My comments in all caps, to an email from a friend about Popovkin statements today:
> Hi, [FROM Constantine Domashnev] >
> A new official update on the Phobos Grunt/Ground status is here:
>
http://roscosmos.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=18258 :: 14.11.2011
>
> A brief summary [mine] of Vladimir Popovkin’s statements:
>
> 1. The probe itself does not have design flows.
STATEMENT OF FAITH, NOT OF FACT. ALL MUCH-BALLYHOOED SOVIET ERA EXPERIMENTS IN 'REMOTE VIEWING' AND OTHER E-S-P WERE FAILURES, BUT PERHAPS POPOVKIN BELIEVES HE CAN PERFORM SUCH MIRACLES WITH HIS OWN MIND. ROSKOSMOS OFFICIALS HAVE A PATTERN OF VOICING THEIR DESIRED CONCLUSIONS TO ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION PANELS BEFORE THEY HAVE EVEN BEGUN DATA COLLECTION AND DELIBERATION – THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT LONG, TOXIC TRADITION.
> However, a significant part of the problem is a narrow communication window
> (7 minutes) due to the probe’ unexpectedly close range / ultra low orbit.
SINCE THIS IS HOW THE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM WAS DESIGNED, HOW CAN STATEMENT 1-B BE PLACED DIRECTLY BELOW THE TOTALLY CONTRADICTORY 1-A?? HOW CAN ONE BELIEVE TWO MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE 'FACTOIDS' SIMULTANEOUSLY?
> 2. Astronomically, the deadline for recovering the probe is early December.
MY INTERPLANETARY NAVIGATION GURUS TELL ME THAT DUE TO THE PRECESSION OF THE PROBE'S PARKING ORBIT, IT HAS ALREADY PASSED OUTSIDE ANY POSSIBLE SUCCESSFUL TRANS-MARS-INSERTION BURN BECAUSE OF EXCESS PLANE CHANGE.
> 3. If not recovered by then, the probe will remain on the current orbit for
> a month or two.
IT WILL, OF COURSE, DROP LOWER AND LOWER IN THAT PERIOD, AND WILL NOT REMAIN AT ANY ALTITUDE.
> 4. Currently, the probe is stable relative to the sun; it functions
> nominally, which means the onboard computing is not dead.
SEE QUIBBLE OVER STATEMENT 1-A. POPOVKIN GAVE NO DATA ON WHICH THIS 'HOPE' IS BASED, NOR IS THERE ANY REPORT OF ANY RUSSIAN SPACE OPTICAL SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM OBTAINING A SINGLE TRACKING ARC ON THE PAYLOAD. FROM WHAT I'VE READ ABOUT NUREK-OKNO AND OTHERS, I AM NOT CONVINCED THEY EVEN HAVE THAT ANGULAR TRACKING RATE CAPABILITY. I HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN ANY VISUAL DAWN/DUSK OPPORTUNITIES LISTED FROM THE KNOWN SITES.
> Hence, theoretical chances however small to establish communication with the probe exist.
SUCH CHANCES NO DOUBT 'EXIST', ON THE SAME ORDER OF LIKELIHOOD
AS THE PROBE BEING HIT BY ORBITAL DEBRIS AND EXPLODING. WE CAN'T
ESTIMATE THOSE CHANCES INDEPENDENTLY [INFO IS SECRET] AND POPOVKIN'S SELF-SERVING SAY-SO ISN'T SUFFICIENT GROUNDS TO BELIEVE IT.
> If communication is established, the exact reasons of what happened will be
> known. And it will be possible to reprogram/reset the BKU.
BUT SINCE IT WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE TO RESET THE PARKING ORBIT PLANE, THIS CAPABILITY LOOKS USELESS REGARDING ANY RESCUE OF THE ORIGINAL INTERPLANETARY MISSION. UNLESS A RUSSIAN BALLISTICIAN CAN EXPLAIN HOW THEY PLAN TO REDESIGN THE ESCAPE ASYMPTOTE -- I'M LISTENING.
> 5. If the probe is to fall to Earth, there is no danger of contamination as
> the probe will explode on reentry.
IF ROSKOSMOS TRULY BELIEVED THIS, THEY WOULD DEORBIT THEIR END-OF-LIFE VEHICLES OVER RUSSIAN TERRITORY. SINCE MOSCOW HAS A LONG, LAMENTABLE TRACK RECORD OF FALSELY CLAIMING THERE WAS NO CONTAMINATION DANGER FROM VEHICLES SUCH AS KOSMOS-954 [CANADA, 1978] AND MARS-96 [BOLIVIA, 1996], STATEMENTS OF THIS NATURE LACK THE SLIGHTEST CREDIBILITY.
> The exact time of reentry can be predicted when the probe' orbit decays to
> 180km [112 MILES].
LIKE THE RUSSIAN SPACE TRACK EXPERTS PREDICTED THE RECENT
UARS AND ROSAT ENTRY TIMES SO ACCURATELY? DOES POPOVKIN
THINK THAT HIS TARGET AUDIENCE HAS AMNESIA, OR IS HE TOO
ACCUSTOMED FROM HIS LONG [AND HONORABLE] MILITARY CAREER
WHERE HE WAS ABLE TO DICTATE DOGMA TO HIS MILITARY UNDERLINGS,
NOT REALIZING THAT IN THE CIVILIAN WORLD, PEOPLE HE CAN'T DISCIPLINE MAY WANT MORE REASONS TO AGREE WITH HIS CLAIMS THAN HIS SAY-SO ALONE?