Stratolaunch: General Company and Development Updates and Discussions

[Star One]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

Companies are fully alive until the day they shut down.  You keep trying until you're told it's over.  So they made an announcement, maybe started tentative plans - see how much traction they could get.

If there was sufficient take up, maybe it would have helped. Apparently there wasn't.

Signs point to it being more likely that the people involved now just aren’t interested in what Paul Allen wanted to achieve and are now having a fire sale of everything.

What signs?   If Allen wanted to, he could have added provisions in the bylaws to prevent this.

People set up estates to operate all sorts of non profitable endeavors all the time.  They set up a foundation, it has money, people get salaries, sometimes there's enough money to even make money on interest...

He hasn't done that.  That's a sign.

It was my understanding he died rather suddenly from his illness and perhaps he hadn’t had the chance to sign off on it because of this and his prior ill health.

[Unrulycow]

Aside from VG, what other buyers are potentially on the table though? The airport limitation is brutal by itself, being a single example of its kind is another.

Generation Go doesn't have the cash, and their third gen rocket was baselining a DC-10 for cost reasons. Orbital has been wanting to get away from maintaining their L-1011, but buying the Roc would simply switch one iron albatross for another...

The one obvious example might be for air drop work for flight experiments, as the USAF and NASA have some desire to move away from the B-52's being used for drop tests, with assorted hypersonic vehicle tests expected (though at a very low rate if recent history is any measure). Though the operational reasons for wanting to move away from B-52's aren't necessarily solved by switching to Roc though. Plus, who ends up being the owner/operator in that scenario, some compartmented LLC owned by VG or The SpaceShip Company or perhaps Northrop Grumman/Skunk Works? Plus, the recent B-52 re-engining push may make switching to another platform even less attractive.

Who else is likely to step up and buy/use Roc then?

What about SNC?  They once planned on Dream Chaser launching from it.

[russianhalo117]

Aside from VG, what other buyers are potentially on the table though? The airport limitation is brutal by itself, being a single example of its kind is another.

Generation Go doesn't have the cash, and their third gen rocket was baselining a DC-10 for cost reasons. Orbital has been wanting to get away from maintaining their L-1011, but buying the Roc would simply switch one iron albatross for another...

The one obvious example might be for air drop work for flight experiments, as the USAF and NASA have some desire to move away from the B-52's being used for drop tests, with assorted hypersonic vehicle tests expected (though at a very low rate if recent history is any measure). Though the operational reasons for wanting to move away from B-52's aren't necessarily solved by switching to Roc though. Plus, who ends up being the owner/operator in that scenario, some compartmented LLC owned by VG or The SpaceShip Company or perhaps Northrop Grumman/Skunk Works? Plus, the recent B-52 re-engining push may make switching to another platform even less attractive.

Who else is likely to step up and buy/use Roc then?

What about SNC?  They once planned on Dream Chaser launching from it.

DC changed and is not operationally designed to be dropped. Even ETA required an adapter for drop tests.

[meekGee]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

Companies are fully alive until the day they shut down.  You keep trying until you're told it's over.  So they made an announcement, maybe started tentative plans - see how much traction they could get.

If there was sufficient take up, maybe it would have helped. Apparently there wasn't.

Signs point to it being more likely that the people involved now just aren’t interested in what Paul Allen wanted to achieve and are now having a fire sale of everything.

What signs?   If Allen wanted to, he could have added provisions in the bylaws to prevent this.

People set up estates to operate all sorts of non profitable endeavors all the time.  They set up a foundation, it has money, people get salaries, sometimes there's enough money to even make money on interest...

He hasn't done that.  That's a sign.

It was my understanding he died rather suddenly from his illness and perhaps he hadn’t had the chance to sign off on it because of this and his prior ill health.

Shrug.  Believe what you will.  8 years, and they didn't have any concrete orbital programs under way.   You can choose to shoot the messenger and bemoan how his heirs are disrespectful..  it doesn't make it a viable system.   Not all ideas are good.  This conversation is no longer constructive, probably has never been...  I'm out.

