Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[Silmfeanor]

A very nice BBC article, with the video posted by Thierry Legault above included as well:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16444063

"The Russian space agency reports they are largely made of aluminium, which has a very low melting temperature, compared to the titanium tanks that can survive re-entry and can sometimes be found on the ground," explained Dr Holger Krag from the European Space Agency's Operations Centre (Esoc) in Darmstadt, Germany.

I don't think i've read about that before.


And congratulations on Thierry for being featured on the front of the BBC, excellent work!

[Thierry Legault]

My friend Emmanuel Rietsch also took PG with his setup (Celestron 8" on modified EQ-G mount) on Dec 23th, during a passage with close conditions (Sun approximately in the direction of movement) and it seems that the orientation was similar:
http://ercs.electronique.perso.sfr.fr/Web/Phobos_Grunt_EN.htm

[kevin-rf]

I am impressed, to get a 4000mm focal length did he use a standard 2x barlow, or some other special optic to double the normal focal length?

Sadly, Heavens-Above gives my next visible pass as jan. 15th. I suspect the correct hardware to observe that pass will be a catcher's mitt

[Thierry Legault]

I am impressed, to get a 4000mm focal length did he use a standard 2x barlow, or some other special optic to double the normal focal length?

yes, there is a 2x Barlow lens (Televue Powermate).

PS: I have changed the link to his page, now it's in English!

[Naito]

Welcome to NSF Thierry! I'm a big fan of your work, Phil Plait links to your stuff often and I'm always amazed!

hello, on new year's day morning I have taken a video of the last passage of Phobos-Grunt over France. The solar panels look deployed but they are in the opposite direction of the Sun.



The video and all details are on this page: http://legault.perso.sfr.fr/phobos-grunt.html
(including notes about reliability of images of very small objects with a mention to Ralf Vandebergh's images already mentioned in this thread).

This will be nice fireworks for the ones who will see it falling (if there are)!

regards

[JimO]

Anatoly Zak has just posted some good links on fpspace, here:

Unfortunately, we see again an accusation that some foreign power (hence the Unites States) possibly disabled Phobos-Grunt among other Russian spacecraft, and, unfortunately, it comes from much higher source than a previous one.

Those understanding Russian can read the original source here:

http://www.izvestia.ru/news/511258

...but I also included a summary and commentary here:

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/phobos_grunt_reentry.html#1_9

[olasek]

we see again an accusation that some foreign power (hence the Unites States) possibly disabled Phobos-Grunt among other Russian spacecraft, and, unfortunately, it comes from much higher source than a previous one.

This is a perfect excuse for internal Russian consumption, many Russians will readily latch onto it. Sabotage, dark foreign forces at work ... typical Russian theatrics.

[JimO]

More links on the 'blame foreigners' meme:

Shady side of Earth: Western trace in space probe’s failure?
Russia Today // Published: 10 January, 2012, 14:49
 http://rt.com/news/phobos-grunt-probe-failure-versions-445/

Russia Blames Outside Meddling for Space Failures, Izvestia Says
By Henry Meyer - Jan 10, 2012 5:42 AM CT
   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/russia-blames-outside-meddling-for-space-failures-izvestia-says.html

The headlines are overtly sensationalized, as Popovkin worded his thoughts very carefully, yet the headlines represent him as making the accusation.

[Ben the Space Brit]

The headlines are overtly sensationalized, as Popovkin worded his thoughts very carefully, yet the headlines represent him as making the accusation.

"Never let facts (or the actual quote) detract from a cool headline."

[Lee Jay]

Jan 16 decay, plus or minus a day or so.

http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2012/0096.html

[Prober]

Nice....looks like FG passes several times over USA those dates !

[mduncan36]

we see again an accusation that some foreign power (hence the Unites States) possibly disabled Phobos-Grunt among other Russian spacecraft, and, unfortunately, it comes from much higher source than a previous one.

This is a perfect excuse for internal Russian consumption, many Russians will readily latch onto it. Sabotage, dark foreign forces at work ... typical Russian theatrics.

Indeed. One wonders why the "foreign forces", if they had such amazing powers, are unable to stop more threatening things than space probes? How could proper quality control be overcome so easily and consistently?

[ChileVerde]

Nice....looks like PG passes several times over USA those dates !

Yes indeed, and I'm right under one. (Crosses fingers and hopes for fireworks.)

http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=phobos&reenter#MAP has started to show entry corridors as the uncertainties shrink.

[ChileVerde]

http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=phobos&reenter#MAP has started to show entry corridors as the uncertainties shrink.

And here: http://reentrynews.aero.org/upcoming.html

[Lee Jay]

Nice....looks like PG passes several times over USA those dates !

Yes indeed, and I'm right under one. (Crosses fingers and hopes for fireworks.)

This should be added to the "how you know you're a space geek thread" - when a toxic satellite is crashing to Earth and you hope it does so while you're under it!

[Begorrah]

Forgive my lack of knowledge here and wish to ask few questions which some maybe not ask.  Are you not talking about the shuttlecock effect?
Does this object have bilateral symmetry? Or to put it another way equal aerodynamic forces acting on it. If it does now, and maybe not before, would not something happen that would restore the symmetry, such as some bits coming off to equalise the drag? At what point in orbit did those bits fall off?  Now if something broke off again would the object then start to tumble due to unequal drag? I mean a plane does not fly too well with only one wing.
 I regard this object as a lump with no inherant ability to become an aircraft. If you just dropped it, it would fall down in a straight line, and if you pulled a solar panel off, it would rotate or corkscrew as it did so. It isn't a random assymetric lump of rock, and it isn't a plane. It hasn't had anything to kick start a rotation.  However you look at it, it is zipping through the atmosphere, albeit a bit thin, and so what is the effect of this? Aside from the inevitable fiery death.

[olasek]

Begorrah, not sure what you are talking about, are you referring to some past post? The total drag forces acting right now on the whole probe are on the order of 0.1 kG so not sure what's the purpose of considering unequal forces, etc. Not sure what you are really implying. And when the probe finally plunges deeper into the atmosphere later on and the forces will be strong enough to rip this thing into pieces who cares how the final destruction will play out.

[kevin-rf]

Oh gawd, fox has picked up on the foreign influence story. At least they counter balance it with JimO, errrr... Oberg

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/01/10/russian-space-chief-claims-recent-failures-result-foreign-sabotage/?test=faces

[edkyle99]

Jan 16 decay, plus or minus a day or so.

Since I'm supposed to be on a commercial flight that day, I'm wondering what, if anything, the FAA does in response to a potential reentry debris issue, assuming, for example, that the debris zone was predicted to cross an area where airliners fly. 

In other words, could my flight be delayed? 

 - Ed Kyle 

[olasek]

No one cares about such reentries.
The probabilities are so small that they don't count at least not in aviation. The risk associated with being on any flight is inherently about million times larger than the risk associated with such reentry. In other words I would for example be much more concerned about your pilots not screwing anything up.