Author Topic: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)  (Read 829106 times)

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1400 on: 01/22/2019 07:16 am »
It seems to me that if the launch of the Nauka module for the ISS keeps moving into the far distance and the imminent halting of the (lucrative) taxi rides for the western countries, there seems to be little point in a Russian manned programme.

Remember that for more than half of the time that ISS has been permanently occupied the only route for a crew to get there has been via a Soyuz.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1401 on: 01/22/2019 07:50 am »
It seems to me that if the launch of the Nauka module for the ISS keeps moving into the far distance and the imminent halting of the (lucrative) taxi rides for the western countries, there seems to be little point in a Russian manned programme.

I think that Nauka launch is not that far away. It is likely to go during 2020.

Western observers are often (always) overestimating the impact of NASA seats-buying on Roscosmos budget. In reality, it is almost nothing.
Nicolas PILLET
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Online daedalus1

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1402 on: 01/22/2019 08:00 am »
Phil Clark - I haven't forgotten. I'm talking about the future.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1403 on: 01/22/2019 04:46 pm »
...

Western observers are often (always) overestimating the impact of NASA seats-buying on Roscosmos budget. In reality, it is almost nothing.

IIRC, price per seat on Soyuz for NASA in 2018 was about $82 M; per year it gives 82*6 = $492 M.
And again - IIRC - for year 2018 Russian federal funding for space industry was about $1.5 B.
So it's more like quarter than "almost nothing" - of course, if I did not mess up the numbers :)

The real trouble is that ALL non-federal sources of money are gone or about to close for Roscosmos:
*** NASA seats-buying has already stopped (if I understand correctly the deal with Boeing for Sea Launch debt);
*** the money from commercial launches by ILS, Eurockot, Sea Launch, Kosmotras - they are all gone;
*** ULA will stop buying RD-180 soon (2020 or 2021);
*** Arianespace will stop buying Soyuz-ST at the same time frame.
Each one of above is not much, but all together they add up into a big trouble.

This is why I won't be surprised if MLM Nauka will not fly in 2020.

EDIT - corrected typos.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2019 04:50 pm by smoliarm »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1404 on: 01/22/2019 08:13 pm »
But what you forget is that NASA is not "buying seats" on Soyuz. NASA is actually FUNDING two Soyuz missions per year. This is compensation for the fact that 100% of crew transfer relies on Russia (US is not doing their part of the job).

So, next year, NASA will stop giving money, but Roscosmos will no longer have to build two of the four annual rockets and spaceships.
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Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1405 on: 01/23/2019 08:08 am »
https://ria.ru/20190123/1549747583.html
Google translation
Quote
The launch of the unmanned Soyuz was supposed on September 12, but according to a new plan it is scheduled for August 22. And now the ship will spend 12 days on the ISS, not 32,” the agency’s source said.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1406 on: 01/24/2019 10:58 pm »
But what you forget is that NASA is not "buying seats" on Soyuz. NASA is actually FUNDING two Soyuz missions per year. ...
- well, there is an old saying in Russian, loosely translated:
**It does not matter how you call the 'money'**

...
So, next year, NASA will stop giving money, but Roscosmos will no longer have to build two of the four annual rockets and spaceships.
- well, correspondingly, Roscosmos will have to fire some part of its workforce...
And it is an illustration to the above quoted proverb :(

One more detail: as I understand the situation - NASA already has stopped paying Roscosmos. NASA pays to Boeing, who gets this seats from Roscosmos for free, as a compensation for Sea Launch debt.
And one can make a wild guess that both recent mishaps (hole in Soyuz MS-09 and launch abort of MS-10) are the consequences...

Well, I'm pretty sure that further discussion of these matters is OT here.
I just wanted to explain WHY I believe that Russian space industry is in deep trouble (which is IMHO much worse than 'overestimates' by western observers).
This is why I'm afraid more than half of Russian launches currently scheduled for 2019 will not fly this year.
« Last Edit: 01/24/2019 11:05 pm by smoliarm »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1407 on: 01/25/2019 08:34 pm »
Cross-post:
Re: Anik G2V--it does not exist.

Ron Sanchez, ILS communications, replied to my inquiry yesterday by e-mail.  There is no Anik G2V.

Also, he verbally confirmed that Yamal-601 is a Khrunichev launch (federal/government), not ILS.

I've modified my Proton mini-schedule up-thread as per the above information.

