SpaceX COTS Demo 2/3 Updates (THREAD 2)

[pippin]

Have a look at the manifest:
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

If you take away stuff that is far into the future it's pretty much NASA dominated

For now the "idea" behind commercial is to have contracts for resupply (and later crew) competed and to have more than one supplier at a time.

[manboy]

These are the steps that need to happen before COTS Demo 2/3 will take place

1. The ISS must be fully maned with 6 crew members after the next Soyuz launch is complete the TBD will be removed and a date for launch will be set.

2. Before the 3rd part of the COTS mission the dragon flight everything must go well before the final GO to dock with the ISS.

It's actually berthing not docking.

mb199's statements are unsubstantiated and unsourced.
His first statement is not a single coherent sentence.
There is no way mb199 can state that these are all the necessary and sufficient conditions for berthing. 
This has been discussed over and over.
And all you can says is "berthing, not docking"?
(You editied your remarks.  Did you type "birthing"?)
:-)

I added the "actually" part, I thought it sounded less rude.

[go4mars]

The manifest is still relevant to this discussion even though dedicated commercial launches may be in the future instead of the past. 
1) Commercial launches on the manifest provide some money now that impacts internal price requirements/baselines for NASA.
2) Commercial launches on the manifest are projected to provide future revenue which also definitely impacts SpaceX's internal cash flow projections, and hence current pricing requirements. 

As to no non-NASA use foreseen for Dragon, near term, we can agree on that.  Further out, SpaceX does see uses (dragonlab, red dragon, tourism (especially if they make a reusable rocket), etc.

For a private company (hobby), discounted ROI does not have to make sense for all projects or components.  For example, BEO heatshield.

[mr. mark]

Spacex is fulfilling commercial contracts starting with COTS 2/3 which, if approved, will also launch 2 ORBCOMM satellites. So, they will be starting to address their commercial manifest NOW not sometime in the far off future. 

[pippin]

It's relevant but we are not talking about a situation where there is a development that's being done for a purely commercial application with 10 or 100 times the volume of the gov. contract where you just want to take a component "as is" to achieve dramatic cost savings even if it's not a 100% fit for your purpose.

This is what we were discussing above, nothing else.

Here, we are talking about a development specifically being done to meet requirements of a government customer (dragon) where you might get some cost savings from commercial contracts plus you might bring in some own cost savings ideas because you start from scratch and don't have a "we've always done it that way" attitude.

These are two fundamentally different things. I've worked in similar projects, both kinds of, and believe me, in the first case the dominating attitude is "OK, if we can do it with only insignificant changes, we try, otherwise we let it be. Take it or leave it". That's certainly not SpaceX's attitude here.

In the second case it's more like: "Can we find some off-the-shelf stuff to reduce the cost of our custom-made project, if not, we need to invent it for this project.". And you have to be aware that incumbents in spaceflight ("old space") are not complete morons, too, so they will do the same meaning you end up with much, much less comparative advantage.

There simply are no "we are using this on every other manned flight to a space station, so either ISS accepts it or we don't go" components in this game.

[ugordan]

Any idea when they're going to integrate the whole stack? It was reported here a couple of weeks ago that it would be done by Thanksgiving. Did it happen or was it delayed, just like everything else?

[wolfpack]

Any idea when they're going to integrate the whole stack? It was reported here a couple of weeks ago that it would be done by Thanksgiving. Did it happen or was it delayed, just like everything else?

I would guess they are waiting for a target launch date. Also, has it been decided if the Orbcomm satellites fly or not? Haven't heard. I would think that affects things as well.

Soyuz is targeted for Dec 20, right? I'd expect a decision right after the new year if Soyuz goes on time.

[Jorge]

These are the steps that need to happen before COTS Demo 2/3 will take place

1. The ISS must be fully maned with 6 crew members after the next Soyuz launch is complete the TBD will be removed and a date for launch will be set.

2. Before the 3rd part of the COTS mission the dragon flight everything must go well before the final GO to dock with the ISS.

