Author Topic: CCDev to CCiCAP to CCtCAP Discussion Thread  (Read 811309 times)

Offline joek

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1120 on: 06/25/2014 12:51 am »
Ok, we'll exclude the COTS numbers. SpaceX is doing it for 15% less.

NASA simply contracted both companies to haul 20 mT to the station. The number of trips required to complete the task is irrelevant at best. Unless someone is trying to slant numbers towards what they want them to say.

Unfortunately the CRS contract is not quite that simple and "it" (what SpaceX and OSC are providing) is variable and price is not simply based on "20 mT to the station".  Based on the CRS RFP and contracts, "it" may be based on per-kg or per-mission pricing and also varies depending on whether it is pressurised-up or -down, and whether it is pressurized- or unpressurized-down disposal.

The specifics of the CRS contract pricing or what is being payed to OSC and SpaceX are redacted and impossible to divine, other than a "minimum value" at initial CRS contract award.  All of which tells us very little as to what is being paid for "it".  In any case, to state that "SpaceX is doing it for 15% less." without basis is as erroneous and as arguable an attempt to "slant numbers" as any other.


edit: p.s. Sorry for the digression, but this meme needs to be killed, which has been hashed over in other threads, and which has nothing to do with CCDev, CCiCap, or CCtCap.  Back to CCiCap/CCtCap please...
« Last Edit: 06/25/2014 12:58 am by joek »

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1121 on: 06/27/2014 02:29 pm »
An update, CCiCap has been extended to March 31, 2015 for SNC and SpaceX in order to give them more time to complete their remaining milestones:
http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/41043commercial-crew-partners-get-extension
« Last Edit: 06/27/2014 02:32 pm by yg1968 »

Offline BrianNH

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1122 on: 06/27/2014 04:37 pm »
The article says that the pad abort is the 14th and final milestone.  I think that the milestones include the launch abort as well.

Has anyone heard anything about the other 2 SpaceX pending milestones - the Integrated Critical Design Review and the Dragon Primary Structure Qualification?

Also, anyone know the latest status on the DreamChaser and CST-100 milestones?

Online StarryKnight

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1123 on: 06/27/2014 06:23 pm »
The article says that the pad abort is the 14th and final milestone.  I think that the milestones include the launch abort as well.

Has anyone heard anything about the other 2 SpaceX pending milestones - the Integrated Critical Design Review and the Dragon Primary Structure Qualification?

Also, anyone know the latest status on the DreamChaser and CST-100 milestones?
If the pad abort is the final milestone, then an abort during launch would not have been a milestone. You wouldn't launch a rocket to demonstrate an abort under max Q if you haven't already proven that the capsule can survive an abort under less strenuous initial conditions. You could forgo the pad abort and jump straight to the launch abort. But once you do that, there's not much to prove in then doing the pad abort.

As for the status of the other two vehicles' milestones, the article says that DC needs more time to complete their milestones, but CST-100 will complete its milestones on time this August. I have no idea what the specific milestones are that are remaining for any of the vehicles.
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Offline sublimemarsupial

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1124 on: 06/27/2014 06:30 pm »
The article says that the pad abort is the 14th and final milestone.  I think that the milestones include the launch abort as well.

Has anyone heard anything about the other 2 SpaceX pending milestones - the Integrated Critical Design Review and the Dragon Primary Structure Qualification?

Also, anyone know the latest status on the DreamChaser and CST-100 milestones?
If the pad abort is the final milestone, then an abort during launch would not have been a milestone. You wouldn't launch a rocket to demonstrate an abort under max Q if you haven't already proven that the capsule can survive an abort under less strenuous initial conditions. You could forgo the pad abort and jump straight to the launch abort. But once you do that, there's not much to prove in then doing the pad abort.

As for the status of the other two vehicles' milestones, the article says that DC needs more time to complete their milestones, but CST-100 will complete its milestones on time this August. I have no idea what the specific milestones are that are remaining for any of the vehicles.

The in-flight abort is the final SpaceX milestone, the pad abort is before it. Compare the milestones here:

SpaceX:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/04/01/spacex-commercial-crew-milestones-status/

Boeing:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/04/01/boeing-commercial-crew-milestones-status/

SNC:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/02/26/sierra-nevada-commercial-crew-milestones-status/

Offline SWGlassPit

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1125 on: 06/27/2014 06:30 pm »
If the pad abort is the final milestone, then an abort during launch would not have been a milestone. You wouldn't launch a rocket to demonstrate an abort under max Q if you haven't already proven that the capsule can survive an abort under less strenuous initial conditions. You could forgo the pad abort and jump straight to the launch abort. But once you do that, there's not much to prove in then doing the pad abort.

Not quite -- a pad abort demonstrates the ability of the abort system to boost the capsule to a sufficient altitude and range so that its recovery system (parachute, propulsive, or other) can fully activate and land the capsule softly at a safe distance from the pad.  A max-q abort doesn't demonstrate that.

