Stratolaunch: General Company and Development Updates and Discussions

[Tywin]

Well in the documentary, "Mars: Inside SpaceX", you can see the youngs sons of Elon, be with his father, in the KSC and in the launch of FH...I hope, that introduce the space nut virus, and they lover in the future...

The sons of Bezos are older than the Elon, and maybe they understand all the vision of her father, very well...

[JAFO]

Hometown paper story

Boeing & Aerospace

Business

  After Paul Allen’s death, Stratolaunch cuts sharply back — but giant plane will still fly     
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/after-paul-allens-death-stratolaunch-cuts-sharply-back-but-giant-plane-will-still-fly/

[HMXHMX]

Hometown paper story

Boeing & Aerospace

Business

  After Paul Allen’s death, Stratolaunch cuts sharply back — but giant plane will still fly     
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/after-paul-allens-death-stratolaunch-cuts-sharply-back-but-giant-plane-will-still-fly/

I have a prediction – which is worth what y'all pay for it. 

If the Roc flies successfully, and looks like it have a long-term future, then VG will buy it to be the carrier aircraft for their ultimate aspiration of building a "SpaceShipThree".

[Elmar Moelzer]

Hometown paper story

Boeing & Aerospace

Business

  After Paul Allen’s death, Stratolaunch cuts sharply back — but giant plane will still fly     
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/after-paul-allens-death-stratolaunch-cuts-sharply-back-but-giant-plane-will-still-fly/

I have a prediction – which is worth what y'all pay for it. 

If the Roc flies successfully, and looks like it have a long-term future, then VG will buy it to be the carrier aircraft for their ultimate aspiration of building a "SpaceShipThree".

It would be nice to see that happening but I don't think their current technology (and near future capabilities) would enable them to do an air assisted SSTO with fast turnaround times. Unless they can do that, there is little point to all of this. Maybe if they got the in development engine technology with the plane. I presume that the rocket development team was laid off. They would have to act very quickly to pick them up before they find jobs elsewhere. I just don't see it happening.

[GWH]

I have a prediction – which is worth what y'all pay for it. 

If the Roc flies successfully, and looks like it have a long-term future, then VG will buy it to be the carrier aircraft for their ultimate aspiration of building a "SpaceShipThree".

Yes, I was thinking the same. Black Ice and SpaceShipThree could have a lot of overlap in technologies.

The core competencies of Virgin Orbit and Statolaunche's Roc team should align well also.
One team has focused on launch vehicles and operations, the other has focused on building a much larger platform.
 
I don't think the "3 rockets at once" launch option is particularly appealing, however 3xLauncher One would offer a much more competitive solution price wise than 3xPegasus, while still being well under Roc's max take off weight.

Could Virgin Obit grow beyond Launcher One without abandoning their concept of operations? Doubtful, however with Roc in their fleet a medium lift vehicle could be a very real possibility. Newton 3 is almost identical in thrust to Merlin 1-A, clustered options could be used to build medium lift vehicles.

Stratolaunch's recently acquired expertise in hydrolox could serve well in building a high energy upper stage to serve the emerging small GEO sat market: https://spacenews.com/astranis-lands-anchor-customer-for-its-first-small-geo-satellite/

[Comga]

Hometown paper story

Boeing & Aerospace

Business[/l]

After Paul Allen’s death, Stratolaunch cuts sharply back — but giant plane will still fly     
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/after-paul-allens-death-stratolaunch-cuts-sharply-back-but-giant-plane-will-still-fly/

I have a prediction – which is worth what y'all pay for it. 

If the Roc flies successfully, and looks like it have a long-term future, then VG will buy it to be the carrier aircraft for their ultimate aspiration of building a "SpaceShipThree".

Are you saying Roc WILL HAVE a long term future?
Or are you saying IF it has a long term future, which would be begging the question?

Virgin Orbit has liquid rockets in development.
VO is currently operating Cosmic Girl, an older aircraft to carry an air launched rocket. (Rocket One?)
(Coincidentally, CG is a 747, with old 747 engines, like Roc)
There could be synergy.

There is also Orbital (/ATK, /NG) who is operating a one-of-a-kind aircraft for air launching Pegasus, the only real vehicle portrayed to date hanging from Roc.  (Although it seem HIGHLY unlikely they would ever launch more than one, because that defeats most of the advantages of responsive air launch.)

OTOH With Falcon and Atlas flying at low rates, existing players from Rocketlab to India, and the Air Force adding billions to encourage multiple new entrants to the market, from where will the market come for ANOTHER new entrant?

edit: typos, typos, formatting

[GWH]

On one hand, I'm sad to see what seemed like a real passion project scaled down that quickly. On the other hand, I'm still skeptical of air-launching a two- to four-stage small rocket. If you're going to throw away that much hardware, what does the plane do that couldn't be accomplished by a slight tank stretch and a minimal launch pad? It might well be that the project was carried by Paul Allen but doesn't appear competitive against reusables and simple two-stage rockets off dirt pads.

