Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[Thomas ESA]

I am sorry. We had the results ready but Roscosmos refused to agree or verify them I am told. Please reporters, do not report that. We expect a compromise soon.

[ugordan]

Please reporters, do not report that. We expect a compromise soon.

A compromise? As in you'll be allowed to say that it did burn up and nothing more, or worse, "tweak" the actual facts?

[Chris Bergin]

Probably a good time to point out Thomas is not speaking in his native tongue, so let's be doubly careful with that and just see what happens.

As my Grandma says: "It'll all come out in the wash"

[Peter NASA]

Well it is their spacecraft. Maybe Roscosmos want to be the ones to put a bookend of this.

[JimO]

Well it is their spacecraft. Maybe Roscosmos want to be the ones to put a bookend of this.

I have a more cynical interpretation but let's be patient and see what shows up.

Recall that Roskosmos has DECREED that the probe fell off the Chile coast
and cites the military [Zolotukhin] as the authority, even though Zolotukhin has
clarified he only was reporting an ESTIMATE based on ZERO actual tracking data.

[robertross]

Well it is their spacecraft. Maybe Roscosmos want to be the ones to put a bookend of this.

I have a more cynical interpretation but let's be patient and see what shows up.

Recall that Roskosmos has DECREED that the probe fell off the Chile coast
and cites the military [Zolotukhin] as the authority, even though Zolotukhin has
clarified he only was reporting an ESTIMATE based on ZERO actual tracking data.

Yes exactly - how much backpeddling can they afford to do to save face.

Oh well. As much I would like to know the final results from ESA, luckily nobody got hurt on the ground, so to me the 'show' is over.

Russia still has a mess on their hands to fix over there, let's hope some good will come out of all this.

[input~2]

Another Russian satellite just about to reenter
Kosmos 2176
Predicted Reentry Time:     17 JAN 2012 @ 22:55 UTC ± 4 hours
source: http://reentrynews.aero.org/1992003a.html

[ChileVerde]

Does Kommersant say that? I did a major study on near Earth objects (i.e. asteroids) and we never heard about using radar in the Marshall Islands for that purpose. Sounds like a made up factoid to me.

The quotation is accurate, but you put your finger right on the journalistic atrocity -- speculation without actually talking with anybody who has ever done asteroid radar obs.

Who can we talk directly to for THIS particular project who can state that there was no Kwaj participation?

Do Kwaj radars even have near-zenith pointing capabilities?

On the Kwaj-asteroid conncection, see http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2012/0240.html

On the other hand, it is quite believable that one of the Kwajalein radars did illuminate PG as part of its space surveillance/intelligence function.

As Blackstar says, the US doesn't use those radars for asteroid imaging, though I suppose that special arrangements could be made for one passing really close.

[JimO]

Does Kommersant say that? I did a major study on near Earth objects (i.e. asteroids) and we never heard about using radar in the Marshall Islands for that purpose. Sounds like a made up factoid to me.

The quotation is accurate, but you put your finger right on the journalistic atrocity -- speculation without actually talking with anybody who has ever done asteroid radar obs.

Who can we talk directly to for THIS particular project who can state that there was no Kwaj participation?

Do Kwaj radars even have near-zenith pointing capabilities?

On the Kwaj-asteroid conncection, see http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2012/0240.html

On the other hand, it is quite believable that one of the Kwajalein radars did illuminate PG as part of its space surveillance/intelligence function.

As Blackstar says, the US doesn't use those radars for asteroid imaging, though I suppose that special arrangements could be made for one passing really close.

It is my information that Kwaj obs of the asteroid were impossible during the time of the Phobos-grunt flyovers. Not even in the sky.

Russian Probe Crash Sparks New Controversy
POSTED BY: JAMES OBERG  /  TUE, JANUARY 17, 2012 // POSTED APPROX 22:00 GMT

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/aerospace/space-flight/russian-probe-crash-sparks-new-controversy

See also comment at http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-seeks-proof-us-zapped-fobos/451204.html

[Blackstar]

Well, I asked a well-known planetary radar guy about this and he was unaware of Marshall Island radars _ever_ being used for asteroid observations, although he says it is possible.

Apparently that radar has been used for meteor observations, but a meteor is not an asteroid, and my guess is that they probably see meteors simply by chance, when the radar is operating.

[veblen]

Poor F-G didn't get the chance but Russian space PR is totally spun up. Shows you where their priorities lie:)

[Prober]

Well it is their spacecraft. Maybe Roscosmos want to be the ones to put a bookend of this.

I have a more cynical interpretation but let's be patient and see what shows up.

Recall that Roskosmos has DECREED that the probe fell off the Chile coast
and cites the military [Zolotukhin] as the authority, even though Zolotukhin has
clarified he only was reporting an ESTIMATE based on ZERO actual tracking data.

Yes exactly - how much backpeddling can they afford to do to save face.

Oh well. As much I would like to know the final results from ESA, luckily nobody got hurt on the ground, so to me the 'show' is over.

Russia still has a mess on their hands to fix over there, let's hope some good will come out of all this.

Good will?   The Russian story about the Radar is on the AP now, and everywhere. 

My question is if those who posted the story in Russia are so stupid not to know the story would travel all over this world?   They should be aware these "hints" of the USA doing something to their spacecraft are "Offensive".

edit: forgot ? mark

[Chris Bergin]

Result:

"@esaoperations: ESA's Thomas Reiter states that #phobosgrunt reentry perfectly in line with ESA & Roscosmos predictions #spacedebris"

[Chris Bergin]

It seems the Thomas Reiter comment came during a speech on ESA in general at a media briefing.

"Media briefing (German) bit.ly/wJFC8u | Reiter's PPT slidesha.re/cNlkWs".

I wonder if we still yet have a specific statement to come from ESA.

[dcporter]

Russia wants to release a statement, but a satellite dish in the Azores broadcasting reruns of American Idol keeps interfering with their transmission.

[ADC9]

Result:

"@esaoperations: ESA's Thomas Reiter states that #phobosgrunt reentry perfectly in line with ESA & Roscosmos predictions #spacedebris"

So now we can wave goodbye to the Americans thinking it landed on Pele's house?

[Chris Bergin]

Let's keep the jokes to a minimum. There's a lot of people with serious facial expressions following this thread.

[JimO]

Result:

"@esaoperations: ESA's Thomas Reiter states that #phobosgrunt reentry perfectly in line with ESA & Roscosmos predictions #spacedebris"

The ambiguity is, WHICH 'Roscosmos predictions'?

I did some tree-shaking overnight and was told that the entry possibilities still included a long arc of the last orbit.

We need the definitive DoD report based on space-based IR sensors -- where do we go to bang on the door?

[dcporter]

Let's keep the jokes to a minimum. There's a lot of people with serious facial expressions following this thread.

Ack sorry.  The snark barb was aimed at the finger-pointers who appear to be making a mockery of the situation.  My face is also long; it's a tragic loss of an awesome mission.

[JimO]

"16 January 2012   An update on Phobos-Grunt reentry from ESA's Space Debris Office, including an analysis on the reentry time and location, will be available shortly."

Another day, another delay. Any insights from those in the know, or those at least nearly so?