It's actually berthing not docking.

mb199's statements are unsubstantiated and unsourced.
His first statement is not a single coherent sentence.
There is no way mb199 can state that these are all the necessary and sufficient conditions for berthing. 
This has been discussed over and over.
And all you can says is "berthing, not docking"?
(You editied your remarks.  Did you type "birthing"?)
:-)

Here, let me state it coherently:

1) Dragon requires two trained crewmembers to berth it. Dan Burbank is the only crewmember currently aboard ISS who has completed the training, so Dragon C3 cannot proceed until the next Soyuz arrives with Don Pettit or his backup. At that time, ISS will have a crew of six. So the requirement is not that ISS have a crew of six, but the real requirement (two trained crewmembers aboard) will not be satisfied until there is a crew of six.

2) The C3 demos will not proceed until both MCC-H and MCC-X issue a "go", and MCC-H will not issue a "go" until every C2 demo objective has been completed successfully, and until the data for any in-flight anomalies during C2 have been presented to MCC-H and thoroughly resolved by MCC-X.

[mb199]

These are the steps that need to happen before COTS Demo 2/3 will take place

1. The ISS must be fully maned with 6 crew members after the next Soyuz launch is complete the TBD will be removed and a date for launch will be set.

2. Before the 3rd part of the COTS mission the dragon flight everything must go well before the final GO to dock with the ISS.

It's actually berthing not docking.

mb199's statements are unsubstantiated and unsourced.
His first statement is not a single coherent sentence.
There is no way mb199 can state that these are all the necessary and sufficient conditions for berthing. 
This has been discussed over and over.
And all you can says is "berthing, not docking"?
(You editied your remarks.  Did you type "birthing"?)
:-)

Here, let me state it coherently:

1) Dragon requires two trained crewmembers to berth it. Dan Burbank is the only crewmember currently aboard ISS who has completed the training, so Dragon C3 cannot proceed until the next Soyuz arrives with Don Pettit or his backup. At that time, ISS will have a crew of six. So the requirement is not that ISS have a crew of six, but the real requirement (two trained crewmembers aboard) will not be satisfied until there is a crew of six.

2) The C3 demos will not proceed until both MCC-H and MCC-X issue a "go", and MCC-H will not issue a "go" until every C2 demo objective has been completed successfully, and until the data for any in-flight anomalies during C2 have been presented to MCC-H and thoroughly resolved by MCC-X.






Thank-you!!

[Prober]

SpaceX PAO with a statement (this is all that was sent):

"SpaceX Launch Update:

NASA is working with SpaceX on our technical and safety data for this mission while coordinating with its international partners to sort out a launch schedule once a definitive decision is reached on the next Soyuz flight to the International Space Station.

As a result, we've submitted December 19th to NASA and the Air Force as the first in a range of dates that we would be ready to launch.

We recognize that a target launch date cannot be set until NASA gives us the green light and the partnership of the International Space Station make a decision on when to continue Soyuz flights.

Our flight is one of many that have to be carefully coordinated,  so the ultimate schedule of launches to the ISS is still under consideration."

Wonder if we can get an update from SpaceX as to the progress of the HW being assembled by Dec. 19th?    Have any pics to show us?    Would enjoy seeing the Dragon/trunk & launcher mated.    Can you fuel the Dragon in horz before launch?

[Garrett]

No, the CUCU is all Spacex hardware and it is independent of ISS avionics. 
   

Surely if SpaceX wanted to update their hardware via a network link then that would be ISS dependent? If SpaceX had wanted to, could they have asked NASA for a network link to update their firmware?

[Antares]

I don't really have anything new to say. I just want Jorge's salient, 100% spot-on comments to appear again, so that people without a badge can understand what's going on.  And, this isn't NASA being obstructionist.  This is NASA interpreting SpaceX's response to NASA-written requirements, which were written in 2006.  If SpaceX wanted it done sooner, SpaceX should have attempted to fulfill the requirements sooner.

Here, let me state it coherently:

1) Dragon requires two trained crewmembers to berth it. Dan Burbank is the only crewmember currently aboard ISS who has completed the training, so Dragon C3 cannot proceed until the next Soyuz arrives with Don Pettit or his backup. At that time, ISS will have a crew of six. So the requirement is not that ISS have a crew of six, but the real requirement (two trained crewmembers aboard) will not be satisfied until there is a crew of six.

2) The C3 demos will not proceed until both MCC-H and MCC-X issue a "go", and MCC-H will not issue a "go" until every C2 demo objective has been completed successfully, and until the data for any in-flight anomalies during C2 have been presented to MCC-H and thoroughly resolved by MCC-X.

