Author Topic: Do you think Rocketplane Kistler is still worth anything? (Read 10175 times)

Adaptation · « **on:** 11/06/2011 04:13 pm »

Everything that's left of RPK is up for auction in one lump sum this week. They will let you see what they have if you sign the confidentiality agreement (which I have not signed yet). I was wondering if you know if they ever got into the hardware development stages. It may be worth buying them to get a few rocket engines out of the deal. If a some of us want to pool our resources and place a bid I'd probably be willing to throw 8k into the pot.

http://www.hgpauction.com/?auctionid=82

Hauerg · « **Reply #1 on:** 11/06/2011 04:24 pm »

IIRC they hade quite a lot of hardwar built, I remember photos of something like 3/4 of a first stage...
But I have no idea haw far they were assembling that into a useful flight article.
Also I was concerned that with their reusable approach a single failure of a single stage might have left them without anything to try again within a reasonable time.....
So don't count me in.

Patchouli · « **Reply #2 on:** 11/06/2011 07:25 pm »

I suspect Jeff Bezos or John Carmack will end up being the highest bidder in this auction.

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #3 on:** 11/06/2011 08:26 pm »

First the auction site does say asset contents subject to change at each site.

So will they let the bidders know just before the bid starts as what is at each site?

How much time after the bid does the winner have to pick up there winning? Were will the winner store the winnings?

Is there any added payment needed to the place were the items are stored?

What does the winner plan on doing with the hardware and patents? If they were to launch it were and how much more investment would be needed?

If there are documents on testing and manufacturing they might be worth something!

The stages land a lot like a capsule would on land. So how much are the patents worth then?

The active dispenser the way it was configured might be worth something if they had some testing on it!

There were to be two first stages ( LAP, launch assist platforms ) and three upper stages, plus the removable top canisters.

I do not see it being worth buying. To much liability ( cost after the bid ), plus the questions can any of the hardware be used and is any of the data ( info ) in the documents any good.

I see it worth just starting up a company and buying off the shelf as much as possible to make a two stage RLV. So how long are the patents good for?

Archibald · « **Reply #4 on:** 11/07/2011 07:13 am »

I would say that the hardware and overall concept are "sane" - but if someone was to start Kistler again from zero, then that person would need to careful define his business model. Kistler (Rocketplane) essentially failed on those grounds.

simonbp · « **Reply #5 on:** 11/07/2011 03:35 pm »

Well, your business case will tend to fail if can't prove to your investors that what you're doing is even possible, let alone profitable. Plus, the original Kistler plan was based around the same fanciful late-90s "satellite boom" that cased Boeing to build the massively overbig Delta VI plant in Decatur, meaning the economics of it were totally scaled around high-demand, high-flight rate operations. By the time they got the COTS money, the commercial market had already fled overseas and there was no way for them to get over the high initial capital they needed.

SpaceX's F9R and Blue Origin's RBS both sound like functional successors to K-1, in that they are fully reusable TSTO vertical-launch rockets. But, both companies are taking a much more careful, phased approach, meaning they are not dependent on the fully-reusable vehicle, it's just a nice bonus.

IMHO, the best way for Kistler Aerospace to survive (not RpK, that was doomed from the start) would be to decide in 2000-ish to focus everything on the development of the first stage, and just buy an upper stage (e.g. a Castor 30 like Taurus II). That would have allowed them to prove out their systems for only half of the development time/money and still given them a really competitive launcher. But I doubt they would have done that...

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #6 on:** 11/07/2011 07:22 pm »

Business case should be pricing the launcher on ten uses not 100 before replacement ( amortized ). Allows for upgrades on next model without having to what a long time before the first model is used up ( like the shuttle has 100 uses and at 10 flight per year would take ten years, over that time period the old part can be out of date ). Can build up to 100+ uses before replacement. Plus you can't count on there not being a mishap before the 100 uses.

USAF has plans for a first stage to be reusable
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2010/04/19/AW_04_19_2010_p30-219818.xml&headline=USAF Plans For Reusable Booster Development&channel=defense

The first stage as it has it own avionics , it is a LAP ( launch assist platform ). Second stage can be many types as it is cargo untill stage separation with it's own avionics.

Bottom line, is Kistler still woth anything.
Only if there is something in the auction that can be used for the right price that can not be bought from a supplier. That is total cost not just bid cost.

Edit:
If there are bidders then I expect the bid to go into the millions.

Jim · « **Reply #7 on:** 11/07/2011 07:43 pm »

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 11/07/2011 07:22 pm

1. Business case should be pricing the launcher on ten uses not 100

Bottom line, is Kistler still woth anything.
Only if there is something in the auction that can be used for the right price that can not be bought from a supplier. That is total cost not just bid cost.

1. Huh? You will never get a business case that closes at only 10 launches.

2. Kistler hardware is being sold as salvage and not flight hardware. Nobody is going to build a vehicle out of it.
They will be bidders and they will look at it as scrap metal

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #8 on:** 11/07/2011 08:05 pm »

Quote from: Jim on 11/07/2011 07:43 pm

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 11/07/2011 07:22 pm
1. Business case should be pricing the launcher on ten uses not 100

Bottom line, is Kistler still woth anything.
Only if there is something in the auction that can be used for the right price that can not be bought from a supplier. That is total cost not just bid cost.

