Author Topic: SpaceX COTS Demo 2/3 Updates (THREAD 2) (Read 787827 times)

Space Pete · « **Reply #60 on:** 09/13/2011 04:38 pm »

From the BBC's Jonathan Amos (@BBCAmos) via Twitter:

Shotwell: Might have to delay Falcon/Dragon mission to ISS in Nov as the crew trained to grapple Dragon may not be on the ISS in time. Delay is a consequence of the recent Soyuz failure and the time it will take to get it flying again, and rotate ISS crews. #WSBW

Jason Davies · « **Reply #61 on:** 09/13/2011 04:42 pm »

Didn't that get pre-empted by someone called Pete Harding on that NSF site?

Space Pete · « **Reply #62 on:** 09/13/2011 05:02 pm »

Quote from: Jason Davies on 09/13/2011 04:42 pm

Didn't that get pre-empted by someone called Pete Harding on that NSF site?

Heh, I didn't pre-empt it - our fantastic L2 sources did. I just wrote it up.

Prior to the Progress M-12M crash, the six-person Expedition 30 crew - consisting of three Russians, two Americans, and one European - would have been on the ISS for Dragon's arrival on 9th December. This meant that the two required USOS crewmembers (Dan Burbank & Don Pettit) would have been available to capture Dragon with the SSRMS.

Today's new Russian flight schedule shows that the three-person Expedition 29 crew - consisting of two Russians and one American - will be on ISS on 9th December. Mike Suffredini has previously said that the Dragon capture could be performed with a three-person crew by training one of the Russian crewmembers to assist the USOS crewmember with the capture.

So, why the possible Dragon delay if the capture can be performed with three crewmembers? Well, prior to performing the capture, Dan Burbank was to have conducted over two months of On-Board Training (OBT) in capture operations. However, the new schedule means that Burbank will have only ~three weeks to conduct the OBT, at a time that he will be extremely busy with other things due to the short handover window with the departing Expedition 28 crew.

So, I imagine this is where the concerns are coming from - if Dragon is delayed, it will allow time for two USOS crewmembers to fully train. If the current Dragon schedule holds, then one USOS and one Russian crewmember will have to conduct additional training (due to the addition of the untrained Russian crewmember) in a shorter period of time.

Antares · « **Reply #63 on:** 09/13/2011 05:20 pm »

Quote from: Space Pete on 09/13/2011 04:38 pm

Shotwell: Might have to delay Falcon/Dragon mission to ISS in Nov as the crew trained to grapple Dragon may not be on the ISS in time. Delay is a consequence of the recent Soyuz failure and the time it will take to get it flying again, and rotate ISS crews. #WSBW

Even odds this is Gwynne pawning off SpaceX delays on NASA. Groan. It's no different than any other government contractor, space or not.

Downix · « **Reply #64 on:** 09/13/2011 05:23 pm »

Random thought, could the COTS demo be modified slightly to add enough life support and a few seats, to serve as a lifeboat in order to extend a token crew on the ISS for the time needed to get Soyuz flying again?

Antares · « **Reply #65 on:** 09/13/2011 05:31 pm »

Massive amounts of requirements would have to be written and verified. It would never happen.

baldusi · « **Reply #66 on:** 09/13/2011 05:44 pm »

I've read nothing about the two consecutive software upgrades necessaries to actually enable the SSRMS to grapple and berth the Dragon. Could this be one of the issues? If I'm not mistaken they were supposed to fly the first upgrade on the failed Progress. Of course SpaceX must have their own late deliveries.

Lars_J · « **Reply #67 on:** 09/13/2011 05:49 pm »

I would assume software upgrades are sent/uploaded directly to ISS. Not physically on a Progress.

But you are right, we have not heard anything about the ISS software issues related to Dragon grapple recently.

go4mars · « **Reply #68 on:** 09/13/2011 07:38 pm »

Quote from: Antares on 09/13/2011 05:20 pm

Quote from: Space Pete on 09/13/2011 04:38 pm
Shotwell: Might have to delay Falcon/Dragon mission to ISS in Nov as the crew trained to grapple Dragon may not be on the ISS in time. Delay is a consequence of the recent Soyuz failure and the time it will take to get it flying again, and rotate ISS crews. #WSBW

Even odds this is Gwynne pawning off SpaceX delays on NASA. Groan. It's no different than any other government contractor, space or not.

There might be some fault from both sides (unproven). If so, it's handy that the government and NASA have broad shoulders and a lower expectations bar.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #69 on:** 09/13/2011 07:41 pm »

Quote from: Downix on 09/13/2011 05:23 pm

Random thought, could the COTS demo be modified slightly to add enough life support and a few seats, to serve as a lifeboat in order to extend a token crew on the ISS for the time needed to get Soyuz flying again?

We already have discussed this at length. Primarily, the CRS/COTS vehicles berth, not dock, so CRS/COTS Dragon can't work as a fully functional lifeboat, since unberthing requires Station power.

Chandonn · « **Reply #70 on:** 09/13/2011 08:07 pm »

Quote from: Lars_J on 09/13/2011 05:49 pm

I would assume software upgrades are sent/uploaded directly to ISS. Not physically on a Progress...

Okay, so now I have an image in my head of a Cosmonaut frantically searching the Progress for those floppy discs containing the software upgrade...

ugordan · « **Reply #71 on:** 09/13/2011 08:17 pm »

So to sum this up we have 3 different potential delay mechanisms at work:

1) ISS software delays
2) Soyuz failure moving everything to the right
3) SpaceX own development delays

Did I get that right?

baldusi · « **Reply #72 on:** 09/13/2011 08:28 pm »

Quote from: Chandonn on 09/13/2011 08:07 pm

Quote from: Lars_J on 09/13/2011 05:49 pm
I would assume software upgrades are sent/uploaded directly to ISS. Not physically on a Progress...