There concepts to date for launch have left much to be desired. The mobile launch pad should enable simpler downrange recovery however. A gliding booster stage could conceivably traverse downrange, in order to land at an airstrip without placing the launch trajectory over populated areas.
If the carrier aircraft and its considerable cross-range capabilities was used to enable downrange recovery of the booster at a low mass penalty, the concept would be much stronger.

[TrevorMonty]

Any company relying on Stratolauncher for launch would need to build 2nd for backup due to long lead time replacing it in case of an accident.
Virgin are doing this with SS2 now that they are going into commercial operation. In case of LauncherOne a 747 replacement is lot easier, maybe 6-12months to get replacement operational. They could modify a 2nd 747 and lease it back to comercial cargo operator, would give them all the advantages of spare without operational costs of storing. As my instructor was fond of saying, no plane makes money sitting on ground.

[meekGee]

For the sake of not seeing wasted effort, hopefully another air launch based company can merge with them to develop a medium lift launcher or point to point transport.

Disgusting that family members would so quickly kill off a life long dream and years of effort after taking control of Paul's estate.

Unfortunately Jody doesn't share Paul's passion for space.

Stratolauncher is looking more like a modern Spruce Goose.

Here's hoping Bezos and Musk have better succession plans. Both have better companies. Blue just need to start earning money from NS flying passengers and for NG to be complete to stand chance of surviving without large cash injections.
SpaceX may find BFR shelved with them concentrating on profitable F9.

She's only taking it out of its misery.

A sane look at the emerging world of launchers says this has no place among them.  Not for lack of passion or will power, but simply because of technical choices made, and because of the equations of what they have and what they don't have and when they need to have something.

They built a launchpad for a non-existing rocket. A very expensive launch pad. A one-of-a-kind launch pad. But they did not build a rocket.  This is mad by any standard.

If there's someone willing to spend money on it for kicks, sure. But if that Exec team (including Paul Allen) had to answer to anyone, they'd be replaced real quick.

--

For VG to build SS3, they need to build a man-rated orbital-class rocket and vehicle.  They are incredibly far from that (though less far than Stratolaunch was).

But even if they could - how large can their vehicle be?  The whole GLOW for the rocket would be 250 tons.  That's closer to a Falcon 5 than it is to a Falcon 9.  So they can almost-orbit a 3-person capsule?  At what cost per seat?

Which of course begs the question for VG: "SS3 - how exactly?"  But that's for another thread.

[rockets4life97]

Could the large plane be repurposed for any other use? Or is very much likely to end up like the source goose?

[Lars-J]

Could the large plane be repurposed for any other use? Or is very much likely to end up like the source goose?

Sure, oversize transport. But they built a plane that is too large for most airports.

[as58]

Could the large plane be repurposed for any other use? Or is very much likely to end up like the source goose?

Sure, oversize transport. But they built a plane that is too large for most airports.

Yeah, I doubt they would find enough use for it to pay for maintenance and operating costs.

[RyanC]

I wonder if Musk is thinking about buying Stratolauncher for transport of SpaceX BFR components? It would sure simplify a lot of transportation options...

[ncb1397]

I wonder if Musk is thinking about buying Stratolauncher for transport of SpaceX BFR components? It would sure simplify a lot of transportation options...

NASA or the Air Force buying it is more likely. Wouldn't surprise me if the AFRL mounts a laser pod under the thing to test their BMD stuff they listed in their new missile defense review. Or NASA would use it for a next-gen telescope even larger than JWST.

[Nomadd]

For VG to build SS3, they need to build a man-rated orbital-class rocket and vehicle.  They are incredibly far from that (though less far than Stratolaunch was).

But even if they could - how large can their vehicle be?  The whole GLOW for the rocket would be 250 tons.  That's closer to a Falcon 5 than it is to a Falcon 9.  So they can almost-orbit a 3-person capsule?  At what cost per seat?

Which of course begs the question for VG: "SS3 - how exactly?"  But that's for another thread.

A Falcon 5 was the original plan.

[Kryten]

 Operating a unique aircraft with so many new structural elements would be an expensive proposition, the An-225 only still flies because most of the parts are common to the An-124.

[HMXHMX]

I wonder if Musk is thinking about buying Stratolauncher for transport of SpaceX BFR components? It would sure simplify a lot of transportation options...

Won't fit.  The vertical clearance under the wing is about 23 ft. as I recall from when Burt briefed it to me back in 2007.

[meekGee]

For VG to build SS3, they need to build a man-rated orbital-class rocket and vehicle.  They are incredibly far from that (though less far than Stratolaunch was).

