Countdown to 2012 'promised' missions.

[Moe Grills]

   OK! It's exactly one month and counting to the year 2012.

By a remarkable coincidence, several different commercial space project
websites (or wikipedia info) indicate that Blue Origin, Excalibur Almaz,
Virgin Galactic, XCOR Lynx project, etc., all have made claims (or project forecasts) that indicate that important test-flights, or inaugural space flights of their hardware will take place in 2012; that year only 31 days away and counting...30 days...29 days...

 On January 1st? Should I start a 366 day countdown on this thread?

[Jose]

You forgot OSC.

http://www.orbital.com/CargoResupplyServices/files/Oct_Update.pdf

First flight of the Taurus II rocket (First flight of the AJ-26/NK-33 engines!)

First flight of the Cygnus spacecraft.

[Jason1701]

You forgot Interorbital, the mother of all never-ending promises.

I doubt any suborbital companies will fly to 100 km in 2012.

[savuporo]

...By a remarkable coincidence, several different commercial space project
websites (or wikipedia info) indicate that Blue Origin, Excalibur Almaz,
Virgin Galactic, XCOR Lynx project, etc., all have made claims (or project forecasts) that indicate that important test-flights, or inaugural space flights of their hardware will take place in 2012; that year only 31 days away and counting...30 days...29 days...

Nothing much has changed then. They made all similar claims about 2011. And 2010.

[Diagoras]

...By a remarkable coincidence, several different commercial space project
websites (or wikipedia info) indicate that Blue Origin, Excalibur Almaz,
Virgin Galactic, XCOR Lynx project, etc., all have made claims (or project forecasts) that indicate that important test-flights, or inaugural space flights of their hardware will take place in 2012; that year only 31 days away and counting...30 days...29 days...

Nothing much has changed then. They made all similar claims about 2011. And 2010.

XCOR and Blue Origin did? Can you reference those claims?

[savuporo]

XCOR and Blue Origin did? Can you reference those claims?

No, we all know that XCOR has always steered carefully and painfully clear of any pronouncements wrt dates, sticking with "we'll build it when we get there".

However, they have been touting "Going suborbital" on their website since 2002 or so and IIRC have been marketing tickets and wet leases of their yet to exist suborbital vehicles for at least past few years now.

My point is, it was the rule of this "industry" that the first significant milestone was always about 2 years in the future. Over the last five years, this time has maybe shortened to 12 months. So with simple extrapolation, in another ten years, maybe we'll be 3 months away from the first launch.

[manboy]

...By a remarkable coincidence, several different commercial space project
websites (or wikipedia info) indicate that Blue Origin, Excalibur Almaz,
Virgin Galactic, XCOR Lynx project, etc., all have made claims (or project forecasts) that indicate that important test-flights, or inaugural space flights of their hardware will take place in 2012; that year only 31 days away and counting...30 days...29 days...

Nothing much has changed then. They made all similar claims about 2011. And 2010.

XCOR and Blue Origin did? Can you reference those claims?

Here's one for XCOR.

http://www.xcor.com/press-releases/2008/08-03-26_Lynx_suborbital_vehicle.html

[savuporo]

XCOR and Blue Origin did? Can you reference those claims?

Here's one for XCOR.

http://www.xcor.com/press-releases/2008/08-03-26_Lynx_suborbital_vehicle.html

Ouch. "Two years from now"

[go4mars]

My point is, it was the rule of this "industry" that the first significant milestone was always about 2 years in the future. Over the last five years, this time has maybe shortened to 12 months. So with simple extrapolation, in another ten years, maybe we'll be 3 months away from the first launch.

And in another million years, we'll be a fraction of a second away!  That will really be exciting! 

On the lighter side, some stuff has eventually been built, so there is a possibility that one or more of the boasts will come to fruition.  In general, it's better to have goals than to tinker endlessly.  I salute them for working toward something at least.  Cost and schedule overruns certainly aren't unique to aerospace!

[thomson]

There's an excellent website called http://www.archive.org/. You can specify web address there *and* a date. It will show you historic version of s given site. You can dig up amazing amount of information there if you have some time to spare.

Example 1: scaled composites web site, A.D. 1997:
http://web.archive.org/web/19970331053004/http://www.scaled.com/index.html

Example 2: Kistler aerospace, A.D. 1998:
http://web.archive.org/web/19981206120259/http://www.kistleraerospace.com/news/index.html

It's also priceless if you want to find something that has disappeared from a site.

Enjoy.

[Moe Grills]

 We can now add Armadillo Aerospace and their STIG to the mix.

Though I like to look back in time to the "what ifs?", I prefer to look to the future and the reality to come.


24 days until 2012 and counting....

[Moe Grills]

I found this link at another website.

You should get a flowchart that you could zoom in on.
It's worth taking a look at.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wiredscience/2011/11/universal-guide-to-space1.jpg

[Moe Grills]

 Ten days, and counting until 2012....

Any progress to report from any of the other commercial
space ventures?

  SpaceX, UP Aerospace and Boeing don't count.
They are established enterprises with available facilities, funds, qualified staff; and reputable hardware already or soon to be launched as recorded on reputable launch-manifests.

[Robotbeat]

Ten days, and counting until 2012....

Any progress to report from any of the other commercial
space ventures?

  SpaceX, UP Aerospace and Boeing don't count.
They are established enterprises with available facilities, funds, qualified staff; and reputable hardware already or soon to be launched as recorded on reputable launch-manifests.

Yeah, Armadillo launched to just shy of 140,000 feet. The other folk are doing other things. I'd be especially interested in an XCor update.

[SpacexULA]

Yeah, Armadillo launched to just shy of 140,000 feet. The other folk are doing other things. I'd be especially interested in an XCor update.

Agreed XCor, Virgin, Armadillo, Masten, ULA, SpaceX, Orbital, LM, Boeing, Up!, etc etc are all going to be wonderfully fun to watch this year.

It's either going to be a wonderful year, or a nightmare, can't wait!

[david1971]

It's either going to be a wonderful year, or a nightmare, can't wait!

About time to revive this thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23648.0

[Moe Grills]

  Three...Two....One....Zero...2012!... We have liftoff!
366 days and counting.

Let's SEE what these commercial space firms DO, not what they SAY in this year of 2012.

In Missouri, they have a saying: SHOW ME! DON'T TELL ME!
Words are a dime-a-dozen.

[8900]

MSL EDL on Mars
VG first suborbital flight
SpaceX & OSC Commercial resupply flights+ATV+HTV
China first manned docking
Galileo system

[yg1968]

Here is an article on what to expect in 2012 from commercial companies:
http://www.space.com/14106-private-spaceflight-2012-predictions.html