Stratolaunch: General Company and Development Updates and Discussions

[jstrotha0975]

I still think Stratolaunch would benefit Virgin Galactic for future expansion. Use the 747 in Europe and the Stratolaunch in the US. Could always get another 747 for Asia.

[Lars-J]

One item holding up the sale of Stratolaunch, according to one of the people, is an internal disagreement between CEO Jean Floyd and Paul Allen's sister Jody Allen, who serves as the chair of Vulcan as well as the executor of his estates. While Floyd appears to be petitioning that Vulcan keep the Stratolaunch program alive, especially by retaining the company's intellectual property, Jody Allen would like to sell the company outright, the person said.

 No surprise there. Incredible and sad that one would put so much trust in someone just because they are family.

From another angle is is incredibly sad that someone would leave their family with this lead balloon and financial black hole and expect that they would feel obliged to keep it afloat for sentimental reasons.

yeah, I’m sure the heirs to one of the richest people in the world are hurting for cash...

Sometimes a bad idea is just a bad idea. Why should they feel obliged to continue it? If you are sentimental, is Allen’s memory better served by stretching this out?

[Robotbeat]

One item holding up the sale of Stratolaunch, according to one of the people, is an internal disagreement between CEO Jean Floyd and Paul Allen's sister Jody Allen, who serves as the chair of Vulcan as well as the executor of his estates. While Floyd appears to be petitioning that Vulcan keep the Stratolaunch program alive, especially by retaining the company's intellectual property, Jody Allen would like to sell the company outright, the person said.

 No surprise there. Incredible and sad that one would put so much trust in someone just because they are family.

From another angle is is incredibly sad that someone would leave their family with this lead balloon and financial black hole and expect that they would feel obliged to keep it afloat for sentimental reasons.

yeah, I’m sure the heirs to one of the richest people in the world are hurting for cash...

Sometimes a bad idea is just a bad idea. Why should they feel obliged to continue it? If you are sentimental, is Allen’s memory better served by stretching this out?

Yes. The hypersonic spaceplane also being developed was impressive.

Stratolaunch was doing good work up until Paul Allen’s death.

[Lars-J]

Sometimes a bad idea is just a bad idea. Why should they feel obliged to continue it? If you are sentimental, is Allen’s memory better served by stretching this out?

Yes. The hypersonic spaceplane also being developed was impressive.

It is easy to make powerpoint engineering look impressive. It doesn't make it realistic, nor practical.

Stratolaunch was doing good work up until Paul Allen’s death.

But... was it? Detach yourself from the "it looks cool" frame of mind. It was doing impressive work, sure, but not very useful work IMO. If it was so good, if it had a chance to be competitive, where are the buyers? This thread is full of reasonable objections to the whole concept. But Allen had been "sold" on the air-launch concept by Rutan, and there was no way he was going to back down. Few projects perfectly illustrate "sunk cost fallacy" as much as this one.

In the very unlikely event that there should turn out to be a useful niche for the aircraft, more power to them. Nobody wants to see so much work go to waste.

[Robotbeat]

Yes. They had an impressive engineering team assembled for the propulsion. It’s a shame.

[Star One]

Sometimes a bad idea is just a bad idea. Why should they feel obliged to continue it? If you are sentimental, is Allen’s memory better served by stretching this out?

Yes. The hypersonic spaceplane also being developed was impressive.

It is easy to make powerpoint engineering look impressive. It doesn't make it realistic, nor practical.

Stratolaunch was doing good work up until Paul Allen’s death.

But... was it? Detach yourself from the "it looks cool" frame of mind. It was doing impressive work, sure, but not very useful work IMO. If it was so good, if it had a chance to be competitive, where are the buyers? This thread is full of reasonable objections to the whole concept. But Allen had been "sold" on the air-launch concept by Rutan, and there was no way he was going to back down. Few projects perfectly illustrate "sunk cost fallacy" as much as this one.

In the very unlikely event that there should turn out to be a useful niche for the aircraft, more power to them. Nobody wants to see so much work go to waste.

And it is easy to sit behind the keyboard of a computer and be snarky about a project, it doesn’t however add much to the discussion or make your opinion any more valid than anyone else’s.

[JazzFan]

On the basis of supply and demand, what actual capability does the Stratolaunch supply and which company has a need for such a vehicle?

[Star One]

On the basis of supply and demand, what actual capability does the Stratolaunch supply and which company has a need for such a vehicle?

I’d of thought it would be of interest to VG being as they are supposedly proposing a much larger future vehicle than their current one.

[Yggdrasill]

Yes, Virgin Galactic is really the only party that could be expected to pay meaningful money for the plane. If you go below $10 million, you'd probably get interest from museums, smallsat launchers, etc.

I think the $400 million figure is crazy, though. One interested party is not exactly conducive to a bidding war... I'd guesstimate fair value to be more in the range $20-50 million.

[meekGee]

Sometimes a bad idea is just a bad idea. Why should they feel obliged to continue it? If you are sentimental, is Allen’s memory better served by stretching this out?

Yes. The hypersonic spaceplane also being developed was impressive.

It is easy to make powerpoint engineering look impressive. It doesn't make it realistic, nor practical.

Stratolaunch was doing good work up until Paul Allen’s death.