[jarmumd]

If I had a billion dollars, lol...  In my time working with strato, the "best" configuration was when we used a SpaceX rocket.  8 years ago SpaceX was on Fv1.1 and had not landed a booster yet.  Quite a bit has changed.  Now, I would buy SpaceX's used cores, modify them in-house for air drop (chines, fins, remove engines, etc), buy second stage and fairing new.  I think it would be a good way for SpaceX to get rid of end-of-life boosters.  Reduce the payload from 13500 to 10000lb (4500 kg), and you are in a portion of the launch segment without too many other players (certainly not american).

I think one common misconception here is that this "problem" was too hard.  From my perspective we changed direction too many times.

Is this the most efficient way to orbit?  no.  But it may be an option.

[libra]

We need a separated thread with the name of "Stratolaunch POD - [insert your idea here]. Shame there is that airport limitation and only one aircraft, otherwise imagine the number of different pods that could be inserted below that aircraft
- Military cargo pod (how many Abrams tanks ? helicopters ? F-16s ? inside)
- Civil cargo pod
- passengers pod 
- NASA science pod
- firefighting pod (heck, they use 747s and DC-10s as firebombers... 220 mt of water !!) 

And on, and on. "only the sky is the limit" as they say.

[Star One]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

Companies are fully alive until the day they shut down.  You keep trying until you're told it's over.  So they made an announcement, maybe started tentative plans - see how much traction they could get.

If there was sufficient take up, maybe it would have helped. Apparently there wasn't.

Signs point to it being more likely that the people involved now just aren’t interested in what Paul Allen wanted to achieve and are now having a fire sale of everything.

What signs?   If Allen wanted to, he could have added provisions in the bylaws to prevent this.

People set up estates to operate all sorts of non profitable endeavors all the time.  They set up a foundation, it has money, people get salaries, sometimes there's enough money to even make money on interest...

He hasn't done that.  That's a sign.

It was my understanding he died rather suddenly from his illness and perhaps he hadn’t had the chance to sign off on it because of this and his prior ill health.

Shrug.  Believe what you will.  8 years, and they didn't have any concrete orbital programs under way.   You can choose to shoot the messenger and bemoan how his heirs are disrespectful..  it doesn't make it a viable system.   Not all ideas are good.  This conversation is no longer constructive, probably has never been...  I'm out.

But you’re not a messenger of anyone just a poster arguing an opinion, as I am, doesn’t make me a messenger.

Jodi Allen is your messenger

I wasn’t aware that poster was Jodi Allen or a spokesman for her.

[meekGee]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

Companies are fully alive until the day they shut down.  You keep trying until you're told it's over.  So they made an announcement, maybe started tentative plans - see how much traction they could get.

If there was sufficient take up, maybe it would have helped. Apparently there wasn't.

Signs point to it being more likely that the people involved now just aren’t interested in what Paul Allen wanted to achieve and are now having a fire sale of everything.

What signs?   If Allen wanted to, he could have added provisions in the bylaws to prevent this.

People set up estates to operate all sorts of non profitable endeavors all the time.  They set up a foundation, it has money, people get salaries, sometimes there's enough money to even make money on interest...

He hasn't done that.  That's a sign.

It was my understanding he died rather suddenly from his illness and perhaps he hadn’t had the chance to sign off on it because of this and his prior ill health.

Shrug.  Believe what you will.  8 years, and they didn't have any concrete orbital programs under way.   You can choose to shoot the messenger and bemoan how his heirs are disrespectful..  it doesn't make it a viable system.   Not all ideas are good.  This conversation is no longer constructive, probably has never been...  I'm out.

But you’re not a messenger of anyone just a poster arguing an opinion, as I am, doesn’t make me a messenger.

Jodi Allen is your messenger

I wasn’t aware that poster was Jodi Allen or a spokesman for her.

This whole bit of conversation started with people going on about how she's disrespecting his wishes, said people having no notion as to what was said between them before he died.

I'm saying, it's a dead horse, and it was already that way before Jody had to take over, said people should lay off.

[GWH]

I'm saying, it's a dead horse, and it was already that way before Jody had to take over, said people should lay off.

You keep insisting the company was a dead horse halted in orbital development due to your own personal doubts on the concept. That statement is demonstratively false.