Offline BrianNH

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1126 on: 06/27/2014 06:41 pm »
I should have worded that more carefully.  I meant "I don't think that the pad abort is the final milestone because I believe that a MAX-Q abort is also one of the ccicap milestones."

Online darkenfast

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1127 on: 06/28/2014 02:17 am »
Do Boeing's milestones not include an abort test?  I don't see one in the list linked above.
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Offline joek

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1128 on: 06/28/2014 02:31 am »
Do Boeing's milestones not include an abort test?  I don't see one in the list linked above.

No.  IIRC they said they had two flight tests in the original CCiCap proposal, one being a flight abort test, but they were removed due to funding constraints.

Offline joek

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1129 on: 06/28/2014 02:43 am »
Has anyone heard anything about the other 2 SpaceX pending milestones - the Integrated Critical Design Review and the Dragon Primary Structure Qualification?

The SpaceX integrated CDR (milestone #13) was apparently conducted in April; no idea if it is considered complete.  Other than that there appears to be three milestones remaining: (#12) Dragon primary structure qualification*; (#11) pad abort test; (#14) in-flight abort test.


* Not sure but there has been no mention by NASA that the Dragon structure qualification bas been completed, so I assume not.
« Last Edit: 06/28/2014 02:47 am by joek »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1130 on: 07/01/2014 12:50 am »
Article from Parabolic Arc.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/06/30/remaining-milestones-nasas-commercial-crew-partners/#more-52735

The last paragraph was interesting.

Quote
Officials at SpaceX and Sierra Nevada have both said they would press on with the development of their vehicles even if they don’t receive funding in the next round. Boeing, on the other hand, has said it will need to carefully evaluate whether it will continue building CST-100 if additional NASA funding does not come through. Boeing is reported to have committed the least amount of its own money to commercial crew compared with its competitors.


Edit/Lar: Made the fact that it's a quote more obvious by using "quote" tags...
« Last Edit: 07/01/2014 03:33 am by Lar »

Offline Prober

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1131 on: 07/01/2014 10:00 pm »
Article from Parabolic Arc.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/06/30/remaining-milestones-nasas-commercial-crew-partners/#more-52735

The last paragraph was interesting.

Quote
Officials at SpaceX and Sierra Nevada have both said they would press on with the development of their vehicles even if they don’t receive funding in the next round. Boeing, on the other hand, has said it will need to carefully evaluate whether it will continue building CST-100 if additional NASA funding does not come through. Boeing is reported to have committed the least amount of its own money to commercial crew compared with its competitors.


Edit/Lar: Made the fact that it's a quote more obvious by using "quote" tags...

Boeing is reported to have committed the least amount of its own money to commercial crew compared with its competitors.

Reported, no factual information other than the old information (2012 ?)  Some real numbers would be of interest.
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Offline rcoppola

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1132 on: 07/01/2014 10:45 pm »
Article from Parabolic Arc.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/06/30/remaining-milestones-nasas-commercial-crew-partners/#more-52735

The last paragraph was interesting.

Quote
Officials at SpaceX and Sierra Nevada have both said they would press on with the development of their vehicles even if they don’t receive funding in the next round. Boeing, on the other hand, has said it will need to carefully evaluate whether it will continue building CST-100 if additional NASA funding does not come through. Boeing is reported to have committed the least amount of its own money to commercial crew compared with its competitors.


Edit/Lar: Made the fact that it's a quote more obvious by using "quote" tags...
Boeings' position has been consistent in that they most likely would not close the business case outside of NASA and therefore would likely not continue development without them. Closing the business case and percentage of private-investment has certainly been one of the tenets of CC. What we don't know is how NASA will ultimately weigh this in the larger context of safety, costs and schedule.

Currently, SpaceX is the only one who will complete both a pad and in-flight abort under this currently funded round of CC. Which means, IMO, that Boeing will need a much larger budget allotment then SpaceX for the next round if they were to be chosen since Boeing would need to purchase at least 2 Atlas Vs for the in-flight abort test and orbital flight test.

So if NASA has $800 Million-ish for the next round and say SpaceX needs $400Million-ish to have a fully integrated and certified service ready to go in 2016ish (2017), then how much more would Boeing need if they haven't even done the abort scenarios yet?
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Online clongton

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1133 on: 07/02/2014 12:25 am »
Currently, SpaceX is the only one who will complete both a pad and in-flight abort under this currently funded round of CC. Which means, IMO, that Boeing will need a much larger budget allotment then SpaceX for the next round if they were to be chosen since Boeing would need to purchase at least 2 Atlas Vs for the in-flight abort test and orbital flight test.

So if NASA has $800 Million-ish for the next round and say SpaceX needs $400Million-ish to have a fully integrated and certified service ready to go in 2016ish (2017), then how much more would Boeing need if they haven't even done the abort scenarios yet?

