SpaceX COTS Demo 2/3 Updates (THREAD 2)

[tigerade]

February 2012 boohoo. Guess I will have an oppertunity to divert my auxiliary focus elsewhere for a while.

So this makes for how many Falcon 9 launches in 2011?

Zip, zero, zilch, nada

Not a single SpaceX flight in 2011.  Who knew that the flight rate would get slower, not faster.

[krytek]

They don't look too alarmed by this either. Got their hands full as it is maybe?

[Ronsmytheiii]

They don't look too alarmed by this either. Got their hands full as it is maybe?

Well they are still getting COTS milestone delivery payments, as well as the new CCDev funds, so the fiscal state is fine.  As for public relations, well its easy to blame the Russians and get away with it now....

[AlexCam]

February 2012 boohoo. Guess I will have an oppertunity to divert my auxiliary focus elsewhere for a while.

So this makes for how many Falcon 9 launches in 2011?

Zip, zero, zilch, nada

Not a single SpaceX flight in 2011.  Who knew that the flight rate would get slower, not faster.

The flight rate has fluctuated since 2006, but on average has been pretty constant at about 1 flight every 12 months, with several anomalies in between, most notably between flights 3 and 4.

March 2006 - F1
March 2007 - F1 - 12 months
August 2008 - F1 - 18 months
September 2008 - F1 - 2 months
July 2009 - F1 - 10 months
June 2010 - F9 - 11 months
December 2010 - F9 - 6 months
February 2011* - F9 - 14 months

[Diagoras]

February 2012 boohoo. Guess I will have an oppertunity to divert my auxiliary focus elsewhere for a while.

So this makes for how many Falcon 9 launches in 2011?

Zip, zero, zilch, nada

Not a single SpaceX flight in 2011.  Who knew that the flight rate would get slower, not faster.

"Well, Mrs. Jones, it's your first trimester and you have a beautiful baby boy in you. At this rate, in a year you'll have four inside of you!"

[balan h20]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

[ugordan]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not.

Rrrrrright...

[Jim]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

Wrong, There is no Dragon ready at this time.
Also,they  can launch without the gov.  They don't need to go to the ISS to prove the system.  They can do COTS 2.

[SpacexULA]

Would this delay on the launch end of the SpaceX business effect their production rate?

Before this announcement Dragon was to be shipped out to the Cape this month, are they likely now to keep Dragon in California in a clean room till some time in January?

Given that COTS 2/3 was to be a precursor to CRS 1 to prove out design, is SpaceX likely to slow walk the production of the other capsule/stages/engines, or take this opportunity to allow production to "catch up" to launch?

Pure greed on this question, is there any possibility we will see 2 Dragons and Falcon 9 in the current hanger?  Thought I remembered them saying 3 Falcon 9 could be worked out of that building, is that a possibility or just PR talk?

[krytek]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

Wrong, There is no Dragon ready at this time.
Also,they  can launch without the gov.  They don't need to go to the ISS to prove the system.  They can do COTS 2.

False. They have to have permission to approach the ISS, they must have trained astronaut participation in comm tests with ISS, same thing with NASA ground personnel.

Anyway, sometimes just waiting a few out is better.

[HIP2BSQRE]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

Wrong, There is no Dragon ready at this time.
Also,they  can launch without the gov.  They don't need to go to the ISS to prove the system.  They can do COTS 2.

Yes SpaceX could do COST2 now.  But what is their incentive???  Very little.  It would cost them over $50 million for the launch when they can launch in a few months and possibly do COTS 2/3.  I would wait. 

[Jim]

False. They have to have permission to approach the ISS, they must have trained astronaut participation in comm tests with ISS, same thing with NASA ground personnel.

Anyway, sometimes just waiting a few out is better.

Wrong.  COTS 2 objectives do not require approach to  ISS.   Spacex could fly this on their own.  They are the ones wanting to combined COTS 2 &3, so it is their delay, not NASA's.

Know a little more before trying to correct people

[yg1968]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

Wrong, There is no Dragon ready at this time.
Also,they  can launch without the gov.  They don't need to go to the ISS to prove the system.  They can do COTS 2.

Yes SpaceX could do COST2 now.  But what is their incentive???  Very little.  It would cost them over $50 million for the launch when they can launch in a few months and possibly do COTS 2/3.  I would wait. 

