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#20
by
tonyq
on 01 Oct, 2011 09:36
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May I point out to this picture? IT clearly states that SZ-9 will be manned contingent to the results of SZ-8.
Yes, I don't think anyone is arguing that point!
It seems pretty clear that they are just hedging their bets. The Chinese have shown themselves to be very cautious and careful, and not wishing to over-promise. But if the recently annouced programme for SZ-8 goes off without a hitch, then SZ-9 will be manned. It's just not their style to say that unconditionally, until SZ-8 is in the bag.
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#21
by
Spiff
on 05 Oct, 2011 15:32
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I think I have to agree with most things tonyq and Liss bring up. Making SZ-9 a 2 men flight and SZ-10 a 2 men + 1 woman flight. All provided SZ-8 doesn't encounter serious problems.
If SZ-8 doesn't achieve its objectives, they could decide to shift the manned TG-1 missions to the right and launch SZ-9 unmanned with SZ-10 and 11 manned. As tony points out, there is enough time. Or they could add the SZ-9 objectives to SZ-10 and only fly 1 manned mission to TG-1. In any case, I think the Chinese have a very specific set of objectives to achieve using TG-1 before continuing to TG-2.
One thing about mission time. What do we know about the resources already on board TG-1? Are there any food/water/air supplies available? If so, how many man-days seems plausible?
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#22
by
Phillip Clark
on 05 Oct, 2011 16:25
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I think I have to agree with most things tonyq and Liss bring up. Making SZ-9 a 2 men flight and SZ-10 a 2 men + 1 woman flight. All provided SZ-8 doesn't encounter serious problems.
If SZ-8 doesn't achieve its objectives, they could decide to shift the manned TG-1 missions to the right and launch SZ-9 unmanned with SZ-10 and 11 manned. As tony points out, there is enough time. Or they could add the SZ-9 objectives to SZ-10 and only fly 1 manned mission to TG-1. In any case, I think the Chinese have a very specific set of objectives to achieve using TG-1 before continuing to TG-2.
One thing about mission time. What do we know about the resources already on board TG-1? Are there any food/water/air supplies available? If so, how many man-days seems plausible?
It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
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#23
by
aquanaut99
on 05 Oct, 2011 16:39
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It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
That's not the current plan. AIUI, SZ-10 will be the last flight to TG-1. After that, TG-2 should be launched and Shenzhou 11 to 14 will fly to Tiangong-2, which will be more like a space lab where some actual research work will take place (TG-1 is mostly just a test object for docking procedures).
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#24
by
baldusi
on 05 Oct, 2011 16:55
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It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
That's not the current plan. AIUI, SZ-10 will be the last flight to TG-1. After that, TG-2 should be launched and Shenzhou 11 to 14 will fly to Tiangong-2, which will be more like a space lab where some actual research work will take place (TG-1 is mostly just a test object for docking procedures).
From what I red Tiangong-2 was to test earth observation and new technologies (the robotic arm was specifically named), and Tiangong-3 was to test the regenerative ECLSS. Visited Shenzhou 11-14 in 2013-2015, according to plan.
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#25
by
Phillip Clark
on 05 Oct, 2011 17:05
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It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
That's not the current plan. AIUI, SZ-10 will be the last flight to TG-1. After that, TG-2 should be launched and Shenzhou 11 to 14 will fly to Tiangong-2, which will be more like a space lab where some actual research work will take place (TG-1 is mostly just a test object for docking procedures).
I was just being cautious! I have never seen the Chinese even hint that Shenzhou 11 would be available for a mission to Tiangong 1 and so I have always believed that it would be the first visit to Tiangong 2.
The Chinese do not have a long production line of Shenzhou spacecraft: although now apparently of a standard design, they are manufactured to order for specific missions, without any being available as "spares" or back-ups.
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#26
by
tonyq
on 30 Oct, 2011 16:53
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This link which Rui kindly added to the main SZ-8 thread contains an interesting quote from Yang Lewei about future crewing:-
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sci/2011-10/30/c_131220639.htm"However, for the first batch of 14 Chinese astronauts, whose average age is 47, some of them might not have the chance to fly into space due to the limited number of manned space flights, though all of them are capable of the missions, the 46-year-old astronaut said."
