Planetary Resources

[Robotbeat]

Is there a market to have Arkyds go along as a secondary with various payloads just for watching what the payloads do?  If they can be made for $2M, it might be worth watching:

A probe that is looking at an asteroid

A satellite that is doing stuff

A view of dragon getting berthed to ISS from 200+ meters away.

etc.

No.

[go4mars]

A probe that is looking at an asteroid

A satellite that is doing stuff

A view of dragon getting berthed to ISS from 200+ meters away.

etc.

No.

Let me change the question then:  Since PR wants to send these up anyway, is it reasonably likely that launches of other payloads, such as those described above, would partially subsidize these secondary PR payloads by having their very first mission 'to observe such things'? 

[Robotbeat]

I really don't think so. Look at one of the only instances of something like this happening: IKAROS. Just two tiny deployable, expendable cameras. Much cheaper than you're suggesting and much smaller (and less massive) as well.

[Robert Thompson]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2013/03/08/video-diamandis-anderson-describe-their-asteroid-mining-plans/
Video: Diamandis, Anderson Describe Their Asteroid Mining Plans

- AI capable of characterization at site: spin rate, debris cloud, albedo, characterization of materials
- notional target asteroid is 2011-UW158, .5km x 1km, 1.9 year earth resonance, 8 months travel time, $.3-5T platinum
- $4 million per Arkyd 100
- 1mm resolution at 1km from asteroid
- 1 to 2m resolution from earth orbit
- integrated propellant tanks
- carbon nanotube wiring
- Don't put the last 50% of cost into the last 2% of risk.
- metal foam return: 100kg platinum foamed into 2 meter diameter ball at less that 60mph terminal velocity into 1 km landing elipse

[BrightLight]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2013/03/08/video-diamandis-anderson-describe-their-asteroid-mining-plans/
Video: Diamandis, Anderson Describe Their Asteroid Mining Plans

- AI capable of characterization at site: spin rate, debris cloud, albedo, characterization of materials
- notional target asteroid is 2011-UW158, .5km x 1km, 1.9 year earth resonance, 8 months travel time, $.3-5T platinum
- $4 million per Arkyd 100
- 1mm resolution at 1km from asteroid
- 1 to 2m resolution from earth orbit
- integrated propellant tanks
- carbon nanotube wiring
- Don't put the last 50% of cost into the last 2% of risk.
- metal foam return: 100kg platinum foamed into 2 meter diameter ball at less that 60mph terminal velocity into 1 km landing elipse

Does anyone know the size and focal length of the telescope, I can easily understand how to get 1mm resolution at 1 km but how do you get the same telescope to get you 1 m resolution at earth orbital distances from the asteroid.

[Robotbeat]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2013/03/08/video-diamandis-anderson-describe-their-asteroid-mining-plans/
Video: Diamandis, Anderson Describe Their Asteroid Mining Plans

- AI capable of characterization at site: spin rate, debris cloud, albedo, characterization of materials
- notional target asteroid is 2011-UW158, .5km x 1km, 1.9 year earth resonance, 8 months travel time, $.3-5T platinum
- $4 million per Arkyd 100
- 1mm resolution at 1km from asteroid
- 1 to 2m resolution from earth orbit
- integrated propellant tanks
- carbon nanotube wiring
- Don't put the last 50% of cost into the last 2% of risk.
- metal foam return: 100kg platinum foamed into 2 meter diameter ball at less that 60mph terminal velocity into 1 km landing elipse

Does anyone know the size and focal length of the telescope, I can easily understand how to get 1mm resolution at 1 km but how do you get the same telescope to get you 1 m resolution at earth orbital distances from the asteroid.

You get that resolution from close passes like we experience every once in a few years.

[Danderman]

Does anyone know the size and focal length of the telescope, I can easily understand how to get 1mm resolution at 1 km but how do you get the same telescope to get you 1 m resolution at earth orbital distances from the asteroid.

Use different telescopes for different spacecraft.

[Tass]

Does anyone know the size and focal length of the telescope, I can easily understand how to get 1mm resolution at 1 km but how do you get the same telescope to get you 1 m resolution at earth orbital distances from the asteroid.

Pretty sure it's 1-2m resolution when imaging earth from earth orbit.

[go4mars]

Metal foam return.  Interesting idea.  Presumably as the leading edges melted, most of it would be caught by the cold porous foam behind?

[Mongo62]

Does anyone know the size and focal length of the telescope, I can easily understand how to get 1mm resolution at 1 km but how do you get the same telescope to get you 1 m resolution at earth orbital distances from the asteroid.

That was for imaging Earth from Earth orbit, roughly 500x as distant but with (I assume) atmospheric blurring to contend with.

[Tass]

Metal foam return.  Interesting idea.  Presumably as the leading edges melted, most of it would be caught by the cold porous foam behind?

With such a low ballistic coefficient a high thermal conductivity and a melting point of 1768°C for platinum I am not sure if it would melt at all.

[go4mars]

With such a low ballistic coefficient a high thermal conductivity and a melting point of 1768°C for platinum I am not sure if it would melt at all.

