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Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS by Chris Bergin on 15 Dec, 2011 19:34
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Ted O'Callahan sent me his article on the above, and it's a really good read, so linking it up...
Is there profit in outer space?
http://qn.som.yale.edu/content/there-profit-outer-space -
#1 by Spiff on 06 Jan, 2012 15:05
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Thank you, that was a very nice and insightfull read.
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#2 by tigerade on 06 Jan, 2012 17:27
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Good read there, puts the big picture into perspective.
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#3 by Robotbeat on 06 Jan, 2012 17:33
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Yeah, Bill Claybaugh is a pretty intelligent (maybe even wise) person. He's on the arocket list and is a voice of reason and extensive industry experience. Or at least something to tamp down some of the overly optimistic ideas on there. Sometimes a voice of pessimism is necessary or helpful. (Not that I know him very well, see comment below by Antares.)
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#4 by Antares on 06 Jan, 2012 20:25
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He's the scariest guy I've met in the industry. His "advice" when he was a Constellation guy at NASA, which I think I took correctly as a threat, was one of the reasons I stopped working on Constellation.
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#5 by tigerade on 06 Jan, 2012 20:49
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He's the scariest guy I've met in the industry. His "advice" when he was a Constellation guy at NASA, which I think I took correctly as a threat, was one of the reasons I stopped working on Constellation.
Hmm? explain. -
#6 by Antares on 07 Jan, 2012 03:13
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On the Internet? LMAO.
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#7 by manboy on 07 Jan, 2012 14:34
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On the Internet? LMAO.
So you discredit a man but refuse to explain why he ought to be discredited? -
#8 by Antares on 07 Jan, 2012 14:56
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Your username is not your given name too, so you understand the need for anonymity. Besides, I didn't intend it as discrediting, just a description and counterpoint to Robotbeat's. I believe what he says, obviously.
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#9 by Robotbeat on 08 Jan, 2012 04:22
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Your username is not your given name too, so you understand the need for anonymity. Besides, I didn't intend it as discrediting, just a description and counterpoint to Robotbeat's. I believe what he says, obviously.
Just in case anyone is confused, I have had no personal contact with Bill whatsoever, so I don't know what he's really like. -
#10 by vt_hokie on 09 Jan, 2012 02:55
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One thing is certain: it won't be cheap. Aerospace compensation can average $200,000 a year....
So, how do I get one of those elusive $200k jobs? I'd be more than happy to return to the aerospace biz for that!
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#11 by Robotbeat on 09 Jan, 2012 03:51
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One thing is certain: it won't be cheap. Aerospace compensation can average $200,000 a year....
I tend to think that the often thrown about figure of several hundred thousand is for "fully burdened" aerospace compensation, including benefits, HR overhead, etc.
So, how do I get one of those elusive $200k jobs? I'd be more than happy to return to the aerospace biz for that! -
#12 by BeanEstimator on 09 Jan, 2012 20:23
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He's the scariest guy I've met in the industry. His "advice" when he was a Constellation guy at NASA, which I think I took correctly as a threat, was one of the reasons I stopped working on Constellation.
Ha, this made me chuckle.
I've talked to Bill quite a few times, on a variety of different subjects. Mostly from the cost and schedule side. Even on CxP, from what I guess were the early days...to the end days...
He occasionally comes thru HQ as well. You can normally find him, or somebody else from Orbital at the STA meetings too...
I understand what you're saying, and I get the meaning. Either you've experienced it, or you haven't. It would be hard to explain.
I guess all I could offer is that this quote in the article from him about sums it up for me:
"With craft manufacture where you're making a few a year—and these are very complex, very high-energy devices that operate near materials and physical limits—the chance of accurately predicting how long it will take to develop these systems is, I think, near zero,"
I recall him mentioning this "theme" multiple times, either while I was presenting something that attempted to predict, or while somebody else was presenting something along the same lines. Ha.
That said, a pint with Bill is time well spent IMHO. Although he could be a bit "brash", I think he mostly meant well. To each their own.
Good article, great find OP. -
#13 by Antares on 10 Jan, 2012 03:17
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Good counterpoint. Maybe he was trying to give me legitimate advice - that if I was going to continue saying the things I was saying, that I needed to get out. He still strikes me as part of the "NASA will pick its winners based on personal relationships and not technical merit" crowd.
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#14 by Robotbeat on 10 Jan, 2012 03:54
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Good counterpoint. Maybe he was trying to give me legitimate advice - that if I was going to continue saying the things I was saying, that I needed to get out. He still strikes me as part of the "NASA will pick its winners based on personal relationships and not technical merit" crowd.
He may be a hardened cynic, you never know. -
#15 by BeanEstimator on 10 Jan, 2012 20:26
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Good counterpoint. Maybe he was trying to give me legitimate advice - that if I was going to continue saying the things I was saying, that I needed to get out. He still strikes me as part of the "NASA will pick its winners based on personal relationships and not technical merit" crowd.
For what its worth, I do think there is some truth in your hypothesis...
