Stratolaunch: General Company and Development Updates and Discussions

[kkattula]

Not that it hasn't been said before, but the contrast with "the SpaceX way" is stark

SpaceX: Minimalist launch pad - rails, pivoting hold-down block, strong-back/umbilical tower
Stratolaunch:  Maximum launch pad - a giant six jet engine aircraft

SpaceX: Two stages, one profile - up
Stratolaunch: Three stages, three profiles - suspended, aerodynamic flight, rocket flight.

SpaceX: ten versions of one engine in two flavors, sea level & vacuum
Stratolaunch: 11 engines of 3 types- turbofan, high altitude rocket and vacuum rocket
...

The aircraft is a launch pad in one paragraph and a stage in the next?  LOL.  Perhaps the runway is the true 'Minimalist launch pad'?

If SpaceX are doing the whole rocket, US engine is likely a Merlin Vac, so just another flavour of the booster engine.

[kkattula]

Other questions:

The engine cowls on the "Falcon 5".  Don't think they needed them "the first time".  Only the corner engines, the last 4 of 9, project beyond the tank diameter on the Falcon 9.

With a high altitude start, they probably want bigger nozzles for better Isp. Plus making them more aerodynamic will improve the carrier aitcraft range.

[kkattula]

...
Pegasus has a pretty small payload, about 10% of this new vehicle's. I expect many of the operational costs of air launch won't scale up with payload size.

It will probably cost way more than ten times as much to build this one-off, six engine, twin hulled behemoth than it cost to buy an old, used L-1011.

Still, one data point....

Building it is not an operational cost.

Apparently they've already bought two old used 747.

[Comga]

SpaceX: Minimalist launch pad - rails, pivoting hold-down block, strong-back/umbilical tower
Stratolaunch:  Maximum launch pad - a giant six jet engine aircraft

SpaceX: Two stages, one profile - up
Stratolaunch: Three stages, three profiles - suspended, aerodynamic flight, rocket flight.

SpaceX: ten versions of one engine in two flavors, sea level & vacuum
Stratolaunch: 11 engines of 3 types- turbofan, high altitude rocket and vacuum rocket
...

The aircraft is a launch pad in one paragraph and a stage in the next?  LOL.  Perhaps the runway is the true 'Minimalist launch pad'?

You are apparently very easy to make laugh.  That's good.
OK Leave out the word "stage" from the second.  The point remains.  Jet engines and wings are more complex than a rail car and strongback. The point about three profiles also remains.

kkatula: Good point on the larger engine bells.  That would pretty much demand that they space the engines far apart, requiring the cowlings.

As for buying two old 747s to canabalize and stitch together, I find that hard to believe.

[yinzer]

Like some others here, I am skeptical about the cost effectiveness of air launched rockets. Pegasus has been doing this for twenty years, and it is still expensive per pound. If air launch has potential, why hasn't Orbital Sciences put more effort into Pegasus' costs, instead of going after conventional liquid fuel rockets?

Space launch is such an interesting field. I wonder where computers or even airplanes would be if people in those fields were as used to drawing hasty generalizations from single data points.

"Sam Langley's Aerodrome didn't work out, so that obviously shows that heavier than air flight can't work"...

When checking out an idea costs $100M or more, data points are very hard to come by.

[Archibald]

Wow, just caught this one. Nice video, but many concerns.
I can understand where this one is going - they hope to make the mammoth carrier aircraft less expensive / risky by scaling up the White Knight II.
They based the rest of the system on two metrics - Falcon and Dragon standards.
The equation seems to be kind of
Virgin Galactic + Scaled + SpaceX = a winning combination.
Ok, I'm glad to see those innovative companies working together on an orbital system.
But seriously - they can do much better than that bizarre hybrid.
Developing such a giganormous machine just to launch a miserable 13 500 pounds to orbit ? Color me skeptical.

[manboy]

Launch everyday from everywhere: stratolaunch.com! The new project by Mr. Allen.

http://Http://www.stratolaunch.com

Pretty disappointed by this, I thought it might be something else.

[geza]

Like many of you, I do not believe that the slight operational advantage worth the effort. On the other hand, it is difficult to believe that Allen, Rutan & Musk & Griffin do this without serious analysis. Who to be trusted in this field, if not these gentlemen?

I think the key is that Rutan and t/Space consider vertical launch unexpectedly dangerous for non-astronaut humans. A malfunction during the early phase of flight results in falling back and the capsule has to escape from a fireball. A (contained) failure in air launch is much more benign: shut the engines down and separate the capsule for landing.

Burt believes that he figured out the safe (horizontal!) way to suborbital and wish to extend it for orbital flight to make human spaceflight routine. Sure, it does not make sense without full reusability. The first rocket stage we saw in the move is a fly-back one: As somebody has pointed out already, the position of the pretty small wing corresponds to the CG of an empty booster. One can dream about the resusability of the second stage also, as SpaceX does, even if it is not clear whether the mass budget is calculated accordingly.

So, I think the real dream here is the cheap and safe orbital human spaceflight. However, as Allen consider himself a conservative men, he announced the first step now, without the fanfares and the dreams. He probably knows that he will not be rich in this step more than on SETI research. Next time, with tourism.

[MP99]

Stratalaunch

That makes it sound like it's burrowing down rather than launching upwards!

Cheers, Martin

[AlexCam]

This is a technically viable concept. We know that from Pegasus and Orbital. I just cannot see its financial viability. Cost per lb to orbit will likely go up with this approach, not down. And the flexibility that an airlaunch provides in terms of inclination will not make up for the higher costs.