[Comga]

I don't really have anything new to say. I just want Jorge's salient, 100% spot-on comments to appear again, so that people without a badge can understand what's going on.  And, this isn't NASA being obstructionist.  This is NASA interpreting SpaceX's response to NASA-written requirements, which were written in 2006.  If SpaceX wanted it done sooner, SpaceX should have attempted to fulfill the requirements sooner.

Here, let me state it coherently:

1) Dragon requires two trained crewmembers to berth it. Dan Burbank is the only crewmember currently aboard ISS who has completed the training, so Dragon C3 cannot proceed until the next Soyuz arrives with Don Pettit or his backup. At that time, ISS will have a crew of six. So the requirement is not that ISS have a crew of six, but the real requirement (two trained crewmembers aboard) will not be satisfied until there is a crew of six.

2) The C3 demos will not proceed until both MCC-H and MCC-X issue a "go", and MCC-H will not issue a "go" until every C2 demo objective has been completed successfully, and until the data for any in-flight anomalies during C2 have been presented to MCC-H and thoroughly resolved by MCC-X.

Without a doubt.  A clear statement of requirements, especially the two trained astronaut issue.  However aren't there a few others like the Russians signing off on the Dragon's secondary payloads?

A quick search says MCC-H is NASA's Mission Control Center at JSC in Houston and MCC-X is SpaceX's control room in Hawthorne, CA.  It also shows MCC-M as the Russian control room outside of Moscow.  Are those correct? 

And please don't think I was saying that NASA is "obstructionist".  This is obviously not child's play.

[Antares]

Wasn't directed at you, Comga.  Several posters on this and other sites try to blame NASA for the delays.

[Chris Bergin]

Tough crowd on here! .....so into the lion's den, with:

SpaceX Dragon ISS flight to slip further, pending combined mission approval:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/12/spacex-dragon-flight-slipping-further-combined-approval/

[Robotbeat]

Tough crowd on here! .....so into the lion's den, with:

SpaceX Dragon ISS flight to slip further, pending combined mission approval:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/12/spacex-dragon-flight-slipping-further-combined-approval/

Thanks for the article!

Have a few questions:
"However, Dragon requires two trained crewmembers to berth it..." Is this really a requirement for Dragon, or is it that NASA just has a policy of having two astronauts having the same capability, so one is available as a back up? The way it's worded, it makes it APPEAR that it's a rock-solid requirement coming from the nature of Dragon itself (i.e. it's not even possible without two trained astronauts), but I'm pretty sure it's just to make sure there's a back up (a good policy), in case one of them has to use the bathroom or something. Which is it?

Another question:
"approval for the combination of the C2/C3 (D2/D3) missions – which would result in Dragon arriving at the orbital outpost – is still pending official approval from NASA and the ISS partners."
This is obviously not your fault, but nowhere in the entire article is the most obvious question of WHY the decision is "still pending" answered. Seriously, what's the deal? Such a lack of explanation for something like that invites speculation.

It allows those who are wont to blame NASA to blame NASA, those who are wont to blame SpaceX to blame SpaceX, and those who are wont to blame Russia blame Russia (your article hints in that direction, but doesn't outright say it... was it intentional to slightly hint that the reason for the continual delay in approval for combining the flights lies with Russia?).

Thanks again.

[SpaceX_MS]

Tough crowd on here! .....so into the lion's den, with:

SpaceX Dragon ISS flight to slip further, pending combined mission approval:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/12/spacex-dragon-flight-slipping-further-combined-approval/

Thanks for being less dramatic than some other media orgs have been, Chris!

"However, Dragon requires two trained crewmembers to berth it..." Is this really a requirement for Dragon.

Yes. A Dragon requirement.

nowhere in the entire article is the most obvious question of WHY the decision is "still pending" answered. Seriously, what's the deal?

Not for media or public consumption.

[Robotbeat]

Thank you, very much!!!

(Good luck, and Godspeed!)

[MP99]

Thank you, very much!!!

(Good luck, and Godspeed!)

+1

cheers, Martin

[mr. mark]

COTS is proving to be a big plus for Spacex. For a small company that just started 8 years ago, COTS is pushing their ability to advance quickly much faster than with most start ups. With it comes great highs for their program and possibly some lows. Let's hope that despite the delays this mission is a great success.