But... was it? Detach yourself from the "it looks cool" frame of mind. It was doing impressive work, sure, but not very useful work IMO. If it was so good, if it had a chance to be competitive, where are the buyers? This thread is full of reasonable objections to the whole concept. But Allen had been "sold" on the air-launch concept by Rutan, and there was no way he was going to back down. Few projects perfectly illustrate "sunk cost fallacy" as much as this one.

In the very unlikely event that there should turn out to be a useful niche for the aircraft, more power to them. Nobody wants to see so much work go to waste.

And it is easy to sit behind the keyboard of a computer and be snarky about a project, it doesn’t however add much to the discussion or make your opinion any more valid than anyone else’s.

Even easier to cheer and then bemoan and snipe at the people left to "continue" the project.

What do you know about Paul Allen's last wishes? Maybe he realized how dead end it was, but wanted to get it to flight status before pulling the plug?

It was a badly conceived project, lead by people who have a very skewed view of spaceflight.  It made no sense, ever.

Paul Allen was a very wealthy man with a soft spot for aviation. IMO he was taken for a ride, and I think he realized it eventually.

If he wanted it to continue, he could have left it to an aviation nut like Rutan, but we already know Rutan's willingness to do something with it.

[Rocket Science]

Respect is due to anyone who have taken on a project of great magnitude in aerospace whether proven later or not to have been viable. All have laid down a marker in history and contributed to database that many will draw upon. To not due so is indicative of one's lack of understanding, self accomplishment, demonstrating jealousy and shear pettiness...

[Star One]

Respect is due to anyone who have taken on a project of great magnitude in aerospace whether proven later or not to have been viable. All have laid down a marker in history and contributed to database that many will draw upon. To not due so is indicative of one's lack of understanding, self accomplishment, demonstrating jealousy and shear pettiness...

Precisely. The post above your one I find in very poor taste considering the gentleman in question is no longer around to defend his project.

[meekGee]

Respect is due to anyone who have taken on a project of great magnitude in aerospace whether proven later or not to have been viable. All have laid down a marker in history and contributed to database that many will draw upon. To not due so is indicative of one's lack of understanding, self accomplishment, demonstrating jealousy and shear pettiness...

Precisely. The post above your one I find in very poor taste considering the gentleman in question is no longer around to defend his project.

Sorry but you were disrespecting the current head of the very same company because you didn't like her decision.

Great mistakes happen even with the best of intentions.  Paul Allen had great intentions. So did Rutan.  So do all the advocates of air launch.  However - it turns out it's not a good way to launch payloads to orbits, especially not larger ones.

Stop casting everyone who tells you it's a bad idea with "unpatriotic" colors.

[Robotbeat]

She’s not a head of the company. She’s the manager of the estate, a family member only. Her only contribution is trying to shut everything down. The current CEO of Stratolaunch is much better qualified.

[meekGee]

She’s not a head of the company. She’s the manager of the estate, a family member only. Her only contribution is trying to shut everything down. The current CEO of Stratolaunch is much better qualified.

Yeah, but Paul Allen wasn't the CEO either, he was the investor.

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

[Asteroza]

Aside from VG, what other buyers are potentially on the table though? The airport limitation is brutal by itself, being a single example of its kind is another.

Generation Go doesn't have the cash, and their third gen rocket was baselining a DC-10 for cost reasons. Orbital has been wanting to get away from maintaining their L-1011, but buying the Roc would simply switch one iron albatross for another...

The one obvious example might be for air drop work for flight experiments, as the USAF and NASA have some desire to move away from the B-52's being used for drop tests, with assorted hypersonic vehicle tests expected (though at a very low rate if recent history is any measure). Though the operational reasons for wanting to move away from B-52's aren't necessarily solved by switching to Roc though. Plus, who ends up being the owner/operator in that scenario, some compartmented LLC owned by VG or The SpaceShip Company or perhaps Northrop Grumman/Skunk Works? Plus, the recent B-52 re-engining push may make switching to another platform even less attractive.

Who else is likely to step up and buy/use Roc then?

[libra]

Shame NASA budget can't afford it, at least over the long term. Imagine that thing with a 250 mt "airborne astronomy pod" with a big IR telescope inside. Unfortunately SOFIA already got the job, and experience with this this project are not encouraging - delays, cost overruns...

[GWH]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

[meekGee]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

Companies are fully alive until the day they shut down.  You keep trying until you're told it's over.  So they made an announcement, maybe started tentative plans - see how much traction they could get.

If there was sufficient take up, maybe it would have helped. Apparently there wasn't.

[russianhalo117]

For all anyone knows, being siblings, they had long discussions about the future of the company, about it's apparent lack of a productive path forward, and about what Paul Allen figured his sister can do with it.  I probably included something like "can you at least get the plane to fly, but afterwards if there's no obvious way forward, put it up to sale and put it out of its misery".

Nobody knows what Paul Allen himself would have done at this point if he was alive, given the state of the company.  (Again - as owner, not as CEO)

Time to see this one off. Not all ideas are good.  At least this one got every chance possible to succeed.

Stratolaunch announced new launch vehicle development programs like Black Ice as well as moving forward on engine tests mere months before Paul Allen's passing. Those aren't the actions of someone with the intent of winding down the company.

It's pretty clear his intent wasn't what has happened since.

NGAS (ex TRW) was the primary dev partner on the Paul's PGA engine family.