Perhaps.  I assumed a hollow sphere would be better able to take advantage of the high thermal conductivity and be more likely to change angles (roll/tumble), as opposed to getting stuck in a fixed orientation.

[Danderman]

- notional target asteroid is 2011-UW158, .5km x 1km, 1.9 year earth resonance, 8 months travel time, $.3-5T platinum

A couple of months ago, there was some debate about whether platinum existed in economic form in a NEO, and here we have a company stating that they have found at least one, and no one here bats an eye.

Hmmmm ... maybe the naysayers ran off and bought stock in this company.

[Tass]

- notional target asteroid is 2011-UW158, .5km x 1km, 1.9 year earth resonance, 8 months travel time, $.3-5T platinum

A couple of months ago, there was some debate about whether platinum existed in economic form in a NEO, and here we have a company stating that they have found at least one, and no one here bats an eye.

Hmmmm ... maybe the naysayers ran off and bought stock in this company.

Oh, the value is .3-5T at current market value. But the world platinum market is only worth a few billion a year. The question is whether they can return a billions worth of platinum a year for less than a billion a year. (Or possibly in the long term mass produce it cheap enough that they'll crash the prices, but also increase demand massively). Keep in mind that they´ll also look for volatiles for the LEO and GEO and BEO infrastructure.

Basically for now they are just experimenting to see what can be done and how cheaply, to make sure that when something becomes possible they have a head start.

The 3T valuation is just PR* talk.

*Public Relations not Planetary Resources (well actually both I guess). 

[Danderman]

There is no doubt that an asteroid could contain trillions of dollars worth of platinum, my question is how does PR know that this particular asteroid contains that much?

The canard about the small size of the platinum market ignores the history of semi-precious metals such as aluminum. The aluminum market today is significantly larger than when aluminum was a semi-precious metal, and bauxite mining firms make tons of money.

[as58]

There is no doubt that an asteroid could contain trillions of dollars worth of platinum, my question is how does PR know that this particular asteroid contains that much?

You arrive at that sort of number just by assuming that the platinum concentration is from a few to a few tens of ppm, as discussed earlier in this thread. It's a fairly big asteroid. I don't think they have any information about the concentration of pgms in this particular asteroid apart from what they know about pgms in meteorite samples that originate from that type of asteroids (i.e., LL chondrites).

[Tass]

The canard about the small size of the platinum market ignores the history of semi-precious metals such as aluminum. The aluminum market today is significantly larger than when aluminum was a semi-precious metal, and bauxite mining firms make tons of money.

Oh, I agree completely. There is a potential for a huge growth of the platinum market if we got the price down. Thats also what they say: "I hope we crash the market". 

But it is somewhat long term. First they need to make a profit in the millions and billions, which will first be data and later might be part platinum and part volatiles for others. Then comes the trillions of a huge platinum industry.

(And then hopefully the quadrillions and quintillions of a solar system spanning civilization)

Still it does not change the point that that one asteroid is not worth 3 trillion dollars. Either the price remains up and there is no market for it, or the price drops and it doesn't have enough to be three trillions.

[ohlongjohnson]

On Planetary Ressources twitter feed:

Chris Lewicki ‏@interplanetary

Incredible week to be an #AsteroidMiner New asteroids to fly by the Earth, new investors, a growing team & plans becoming reality.

Any specifics about the investors known?

[Danderman]

The canard about the small size of the platinum market ignores the history of semi-precious metals such as aluminum. The aluminum market today is significantly larger than when aluminum was a semi-precious metal, and bauxite mining firms make tons of money.

Oh, I agree completely. There is a potential for a huge growth of the platinum market if we got the price down. Thats also what they say: "I hope we crash the market". 

But it is somewhat long term. First they need to make a profit in the millions and billions, which will first be data and later might be part platinum and part volatiles for others. Then comes the trillions of a huge platinum industry.

(And then hopefully the quadrillions and quintillions of a solar system spanning civilization)

Still it does not change the point that that one asteroid is not worth 3 trillion dollars. Either the price remains up and there is no market for it, or the price drops and it doesn't have enough to be three trillions.

Of course, anyone even considering this line of business plans to bring back platinum (at first) in quantities of metric tons at a time, not hundreds of tons. The crashing the market would happen much later, when we have warp drive and starships, or at least much more sophisticated transport systems.

If you look at a potential business plan resulting in mid-term delivery of one ton payloads back to Earth, if the infrastructure to make this happen is feasible, then the plan makes some sense. That is why I say that "they will crash the market so it doesn't make economic sense" is a canard.

[guckyfan]

There is no doubt that an asteroid could contain trillions of dollars worth of platinum, my question is how does PR know that this particular asteroid contains that much?

You arrive at that sort of number just by assuming that the platinum concentration is from a few to a few tens of ppm, as discussed earlier in this thread. It's a fairly big asteroid. I don't think they have any information about the concentration of pgms in this particular asteroid apart from what they know about pgms in meteorite samples that originate from that type of asteroids (i.e., LL chondrites).

And there's my point of doubt. That concentration may be worth processing on earth. But how do you extract it in space for transport?