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#1000
by
Kaputnik
on 12 Dec, 2011 20:06
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A second failure of some sort could explain the apparent separation of thermal blankets or whatever that debris was... maybe?
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#1001
by
JimO
on 12 Dec, 2011 20:19
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"Source" says signals COULD BE received from the return stage. It's mounted on top of the stack and has its own solar panels which are not blocked by any structure. But it hasn't been commanded directly, apparently, yet.
Novosti story posted at 15:39 gmt.
Возвращаемый модуль "Фобос-Грунта" передает сигналы, сообщил источник
19:39 12/12/2011
http://www.ria.ru/science/20111212/515086429.html
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#1002
by
JimO
on 13 Dec, 2011 13:26
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#1003
by
savuporo
on 13 Dec, 2011 15:21
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This starts to look more and more like the dead parrot sketch.
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#1004
by
olasek
on 13 Dec, 2011 17:52
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Nothing new.
Broken record.
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#1005
by
JimO
on 13 Dec, 2011 20:48
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What's new is the current brief full-sun phase.
For ISS/Mir, the periods, near the summer and winter solstices, could last 2-3 days. For FG in its much lower orbit, it's much shorter.
It's caused by that 6-7 degree/day orbital plane precession that we talked about a month ago as closing down the launch window very dsoon after parking orbit insertion -- several days at most. That's been confirmed in the russian papers, subsequently.
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#1006
by
Archibald
on 14 Dec, 2011 09:27
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The morale of this sad story might be: Russia somewhat lacks a Dan Goldin or a Roger Maurice Bonnet.
What does that mean ?
Let's consider two past examples of planetary programs going the wrong way.
ESA, 1980 or so. After the disastrous ESRO / ELDO / Europa experience of the 60's, space science had been somewhat underfunded, in favor of Ariane and Eutelsat commercial endeavours.
Bonnet forged the "Horizon 2000" and "cornerstone missions" concepts, which led to a string of successes for ESA science program - Rosetta, Hershel, Mars Express.
NASA, 1993. Mars Observer was an unmitigated disaster. Dan Goldin might be a controversial person, but the ongoing string of planetary missions success owes much to the Faster Better Cheaper approach.
Goldin mistake was to push FBC too far, but once the crisis was over, the legacy of FBC is still felt today, for good. NASA never had so much planetary missions runiing in parallel, not even in the heydays of the 70's.
IMHO, the russian planetary program needs a Bonnet or a Goldin. Quick.
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#1007
by
olasek
on 14 Dec, 2011 21:01
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The morale of this sad story might be: Russia somewhat lacks a Dan Goldin or a Roger Maurice Bonnet.
I think Russia needs much more than some visionary and able personality. It also needs a sophisticated high-tech industry that can deliver all the goodies, provided it wants to be compared against the best. This is not something that can be created overnight with a stroke of a pen. Russian "Goldin" could perhaps chart a more 'realistic' path for their space program that would deliver more successes tailored to their abilities.
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#1008
by
ChileVerde
on 15 Dec, 2011 12:50
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Over the past few days, the rate at which the semimajor axis (equivalently, the "mean altitude") of Fobos-Grunt has been decaying has decreased a bit. This is slightly odd, as the rate should be steadily increasing as the spacecraft descends into denser atmosphere. The final reentry date as predicted by SatEvo appears to reflect this decrease, as the date has now moved out to January 12.
I have no idea whether this decrease is due to something the spacecraft itself is doing or, perhaps, to some change in atmospheric conditions at 200 km -- people who know about such things might want to comment.
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#1009
by
Comga
on 15 Dec, 2011 14:52
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Over the past few days, the rate at which the semimajor axis (equivalently, the "mean altitude") of Fobos-Grunt has been decaying has decreased a bit. This is slightly odd, as the rate should be steadily increasing as the spacecraft descends into denser atmosphere. The final reentry date as predicted by SatEvo appears to reflect this decrease, as the date has now moved out to January 12.
I have no idea whether this decrease is due to something the spacecraft itself is doing or, perhaps, to some change in atmospheric conditions at 200 km -- people who know about such things might want to comment.
If you looks at the
mean altitude graph on Heavens-above the change is imperceptable. I am also no expert, but it looks to be within the bounds of normal variations in exoatmospheric density.
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#1010
by
alk3997
on 15 Dec, 2011 14:57
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The morale of this sad story might be: Russia somewhat lacks a Dan Goldin or a Roger Maurice Bonnet.
I think Russia needs much more than some visionary and able personality. It also needs a sophisticated high-tech industry that can deliver all the goodies, provided it wants to be compared against the best. This is not something that can be created overnight with a stroke of a pen. Russian "Goldin" could perhaps chart a more 'realistic' path for their space program that would deliver more successes tailored to their abilities.
Seriously? Dan Goldin?? No, nobody needs him running their space program (or university). The brain drain that resulted from his policies as NASA administrator was still being felt a decade later.
Ok, I feel better now...
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#1011
by
docmordrid
on 15 Dec, 2011 16:47
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We could always send them Mike Griffin
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#1012
by
olasek
on 15 Dec, 2011 21:57
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We could always send them Mike Griffin
I always liked the guy, not sure he would be looking forward to such assignment though
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#1013
by
bolun
on 17 Dec, 2011 19:44
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#1014
by
ChileVerde
on 18 Dec, 2011 13:46
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16221975
Current Roscosmos estimates for the timing of the fall are between 6 and 19 January, but this window will be narrowed nearer the event.
The SatEvo predictions have been moving rightward at a day per day recently and now are at 15 January. The semimajor axis decay rate is holding at about 1.3 km/day.
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#1015
by
Michael J
on 19 Dec, 2011 11:35
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#1016
by
Ben the Space Brit
on 19 Dec, 2011 11:51
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#1017
by
baldusi
on 19 Dec, 2011 12:26
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#1018
by
rdale
on 19 Dec, 2011 12:30
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No need to worry about it either. There is no way of knowing, and odds are extremely high that even if so it will fall harmlessly away, so don't stress...
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#1019
by
kevin-rf
on 19 Dec, 2011 13:56
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No need to worry about it either. There is no way of knowing, and odds are extremely high that even if so it will fall harmlessly away, so don't stress...
Of course ~2/3 of the earths surface is ocean, but we had two large water re-entrys in the last few months. So when you start taking odds, we are overdue for one coming down on land...