This is probably the clearest hint yet that some to the first Chinese group will never fly.
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#27
by
Phillip Clark
on 30 Oct, 2011 17:20
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I winder whether the Chinese were expecting a higher launch rate when the first group of candidates was selected?
If this is correct, was the programme's slow down for fnancial or technical reasons?
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#28
by
tonyq
on 30 Oct, 2011 18:16
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I winder whether the Chinese were expecting a higher launch rate when the first group of candidates was selected?
If this is correct, was the programme's slow down for fnancial or technical reasons?
With hindsight, it certainly looks that way. Back in 1998, if they'd known that by 2011, only six men would have flown, they surely wouldn't have selected so many............
The fact that they only selected 5 men in the second group (the 2 women are a special selection) suggests they may be trying to balance supply and demand better balanced for the next 5-10 years.
I wonder if, once they have completed the SZ-8 to 10 flights and proven docking capability, they will begin to select the non-pilots Yang mentions?
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#29
by
Liss
on 30 Oct, 2011 21:47
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One thing about mission time. What do we know about the resources already on board TG-1? Are there any food/water/air supplies available? If so, how many man-days seems plausible?
I have read of 20 days' resource of piloted flight of TG-1. Don't know if this relates to three-person crew.
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#30
by
tonyq
on 31 Oct, 2011 08:48
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Lots of re-cycled news stories about today, in anticipation of the SZ-8 launch, but this one says, for the first time, that a training group of nine taikonauts has been selected to prepare for the two docking missions in 2012.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-10/31/c_131222216.htmThe group is 7 men from the first group, and the 2 women from the second group. This seems to be broadly in line with what we had suggested above, although there is no indication if the men include any of the veterans.
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#31
by
tonyq
on 01 Nov, 2011 10:36
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This latest information on the existence of a 9 person training group for the SZ-9 and SZ-10 flights provides opportunity to revisit Phil's original question about the possible future crewing scenarios.
The 7 men included in the training group could all be unflown, as there are 8 members of the original selection who are yet to make a spaceflight. However, bearing in mind the complexity of the proposed missions and the possibilty (even liklihood) that not all 14 are still available for selection, it seems that the 7 will include a mix of both flown and unflown candidates.
The 2 women appear to have been 'parachuted' into this training group ahead of their male colleagues from the second selection, based on gender, and it is pretty clear that if all goes to plan with SZ-8, one of them is going to fly next year, probably on SZ-10.
A training group of 9 would of course neatly provide 3 x 3-person crews, and it may well be the Chinese plan to fly 3 men on SZ-9 and 2 men/1 woman on SZ-10. This would be very neat and tidy, but Chinese crewing policy and patterns in the past are unclear, so they could equally produce a 2-person crew for SZ-9, with back-ups, and leave 5 of the training groups not directly involved in that flight, with the crews being totally re-configured for SZ-10!
However, bearing in mind that the Chinese clearly have very specific objectives for their programme over the next 12 months (and beyond) it seems likely that the crewing aspects will be equally well planned and considered, and whilst we cannot be sure of their plans, the most likely and logical scenario is that the 9 person training group is, in reality, already 3 x 3 person crews, one of 3 men and two of 2 men and 1 woman. Soyuz and Shuttle crews are/were generally assigned to specific flight well over 12 months before the planned launch. There is no reason to believe the Chinese are any different, now that flights are becoming more complex and presumably training highly mission specific, so it is likely that prime/back-up assignments already exist.
If this supposition is correct, and assuming that 3 men fly on SZ-9, it will be interesting to see if one of the women appears in the back-up crew for that flight, or is kept in the background until their intended flight on SZ-10?