Stratolaunch was in full development of propulsion for orbital hardware.
https://spacenews.com/stratolaunch-tests-key-engine-component/

The PGA engine was a staged combustion hydrolox engine - 3rd or 4th largest engine of this type by thrust. Only the SSME, Energria's RD-0120 and maybe H-II's LE-7 engine are/were larger.

In the past few years Stratolaunch had doubled down - instead of trying to partner with a launch vehicle supplier they turned to vertical integration by developing their own launch vehicles in house and did so with tangible progress.  That wasn't attempt to keep the lights on.
When Paul Allen passed those programs were shuttered.

[meekGee]

I'm saying, it's a dead horse, and it was already that way before Jody had to take over, said people should lay off.

You keep insisting the company was a dead horse halted in orbital development due to your own personal doubts on the concept. That statement is demonstratively false.

Stratolaunch was in full development of propulsion for orbital hardware.
https://spacenews.com/stratolaunch-tests-key-engine-component/

The PGA engine was a staged combustion hydrolox engine - 3rd or 4th largest engine of this type by thrust. Only the SSME, Energria's RD-0120 and maybe H-II's LE-7 engine are/were larger.

In the past few years Stratolaunch had doubled down - instead of trying to partner with a launch vehicle supplier they turned to vertical integration by developing their own launch vehicles in house and did so with tangible progress.  That wasn't attempt to keep the lights on.
When Paul Allen passed those programs were shuttered.

Like I said, this conversation can no longer serve a useful purpose...

I'm arguing against faith in what could have been... that's an unwinnable situation as far as changing minds goes, and unlosable situation as far as real world outcome.

I am glad air drop received enough funding to be given a chance. That's that.

[JEF_300]

I am glad air drop received enough funding to be given a chance. That's that.

Well, I'm glad that you arbitrarily decided that Stratolaunch got enough funding.

I'm sorry, that was a bit snarky, and I don't really want to get into this conversation about whether or not this is the correct things to do with Stratolaunch. But your last sentence there bothered me.

Why is THIS enough?

Is it because it got a lot of development funding? One could argue that you can't judge the worth of a work until it's complete.
Is it because it received good funding for 8 years and accomplished little? That doesn't consider the other unexpected hurdles Stratolaunch faced that other providers haven't, like SpaceX pulling out on them.
Is it because it doesn't deserve more? Because then that's become an opinion.

I'm not trying to say your necessarily wrong, and I don't want to quibble over this point by point.
I just don't think any of us can presume to know how much "enough" is.

[meekGee]

I am glad air drop received enough funding to be given a chance. That's that.

Well, I'm glad that you arbitrarily decided that Stratolaunch got enough of a chance.

I'm sorry, that was a bit snarky, and I don't really want to get into this conversation about whether or not this is the correct things to do with Stratolaunch. But your last sentence there bothered me.

Why is THIS enough?

Is it because it got a lot of development funding? One could argue that you can't judge the worth of a work until it's complete.
Is it because it received good funding for 8 years and accomplished little? That doesn't consider the other unexpected hurdles Stratolaunch faced that other providers haven't, like SpaceX pulling out on them.
Is it because it doesn't deserve more? Because then that's become an opinion.

I'm not trying to say your necessarily wrong, I just don't think any of us can presume to know how much "enough" is.

I said air drop in general.  Between virgin orbit, galactic, SL, and good old Pegasus - if there's a chance airdrop can make sense (in any of the permutations), it's gotten it.

[ZChris13]

true airdrop has never been tried, that wasn't real airdrop

[Asteroza]

We need a separated thread with the name of "Stratolaunch POD - [insert your idea here]. Shame there is that airport limitation and only one aircraft, otherwise imagine the number of different pods that could be inserted below that aircraft
- Military cargo pod (how many Abrams tanks ? helicopters ? F-16s ? inside)
- Civil cargo pod
- passengers pod 
- NASA science pod
- firefighting pod (heck, they use 747s and DC-10s as firebombers... 220 mt of water !!) 

And on, and on. "only the sky is the limit" as they say.

Hrm, based in California, a firefighting pod might actually make sense. Those jumbotankers are predicated on using cheap used aircraft for conversion, and well, the Roc exists and slapping a pod on that suddenly loses mass in flight is something the Roc was designed to handle, plus can use cheap used 747 parts.