EDIT 1/29
« Last Edit: 01/29/2019 09:31 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Liss

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1408 on: 01/25/2019 08:52 pm »
IIRC, price per seat on Soyuz for NASA in 2018 was about $82 M; per year it gives 82*6 = $492 M.
And again - IIRC - for year 2018 Russian federal funding for space industry was about $1.5 B.
So it's more like quarter than "almost nothing" - of course, if I did not mess up the numbers :)
The appropriated 2018 funding for civilian space activities was 181.76 billion roubles = $2.75 billion.
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1409 on: 01/28/2019 04:27 pm »
https://ria.ru/20190128/1549922046.html
Google translate:
Quote
Two such projects are currently under development at IKI. The first is Chibis-AI (atmosphere-ionosphere). He will receive more advanced equipment for the study of thunderstorm processes. The second is the "Trabant." Translated from German, this word means "companion", "satellite", the name was coined in honor of the first satellite. The device will be highly sensitive equipment to investigate electromagnetic variations in the ionosphere. Both satellites can be launched after 2020.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1410 on: 01/29/2019 10:40 am »
IIRC, price per seat on Soyuz for NASA in 2018 was about $82 M; per year it gives 82*6 = $492 M.
And again - IIRC - for year 2018 Russian federal funding for space industry was about $1.5 B.
So it's more like quarter than "almost nothing" - of course, if I did not mess up the numbers :)
The appropriated 2018 funding for civilian space activities was 181.76 billion roubles = $2.75 billion.

wiki-ru gives 128 billion rubles as Roskosmos budget-2018 with reference to
"Федеральный закон «О федеральном бюджете на 2018 год и на плановый период 2019 и 2020 годов» от 05.12.2017 N 362-ФЗ"

On the other hand, fcp.economy.gov.ru gives picture (attached) with even smaller number (less than 100 billion rubles) for 2018...

I don't know what's the reason for such discrepancies, may be it's the way draw a line between "civilian space activities" and others, may be something else. And actually I don't care: by any arithmetic $500 M is a substantial loss in Roscosmos scale.

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1411 on: 01/30/2019 04:42 am »
Soyuz MS-12 (58S) launch - March 14 - 19:14 UTC:
https://ria.ru/20190130/1550105438.html

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1412 on: 01/30/2019 04:45 am »
https://ria.ru/20190130/1550107856.html
Google translate:
Quote
The Russian-German Space Observatory  Spectrum-RG (X-ray) will be launched into space on June 21, a source at the Baikonur cosmodrome told RIA Novosti.

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1413 on: 01/31/2019 02:08 pm »
EgyptSat-A - February 21
Soyuz MS-12 - March 14
Progress MS-11 - April 4
Soyuz MS-13 - July 6
Progress MS-12 - July 31
Soyuz MS-14 (manned) - September 25
Progress MS-13 - December 20
https://tass.ru/kosmos/6063144
« Last Edit: 01/31/2019 02:15 pm by Salo »

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1414 on: 01/31/2019 02:15 pm »
« Last Edit: 01/31/2019 02:17 pm by Salo »

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1415 on: 01/31/2019 02:18 pm »
https://ria.ru/20190131/1550191149.html
Google translate:
Quote
MOSCOW, January 31 - RIA News. The launch of the Soyuz MS-14 unmanned spacecraft is scheduled for August 2019, the Russian Designer General Academician Yevgeny Mikrin told RIA Novosti.

Offline Olaf

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1416 on: 02/02/2019 12:43 pm »
From an interview with the Director General of NPO Lavochkin:

https://www.laspace.ru/press/news/person/20190131_interview/

Google translate:

Quote
01/31/2019
Interview of Vladimir Afanasyevich Kolmykov, Director General of NPO Lavochkin, for the corporate newspaper Novator on the results of the enterprise’s activities for 2018, product quality, production modernization, personnel policy and priorities for 2019.

...

- What tasks do you consider priorities for the current year?

- Of course, the most important priority is to ensure the launches of our spacecraft. This year we are to launch the orbital astrophysical observatory "Spectr-RG", the hydrometeorological satellite "Electro-L" No. 3.

In addition, in 2019, according to our plan, we have to provide 17 launches of spacecraft with our Fregat accelerating units from four spaceports located in different geographical areas. This is a huge responsibility to our customers.

We have to perform a large amount of work on the manufacture of the Luna-Glob landing gear, the Arktika-M hydrometeorological satellite, as well as the landing module and the landing platform of the ExoMars 2020 mission with the subsequent shipment of the material part to Europe for further work.

...

Three Fregats are planned from Kourou, so there will be 14 Fregats from Russian cosmodroms.

Offline Salo

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1417 on: 02/05/2019 05:08 am »
http://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=500789
Google translation
Quote
According to the published schedule of planned launches, in 2020 Progress stations should be sent to the station in February, June, September and December.

Offline Salo

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Offline owais.usmani

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Re: Plan of Russian space launches (part 2)
« Reply #1419 on: 02/08/2019 11:09 am »
"Two decades behind schedule"? Was the MLM Nauka really targeted initially for launch in year 2000?

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