Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[Chris Bergin]

NEWS RELEASE

Planetary Society
85 South Grand, Pasadena, CA 91105 (626) 793-5100 Fax (626) 793-5528
E-mail: [email protected]  Web: http://planetary.org


For Immediate Release: January 13, 2012

Contact:
Mat Kaplan (626) 793-5100 x 237
[email protected]




Final Fate of the Planetary Society's Phobos LIFE Biomodule


Worldwide members of the Planetary Society await the final fate of the Phobos LIFE (Living Interplanetary Flight Experiment) biomodule. Intended to share a roundtrip to Mars' moon Phobos, the tiny experiment became stuck in low Earth orbit when its host--the Russian Phobos-Grunt spacecraft--failed to set out across interplanetary space. Phobos-Grunt is now expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere as soon as this coming weekend. Trackers won't be able to predict where debris may fall until just a few hours before the event, so it's impossible to say whether the biomodule will be recovered.

Planetary Society Chief Executive Officer Bill Nye leads the deep concern regarding the ultimate outcome of this mission. "What we've seen is heartbreaking reinforcement of an oft-repeated maxim. Space is hard! We are disappointed that our remarkable test of the hardiness of living organisms will not get the 34 months in deep space we had hoped for," said Mr. Nye. "Still, we are very proud to have been a part of this mission. We're grateful to Roscosmos for incorporating our experiment in their spacecraft. We also offer our condolences to the China National Space Administration; it's their first Mars mission and a disappointment." Like Phobos LIFE, the Yinghuo-1 orbiter hoped to catch a ride to Mars on Phobos-Grunt.

The Society's Director of Projects, Bruce Betts, is following developments very closely. Dr. Betts has served as the LIFE Experiment Manager for both the highly successful Shuttle LIFE mission last spring, and for Phobos Grunt. "Because we can't predict the details of the re-entry, we can't predict whether the Phobos LIFE biomodule will survive, and certainly we can't predict whether it will land somewhere it could be recovered," Betts commented.  "In the unlikely event the Phobos LIFE biomodule is recovered, we would want to study the organisms inside.  Though not the long deep space experience we had hoped for, there still will be scientific value to study of the organisms even after just two months in low Earth orbit."

Planetary Society Executive Director Emeritus Louis Friedman initiated the LIFE experiment and continues to play an important role. He points to the participation of scientists around the world as a lasting success story. "The Planetary Society has championed and often created innovative, low-cost science and education projects that engage the public in planetary exploration and global collaboration. LIFE is a terrific example of just this sort of endeavor, and I am sure we will try again on another mission."

Bill Nye insists that Phobos LIFE will not dampen the Society's dedication. "Rest assured that we will continue to press forward and seek answers to those deepest of questions: Where did we come from, and are we alone? If there's a mission like this with a unique way to explore the Solar System, we will always work to be part of it."

[ChrisC]

Link for the above press release:
http://planetary.org/about/press/releases/2012/0113_Phobos_LIFE_Set_to_Reenter_Earths.html

I'm a Planetary Society member and they have been working on the LIFE experiment for a long time, so it's heartbreaking to see it come to this end.  They don't have much luck with their (modest) missions.

[Lee Jay]

Nice overview compiled by Ted Molczan:

http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/phsrm/Fobos-Grunt_decay_estimates_v4.pdf

[bolun]

ESA coordinates international satellite reentry campaign
 
http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Space_Debris/SEMJS2KX3XG_0.html

[jacqmans]

On the situation with the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt"

14.01.2012

 As of January 14 spacecraft (SC) "Phobos-Grunt" is on the earth elliptical orbit with the following parameters:


- высота апогея (максимальная высота) – 174,2 км; - Apogee (maximum altitude) - 174.2 km;

- высота перигея (минимальная высота) – 149,7 км; - Perigee (minimum altitude) - 149.7 km;

- наклонение – 51,44 град.; - Inclination - 51.44 degrees.;

- период обращения – 87,57 мин. - Period - 87.57 min.


 The projected drop box residues of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" on Earth is determined by the dates from the 15th to 16th January, with a central point - 15 January at 21:51 GMT.  Possible area falling in the "band" of 51.4 degrees north latitude to 51.4 degrees south latitude is shown in the diagram.


 Operational Group is monitoring the convergence of the orbit of the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt."

[Prober]

PG is under 100 miles up, how long before she starts to burn?

Site shows a low of 90.7 miles just before Africa.

Site shows a high orbit of just under 104 miles up over Mongolia, now on a slide down again.



Edit high, low
                             

[JimO]

PG is under 100 miles up, how long before she starts to burn?

Better question might be, how long until one or both solar panels fold up, or tear off, throwing the vehicle into a tumble...

Also, we don't know what the state the insane autopilot left all the prop and engine valves in -- so decell creepage of prop could create novel combination of chemicals.

[JimO]

Will the Ph-G return capsule float?

[Svetoslav]

The P-G capsule doesn't have a chute

[kevin-rf]

Wow, of course the chances of a parachute deploying from the doomed reentry probe if it had one would probably be nil anyway.

[Svetoslav]

Correct. But the capsule has been designed to withstand hard landing. That's why we hope that it will crash on land so scientists could check the status of Phobos-LIFE

[Lee Jay]

Current predictions are for it to deorbit 4 +/- 2 orbits before it passes over my house.

[Ben the Space Brit]

Current predictions are for it to deorbit 4 +/- 2 orbits before it passes over my house.

Time to put on your Army-surplus helmet?

[JimO]

Will the Ph-G return capsule float?

Can we estimate its density based on its weight and dimensions -- is it less than, or greater than, 1 gram per CC?

[dcporter]

I bet this is a super-sore subject around here, so apologies if I'm stepping into space sacred ground, but since we proved we can, why don't we fire a missile at this thing and break it up into chunks that the atmosphere can more easily digest? (Aside from the fact that being showy about that kind of capability leads to arms races, and China doesn't seem to realize that you should only blow things up when reentry is about to clean up your mess?)

[rdale]

Because Russia doesn't have a missile capable of doing that, and there is no threat to the public from it as it stands now. So "can't" plus "don't need to" equals "no"

[olasek]

why don't we fire a missile at this thing and break it up into chunks

This was discussed here - because this is Russia's property and they would not look kindly on such a unilateral attempt. There are national sensibilities involved here.

[Jim]

PG is under 100 miles up, how long before she starts to burn?
                             

not until much lower, 70 miles or so

[olasek]

not until much lower, 70 miles or so

Yeah, something like that.
For example when Space Shuttle was flying, the entry interface was assumed to be 400,000 feet or about 120 km.

[JimO]

Will the Ph-G return capsule float?

Can we estimate its density based on its weight and dimensions -- is it less than, or greater than, 1 gram per CC?

If its mass is 11 kg as quoted on Zak's page,
and its volume is calculated off the drawings I've seen,
I get a volume of about 0.02 cubic meters, very roughly. 

That much water weighs 20 kg.

The capsule should float, if my REALLY rough
dimension estimates are anywhere near.

Can anybody provide better landing capsule dimensions?

ALSO -- is the capsule body watertight? Or is it 'open'
for entry cooling?