Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[Prober]

SpaceGeek: wokeup and had to check the orbit.

Yep, same here, even though I have no chance of seeing it.   

Next best thing....

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=25544|37872|37375

[input~2]

USSTRATCOM reentry window reported at 2012-01-15 15:30:00 UTC:

1659 to 1747 UTC

Over the Pacific, then?

[Chris Bergin]

Could be. The middle of that prediction would be over the pacific.

[Chris Bergin]

Has just crossed the Atlantic, heading over Africa.
124Km altitude (stable).

[Ronsmytheiii]

Latest Roscosmos update:

http://www.spaceflight101.com/phobos-grunt-re-entry-information.html

[jacqmans]

Now over Africa

[jacqmans]

Close to Italy...

[deaville]

Try the Heavens Above site for a prediction on whether the re-entry will be visible at your location.
Meanwhile, I'm putting my tin hat on. 

[Chris Bergin]

Over the Ukraine at 134km. No re-entry yet.

[jacqmans]

[jcm]

Now passing over Kapustin Yar. New elset with epoch 12015.6316

 

[jcm]

Over the Ukraine at 134km. No re-entry yet.

Chris - how do you know "no re-entry yet"?

[Chris Bergin]

Over the Ukraine at 134km. No re-entry yet.

Chris - how do you know "no re-entry yet"?

Because it's now at 139 km.

[Svetoslav]

http://twitter.com/PhG_Reentry

New TLE data shows still on track, perhaps #PhobosGrunt re-entry may be a little earlier, stand-by

[Ronsmytheiii]

Over Kazakhstan at 139 km

[jacqmans]

Over Mongolia now  139 km

[JWag]

Because it's now at 139 km.

I'm the farthest thing from an expert, but I believe those heights are predictions based on the most recent observation, and may not take into account any predictions of decay rate.  So the height may be "assuming the vehicle is orbiting a perfectly spherical homogeneous body without any atmosphere".


edit: that said, the satflare.com site seems to be using a new TLE from twelve minutes ago, so it can't be too far off. 

[jacqmans]

137 km

[ugordan]

I believe those heights are predictions based on the most recent observation, and may not take into account any predictions of decay rate. 

I agree, it's bound to be only predictions based on the latest epoch.

[Chris Bergin]

Then how are we going to know when this re-enters?