Makes more sense than cargo pods in terms of an existing known market. Spend the summer firefighting, spend the winter doing flight test air drop work. That might be a closing business plan, if you can pick up the Roc and hangar for cheap...

[Asteroza]

true airdrop has never been tried, that wasn't real airdrop

Are we doing the no true Scotsman thing now?

[libra]

We need a separated thread with the name of "Stratolaunch POD - [insert your idea here]. Shame there is that airport limitation and only one aircraft, otherwise imagine the number of different pods that could be inserted below that aircraft
- Military cargo pod (how many Abrams tanks ? helicopters ? F-16s ? inside)
- Civil cargo pod
- passengers pod 
- NASA science pod
- firefighting pod (heck, they use 747s and DC-10s as firebombers... 220 mt of water !!) 

And on, and on. "only the sky is the limit" as they say.

Hrm, based in California, a firefighting pod might actually make sense. Those jumbotankers are predicated on using cheap used aircraft for conversion, and well, the Roc exists and slapping a pod on that suddenly loses mass in flight is something the Roc was designed to handle, plus can use cheap used 747 parts.

Makes more sense than cargo pods in terms of an existing known market. Spend the summer firefighting, spend the winter doing flight test air drop work. That might be a closing business plan, if you can pick up the Roc and hangar for cheap...

My post was not 100% serious (I discussed the matter elsewhere) but your answer is brilliant, really. Good point about the "dropping water / dropping rocket analogy". Also the case of the Martin Mars: that old flying boat and lumbering giant had absolutely NOT been build for firefighting, yet it nicely endured 50 years of that harrowing task.

[Yggdrasill]

Firefighting is not realistic, though. Runway needs are too specialized. If it has to fly a few hours each way between the nearest suitable runway and the fire, you're not delivering very many tons of water per hour...

[speedevil]

If I had a billion dollars, lol...  In my time working with strato, the "best" configuration was when we used a SpaceX rocket.  8 years ago SpaceX was on Fv1.1 and had not landed a booster yet.  Quite a bit has changed.  Now, I would buy SpaceX's used cores, modify them in-house for air drop (chines, fins, remove engines, etc), buy second stage and fairing new.  I think it would be a good way for SpaceX to get rid of end-of-life boosters.  Reduce the payload from 13500 to 10000lb (4500 kg), and you are in a portion of the launch segment without too many other players (certainly not american).

Unfortunately, it's 2019, not 2017 where it could be argued they weren't serious about reusing boosters.
It is reasonably arguable that Starship may not work for several years - perhaps even beyond 2022.
This means that they pretty much have a job for all of the landed stages, both directly and as insurance in case SS doesn't work or has fleet-grounding issues after flight.

And while they might be willing to sell them after SS works, it would certainly only be with some agreement, or at a price that locks you out of competing with them. (or at least reduces it).

Maybe add a very large net , and go fishing for Arianes.
I wish the 'flying' announcement  was from 1999, not 2019.

[robert_d]

Firefighting is not realistic, though. Runway needs are too specialized. If it has to fly a few hours each way between the nearest suitable runway and the fire, you're not delivering very many tons of water per hour...

How are the water resources at Mohave airport? They could have pre-filled pods waiting. Land, quick disconnect and reconnect to new pod, maybe.

More radical would be to make the whole thing a float plane. Then it could fly out of the closest large lake. Would need a new base on the water somewhere, so way too expensive to consider.

[robert_d]

Firefighting is not realistic, though. Runway needs are too specialized. If it has to fly a few hours each way between the nearest suitable runway and the fire, you're not delivering very many tons of water per hour...

How are the water resources at Mohave airport? They could have pre-filled pods waiting. Land, quick disconnect and reconnect to new pod, maybe.

More radical would be to make the whole thing a float plane. Then it could fly out of the closest large lake. Would need a new base on the water somewhere, so way too expensive to consider.

Ooor...
Have it lift pre-filled UAV's that could not take off on their own. UAV would actually do the water drop, then fly back to Mohave. Roc would only need to lift each to a general heading and altitude where it could reach the target, then quickly return to pick up the next UAV. Multiple UAV's would allow multiple targets to be attacked in a day.