Sometimes I do not understand people like Paul Allen. He is a very smart guy and he is really enthusiastic about space flight. Projects that he should be doing should be high risk technically (in terms of project success) in order to push the boundaries, while in case of success they are game changes. Instead he is backing a project that has low to medium risk technically, but very high risk financially to succeed.

Paul, if you want to make the world happy, try your luck with the continuation of something like VentureStar. You have the money and it was a viable concept. If you succeed, you may have just changed how spaceflight is done.

[thomson]

I find this very exciting. Regardless of Stratolaunch success or failure, that is another revenue stream for SpaceX, which increases SpaceX chances of succeeding. IMHO Musk has the most ambitious plans regarding space AFAIK and anything that helps achive his vision is a good thing.

Did they mention maximum altitude this plane can reach? What about launch altitude?

I'm a bit sceptical about flight within 5 years. Although I'm complete layman, I never heard of any aerospace project that was completed sooner than planned. I think 5 years is really a lower bound estimate. I still remember Rutan saying something about routine flights within 2 years. I think it was back in 2005 or 2006.

Anyway, it would be amazing to see this beast in the air. I wish them all the best.

[Eerie]

It seems like Burt Rutan and Elon Musk are there because, being contractors, they have nothing to lose. They will be paid to do what they like to do (building planes and rockets) and gain PR and experience regardless of the success of the whole enterprise.

What's in it for Paul Allen I don't know.

[AlexCam]

I find this very exciting. Regardless of Stratolaunch success or failure, that is another revenue stream for SpaceX, which increases SpaceX chances of succeeding. IMHO Musk has the most ambitious plans regarding space AFAIK and anything that helps achive his vision is a good thing.

In the next few years it won't be any help for SpaceX. We can assume some manpower will have to go on this project, so it will be more of a drain than a resource.

[Garrett]

Ok, from what I gather this is a long-term project, right? I mean, Allen mentioned a first test of the carrier craft in 2015 and maybe first flights of the launch system around the end of the decade. Most of us here can translate that as first tests of the carrier aircraft by the end of the decade and first flights of the launch system around the middle of the 2020's.

Using those dates to put things into perspective, issues such as potential customers and no need for new launch vehicles just don't seem relevant for the time being. This is a concept. It's validity and ultimate goals probably won't be known, by us or Allen, for another 10 years. This project depends a lot on the progress of space travel over the next decade. To me, this is a launch system for 2025.

With SpaceShipOne, Allen and Rutan started talking about the idea in the mid 90's I think, but it was all kept under wraps until the final moments. That was possible because the project was relatively small. This is too big a project to keep secret, so I presume they've just decided to beat the rumours by making an advanced announcement.

I'm very excited about this idea. The equation Scaled + SpaceX + Dynetics makes a space enthusiast like me drool! The naysayers and nitpickers can drone all they like, that's their problem. I usually try to avoid inviting such people to my barbecue.

For those who think the project looks strange: so what? I actually think it's a pretty conservative evolution of existing technology.

For those who think it's just a scaled up Pegasus: I remind you that the Saturn V was just a scaled-up soda bottle launcher. Ok, maybe a scaled-up multi-stage soda bottle launcher. Absurd comparison? Definitely. Scaling up and/or modifying existing designs is part of progress. It's called standing on the shoulders of giants.

[Garrett]

In the next few years it won't be any help for SpaceX. We can assume some manpower will have to go on this project, so it will be more of a drain than a resource.

What a silly statement. Projects like this (and Falcon Heavy, Red Dragon, etc.) allow SpaceX to keep a large R&D team employed and busy. Companies that don't invest in R&D, even on projects that later get cancelled, are doomed to failure or at the very best to only occupy a small part of the market.

SpaceX's involvement in projects such as this appears to me to be analogous to Google's Lab projects. Not all of those projects succeed (Buzz, Wave, Notebook, ...) while others become quasi-household names (Google Maps, Google Scholar). Somehow I think the notion that those projects, and Google's other initiatives, have somehow drained Google's resources, would be met with bemusement from those at Google.
I would not be surprised if the Google research model helped inspire Musk's vision of how R&D should work.

[John Duncan]

I would have rather seen new payloads too.  We have enough launcher options either in service or nearly that way.

Of course the snarky comment that wants to get out is this:

With Griffin on the board, no wonder the thing is so big.

(ducks)

[pippin]

I wonder where computers or even airplanes would be if people in those fields were as used to drawing hasty generalizations from single data points.

"Sam Langley's Aerodrome didn't work out, so that obviously shows that heavier than air flight can't work"...

How about
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers", Thomas J. Watson, IBM CEO, 1943

[corrodedNut]

So this Falcon will have feathers?

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news/awx/2011/12/13/awx_12_13_2011_p0-405946.xml&headline=Stratolaunch%20Aims%20to%20Break%20Affordability%20Barrier&next=10

"Rutan said the human-rated Falcon system will fly the “feathered” low-drag re-entry profile he used for SpaceShipOne."

"What type of thermal protective system the man-rated winged Falcon will require is unclear."

[Rocket Science]

Might make an interesting airliner project to compete with the A380…

[Ben the Space Brit]

I have to say that, at first blush, I'm not overly impressed with this concept.  It's high risk and really, at the current time, can only further dilute the MLV market.

That said, the really exciting thing is the introduction of a reusable air-breathing first stage into a much heavier lifter than ever before.  I think it's good to see that the pioneers and entrepeneurs are seriously looking at scaling up things like air launch in an attempt to get the cost per pound to orbit down.

Ultimately, I think it is the technology and concept that will be significant, whether or not the Stratolaunch-F5 ever actually flies.