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Chinese Crews - Past and Future (with much speculation and probable errors to be by Phillip Clark on 21 Sep, 2011 08:30
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I am trying to sort out crews for the three Shenzhou flights which we have had so far and pull together some ideas for the Tiangong 1 crewing philosophy.
Shenzhou 5 is dead easy because we had Yang Liwei as the sole yuhangyuan, with Zhai Zhigang as his back-up and Nie Haishen as the support: assuming that the Chinese think of back-up and support in the same way that we do, of course!
Shenzhou 6 had the prime crew of Fei Junlong as commander, Nie Haishen as “operator”, roughly equivalent to the Russian “flight engineer”. If I have read the source data correctly Zhai Zhigang was the back-up commander paired with Wu Jie, with the support crew of Liu Buoming as commander paired with Jing Haipen.
Then along comes Shenzhou 7. Although not the Chinese designators I have Zhai Zhigang as the commander and EV1, Jing Haipen as descent module commander and Liu Buoming as EV2. There appears to have been only a back-up crew with no support crew: Wu Jie, Fei Junlong and Nie Haishen (the two members of the Shenzhou 6 prime crew being recycled – this seems strange to me). There were Chinese statements at the time of Shenzhou 7 that the three back-up men could have taken over any of the roles of the prime crew, but I am not sure that I believe this.
Am I right so far? Or is the above littered with non-factual horrors? Crew members have never been my real forte – they cannot be calculated!
Now to the Shenzhou 9 and 10 missions to Tiangong 1 (the Shenzhou 8 crew is easy, even for me!).
There are different ways that the Chinese might play this. I am assuming that we will have three-person crews (I would guess that the Shenzhou 10 might see China’s first woman in orbit). But how many crews will be formed? We could have four crews of three people, A backed up by B and C backed up by D. On the other hand we might see the idea of just three crews being formed within the training group, A, B and C.
Even with three crews we could have A backed up by B and B backed up by C: or both A and B backed up by C.
The Chinese had 14 yuhangyuans in its first selection and so I think that forming three crews would be “logical”, whatever the back-up pattern might be. I cannot see Yang Liwei flying a second time – at least this early in the programme. But I would not be surprised to see each crew having one flown yuhangyuan as commander with two rookies. That would mean recycling people from Shenzhou 6 and/or a rapid recycle from Shenzhou 7.
We have the following Wu Jie who has had back-up/support roles but not flown yet. Then we have the following from the original selection who have not had any flight assignments connected with the first three Shenzhous: Chen Quan, Deng Qingming, Li Qinglong, Liu Wang, Pan Zhanchun, Zhao Chuandong and Zhang Xiaoguan.
It will be interesting to see when the first crew names start to circulate and who might be getting a second flight (if anyone, of course).
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#1 by Zero-G on 21 Sep, 2011 13:27
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The Chinese had a search and rescue training session this past July, with a Shenzhou DM mockup and 2 taikonauts, involving 100 people from SAR units, 15 ground vehicles , 3 helicopters and also the Mission Control Center in Beijing. The scenario was that during a manned space rendezvous and docking mission, the crew had to do an emergency descent and therefore had landed far off the nominal landing area. It was supposed that one of the crewmembers was well and able to leave the DM by himself to mark the position with smoke, while the second taikonaut remained inside the DM because of injury.
Link to the news on CMSE website: http://www.cmse.gov.cn/news/show.php?itemid=1506 (in chinese but can be translated via google translator)
Would the fact, that there were only two taikonauts in this scenario, not be a hint for the actual crew size for at least the next manned mission (SZ-9)?
I think, it would not make much sense to have such a big exercise with only two taikonauts to be rescued, when for the real mission you would have three crewmembers?
BTW: According to the Spacefacts website, the backup commander on SZ-7 was Chen Quan, not Wu Jie: http://www.spacefacts.de/english/flights.htm -
#2 by Phillip Clark on 21 Sep, 2011 15:31
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Thank you Zero-G, I have updated the Shenzhou 7 back-up commander as Chen Quan, not Wu Jie. Do we know who were the specific back-ups for the other two roles?
The landing tests which you mention might well indicate a two-man crew for SZ 9 but I would still not be surprised not to see three people on 9 and 10, assuming that the docking of SZ 8 goes well. -
#3 by Zero-G on 21 Sep, 2011 16:58
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You're welcome, Phillip.
