Author Topic: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest (Read 235083 times)

Chris Bergin · « **on:** 12/21/2011 08:36 pm »

Troubleshooting thread 1 was 460 posts and 160,000 reads, requiring troubleshooting thread 2, which reached 1057 posts and 213,000 reads, but we're no longer in troubleshooting for this poor spacecraft

This latest thread will cover the updates through to the spacecraft's re-entry (End of Mission - EOM).

Resources:

Pre-Launch:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15610.0

Launch Updates:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15610.165

Launch Article:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/11/live-zenit-2launch-fobos-grunt-sample-return-mission-to-phobos/

Post S/C Sep, leading into notes of a problem:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15610.330

Fobos-Grunt Issue Article:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/11/russian-engineers-stricken-fobos-grunt-spacecraft/

Troubleshooting Updates 2:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27289.0

Article: Fobos-Grunt recovery efforts underway after telemetry is received:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/11/live-fobos-grunt-recovery-efforts-underway/

Article: Hope lost for Fobos-Grunt – likely to re-entry early in New Year:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/12/hope-lost-fobos-grunt-re-entry-early-new-year/

Latter pages of Troubleshooting 2 thread covers re-entry notes - feel free to add important notes from that thread into this one.

This is a sad end, but on behalf of the site I'd like to note our appreciation for the amount of members who have provided excellent coverage of the ill-fated mission.

input~2 · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/22/2011 07:56 pm »

Using the last five elsets for Phobos-Grunt (epochs Dec 21 and Dec 22), SatEvo, with a mean solar flux of 125 (according to latest space weather predictions) indicates a re-entry date from January 10 to January 16.

Michael J · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/23/2011 01:09 pm »

Latest photo of Phobos-Grunt from Ralf Vandebergh taken December 29th:

http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2011/12/23/improved-view-phobos-grunt/

input~2 · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/23/2011 06:57 pm »

You mean November 29!

Michael J · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/24/2011 10:11 pm »

Quote from: input~2 on 12/23/2011 06:57 pm

You mean November 29!

I stand corrected...more coffee please

.

Michael J · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/26/2011 12:09 pm »

According to this article from Ria Novosti, preliminary data from JSpOC indicates that debris from Phobos Grunt could fall in Afghanistan on January 14th. (Google translated)

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2Fscience%2F20111226%2F526805514.html&act=url

ChileVerde · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/26/2011 01:51 pm »

Quote from: Michael J on 12/26/2011 12:09 pm

According to this article from Ria Novosti, preliminary data from JSpOC indicates that debris from Phobos Grunt could fall in Afghanistan on January 14th. (Google translated)

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2Fscience%2F20111226%2F526805514.html&act=url

What the TIP message actually says is that the decay is predicted for "2012-01-13 22:28:00 GMT +/- 264 Hours." Novosti left out the 11-day uncertainty.

FWIW, both SatEvo and STOAG have been holding on January 16 with a rule-of-thumb uncertainty of about 4 days.

Quaxo76 · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/26/2011 01:53 pm »

OK, I am the opposite of an expert on the matter, but... if they can't even know for sure the *day* when it will reenter, how can they know *where* it will fall - which depends largely not only on the date, but also the time of actual reentry?
Or was it a joke?

Cristian

ChileVerde · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/26/2011 01:59 pm »

Quote from: Quaxo76 on 12/26/2011 01:53 pm

OK, I am the opposite of an expert on the matter, but... if they can't even know for sure the *day* when it will reenter, how can they know *where* it will fall - which depends largely not only on the date, but also the time of actual reentry?
Or was it a joke?

Cristian

No, it's (http://ria.ru/science/20111226/526805514.html) just very bad journalism. They even specify the coordinates of the fall to the nearest tenth of a degree and say it's "not far from the city of Mirabad." Yech.

Michael J · « **Reply #9 on:** 12/26/2011 04:46 pm »

I chuckled when I saw this, but thought that I would post it anyways. Doubtless any predictions will be changed as PG's orbit decays.

Chris-A · « **Reply #10 on:** 12/26/2011 05:29 pm »

Orbital height information from Heavens Above.
http://www.heavens-above.com/OrbitHeight.aspx?satid=37872&startMJD=55870&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

Comga · « **Reply #11 on:** 12/27/2011 02:09 am »

Quote from: Chris-A on 12/26/2011 05:29 pm

Orbital height information from Heavens Above.
http://www.heavens-above.com/OrbitHeight.aspx?satid=37872

A better link is http://www.heavens-above.com/OrbitHeight.aspx?satid=37872&startMJD=55870&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET because the graphs start at the beginning of November, not the first of the year. You can get to this from the dedicated link on the home page.

JimO · « **Reply #12 on:** 12/29/2011 02:07 pm »

Some news on the on-going industry reform plans.

http://www.izvestia.ru/news/511046

Michael J · « **Reply #13 on:** 12/30/2011 10:25 pm »

New photos from Ralf dated December 28th: http://www.space.com/14088-russia-phobos-grunt-mars-probe-skywatcher-image.html

input~2 · « **Reply #14 on:** 12/31/2011 04:49 pm »

USSTRATCOM central re-entry date is now January 15 (was January 13)

Sparky · « **Reply #15 on:** 01/03/2012 05:33 am »

I'm going to be in Peru about then. I'll keep an eye on the sky and a camera at the ready in case it reenters over South America.

JimO · « **Reply #16 on:** 01/04/2012 10:56 am »

Russia's 'Aerospace Defense Command' has just woken up from post New Years party slumber, it seems:

Фобос-Грунт" упадет на Землю 15 января, сообщает Минобороны РФ
14:43 04/01/2012 // http://www.ria.ru/science/20120104/532680156.html

Edit by Mod for English translation: "Phobos-Grunt "will fall to Earth on January 15, said the Russian Federation Defense Ministry

input~2 · « **Reply #17 on:** 01/04/2012 02:31 pm »

Using the last elset for Phobos-Grunt (epoch January 4, 1203:40UTC), SatEvo, with a mean solar flux of 134 (according to latest space weather predictions) indicates a re-entry on January 16 (about 9pm UTC!

)

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #18 on:** 01/04/2012 02:35 pm »

AGI Aerospace e-mailed to note they have what is an excellent video of the mission, efforts to save the spacecraft and the re-entry scenario:

.

racshot65 · « **Reply #19 on:** 01/04/2012 03:50 pm »

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 01/04/2012 02:35 pm

AGI Aerospace e-mailed to note they have what is an excellent video of the mission, efforts to save the spacecraft and the re-entry scenario:

.

Thats really good, very professionally done.