I agree. Why should SpaceX waste $50 million on COTS2. Orbital doesn't have a mission equivalent to COTS 2 planned; so why should SpaceX have one. SpaceX' priorities at this point should be COTS 2/3 and the CRS 1 flight.

[cambrianera]

Objectives of COTS 2 were:
Dragon would approach within 10 kilometers of the space station and exercise its radio cross-link to demonstrate the ability of the station’s crew to receive telemetry from the capsule and send commands.
(incidentally from http://www.spacenews.com/venture_space/100611-spacex-drop-dragon-flight.html)

I can't see the way SPACEX flying this on their own.

About Dragon being not ready I don't know, may be. But I think is fair for them to be a little unhappy for the ISS situation; everybody is!

[Lurker Steve]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

Wrong, There is no Dragon ready at this time.
Also,they  can launch without the gov.  They don't need to go to the ISS to prove the system.  They can do COTS 2.

Yes SpaceX could do COST2 now.  But what is their incentive???  Very little.  It would cost them over $50 million for the launch when they can launch in a few months and possibly do COTS 2/3.  I would wait. 

I agree. Why should SpaceX waste $50 million on COTS2. Orbital doesn't have a mission equivalent to COTS 2 planned; so why should SpaceX have one. SpaceX' priorities at this point should be COTS 2/3 and the CRS 1 flight.

Orbital's contract has nothing to do this the SpaceX contract.

The original SpaceX COTS contract called for 3 separate launches, with tasks and milestones that were to be accomplished on each launch. It is SpaceX that wanted to modify their original contract (in order to reduce their costs), not NASA. NASA has already modified the contract once to add additional milestones and payments. This was supposed to reduce program risk, and bring the dates to the left. Were those extra milestones and payments effective ? NASA is unconcerned about the cost to SpaceX for accomplishing their milestones. This is not a COST-plus contract after all.

[robertross]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not. They could launch this Nov but they have to have two people on board the ISS not one. Could they do the operation with one. The russian malfunction put the schedule in a trash can. Is the flight rate a Space X problem or a Government Red Tape Snafu. Is this not the case with all Gov OPerations they get delayed and delayed because of the tape and oversite that weighs them down and usualy puts more of a price tag on them.

Wrong, There is no Dragon ready at this time.
Also,they  can launch without the gov.  They don't need to go to the ISS to prove the system.  They can do COTS 2.

Yes SpaceX could do COST2 now.  But what is their incentive???  Very little.  It would cost them over $50 million for the launch when they can launch in a few months and possibly do COTS 2/3.  I would wait. 

I agree. Why should SpaceX waste $50 million on COTS2. Orbital doesn't have a mission equivalent to COTS 2 planned; so why should SpaceX have one. SpaceX' priorities at this point should be COTS 2/3 and the CRS 1 flight.

Unless they encounter a problem, which pushes back a future (and separate) COTS3 even further, and this could have been productive time.
That's their trade for risk/benefit.

I'm not suggesting either way. One could see this as an opportunity, although costly.

[Jason1701]

Would this delay on the launch end of the SpaceX business effect their production rate?

Before this announcement Dragon was to be shipped out to the Cape this month, are they likely now to keep Dragon in California in a clean room till some time in January?

Given that COTS 2/3 was to be a precursor to CRS 1 to prove out design, is SpaceX likely to slow walk the production of the other capsule/stages/engines, or take this opportunity to allow production to "catch up" to launch?

Pure greed on this question, is there any possibility we will see 2 Dragons and Falcon 9 in the current hanger?  Thought I remembered them saying 3 Falcon 9 could be worked out of that building, is that a possibility or just PR talk?

Video tours of the HIF show that there's not room for any more full-size rockets in there. What SpaceX might have meant is that they'll have room for three F9s at the Cape as a whole, including the former DMCO.

[mmeijeri]

How much would SpaceX get paid for COTS 2?

[Jason1701]

How much would SpaceX get paid for COTS 2?

The SAA milestone for Mission 2 pays $6.133M. The bulk of the funding for the mission comes from reviews and tests before the flight.

[notsorandom]

But the flight rate is mainly because they have to wait on NASA and all the red tape is it not.

Rrrrrright...

SpaceX has non-NASA customers on the manifest for 2011. Unless there was a delay in those satellites being ready SpaceX could have launched this year. Hmm this is likely a little off topic for this thread but anyone know if the fairing for the Falcon 9 is ready? Last I heard they were still working the bugs and kinks out of it.