Author Topic: NASA Releases Commercial Crew Draft RFP, Announces CCDEV2 Optional Milestones  (Read 66029 times)

Offline BrightLight

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I have not seen that Spacex is willing to fly the CST-100 (if you have a citation, please re-post).  If this is true then a Dragon and CST-100 capability would provide remarkable redundancy - two unique space craft and two unique LV's. Although a lifting body spacecraft (Dream Chaser)  would offer unique capability but appears to have the longest path to go to IOC.

Offline joek

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The 7% socioeconomic subcontracting requirement does seem low (I seem to remember ~20% or higher from other FAR contracts). Do you think this is based on experience with COTS and the earlier CCDev rounds?

7.5% is the contribution of the subcontracting plan to the proposal evaluation (75 out of 1000 points), not a percentage of contract value.

Offline peter-b

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The 7% socioeconomic subcontracting requirement does seem low (I seem to remember ~20% or higher from other FAR contracts). Do you think this is based on experience with COTS and the earlier CCDev rounds?

7.5% is the contribution of the subcontracting plan to the proposal evaluation (75 out of 1000 points), not a percentage of contract value.

Ah, okay, I misunderstood. Do you have any idea what the required subcontracted value is?
Research Scientist (Sensors), Sharp Laboratories of Europe, UK

Offline R.Simko

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Let me clarify my statement.  No I have not seen SpaceX ever indicate that they would be willing to fly Dragon on Atlas or any other launcher.  It is my hopes that the logic to being able to interchange Dragon/Falcon and Atlas/CST-100 would prove so sensible to the companies involved and NASA and America at large, that they would considder it. 

I guess what I am doing, is calling for this to be a solution, where it is a win-win for the companies involved and for America.  How many times have we seen the indisputable need for redundancy in our HSF?  To bring CST-100 and Dragon close to completion and to cast one of them aside and the redundancy they would bring, would be in my opinion sheer lunacy.

I'm sure that there are SpaceX employees reading this site, prehaps one of them could put this idea before Elon.

Offline joek

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Ah, okay, I misunderstood. Do you have any idea what the required subcontracted value is?

Hard to tell; per 148508-DRAFT-001-005:

"The NASA Administrator is required by statute to establish annually a goal to make available to small disadvantaged business concerns, Historically Black Colleges and Universities, minority institutions, and women-owned small business concerns, at least 8 percent of NASA's procurement dollars under prime contracts or subcontracts awarded in support of authorized programs..." (pg 53).

"The Contracting Officer’s assessment of appropriate subcontracting goals for this acquisition, expressed as a percent of TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE (basic and all options combined), is as follows: ...", which totals 6.2% (pg 83).

While it appears they're relaxing the requirements for Phase 1, they warn that "Phase 2 small business subcontracting goals will be higher than in Phase 1" (pg 51).

Offline joek

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So, is this a reaction to the House's 350 million or the Senate's 500 million? Also, standard DFTT disclaimer, guys.

The RFP appears to be constructed with a $500M/yr FY12-13 funding profile in mind ($1.61B FY12-13 PBR minus $0.48B optional Phase 1 elements = $565M/yr x2).

However, it also allows for acceleration of Phase 2 work (development, testing and certification) if additional funds are available, as vendors may propose as much Phase 2 work as they have an appetite for in the optional portion of Phase 1 proposals.  Also, a beneficial side effect is that those optional parts (assuming they are proposed) gives NASA better insight into Phase 2 timing and funding requirements.

I don't understand why people think a 350 million dollar budget will cause a down-select to a single vendor.

The current CCDev-2 awards were for roughly 75 million each, right ? Continuing at the same funding level, that's 75 mil * 4 = 300 million, plus another 50 million for NASA to administer the program. The current year commerical development budget might have been larger, but NASA was also funding COTS at the same time. The COTS milestones should be complete by March / April, although I don't know if that funding is rolling over from the prior year, since those goals were to be accomplished in the prior fiscal year.

If any vendor has an issue with the FAR contract, I'm sure NASA would be willing to place them on an unfunded SAA instead. That's something each vendor will have to weigh. Can they meet the requirements in NASA's RFP for a lower overall development cost and bring their product to market faster if they aren't burdened by NASA oversight ?

CCDev-2 is focused on components.  IDC/CCDev-3 is focused on complete systems; more time, effort and money--not to mention the additional NASA insight/oversight and FAR nreporting/compliance burdens.

If vendors were to forego the IDC/CCDev-3 (Phase 1) contract, it's questionable how much faster or cheaper it would be, as Phase 2 awardees will have to demonstrate that they meet the same level of system maturity and requirements as Phase 1 participants, ultimately have to meet FAR requirements for an acquisition contract, but would incur the entire cost and risk on their own.

If the "market" was larger than NASA (at least in the near term), life might be different, and time and cost to service that market (as opposed to just NASA) would weigh more heavily in the vendor's decision.  Unfortunately, that's not life today or for the foreseeable future.

