Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[Chris Bergin]

So there's no chance this is coming back before Sunday?

[olasek]

So there's no chance this is coming back before Sunday?

There is always a chance specially if your time zone is in Hawaii...

[dcporter]

Because Russia doesn't have a missile capable of doing that, and there is no threat to the public from it as it stands now. So "can't" plus "don't need to" equals "no"

And re: the following post. I had presume international cooperation; "we" was meant to refer to "the group of nations upon whom it might fall. I assume that things would change fast if its landing zone focused in on a populated area. I'll search for the prior discussion, thanks.

[rdale]

The time it takes to coordinate, plan, and execute a missile strike is MUCH longer than the time it takes to confirm a reentry zone.

[Svetoslav]

Something interesting on Twitter:

http://twitpic.com/87c8h1

Orbital fluctuations ...

[olasek]

The time it takes to coordinate, plan, and execute a missile strike is MUCH longer than the time it takes to confirm a reentry zone.

Agreed. No chance there would be such a collective action.

[JimO]

So there's no chance this is coming back before Sunday?

Decay rate could increase if the vehicle lost narrow-end-forward orientation, and there are some scenarios in which this could happen at any time. But that maybe is good for only several hours earlier than expected.

[Prober]

Looks like she lost at least 4-5 miles on the high end.

Too Bad the ISS doesn't have a decent long range earth scope with transmission.  ISS passed above PG & could have gotten decent pics.

[JimO]

The Roskosmos map of their interval of possible fall is at
http://www.roscosmos.ru/img/news/2012_01_14_fobos_s.jpg,
and it shows North America is completely out of range.

[Lee Jay]

Current predictions are for it to deorbit 4 +/- 2 orbits before it passes over my house.

Time to put on your Army-surplus helmet?

Heck no...getting out my cameras!  However, looks like a miss.  The pass is 1/16 at about 00:53.

http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/phsrm/Fobos-Grunt_decay_estimates_v8.pdf

[Lee Jay]

The Roskosmos map of their interval of possible fall is at
http://www.roscosmos.ru/img/news/2012_01_14_fobos_s.jpg,
and it shows North America is completely out of range.

So, the launch site is still a possibility.   

[Prober]

The Roskosmos map of their interval of possible fall is at
http://www.roscosmos.ru/img/news/2012_01_14_fobos_s.jpg,
and it shows North America is completely out of range.

Do they really know their craft?    Don't think its dead.....think its getting  a boost.  Anyone else seeing that?

[Lee Jay]

Do they really know their craft?    Don't think its dead.....think its getting  a boost.  Anyone else seeing that?

Seeing it where?

[Sparky]

I see two passes over Peru, one across the southern edge, and then the northern border on the next pass(or it might be Equador, I can't tell). Can anyone calculate what times these reentries might happen? I would look it up myself, but the only internet device I have is my cellphone, and I'm limited on time.

Thanks

[JimO]

So, the launch site is still a possibility.   

You do know that this has happened, at least once -- in 1968??

[mmeijeri]

Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down?
That's not my department, says Wernher von Braun.

[olasek]

Can anyone calculate what times these reentries might happen? I would look it up myself, but the only internet device I have is my cellphone, and I'm limited on time.

This is a map showing a few last tracks with the red square showing position of PG at 21:51 Moscow time on 01/15. With this info you should have no problem estimating time at any other position of your choice, no complicated calculations required. 

[Lee Jay]

So, the launch site is still a possibility.   

You do know that this has happened, at least once -- in 1968??

I did not.

[JimO]

So, the launch site is still a possibility.   

You do know that this has happened, at least once -- in 1968??

I did not.

An off course Zond probe, returning from the moon, missed its landing zone and came down not far from its original launch pad.

[Chris Bergin]

Isn't that what SpaceX are trying to do?

And sign of official (Roscosmos) level info on this, or are they avoiding splashing it (no pun intended) all over their main site? (understandable)