and operations designs. The second review will come soon after -- the Spacecraft Safety Review is designed to show the design of the spacecraft and its systems are in line with Boeing's CDR-level design.

Sierra Nevada Corporation completed risk reduction testing on the flight crew systems in development for its Dream Chaser spacecraft. The team evaluated crew ingress and egress using the full-scale mockup of the Dream Chaser pressurized cabin, as well as the visibility from inside the cockpit, controls and displays and seat loading. The company reviewed tests conducted on the thermal protection system for its spacecraft as well as the composite structure, life support system and thermal control systems. Later this summer, the reaction control system will undergo an incremental test to further its design.

SpaceX currently is completing a qualification test milestone for the primary structure of its Dragon spacecraft. Following this milestone, the company, which is using its own Falcon 9 launch vehicle, will outline its ground systems, crew and mission operations plans in an operational review that will put the company’s processes through a rigorous examination.

Later this year, NASA plans to award one or more contracts that will provide the agency with commercial services to transport astronauts to and from the International Space Station by the end of 2017.

[mr. mark]

My gut feeling is that SpaceX may win the war with reuse but may lose a battle when it comes to NASA picking them for manned flight. I also like the way Sierra Nevada is positioning themselves internationally with Dreamchaser. The JAXA agreement is a good example of this.

[rcoppola]

Both Boeing and SpaceX got $400Mill+ in this latest phase. But within that allocation, SpaceX will be doing 2 abort scenarios with actual flight-design systems. And as such, will have reduced the most risk coming out of CCiCAP. There is very little chance they will not be part of the down-select. IMO.

The reality is, each of these proposed vehicles are at different stages of development and will come on-line at different times. Perhaps 6 months apart, maybe even 18 months apart. It should be apparent to NASA who can be certified first with the lowest per-seat price and what that will cost in the next phase.

I have not seen or heard anything that would dissuade me from thinking that SpaceX can and will finish first and offer the cheapest service.

I think CST-100 and DC are going to battle it out for slot 2. I know who I'd select for that.