COTS funds are rolling over and are separate from CCDev funds.
« Last Edit: 09/20/2011 11:52 pm by joek »

Offline erioladastra

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I have not seen that Spacex is willing to fly the CST-100 (if you have a citation, please re-post).  If this is true then a Dragon and CST-100 capability would provide remarkable redundancy - two unique space craft and two unique LV's. Although a lifting body spacecraft (Dream Chaser)  would offer unique capability but appears to have the longest path to go to IOC.

CST-100 is only committed to Atlas for development.  CST is being designed to perhaps work on Flacon down the road.

Offline BrightLight

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Is launch vehicle redundancy required for Commercial Crew?  I have seen the power point slide of CST-100 on the Falcon but no official description of an interface for the SpaceX avionics environment or vehicle.  If CST-100 flies on an Atlas V and Dragon only flies on Falcon then these really aren't redundant as they are separate complete non-interacting systems.

Offline joek

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Is launch vehicle redundancy required for Commercial Crew?  I have seen the power point slide of CST-100 on the Falcon but no official description of an interface for the SpaceX avionics environment or vehicle.

Launch vehicle redundancy is not a requirement.

Quote
If CST-100 flies on an Atlas V and Dragon only flies on Falcon then these really aren't redundant as they are separate complete non-interacting systems.

If both are available they would provide redundant crew transportation capabilities and presumably competitive services, which are the most important attributes.

Offline baldusi

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Is launch vehicle redundancy required for Commercial Crew?  I have seen the power point slide of CST-100 on the Falcon but no official description of an interface for the SpaceX avionics environment or vehicle.

Launch vehicle redundancy is not a requirement.

Quote
If CST-100 flies on an Atlas V and Dragon only flies on Falcon then these really aren't redundant as they are separate complete non-interacting systems.

If both are available they would provide redundant crew transportation capabilities and presumably competitive services, which are the most important attributes.
A slight technicality, but if they are not interchangeable, you could be grounded if you had a capsule failure and the other LV has a problem. In that case, with interchangeable LV/capsules you are covered. Quite a corner case, and may be not really worth the money.
But again, if SpaceX is left out of the commercial crew capsules, I'm sure they will try to make a very sweet deal on the LV to the winners. And if they are in, they would get a launch with the competitor's craft for sending a Dragon in an Atlas V. And once they've demonstrated, they could bid the Falcon 9 against ULA. So, overall, they should do it.
I do wonder if the Dragon can be adapted to the Atlas V. Because if CST-100 and Dreamchaser are compatible with both Atlas V and Falcon 9, and Dragon only with Falcon 9, it could be a point against them.
« Last Edit: 09/21/2011 03:12 pm by baldusi »

Offline BrightLight

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If SpaceX does indeed intend to launch other vendors orbital systems such  as the Boeing CST-100 then there would be clear redundancy but SpaceX has not made it obvious they will do this.  I an not privy to the SpaceX  market strategy and the lack of public discussion on alternative payloads for the Falcon  give the impression that SpaceX is not interested (if their are contradictory info, please post).  I agree that from here it looks like a great idea to be able to launch the CST-100 on Falcon and even Dragon on Atlas V, but this is assuming a great deal about desire and capability.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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The larger Atlas V can lift heaver payloads than the Falcon 9.  So it may be possible to use the cargo Dragon as a space tug to guide cargoes launched on the Atlas V to their destination.  A small RCS may also be needed.

Offline baldusi

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If SpaceX does indeed intend to launch other vendors orbital systems such  as the Boeing CST-100 then there would be clear redundancy but SpaceX has not made it obvious they will do this.  I an not privy to the SpaceX  market strategy and the lack of public discussion on alternative payloads for the Falcon  give the impression that SpaceX is not interested (if their are contradictory info, please post).  I agree that from here it looks like a great idea to be able to launch the CST-100 on Falcon and even Dragon on Atlas V, but this is assuming a great deal about desire and capability.
May be I didn't made myself clear. Even though I think I've read somewhere that SpaceX stated they would launch another's craft, I can't find such quote and thus would consider it invalid (for now).
But SpaceX is a commercial entity. And as an economist, I can estimate what would make them earn more money (and this includes competition analysis and cross substitution). Normally, very integrated companies, fail to maximize profits because they protect each non competitive products with their very competitive products. But this is a special case.
As I stated before, after the CCS are given, SpaceX can find itself in three different scenarios:
1) Be the only supplier. So, if Boeing wants to pay them to actually test a CST-100, it would be another client. It shouldn't give CST-100 a better position on the next round, since Dragon Crew would have been proven for whatever number of launches they have contracted. And if they keep being price leaders, they will be in the best competitive position.
2) They get no contract. They have nothing to lose, and might even take some money out of ULA. In the case that there are two spacecrafts, then they could really compete on price with ULA for the LV, which is their core business.
3) They get a contract and somebody else gets another one. What would they lose from letting the other supplier demonstrate integration? They already have their contract, and it's not like they will underprice themselves. I really don't see why they wouldn't.
What I don't think they would do, at least in case 1) and 3), is pay anything for themselves. In case 3) it would probably be some extra NASA money to both suppliers, to have cross compatibility. But overall, they wouldn't mind in any case. At least, not from my (light) business analysis.
What I do think, is that the Dragon/Falcon 9 stack is very integrated, and it might be possible that it requires such extreme measures to make it compatible with the Atlas V, as to not be worth the cost. But I think of this as a probability, out of my complete lack of information.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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There are five items for interfacing to a LV:
1) Acoustic
2) Acceleration
3) Electrical
4) Software
5) Mechanical