1. Huh? You will never get a business case that closes at only 10 launches.

2. Kistler hardware is being sold as salvage and not flight hardware. Nobody is going to build a vehicle out of it.
They will be bidders and they will look at it as scrap metal

Your first point
If a reusable stage cost less to build and then refurbish after 10 flights than to build 10 expendable units with a reasonable margin it will.
( I should have been more clear, build 3 or 4 flight units like they did with shuttle. Then upgrades could be added in as needed, such as when parts are out dated. )

Your second point
Well there better be a lot of metal for scrap then. There is a lot of risk for just scrap metal.

Jim · « **Reply #9 on:** 11/07/2011 11:12 pm »

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 11/07/2011 08:05 pm

Well there better be a lot of metal for scrap then. There is a lot of risk for just scrap metal.

What Risk?

joek · « **Reply #10 on:** 11/08/2011 12:03 am »

The auction covers "tangible and intangible" assets, which includes patents, and presumably some other IP, so there's more than scrap metal on the table. That said, I've no idea if RPK's IP is of substantive value.

The intangibles typically involve greater risk (more difficult and uncertainty assessing value). However, as this is a winner-take-all, the participants can't pick-and-choose. If this follows typical form, there will be two broad classes of bidders: those interested in the tangibles; and those interested in the intangibles.

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #11 on:** 11/08/2011 02:33 am »

Quote from: Jim on 11/07/2011 11:12 pm

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 11/07/2011 08:05 pm

Well there better be a lot of metal for scrap then. There is a lot of risk for just scrap metal.

What Risk?

Take a look at their terms and conditions page
http://www.hgpauction.com/index.php/terms-and-conditions

Have you seen Storage Wars TV show or the car auction show? This type of auction is a lot more complicated. There are legal issues with documents that might be gotten ( signing of non disclosure forms might be needed ). You may need a licence to have some of the items. They show a high premium over the won bid price. There are a lot more thing of risk, things that need to be known before signing up to bid. This type of auction is for the professional, not the casual amateur bidder.

As a general rule on bidding you estimate your gains ( or savings if buying new ) to be at least 4 times your total cost. Bid + premium + travel cost + moving and processing items + selling or investment needed to use item(s). This does not apply to classic cars.

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #12 on:** 11/11/2011 06:02 pm »

Update on Kistler auction at
http://www.hgpauction.com/

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #13 on:** 11/19/2011 01:20 am »

Auction now on Dec. 16, 2011

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #14 on:** 12/16/2011 04:47 pm »

In progress
Auction going on now

Does anyone have a live link to the auction?

the auctions home web page
http://www.hgpauction.com/

Edit:
I put in an email to the auction site to try and get some information.

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #15 on:** 12/16/2011 07:15 pm »

From the auction web site http://www.hgpauction.com/ it looks like the auction is over.

I do not see any information about the auction on there web site.

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #16 on:** 12/21/2011 12:36 am »

http://www.hgpauction.com/

Shows that the auction has closed.

The winner has to pay at least a 25% deposit of the winning bid within 24 hours of the conclusion of the auction from Heritage Global Partners web site.

So far there has been nothing on the web as to who was at the auction.
Nor has anyone come forward to say they had the winning bid.

That is very interesting for a global webcast auction no one has come forward as to whom is the winning bidder!

Makes one think as something as big as a Rocket company assets that were auctioned off as Rocketplane Kistler was well known.

Jim · « **Reply #17 on:** 12/21/2011 02:27 am »

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 12/21/2011 12:36 am

http://www.hgpauction.com/

Shows that the auction has closed.

The winner has to pay at least a 25% deposit of the winning bid within 24 hours of the conclusion of the auction from Heritage Global Partners web site.

So far there has been nothing on the web as to who was at the auction.
Nor has anyone come forward to say they had the winning bid.

That is very interesting for a global webcast auction no one has come forward as to whom is the winning bidder!

Makes one think as something as big as a Rocket company assets that were auctioned off as Rocketplane Kistler was well known.

not if it is going for scrap metal

RocketmanUS · « **Reply #18 on:** 12/22/2011 01:20 am »

Quote from: Jim on 12/21/2011 02:27 am

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 12/21/2011 12:36 am
http://www.hgpauction.com/

Shows that the auction has closed.

The winner has to pay at least a 25% deposit of the winning bid within 24 hours of the conclusion of the auction from Heritage Global Partners web site.

So far there has been nothing on the web as to who was at the auction.
Nor has anyone come forward to say they had the winning bid.

That is very interesting for a global webcast auction no one has come forward as to whom is the winning bidder!

Makes one think as something as big as a Rocket company assets that were auctioned off as Rocketplane Kistler was well known.

not if it is going for scrap metal

If the winners plan is just to sell it off in pieces then their potential customers will need to know who they are in order to buy the piece they want. So why keep it a secret of who they are if all they are going to do is part it out?

Jim · « **Reply #19 on:** 12/22/2011 02:46 am »

Quote from: RocketmanUS on 12/22/2011 01:20 am

If the winners plan is just to sell it off in pieces then their potential customers will need to know who they are in order to buy the piece they want. So why keep it a secret of who they are if all they are going to do is part it out?

Huh? The winner could be the scrap company itself. And no, when it comes to scrap, there isn't much formality. Just show up at the scrap yard.