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#32
by
TALsite
on 09 Nov, 2011 10:15
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This web has a page ( updated 22 October 2011) devoted to the 1998 Astronaut Group with his status. YANG Liwei is retired, and FEI Junlong is the
“Commander of the Astronaut Corps”.http://www.sinodefence.com/space/human-spaceflight/astronaut-1998.aspMore speculation... A few weeks ago I remember that only ZHAO Chuandong and PAN Zhanchun, of the unflown astronauts, were listed, so I thought (maybe) they were on training for the next mission… Unless it is in Chinese language, apparently the names do not follow any alphabetical order.
This web is also reporting a 2010 Group of 5 male astronauts and 2 female as it’s known, but there’s no webpage for them.
“
The five male candidates were all jet fighter pilots, while the two female candidates were transport aircraft pilots. Between them they shared an average flying time of 1,270.7 hours.”
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#33
by
Moe Grills
on 10 Nov, 2011 20:16
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Apparently, two female Taikonauts are INDEED among a small group of candidates selected to become the first crew to visit China's first space station/laboratory.
Whether there will be a coed (mixed gender)crew; I do not know.
But the Chinese space agency has gone out of its way to announce that BOTH female Taikonaut candidates are "married".
The clear implication of that I see is?
Is that if one of these women is selected to join a male taikonaut on board the orbiting Chinese space station/lab the "authorities" will not tolerate any....unofficial 'intimate' experiments in zero-g, if you know what I mean.
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#34
by
Phillip Clark
on 11 Nov, 2011 12:42
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Apparently, two female Taikonauts are INDEED among a small group of candidates selected to become the first crew to visit China's first space station/laboratory.
Whether there will be a coed (mixed gender)crew; I do not know.
But the Chinese space agency has gone out of its way to announce that BOTH female Taikonaut candidates are "married".
The clear implication of that I see is?
Is that if one of these women is selected to join a male taikonaut on board the orbiting Chinese space station/lab the "authorities" will not tolerate any....unofficial 'intimate' experiments in zero-g, if you know what I mean.
Svetlana Savitskaya was still married on her second trip into orbit and that didn't stop the rumours of a "space first" happening during her time on Salyut 7.
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#35
by
Spiff
on 11 Nov, 2011 13:41
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Rumours will be rumours and humans will be humans.
I am convinced that no such 'experiment' is planned by the Chinese management, and I am convinced that any future crewmembers (male and female) are professionals that have other things on their minds.
Having said that, I am also quite convinced that there will be a crowd again, both in China and outside of it, that is convinced that such 'experiments' ARE happening with full knowledge of mission management. It's silly really. But such are humans that smell a saucy story.
There have been quite a few mixed crews on ISS, shuttle and Soyuz in the past 10 years, and nobody cared much about it. Why? Because these missions are only followed by us, the space community. The first Chinese manned mission to TianGong-1 will receive much more media attention again from 'other' media, thus the stories will pop-up again.
This is all my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong, and there will be no 'sex in space' stories going on during the TG-1 manned missions.
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#36
by
aquanaut99
on 11 Nov, 2011 14:06
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This is all my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong, and there will be no 'sex in space' stories going on during the TG-1 manned missions.
Just out of pure interest and please delete if inappropriate (or refer me to the thread where it is discussed): Has "this" actually ever happened? Or is it just tabloids speculating?
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#37
by
Satori
on 11 Nov, 2011 15:09
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This looks like an interesting video and capable of giving some light about the crews:
China trains crew for manned space .
"With the crew already chosen and training underway, they will take control of the rendezvous and docking mission between the two spacecraft. Due to take place next year, the success of the project literally lies in the hands of the astronauts."
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#38
by
tonyq
on 11 Nov, 2011 17:04
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This looks like an interesting video and capable of giving some light about the crews: China trains crew for manned space .
"With the crew already chosen and training underway, they will take control of the rendezvous and docking mission between the two spacecraft. Due to take place next year, the success of the project literally lies in the hands of the astronauts."
Hmm....an interesting find Rui. But the three guys we see are all veterans and they are each wearing the patch of their previous mission. Is that a Chinese 'tradition' that flown taikonauts always wear their old patches, or are those simply old archive clips made before the SZ-6 and 7 missions.
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#39
by
SMS
on 11 Nov, 2011 21:05
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Prime & Backup crews of SZ-6 & 7