SZ-7 back-up roles: Fei Junlong was back-up for Liu Boming, and Nie Haisheng was back-up for Jing Haipen (still according to "Spacefacts" website: http://www.spacefacts.de/mission/english/shenzhou_7.htm ) -
#4 by tonyq on 24 Sep, 2011 17:56
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Thanks Phil for starting this discussion and also for the subsequent clarifying posts.
Firstly, it's clear there is no obvious pattern or rota to these crews, save for the fact that the three guys who were in the running for SZ-5 have all flown, so clearly stayed at the 'top of the pile' when the very different SZ-6 and SZ-7 missions were being planned.
This topic is something I've given consideration to over the last few months, so here are some random thoughts (in no particular order) which will hopefully stimulate more debate or discussion:-
-The re-cycling of the SZ-6 crew to back-up SZ-7 was very odd, added to the fact that the Commander was the only rookie. Why? Did he have a higher military rank?
-The Chinese have said that they select a number of crews, and then chose the most suitable crew, as a whole. Does the SZ-7 scenario support this notion? Probably not.
-After 13 years in the taikonaut team, how likely is it that all 14 are still eligible for selection. Could some now be medically disqualified? Yang, Fei and Zhai seem to do quite a lot of media and PR work, both inside and outside China. Are they still active and available for selection. Are they the Chinese Gagarin and Glenn? Is the pool really 9 or 10 active, plus the new group in training
-PLAAF combat pilots have to retire at 50. Is there a limit for taikonauts?
-The second group is only 5 (the two women are probably a special selection) so they must be planning that the original group will dominate the six(?) missions which will service TG-1 to TG-3 (up to 18 seats).
-A two person SZ-9 has been mentioned in some Chinese media. If this happens, then does that undermine the role of the third-seater, unless they are trained for some special role after the docking?
-It is impossible to try to figure out who will fly these missions, however I'll throw in some thoughts. If SZ-9 and SZ-10 take place c6 months apart (say April 2012 and October 2012) then they will probably have two separate pools of crews. Chen Quan would be logical choice to figure somewhere as the back-up commander of the last manned flight. But as we have said, there is no logic in any of this.
-A lot of Chinese mass media suggesting lately that a woman will fly on SZ-9. This seems unlikely to me, however if all goes to plan on SZ-8 and 9, including a woman on SZ-10 seems probable.
-The women are military transport pilots - different background and experience. The fact that they only selected two suggests they may well be being fast-tracked to occupy the third seat on a single propaganda mission. The only thing that mitigates against this theory is that this type of mission could have been flown by one of their much younger female fighter pilots, which was their original plan, but who were ultimately not considered.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=7058.75
As I said, just a few random thoughts.
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#5 by Olaf on 27 Sep, 2011 10:42
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-After 13 years in the taikonaut team, how likely is it that all 14 are still eligible for selection. Could some now be medically disqualified? Yang, Fei and Zhai seem to do quite a lot of media and PR work, both inside and outside China. Are they still active and available for selection. Are they the Chinese Gagarin and Glenn? Is the pool really 9 or 10 active, plus the new group in training
Novosti kosmonavtiki cited Fei on Sept, 8th, that the Chinese astronaut group consist of 21 people (19 men and 2 women).
There are 14 people from the first group and 7 from the second. -
#6 by Olaf on 27 Sep, 2011 10:49
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-A lot of Chinese mass media suggesting lately that a woman will fly on SZ-9. This seems unlikely to me, however if all goes to plan on SZ-8 and 9, including a woman on SZ-10 seems probable.
They also quoted Yang, that the decision to include a women into the crew ,will be done near to the flight date. -
#7 by tonyq on 27 Sep, 2011 11:20
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Novosti kosmonavtiki cited Fei on Sept, 8th, that the Chinese astronaut group consist of 21 people (19 men and 2 women).
There are 14 people from the first group and 7 from the second.
I appreciate that Fei said this to NK, but the Chinese tend to give very little away officially, and generally just repeat what we already know. To say anything else would confirm that some are no longer active and they probably don't want to do this, and in any event Fei wouldn't be authorised to say anything which wasn't the 'party line'.
After 13 years and 3 manned flights, it seems quite likely that some (both flown and unflown) are now no longer available for selection, and are in management type roles, although technically still taikonauts, in a similar fashion to NASA management astronauts. -
#8 by tonyq on 27 Sep, 2011 11:24
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-A lot of Chinese mass media suggesting lately that a woman will fly on SZ-9. This seems unlikely to me, however if all goes to plan on SZ-8 and 9, including a woman on SZ-10 seems probable.
