LIVE: Shenzhou 9 (SZ-9), Long March 2F/G (CZ-2F/G) - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Via 9ifly space forum, Shenzhou-9 at Jiuquan.

Apparently these are OLD photographs of Shenzhou 6...... 

[Phillip Clark]

Via 9ifly space forum, Shenzhou-9 at Jiuquan.

Apparently these are OLD photographs of Shenzhou 6...... 

Thank you - excitement over.

[Satori]

Via 9ifly space forum, Shenzhou-9 at Jiuquan.

Apparently these are OLD photographs of Shenzhou 6...... 

Thank you for clarification! bah!

[tonyq]

Some very interesting insight into possible SZ-9 launch dates here:-

http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/China/Shenzhou/Shenzhou09Analysis.php

Essentially identifies two primary launch opportunies ~29th May or ~17th July, with the latter favoured at present due to TG-1 decay rate.

However, with SZ-9 already at Jiuquan, this would imply it being processed there for roughly five weeks longer than the previous three manned related flights?

It will be interesting to see when the Long March turns up at Jiuquan, as this might give us our next clue to their precise plans.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Some very interesting insight into possible SZ-9 launch dates here:-

http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/China/Shenzhou/Shenzhou09Analysis.php

Essentially identifies two primary launch opportunies ~29th May or ~17th July, with the latter favoured at present due to TG-1 decay rate.

However, with SZ-9 already at Jiuquan, this would imply it being processed there for roughly five weeks longer than the previous three manned related flights?

It will be interesting to see when the Long March turns up at Jiuquan, as this might give us our next clue to their precise plans.

This should happen within a week or so: the rocket has passed the readiness review for rocket transferal to JSLC on April 11.

Source

[vill]

Via 9ifly space forum, Shenzhou-9 at Jiuquan.

Apparently these are OLD photographs of Shenzhou 6...... 

I thought same before. Photos from weibo can be interesting, though no one can claim they are not 5 years old...    

No new comments about launch date? Till now it seems august term is still not ruled out officialy.

[tonyq]

All gone very quiet on the SZ-9 front, with no new Chinese media commentary for 2/3 weeks, and particularly, no report of the launcher being delivered to JSLC.

Based on the sequence of events leading up to the previous SZ/TG related launches, it needs to be there very soon, if they are going to make the early June window............

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Some good news: the Long March 2F rocket has been completed, and on today a delivery ceremony will take place at CALT's plant before the rocket heads to JSLC via rail. (source) Last year the rocket for TG-1 was delivered on July 15 and was originally tracking for launch on August 30 (before the SJ-11 launch failure happened)(photos here), so maybe the Chinese are thinking of launching in late June - early July?

[tonyq]

That is good news. For SZ-8, the equivalent dates are 24th September and 31st October; 37 days from arrival at JSLC to launch. Presumably it will leave the plant soon after today's ceremony, so how long does the rail journey take?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

The ceremony itself: http://www.calt.com/xwzx/zyxw/2012050512215011b2d8.html

P.S. The press release confirms that there will be one woman taikongnaut on board!

[Phillip Clark]

I am not cross-checking with Bob Christy's data to ensure that my thoughts are independent of his.   Currently, it looks as if the orbit of Tiangong 1 will reach the 31 circuits repeating orbit altitude around the end of the first week of July or the beginning of the second week.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

I am not cross-checking with Bob Christy's data to ensure that my thoughts are independent of his.   Currently, it looks as if the orbit of Tiangong 1 will reach the 31 circuits repeating orbit altitude around the end of the first week of July or the beginning of the second week.

Bob Christy's detailed analysis (on the previous landing times for Shenzhou missions and the orbit variations of TG-1) points to mid-July as the currently most probable launch window, but an earlier opportunity in late June is also possible.

Link

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Some good news: the Long March 2F rocket has been completed, and on today a delivery ceremony will take place at CALT's plant before the rocket heads to JSLC via rail. (source) Last year the rocket for TG-1 was delivered on July 15 and was originally tracking for launch on August 30 (before the SJ-11 launch failure happened)(photos here), so maybe the Chinese are thinking of launching in late June - early July?

Per Xinhua news, both the processing team and the rocket itself arrived at JSLC yesterday.

[tonyq]

Now that the booster is actually at JSLC, we can ponder some interesting dates:-

TG-1 booster arrived 23rd July for planned launch on 30th August (which was of course delayed due to SJ-11 event) Processing time 38 days

SZ-8 booster arrived 24th September for launch 1st November (local time, and correcting my post above) Processing time 38 days

SZ-9 booster arrived 9th May - possible processing time 38 days - projected launch date 16th June?

I'm not suggesting this is a definitive date; only the Chinese know their plans, but it would seem to fit the previously achieved schedule.
 

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Some good news: the Long March 2F rocket has been completed, and on today a delivery ceremony will take place at CALT's plant before the rocket heads to JSLC via rail. (source) Last year the rocket for TG-1 was delivered on July 15 and was originally tracking for launch on August 30 (before the SJ-11 launch failure happened)(photos here), so maybe the Chinese are thinking of launching in late June - early July?

Per Xinhua news, both the processing team and the rocket itself arrived at JSLC yesterday.

Video:
http://military.cntv.cn/program/jsbd/20120510/116786.shtml

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Warning, take the news below with a large bag of salt!

A forum member claimed that Shenzhou 9 will be launched "around June 28". Can't judge his truthfulness at this moment, but he also claimed that the next Chinese launch will carry a radar satellite. So maybe he's an insider, or he's not. 

Source

[tonyq]

Now that the booster is actually at JSLC, we can ponder some interesting dates:-

TG-1 booster arrived 23rd July for planned launch on 30th August (which was of course delayed due to SJ-11 event) Processing time 38 days

SZ-8 booster arrived 24th September for launch 1st November (local time, and correcting my post above) Processing time 38 days

SZ-9 booster arrived 9th May - possible processing time 38 days - projected launch date 16th June?

I'm not suggesting this is a definitive date; only the Chinese know their plans, but it would seem to fit the previously achieved schedule.
 

In addition to the factors in my previous post, 16th/17th June has also been computed at www.zarya.info as the start of an 8 day launch window, which would allow SZ-9 to rendezvous and dock with TG-1, and then return after 13 days and land, in daylight, in the target landing area.

The previous such window is in late May - now far too soon - and the next one, possible, but improbable, is in mid-July - a fallback option maybe.

The date referred to above, 28th June, does not support the flight plan already publicised, unless the overall mission pattern is to be very different to previous SZ missions, which seems highly unlikely.

[Phillip Clark]

Just had a look at the latest Tiangong 1 orbital data and the lab should be in the 31-circuits repeating orbit at the end of June.

So we might see Shenzhou 9 in the last 7-10 days of June?

[Satori]

A mobilization meeting of the launch team for the SZ-9 mission took place at Jiuquan to prepare for the upcoming launch.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

This source reports that the launch will occur at "around June 20", with the flight duration around 10 days. Crew consists of two male and one female.