1) This one is nearly identical for both F9 and Atlas V so it’s not a concern to designers.

2) This one is also nearly identical for both F9 and Atlas V.

3) This one is very different and would be an established interface that the LV would not change unless you paid lots of money to do a special box to convert to the interface specified by the spacecraft. Dragon is natively designed to interface to F9 and CST-100 is natively designed to interface to Atlas V. Dream Chaser is probably going to be natively designed to the Atlas V interface. For CST and Dream Chaser to be able to fly a F9 they can share the same electrical interface conversion box design that would reside on the F9 US.

4) This one is the largest concern. Every spacecraft has different information needs and commands. This is where most of the costs for interfacing to the other LV would occur. A manned spacecraft requires “tight” software integration with the LV for information flow from the LV and commands to the LV. Software interfaces on both the LV and spacecraft would be needed for each pairing that would be unique to the pair of LV and spacecraft. These interface software items would be similar to device drivers to give a PC terminology of how they are implemented in modern software.

5) Although unique to each spacecraft it is rather simple using modern CAD systems to design this LV portion adapter for the spacecraft. This is done for a lot of regular satellites as well so the LV provider is used to doing this work as part of normal LV services.

Offline baldusi

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...
5) Mechanical
....
5) Although unique to each spacecraft it is rather simple using modern CAD systems to design this LV portion adapter for the spacecraft. This is done for a lot of regular satellites as well so the LV provider is used to doing this work as part of normal LV services.
What I've deducted from looking into the Dragon's Trunk, is that is so optimized to the F9 US, that it respect the curvature of the US top tank. It would seem to be an extremely optimized design. It might be very expensive to adapt.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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...
5) Mechanical
....
5) Although unique to each spacecraft it is rather simple using modern CAD systems to design this LV portion adapter for the spacecraft. This is done for a lot of regular satellites as well so the LV provider is used to doing this work as part of normal LV services.
What I've deducted from looking into the Dragon's Trunk, is that is so optimized to the F9 US, that it respect the curvature of the US top tank. It would seem to be an extremely optimized design. It might be very expensive to adapt.

There would be a similar challenge to adapt the Dragon trunk to a Centaur.

The shape of the trunk is actually to accomodate the thrust cone for the satellite/spacecraft mount which houses among other things secondary payloads.

Of either vehicle for manned spacecraft mecanically, the Atlas V's Centaur represents the more dificult case for mechanical interface since it is a smaller diameter than the Atlas V.

Offline erioladastra

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There are five items for interfacing to a LV:
1) Acoustic
2) Acceleration
3) Electrical
4) Software
5) Mechanical

1) This one is nearly identical for both F9 and Atlas V so it’s not a concern to designers.


Not neccessairly.  I don't think the thrust profiles through max Q are the same (but going off top of head, not sure and Atlas is updating theirs) plus I think the aborts might be slight different. 

Offline mmeijeri

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A manned spacecraft requires “tight” software integration with the LV for information flow from the LV and commands to the LV.

Is that true even if the spacecraft doesn't need the capability to control the launch vehicle? I vaguely remember reading that NASA originally had a requirement that Orion should be able to control Ares I but that that requirement was later dropped.

Quote
Software interfaces on both the LV and spacecraft would be needed for each pairing that would be unique to the pair of LV and spacecraft.

Couldn't you have a generic interface so you would need n + m instead of n x m implementations? Edit: not that it makes much of a difference for low values of m and n...
« Last Edit: 09/22/2011 02:08 am by mmeijeri »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Also a possible issue: horizontal versus vertical integration. Falcon 9 (and Dragon, though probably less of an issue) has payloads integrated horizontally, while Atlas V has them integrated vertically.
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Offline joek

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Another ray of hope with regards to the potential down-select...
NASA plans to fund only one CCDev company? Probably not., NewSpace Journal, Sep 21 2011:
Quote
In addition, when talking to Florida Today reporter James Dean yesterday for an article he wrote about CCDev, he shared with me a clarification he received from NASA on that issue. It turns out that the clause in question is a standard one in FAR-based contracts, and that the Commercial Crew Program was “investigating getting a waiver or deviation from this standard clause language for the final RFP.”

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