Planetary Resources

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

I have been stuck on the problem of how Planetary Resources plans to get the platinum back to Earth, and just realized that maybe they don't plan to return the platinum back to Earth - maybe they expect to sell the platinum in space to whoever needs it there.

What is so difficult? It is worth so much you could discard a Dragon on each flight and still make money.

Lets say you have a  manned minig platform at EML2 and you use a cargo dragon on a fh to deliver supplies. The downmass is taken up with PGM of about 3000kg which is worth about $150M. The PGM pays for thr supplies flights. The other items water is the real money maker but don't dissmiss PGM.

[JohnFornaro]

A "water" asteriod contains 22% water, so a 700,000kg asteriod whose water in high Lunar orbit is worth $20,000/kg would yeild  just in water $3B!

Assume that's true for the moment.  I have no better suggestions for some other price.

What part of that $3B is the amortized cost of the necessary search, retrieval, and processing?

[IRobot]

1Kg of Platinum is worth around $45.000.

So a downmass of 3.000Kg of platinum is worth $135M. Ok, might not pay for a whole dragon launch, but it certainly pays for more than half the launch, which is enough to justify it.
But I'm sure they can make a disposable canister to drop platinum from the skies at a very low cost.

[jnc]

to drop platinum from the skies

Wow! Platinum raining from the skies! That's definitely a step up from a chicken in every pot!

Noel

[QuantumG]

$135M. Ok, might not pay for a whole dragon launch

Did I miss something? DragonLab missions have been quoted for $80M, launch included.

[93143]

That price is for Falcon 9 to LEO, not Falcon Heavy to L2.

Lets say you have a  manned minig platform at EML2 and you use a cargo dragon on a fh to deliver supplies. The downmass is taken up with PGM of about 3000kg which is worth about $150M. The PGM pays for thr supplies flights. The other items water is the real money maker but don't dissmiss PGM.

[QuantumG]

That price is for Falcon 9 to LEO, not Falcon Heavy to L2.

Fair enough. When do you imagine this occuring? 5 years from now? 10? Presumably both SpaceX's prices will fall and the price of platinum will rise by then

[JohnFornaro]

So a downmass of 3.000Kg of platinum is worth $135M.

Iff you can find it, of course, but also:

Pragmatically, Dragon couldn't bring it home, could it?

[93143]

That price is for Falcon 9 to LEO, not Falcon Heavy to L2.

Fair enough. When do you imagine this occuring? 5 years from now? 10?

Me?  I just happened by and decided to draw your attention to the detail you missed.  I'm not invested in anyone else's cost estimates.

But if you really want...

SpaceX's prices will fall

[Jim]
That is not a given
[/Jim]

[QuantumG]

Me?  I just happened by and decided to draw your attention to the detail you missed.  I'm not invested in anyone else's cost estimates.

And I appreciate it. I figured I did miss something there.

But if you really want...

SpaceX's prices will fall

[Jim]
That is not a given
[/Jim]

heh. Nothing is a given here.. we're in the premature state of the industry. I expect that even if you showed up to SpaceX tomorrow with cash in hand they'd have to get back to you before they could give you a price for such a Dragon mission.

[IRobot]

So a downmass of 3.000Kg of platinum is worth $135M.

Iff you can find it, of course, but also:

Pragmatically, Dragon couldn't bring it home, could it?

Actually Platinum value changes a lot. It has been almost double some years ago. And as low as half price. So we are looking at something in the $67M-$270M for a 3.000Kg payload.

For that kind of money you can be sure they will find a way to bring it home!

Another thing to have in account is that even a few tonnes of platinum per year can devalue the metal, as the world's yearly output is just 250mT.
So they want to keep prices high, I guess they can't increase that value by more than 5%-10%. That would mean 12-25mT per year, or 4 to 8 Dragon payloads. Which means something around $500M to $1B per year.
So if they want to make a multiple billion dollar business, they need other materials besides Platinum.

[QuantumG]

Another thing to have in account is that even a few tonnes of platinum per year can devalue the metal, as the world's yearly output is just 250mT.
So they want to keep prices high, I guess they can't increase that value by more than 5%-10%.

Another way to keep prices high is to increase demand. There's a number of applications of platinum that are not currently being pursued because the supply is too low.

[Warren Platts]

Because the supply is too low or the price is too high?

[JohnFornaro]

So a downmass of 3.000Kg of platinum is worth $135M.

Iff you can find it, of course, but also:

Pragmatically, Dragon couldn't bring it home, could it?

Actually Platinum value changes a lot.

So....  What you're saying is that Dragon can't bring it back to Earth?

http://www.spacex.com/dragon.php

6,000 kg (13,228 lbs) payload up-mass to LEO; 3,000 kg (6,614 lbs) payload down-mass

That is.... If and only if they find it?

[Danderman]

Everyone is forgetting that what Planetary Resources will extract is platinum ore, and not platinum itself.

[IRobot]

Everyone is forgetting that what Planetary Resources will extract is platinum ore, and not platinum itself.

If they do that, it will probably not be worth it.

[Danderman]

Everyone is forgetting that what Planetary Resources will extract is platinum ore, and not platinum itself.

If they do that, it will probably not be worth it.

PR really doesn't have a choice about that. You see, asteroids contain PGMs in quantities of maybe 100 parts per million locked in rocks called "ore". So, ore is what PR will have available. How that ore is transported back to Earth is a mystery to me.

So, just like PR plans to sell water in space for use in space, perhaps PR plans to sell ore in space for use in space.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

If its a question of returning an empty cargo Dragon from EML2 or one with ore even if that ore is only worth $10M the answer is send the ore back. A commercial operation would take advantage of every oportunity for additional revenue without increasing costs.

[Danderman]

If its a question of returning an empty cargo Dragon from EML2 or one with ore even if that ore is only worth $10M the answer is send the ore back. A commercial operation would take advantage of every oportunity for additional revenue without increasing costs.

Platinum ore is worth in the low 1000s of dollars per ton.

[jnc]

Platinum ore is worth in the low 1000s of dollars per ton.

It would seem to me that shipping ore around in space makes about as much sense as doing so here on Earth (and yes, it does happen a bit, but mostly not). You're paying good money (delta V = money) to move useless dirt (which is what most of the ore is) from point A to point B. Depending on the size of the processing device, probably better to move it to the ore, and only bring back the product.

Noel