Okay, so now I have an image in my head of a Cosmonaut frantically searching the Progress for those floppy discs containing the software upgrade...

I still remember something about it carrying the software upgrade, since it surprised me quite a bit.

From here

Quote

The flight manifest lists 257 cargo items for delivery to the ISS, including 161 Russian items (143 logistics cargo items, including Russian FCE for US crew [15 items] and Russian ECLSS equipment [20 items]), 18 cargo items for 13 experiments [Tipologiya, Poligen, Matryoshka-R, Kaskad, Konyugatsiya, BIF, Aril, Membrana, Aseptik, Vynoslivost, Test, OChB, and Plazmennyi Kristall-3 Plus]), and 86 International Partner's cargo items (71 NASA logistics cargo items, including limited-life and consumable items for USOS systems and provisions for Russian and US crewmembers [of these, 24 items belong to transit cargo, and 47 items may have been used on the ISS RS (Russian Segment)], 14 cargo items for 6 US experiments for conducting on the USOS, and one cargo item for a European experiment to be conducted on the USOS). The most critical loss was a number of Russian laptops loaded with new software (Vers. 8.05).

The bold is mine. So, the software upgrade might be an issue. I always assumed they could upload it. But they stated that it was a critical issue.

Lars_J · « **Reply #73 on:** 09/13/2011 08:32 pm »

Russian laptops are not used in the berthing process.

Space Pete · « **Reply #74 on:** 09/13/2011 08:34 pm »

Quote from: baldusi on 09/13/2011 08:28 pm

The most critical loss was a number of Russian laptops loaded with new software (Vers. 8.05).

The bold is mine. So, the software upgrade might be an issue. I always assumed they could upload it. But they stated that it was a critical issue.

That relates to Service Module (SM) vers. 8.05, and is not related to the Dragon berthing.

baldusi · « **Reply #75 on:** 09/13/2011 08:47 pm »

Quote from: Space Pete on 09/13/2011 08:34 pm

Quote from: baldusi on 09/13/2011 08:28 pm
The most critical loss was a number of Russian laptops loaded with new software (Vers. 8.05).

The bold is mine. So, the software upgrade might be an issue. I always assumed they could upload it. But they stated that it was a critical issue.

That relates to Service Module (SM) vers. 8.05, and is not related to the Dragon berthing.

You are right. According to this article (is it yours?) there's the need to do the X2_R10 and X2_R11 upgrade to the ISS software, and only then the SSRMS MSS 7.1 upgrade to be able to berth the Dragon. Did I got it right?
Since this was part of Expedition 29, I understand that none of this has been performed. If the ISS has to do with a reduced crew until Soyuz TMA-03M docks, I think they will have little time to do the upgrade. Specially, in such a critical time were there's the risk of having to leave the station on remote control.

Space Pete · « **Reply #76 on:** 09/13/2011 10:11 pm »

Quote from: baldusi on 09/13/2011 08:47 pm

Quote from: Space Pete on 09/13/2011 08:34 pm
Quote from: baldusi on 09/13/2011 08:28 pm
The most critical loss was a number of Russian laptops loaded with new software (Vers. 8.05).

The bold is mine. So, the software upgrade might be an issue. I always assumed they could upload it. But they stated that it was a critical issue.

That relates to Service Module (SM) vers. 8.05, and is not related to the Dragon berthing.
You are right. According to this article (is it yours?) there's the need to do the X2_R10 and X2_R11 upgrade to the ISS software, and only then the SSRMS MSS 7.1 upgrade to be able to berth the Dragon. Did I got it right?
Since this was part of Expedition 29, I understand that none of this has been performed. If the ISS has to do with a reduced crew until Soyuz TMA-03M docks, I think they will have little time to do the upgrade. Specially, in such a critical time were there's the risk of having to leave the station on remote control.

Yup, that is my article, and you are correct.

Downix · « **Reply #77 on:** 09/13/2011 10:43 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/13/2011 07:41 pm

Quote from: Downix on 09/13/2011 05:23 pm
Random thought, could the COTS demo be modified slightly to add enough life support and a few seats, to serve as a lifeboat in order to extend a token crew on the ISS for the time needed to get Soyuz flying again?
We already have discussed this at length. Primarily, the CRS/COTS vehicles berth, not dock, so CRS/COTS Dragon can't work as a fully functional lifeboat, since unberthing requires Station power.

Thank you, I had not seen those threads.

Prober · « **Reply #78 on:** 09/13/2011 11:29 pm »

Quote from: Downix on 09/13/2011 05:23 pm

Random thought, could the COTS demo be modified slightly to add enough life support and a few seats, to serve as a lifeboat in order to extend a token crew on the ISS for the time needed to get Soyuz flying again?

interesting idea but don't believe they are that close to being ready.

How about this, SpaceX launches regardless. Can launch those two payloads and work on Cots 2 goals etc. Do as many Cots 2 or 3 that can be done.

Ronsmytheiii · « **Reply #79 on:** 09/14/2011 12:13 am »

Quote from: Prober on 09/13/2011 11:29 pm

Quote from: Downix on 09/13/2011 05:23 pm
Random thought, could the COTS demo be modified slightly to add enough life support and a few seats, to serve as a lifeboat in order to extend a token crew on the ISS for the time needed to get Soyuz flying again?

interesting idea but don't believe they are that close to being ready.

How about this, SpaceX launches regardless. Can launch those two payloads and work on Cots 2 goals etc. Do as many Cots 2 or 3 that can be done.

Cots 3 cannot be accomplished without berthing, that is the goal. SpaceX is being wise to wait for the crew, no use wasting a spacecraft on an incomplete mission.