And DreamChaser has!
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Offline joek

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1134 on: 07/02/2014 12:33 am »
And DreamChaser has!
Sorry missing something... "And DreamChase has!"... what?
« Last Edit: 07/02/2014 12:34 am by joek »

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1135 on: 07/02/2014 12:34 am »
And DreamChaser has!
Sorry missing something... "DreamChase has!"... what?

Launched and tested on an Atlas.

DreamChaser has already purchased the Atlas launch vehicle and scheduled their flight test.
Boeing hasn't even come close. And they can't just order up a new Atlas. Those things take time to build and there are no spares. By the time Boeing can get an Atlas in the chute and schedule their test flight Dreamchaser will already be long back on the ground, having completed theirs.
« Last Edit: 07/02/2014 12:37 am by clongton »
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Offline joek

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1136 on: 07/02/2014 12:38 am »
And DreamChaser has!
Sorry missing something... "DreamChase has!"... what?
Launched and tested on an Atlas.

Sorry for being dense (or ironic- or humor-challenged), but still be missing something.  When did DreamChaser launch or test on an Atlas?

Offline newpylong

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1137 on: 07/02/2014 12:38 am »
Article from Parabolic Arc.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/06/30/remaining-milestones-nasas-commercial-crew-partners/#more-52735

The last paragraph was interesting.

Quote
Officials at SpaceX and Sierra Nevada have both said they would press on with the development of their vehicles even if they don’t receive funding in the next round. Boeing, on the other hand, has said it will need to carefully evaluate whether it will continue building CST-100 if additional NASA funding does not come through. Boeing is reported to have committed the least amount of its own money to commercial crew compared with its competitors.


Edit/Lar: Made the fact that it's a quote more obvious by using "quote" tags...
Boeings' position has been consistent in that they most likely would not close the business case outside of NASA and therefore would likely not continue development without them. Closing the business case and percentage of private-investment has certainly been one of the tenets of CC. What we don't know is how NASA will ultimately weigh this in the larger context of safety, costs and schedule.

Currently, SpaceX is the only one who will complete both a pad and in-flight abort under this currently funded round of CC. Which means, IMO, that Boeing will need a much larger budget allotment then SpaceX for the next round if they were to be chosen since Boeing would need to purchase at least 2 Atlas Vs for the in-flight abort test and orbital flight test.

So if NASA has $800 Million-ish for the next round and say SpaceX needs $400Million-ish to have a fully integrated and certified service ready to go in 2016ish (2017), then how much more would Boeing need if they haven't even done the abort scenarios yet?

They aren't required to use the same LV for the tests as for launch. SpaceX is using F9 because it's well, cheap.
« Last Edit: 07/02/2014 12:41 am by newpylong »

Offline joek

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1138 on: 07/02/2014 12:53 am »
And DreamChaser has!
Sorry missing something... "DreamChase has!"... what?
DreamChaser has already purchased the Atlas launch vehicle and scheduled their flight test.
Boeing hasn't even come close. And they can't just order up a new Atlas. Those things take time to build and there are no spares. By the time Boeing can get an Atlas in the chute and schedule their test flight Dreamchaser will already be long back on the ground, having completed theirs.

Got it.  Thanks.  However, without knowing the T&C's of the arrangement, I wouldn't count on a DreamChaser Atlas flight test at this time.  From Sierra Nevada Reserves Atlas Rocket for Dream Chaser Test Flight, SpaceNews, Jan 23 2014:
Quote
“It is a confirmed launch date. It’s a confirmed payment on the launch to start the process working,” Sirangelo told reporters at a press conference.

“What happens after the [NASA] contract award happens or not happens we’ll decide then, but we are moving forward on the program for this one,” he added.
In short, TBD.

Offline CJ

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Re: CCDev to CCiCAP Discussion Thread
« Reply #1139 on: 07/02/2014 02:03 am »

If the pad abort is the final milestone, then an abort during launch would not have been a milestone. You wouldn't launch a rocket to demonstrate an abort under max Q if you haven't already proven that the capsule can survive an abort under less strenuous initial conditions. You could forgo the pad abort and jump straight to the launch abort. But once you do that, there's not much to prove in then doing the pad abort.

As for the status of the other two vehicles' milestones, the article says that DC needs more time to complete their milestones, but CST-100 will complete its milestones on time this August. I have no idea what the specific milestones are that are remaining for any of the vehicles.

The in-flight abort is the final SpaceX milestone, the pad abort is before it. Compare the milestones here:

SpaceX:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/04/01/spacex-commercial-crew-milestones-status/

Boeing:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/04/01/boeing-commercial-crew-milestones-status/

SNC:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/02/26/sierra-nevada-commercial-crew-milestones-status/
[/quote]

Thank you very much for those links.

I'm confused as heck (and googling has been of no help) so could someone here let me know why only SpaceX has abort tests as milestones? SNC and Boeing don't have either pad abort or Max-Q abort tests listed at all for milestones.

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