They also quoted Yang, that the decision to include a women into the crew ,will be done near to the flight date.
Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
Again, Yang would say what he said because they will wish to keep their options open at this stage, as there are are lots of hurdles to clear with both hardware and the training of the people, before SZ-10 flies. -
#9 by tonyq on 27 Sep, 2011 12:22
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Chinese sources reporting today that the female Air Force pilot, Wang Yaping will be included in the crew of SZ-10:-
http://www.worldjournal.com/view/aChinanews/15682008/article-%E5%A5%B3%E8%88%AA%E5%A4%A9%E5%93%A1%E7%8E%8B%E4%BA%9E%E5%B9%B3-%E5%85%A9%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A7%E9%A3%9B%E7%A5%9E10?instance=china_bull
Wang Yaping was first identified as a taikonaut candidate, and reported exclusively on NSF, in November 2010:-
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/11/indentity-chinese-female-taikonaut-candidate-revealed/ -
#10 by Phillip Clark on 27 Sep, 2011 15:19
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Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
This could be a garbled version of the prime crew for SZ10 havng a woman assigned with the second woman in the SZ10 back-up team. -
#11 by tonyq on 27 Sep, 2011 17:20
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Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
This could be a garbled version of the prime crew for SZ10 havng a woman assigned with the second woman in the SZ10 back-up team.
Absolutely! I'd guess the intention was to say something like 'two women astronauts will be involved in SZ-10' and it has been turned into something slightly different. -
#12 by Liss on 27 Sep, 2011 20:20
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I appreciate that Fei said this to NK, but the Chinese tend to give very little away officially, and generally just repeat what we already know. To say anything else would confirm that some are no longer active and they probably don't want to do this, and in any event Fei wouldn't be authorised to say anything which wasn't the 'party line'.
Strictly speaking, both Yang and Fei said almost the same – one to NK and another to a person who regularly writes for NK. They indeed were not going to reveal any new information. -
#13 by Spiff on 30 Sep, 2011 09:04
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Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
This could be a garbled version of the prime crew for SZ10 havng a woman assigned with the second woman in the SZ10 back-up team.
Absolutely! I'd guess the intention was to say something like 'two women astronauts will be involved in SZ-10' and it has been turned into something slightly different.
How strict are the Chinese in separation of sexes? In other words, would it be morally acceptable to the average Chinese person to have a man and a woman who are not married to live together in a space station for two weeks?
I don't know much about Chinese moral. If however there is a strict moral, that could be a reason to have a 2 men flight on SZ-9 and a two women flight on SZ-10.
Just thinking out loud here... -
#14 by tonyq on 30 Sep, 2011 12:42
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If I may also do some thinking aloud too, having read dozens of both English and Chinese reports over the last few days, here is a possible scenario for the SZ-9 and SZ-10 flights.
Although there is some talk about both SZ-8 and SZ-9 being unmanned, I’d guess that the Chinese intention is that SZ-9 will be manned as long as everything goes well on SZ-8. It would be illogical to build TG-1 for manned occupancy capability and then only visit it once .
As we are only 6-8 months away from SZ-9 launch, then they must have some well advanced crewing plans – NASA and Russian crews are assigned well over a year in advance of their flights and there seems to be no reason why China should be any different, especially as they are making what are in effect ‘test flights’.
The SZ-9 and SZ-10 flights will need at least three crews (two of whom will fly), as it would seem unlikely that the crews would back-up each other, and at this stage, it would be sensible to have four crews in training, to allow for unforeseen issues over the next year.
There is also the issue of crew size, and I’d speculate that SZ-9 may well be planned to fly with a crew of two. This means that there will be eight taikonauts required to make up the four crews.
As I said previously, I doubt very much that all fourteen of the original selection are now available to fly. Yang and Zhai are ‘national treasures’ and Fei seems to be a regular ambassador for the Chinese programme (according to those who have met him, he is an impressive guy and well suited to that role). The new selection have only been training for 18 months, so it is very unlikely that any of them are included in the possible four crews I mentioned, which means that most of the original fourteen will be in those crews or are already excluded. By implication, several of those who flew in SZ-6 and SZ-7 must be in those two person teams and in line to fly again.
There has been a lot of talk about the female taikonauts flying on SZ-10, so much so that I would guess that, again, if all goes well on SZ-8 and then SZ-9, they currently plan to include a woman on SZ-10.
