Poll

Which launcher family/organization/country do you think will launch the heaviest portion of the first post-Apollo BEO HSF mission?

SLS
ULA (Delta, Atlas, or derivative)
SpaceX (Falcon or derivative)
Russia
China
Other US launcher family
Other non-US launcher family

Author Topic: POLL: Launcher families and the first post-Apollo BEO HSF mission  (Read 10698 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

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Offline Joris

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Isn't there this Space-adventures mission planned, the one using a Soyuz carrying two tourists?
JIMO would have been the first proper spaceship.

Offline Namechange User

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Yippie!  A "requested poll"!

I cannot vote because I do not see the true and obvious answer and that is we already have a beyond LEO HSF program!  It has fighters and starships involving reverse engineered alien technology from a race that long ago enslaved the human population forcing us to build the pyramids until we ran them out.  It is there where we also recovered the stargate that is currently being run out of Cheyenne Mountain.

It's true and I know this because I saw it on TV, which I hear is almost just as credible as the internet.  :)
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline majormajor42

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Isn't there this Space-adventures mission planned, the one using a Soyuz carrying two tourists?

Your choice would be "Russia" then, if you think they will do BEO HSF first that is.
« Last Edit: 10/27/2011 09:05 pm by majormajor42 »
...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Offline SF Doug

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China - Apollo 8 style

• They can afford it
• They don't need permission
From NASA or Congress
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Offline PahTo

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Reminder the moon is in Earth orbit, so Apollo was BLEO, but not BEO.

Having said that, and considering NEO, I'll go with SLS.

Offline Patchouli

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A close race between Spacex and Space adventures doing an Apollo 8 or Zond style free return lunar flyby.
 Spacex likely will have a rocket capable of pulling off an Apollo 8 mission in a single launch before anyone else.

Space adventures already has access to much of the hardware needed but this requires the purchase of both a Soyuz and a Proton along with a customized mission module which makes it more costly and maybe less likely which is why I voted Spacex.

All Spacesx would need is one Falcon heavy and a Dragon with the number of seats cut back to 3 and outfitted with the necessary hardware for the 8 day mission.

« Last Edit: 10/27/2011 10:47 pm by Patchouli »

Offline jongoff

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I said SpaceX, but I think ULA is a close second.  That's the problem with polls like this, it's hard to say when you're only marginally in favor of one item.

But yeah, in spite of SpaceX's delays and overpromising, and even the non-zero chance of them just completely failing and going out of business, I still think they're the most likely entity to launch the bulk (propellant) for the next BEO HSF mission.

Offline Lars_J

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I voted SpaceX, because they could in a few years have all the equipment in-house for pulling off a Zond style mission. (FH, Crew Dragon)
« Last Edit: 10/27/2011 11:39 pm by Lars_J »

Offline jedsmd

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Voted SLS because congress pays so congress gets to pick the system, sure don't like the timeline though :(

Offline neilh

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Thanks for putting up the poll! I'm really interested in seeing the results.
Someone is wrong on the Internet.
http://xkcd.com/386/

Offline savuporo

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I said SpaceX, but I think ULA is a close second.  That's the problem with polls like this, it's hard to say when you're only marginally in favor of one item.
General problem with voting systems you know. Look into range voting, or IRV.

Sorry for OT.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline Khadgars

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Just my opinion but I don't see how China would be in a position to do even a Apollo 8 style mission before the end of the decade.  I give them credit for what they're doing but they're moving at their own, slug pace.

And SpaceX would really be pushing the envelope to have FalconHeavy by 2015 and would likely need couple years at the minimum of real inflight testing before anyone took it to the moon.

By bet is SLS-2 in 2018 as the first BEO since Apollo.
Evil triumphs when good men do nothing - Thomas Jefferson

Offline Seattle Dave

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SLS of course. That'll be the first proper HLV.

Offline Downix

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I put ULA as they are already preparing the first MPCV launch.  A two launch setup would be enough to begin some basic BLEO operations.
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Offline AS-503

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With regard to SLS actually flying, or for that matter manned BEO by 2018, I can hear Ricardo Montalbán saying, “Welcome to Fantasy Island.”

Offline Rabidpanda

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Based on what happened with Constellation I don't have high hopes for SLS... but I would love to be proven wrong.

I think Spacex is the most likely because I get the impression that Elon isn't in it for the money and he is happy to go to space just for the heck of it.  A manned lunar flyby shouldn't be too hard if they can actually pull off Falcon Heavy.

Of course if NASA decided to use existing rockets instead of SLS we could probably do a lunar flyby mission as soon as Orion is ready.

Offline Proponent

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I said SpaceX, but I think ULA is a close second.  That's the problem with polls like this, it's hard to say when you're only marginally in favor of one item.

My thoughts and vote exactly.

Suggestion to the mods:  allow for polls in which participants rank the options rather than selecting one (like the AV system proposed in the UK recently).  You can then have run-offs without creating multiple poll threads.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Russia - Commercial trans-lunar free-return tourist flight.
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Offline Chris Bergin

Based on what happened with Constellation I don't have high hopes for SLS... but I would love to be proven wrong.


I always find that the main valid concern from the community. They need to do some serious avoiding of PMR level slips etc - which is where it all went wrong with CxP (as much as you can do deeper with the design changes).

So far they are avoiding that, to be totally fair.
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