Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[ugordan]

We won't know it real time. The best we can hope for right now, IMHO, is observers along the ground track reporting if they see any fireballs or not.

[jcm]

Then how are we going to know when this re-enters?

When it fails to appear to the radars the next orbit round.

Or, possibly, if we get visual reports if it comes down over land

[InvalidAttitude]

Then how are we going to know when this re-enters?

Will the NORAD publicly announce it?

[kevin-rf]

We won't know it real time. The best we can hope for right now, IMHO, is observers along the ground track reporting if they see any fireballs or not.

Unless an NSF'r see's it and posts pictures in real time. Chris you really need to talk to the Russian's about getting a better live feed

[jcm]

Then how are we going to know when this re-enters?

When it fails to appear to the radars the next orbit round.

Or, possibly, if we get visual reports if it comes down over land

And then, eventually STRATCOM may bother to announce that the radars have stopped seeing it...
for UARS, it was quite a while before there was confirmation that it was down

[jcm]

We won't know it real time. The best we can hope for right now, IMHO, is observers along the ground track reporting if they see any fireballs or not.

Unless an NSF'r see's it and posts pictures in real time. Chris you really need to talk to the Russian's about getting a better live feed

And Ted Molczan really needs to upgrade the hobbyist network with a bunch
of big-ass radars.

[Chris Bergin]

Then how are we going to know when this re-enters?

When it fails to appear to the radars the next orbit round.

Or, possibly, if we get visual reports if it comes down over land

We won't know it real time. The best we can hope for right now, IMHO, is observers along the ground track reporting if they see any fireballs or not.

Copy. Thank goodness we have experts on here, or some of us (like me!) would have been watching that track all day

Still kinda apt to follow it on the track as it's clearly into its last moments, but everyone keep an eye out for observations/confirmations.

[Chris Bergin]

Now over the Pacific (FWIW).

[Chris Bergin]

@PhG_Reentry Phobos Grunt
China, South Korea, southern tip of Japan, #PhobosGrunt re-entry may be imminent, good time to look up over the next 20 minutes

[stu_boy]

Following it on my iPad satellite tracker app, it's descended from 139km to 134km quite rapidly. It's south of Japan now over the Pacific.

[jacqmans]

[BrunoQuiocca]

I've beem quiet all this time, but always reading the topic, as i didn't had anything to contribute. But now I'm ready here in South of Brazil. 24,97S 53,47W. Eyes on the sky...

[rickl]

for UARS, it was quite a while before there was confirmation that it was down

I remember that.  There were all kinds of conflicting reports for awhile. 

I was on a non-space forum, and commenters were saying things like, "Those people don't know what they're talking about.  They have no idea where it will come down."

Back to Phobos-Grunt, it looks like perigee on this orbit will be over Brazil or the Atlantic.

[Chris Bergin]

I've beem quiet all this time, but always reading the topic, as i didn't had anything to contribute. But now I'm ready here in South of Brazil. 24,97S 53,47W. Eyes on the sky...

Hey Bruno - thanks!

[jacqmans]

[Chris Bergin]

Going to swing north of New Zealand. I know we have lots of Kiwis on here, so (providing it's possible) check observations.

[Longhorn John]

We might get first confirmation if Bruno can't find FG in the sky when it passes over him?

[asdert]

Going to swing north of New Zealand. I know we have lots of Kiwis on here, so (providing it's possible) check observations.

Even if it doesn't burn yet, it might be visible. It is just sunrise there.

[ugordan]

We might get first confirmation if Bruno can't find FG in the sky when it passes over him?

It's daytime over there so not very likely.

[ChrisC]

Following it on my iPad satellite tracker app, it's descended from 139km to 134km quite rapidly. It's south of Japan now over the Pacific.

Just to be crystal clear, for those of you new to this or not reading the last two pages, any online tracker page or app or whatever IS NOT GIVING YOU LIVE DATA.  It's taking the orbital data snapshot from the recent past (google "TLE") and predicting where it will be.  The altitude will be wrong for sure, because the TLE had the object in orbit, and it's clearly coming down out of orbit now!

The only people who know where it really is right now are A) at military radar installations and B) on the ground watching it fly over.  And P-G is in daylight now so that makes spotting it from the ground nearly impossible.