It may already be that Capt. Wang Yaping who’s name and photograph have been widely reported is already pencilled in for this flight.
However, despite their inclusion in the second taikonaut group, I’d speculate that the women are really a ‘special selection’ and the plan is for one of them to fly in the third seat as what is really a ‘space flight participant’ (although the Chinese won’t portray it that way). The Russians have shown that 12 months is enough to train someone for that type of role. In other words, they are on a different training sequence to core crews and the five men in the second group. So the women will continue to train for a ‘third seat’ ride on SZ-10 over the next 6-8 months, and then after SZ-9 has flown successfully, if all is still on track, they will be attached to the existing crew pairs to form prime and back-up crews for SZ-10 and will have a 6 month or so final training period, which is broadly similar to the Soyuz SFP flights.
So, my guess is that the crewing pattern will be:-
SZ-9 Prime - Two man crew 1, Back-up Two man crew 2
SZ-10 Prime – Two man crew 2 + Wang Yaping, Back-up Two man crew 3 + unknown woman
Turing to the moral question of mixed crews, I don’t know that Chinese attitudes are either, but flying two women on SZ-10 after only two years of training looks like a very unlikely option when the Chinese seem very keen to minimise risk and maximise safety.
Discuss!! -
#15 by Liss on 30 Sep, 2011 13:06
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I'd guess the Chinese think of two different scenarios for SZ-9 and SZ-10. In the first case, docking and transfer would be enough to claim success so the SZ-9 visit may be rather short. Then I'd plan a longer stay for SZ-10. This logic dictates two pairs of crews with different scope of training.
It is reasonable to think that SZ-9 needs only two crewmembers while SZ-10 may be planned for three. But we don't know if TG-1 may support many man-days; so it may turn the opposite way: three-person short visit and two-person longer stay. -
#16 by TALsite on 30 Sep, 2011 13:30
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...If however there is a strict moral, that could be a reason to have a 2 men flight on SZ-9 and a two women flight on SZ-10.
Just thinking out loud here...
This would be one "space-first" for China: First (multi-seat) all-female crew.
Soviets tried to do it with Savitskaya-Ivanova-Dobrokvashina in Salyut 7.
And maybe SZ-10 could be a repeat of SZ-09 with two women, and SZ-11 a three-men long duration flight... -
#17 by tonyq on 30 Sep, 2011 14:50
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...If however there is a strict moral, that could be a reason to have a 2 men flight on SZ-9 and a two women flight on SZ-10.
Just thinking out loud here...
This would be one "space-first" for China: First (multi-seat) all-female crew.
Soviets tried to do it with Savitskaya-Ivanova-Dobrokvashina in Salyut 7.
And maybe SZ-10 could be a repeat of SZ-09 with two women, and SZ-11 a three-men long duration flight...
Whilst this would be an appealing idea, I don't think the Chinese are interested in 'firsts' or records, and as I definitiely sense that the shortened training window for the women means they will probably not be as fully trained to actually FLY Shenzhou as the veteran men, it would be a unacceptably risky mission.
There is currently no mention of SZ-11, although if they succeed in flying SZ-9 and SZ-10 in 2012, there may be a window for another flight in 2013, before TG-1 is de-orbited. Will depend on the hardware and what can be achieved. So far, the Chinese have shown no interest in repeating things they have already done - each manned flight represents significant steps forward.
Igor - you may be right that SZ-9 and SZ-10 will have very different objectives, which require different skills, and so the crews may develop independently. -
#18 by Phillip Clark on 30 Sep, 2011 16:04
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I'd guess the Chinese think of two different scenarios for SZ-9 and SZ-10. In the first case, docking and transfer would be enough to claim success so the SZ-9 visit may be rather short. Then I'd plan a longer stay for SZ-10. This logic dictates two pairs of crews with different scope of training.
It is reasonable to think that SZ-9 needs only two crewmembers while SZ-10 may be planned for three. But we don't know if TG-1 may support many man-days; so it may turn the opposite way: three-person short visit and two-person longer stay.
Excellent thinking, Igor!
Of course, the Shenzhou will have to carry the food and water for the crews since there is no cargo freighter capability. So this on its own suggests fairly short missions. Plus the size of Tiangong means that there is less living space than on either the DOS or Almaz stations (Skylab using a modified S-IVB was like a giant, relatively empty empty can!). -
#19 by baldusi on 30 Sep, 2011 18:47
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May I point out to this picture? IT clearly states that SZ-9 will be manned contingent to the results of SZ-8.