But even if they could - how large can their vehicle be?  The whole GLOW for the rocket would be 250 tons.  That's closer to a Falcon 5 than it is to a Falcon 9.  So they can almost-orbit a 3-person capsule?  At what cost per seat?

Which of course begs the question for VG: "SS3 - how exactly?"  But that's for another thread.

A Falcon 5 was the original plan.

Original plan for what?  Stratolaunch? 
You know what? I think that rings a bell.

Was SpaceX fully on board and then walked away? Or was it more speculative than that?

Either way, it is obvious in retrospect: you have to build the rocket first.

What you have are people who are first and foremost airplane people creating space projects that revolve around what they love most (airplanes) and so the first thing you see are carrier planes, hangars, taxi tests, etc - and the rocket thing is "outsourced" - leading to the usual result.

Can't outsource core competency.  or rather, shouldn't.

[HMXHMX]

For VG to build SS3, they need to build a man-rated orbital-class rocket and vehicle.  They are incredibly far from that (though less far than Stratolaunch was).

But even if they could - how large can their vehicle be?  The whole GLOW for the rocket would be 250 tons.  That's closer to a Falcon 5 than it is to a Falcon 9.  So they can almost-orbit a 3-person capsule?  At what cost per seat?

Which of course begs the question for VG: "SS3 - how exactly?"  But that's for another thread.

A Falcon 5 was the original plan.

Original plan for what?  Stratolaunch? 
You know what? I think that rings a bell.

Was SpaceX fully on board and then walked away? Or was it more speculative than that?

Either way, it is obvious in retrospect: you have to build the rocket first.

What you have are people who are first and foremost airplane people creating space projects that revolve around what they love most (airplanes) and so the first thing you see are carrier planes, hangars, taxi tests, etc - and the rocket thing is "outsourced" - leading to the usual result.

Can't outsource core competency.  or rather, shouldn't.

It was an early F9 with heavy mods (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_Air) using four Merlins. (So sayeth Wikipedia, though I recall five...)  From the start they had a problem, which was deployment off the Roc.  One of the SpaceX engineers tasked with fixing the issue contacted me (based on our AirLaunch LLC t/LAD demonstrated technology) but couldn't seemingly get his head around our solution.  I heard no more from them, and then the deal was cancelled in 2012.

Amusing anecdote:  I asked Gwynne, some time after the deal went away, what happened.  She was typically succinct.  "I didn't sign up to build a rocket with wings."

[Sam Ho]

For VG to build SS3, they need to build a man-rated orbital-class rocket and vehicle.  They are incredibly far from that (though less far than Stratolaunch was).

But even if they could - how large can their vehicle be?  The whole GLOW for the rocket would be 250 tons.  That's closer to a Falcon 5 than it is to a Falcon 9.  So they can almost-orbit a 3-person capsule?  At what cost per seat?

Which of course begs the question for VG: "SS3 - how exactly?"  But that's for another thread.

A Falcon 5 was the original plan.

Original plan for what?  Stratolaunch? 
You know what? I think that rings a bell.

Was SpaceX fully on board and then walked away? Or was it more speculative than that?

Either way, it is obvious in retrospect: you have to build the rocket first.

What you have are people who are first and foremost airplane people creating space projects that revolve around what they love most (airplanes) and so the first thing you see are carrier planes, hangars, taxi tests, etc - and the rocket thing is "outsourced" - leading to the usual result.

Can't outsource core competency.  or rather, shouldn't.

It was an early F9 with heavy mods (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_Air) using four Merlins. (So sayeth Wikipedia, though I recall five...)  From the start they had a problem, which was deployment off the Roc.  One of the SpaceX engineers tasked with fixing the issue contacted me (based on our AirLaunch LLC t/LAD demonstrated technology) but couldn't seemingly get his head around our solution.  I heard no more from them, and then the deal was cancelled in 2012.

Amusing anecdote:  I asked Gwynne, some time after the deal went away, what happened.  She was typically succinct.  "I didn't sign up to build a rocket with wings."

We had live coverage of the press conference in this very thread, seven years ago, including mention of a Falcon 4 or 5.  The pictures in the press kit showed 5 engines.

Mike: It's well known I've been critical of some aspects of commercial space, where funding is given ahead of achievements (or close to that - was standard Mr Griffin

Thinks Paul Allen has demostrated the quality of being able to continue through the failures they will have.

--

Booster will be a Falcon 4 or 5.

Not yet at the PDR stage.

It exists in 100s of detailed drawings. Need a building big enough to build it. Have acquired two 747s.

Initial test flights for aircraft 2015. Initial launch 2016.

Not sure of main customer yet. Mike notes comm sats. Thinks they compare to Delta II performance as a gap in the market (what about Antares??). Burt says home made sats?

Initially this will be unmanned cargo, not to the ISS. NASA have strict Visiting Vehicle requirements.