SpaceX COTS Demo 2/3 Updates (THREAD 2)

[Prober]

Well let's face the facts, this has not saved money, or given us a working system in less time.   Someone in charge needs to make this call, and get it done.

Look what happened with Orbital, they had engine issues and a flight test was added.  Should SpaceX be treated any different?

SpaceX already paid for a flight test of the launcher.  Adding a COTS 3 doesn't mean COTS 2 would have happened any sooner. 

One successful flight in 2010 doesn't a system make.  The history shows that had the COTS2 gone as planned, SpaceX would have had more "real" flight data than they have to show now.

Flying COTS-2 still required a cleared approach to the ISS with trained operators on board.  It may also have required that the SSARMS software be updated.  It is not clear that these conditions could have been met earlier, or even now.  It sounds like a issues discovered in a joint development process.  Neither party can get that far ahead of the other. 

My hope is that everyone will go back to what was said a year ago in this thread and learn from it.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23538.0

[Lurker Steve]

Well let's face the facts, this has not saved money, or given us a working system in less time.   Someone in charge needs to make this call, and get it done.

Look what happened with Orbital, they had engine issues and a flight test was added.  Should SpaceX be treated any different?

SpaceX already paid for a flight test of the launcher.  Adding a COTS 3 doesn't mean COTS 2 would have happened any sooner. 

One successful flight in 2010 doesn't a system make.  The history shows that had the COTS2 gone as planned, SpaceX would have had more "real" flight data than they have to show now.

Flying COTS-2 still required a cleared approach to the ISS with trained operators on board.  It may also have required that the SSARMS software be updated.  It is not clear that these conditions could have been met earlier, or even now.  It sounds like a issues discovered in a joint development process.  Neither party can get that far ahead of the other. 

My hope is that everyone will go back to what was said a year ago in this thread and learn from it.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23538.0

yes, the sad thing is there are over 150 pages of posts related to a launch that probably won't happen for another 3 or 4 months. What is the record for posts on a single topic ?

[rdale]

yes, the sad thing is there are over 150 pages of posts related to a launch that probably won't happen for another 3 or 4 months. What is the record for posts on a single topic ?

It's sad that there is interest in a new launch?

You do realize what forum you're in, right?

[jedsmd]

Suffredini said SpaceX is closing out a range of technical issues with its Dragon spacecraft, including electromagnetic interference, propellant tank insulation, engine delamination and software adjustments.
 

What do they mean by "engine delamination"?

My guess -- Draco nozzle issue with long-term exposure to hard vacuum that didn't exhibit on COTS-1 due to the short time involved. Any takers?

The Draco engine is all metal.  Not sure what this means, unless it is grabbled and refers to spallation of silicide-like coatings or equivalent on the refractory metal nozzle.

Appears the problem is with the Merlin:

Technicians will also conduct precautionary inspections looking for delamination in the Falcon 9 rocket's kerosene-fueled Merlin engines,

http://spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/003/120203update/

[Robotbeat]

Suffredini said SpaceX is closing out a range of technical issues with its Dragon spacecraft, including electromagnetic interference, propellant tank insulation, engine delamination and software adjustments.
 

What do they mean by "engine delamination"?

My guess -- Draco nozzle issue with long-term exposure to hard vacuum that didn't exhibit on COTS-1 due to the short time involved. Any takers?

The Draco engine is all metal.  Not sure what this means, unless it is grabbled and refers to spallation of silicide-like coatings or equivalent on the refractory metal nozzle.

Appears the problem is with the Merlin:

Technicians will also conduct precautionary inspections looking for delamination in the Falcon 9 rocket's kerosene-fueled Merlin engines,

http://spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/003/120203update/

Okay, that makes a lot more sense.

It does seem like they've discovered lots of issues, here. April is essentially the "no earlier than" date, now (according to Elon). Better to find them now on the ground than have a failure or abort during the mission.

[FinalFrontier]

NET of april seems reasonable.


I would expect they might make that. If not it will be early June.


Either way I don't think we're at risk of not seeing this mission fly this year, and the delay, IMO, was not something to be surprised about.

Its a brand new rocket, a brand new spacecraft, and its the first time its going to the station. You can't expect not to have problems, that they are largely software related is the interesting part, where as I would have expected more hardware problems.

 

[RocketJack]

NET of april seems reasonable.


I would expect they might make that. If not it will be early June.


Either way I don't think we're at risk of not seeing this mission fly this year, and the delay, IMO, was not something to be surprised about.

Its a brand new rocket, a brand new spacecraft, and its the first time its going to the station. You can't expect not to have problems, that they are largely software related is the interesting part, where as I would have expected more hardware problems.

 

I thought they were ready in November but NASA was holding them back because of the Russian Progress delay?  (Ok, too snarky)

[AnalogMan]

yes, the sad thing is there are over 150 pages of posts related to a launch that probably won't happen for another 3 or 4 months. What is the record for posts on a single topic ?

DIRECT discussion thread (split into 9 succesive parts):
30,119 replies   3,430,675 views   20.8 replies/day

This thread:
1208 replies   191,513 views   6.4 replies/day

[spacetraveler]

NET of april seems reasonable.


I would expect they might make that. If not it will be early June.


Either way I don't think we're at risk of not seeing this mission fly this year, and the delay, IMO, was not something to be surprised about.

Its a brand new rocket, a brand new spacecraft, and its the first time its going to the station. You can't expect not to have problems, that they are largely software related is the interesting part, where as I would have expected more hardware problems.

As a software developer myself, it doesn't surprise me at all that software is the hangup, given the already demonstrated success of the hardware of both Falcon 9 and Dragon on previous missions.

Software has been a huge issue for NASA in the past as well (Mars Polar Lander).

Software for control systems like this has to be triple checked for everything. One stray oversight and you can throw an unexpected error that ends the whole mission.

[cuddihy]

Its a brand new rocket, a brand new spacecraft, and its the first time its going to the station. You can't expect not to have problems, that they are largely software related is the interesting part, where as I would have expected more hardware problems.

- F9 is now over 2 years old
- COTS 2/3 is only a brand new spacecraft because SpaceX chose to launch a less than half-functional to the point of being dissimilar Dragon to meet the COTS 1 milestone.
- software is usually the long pole in the tent. It is NEVER done early.

- what you are now seeing is the meeting of NuSpace rhetoric with the reality of how Old Space works.

I think at this point it is apparent that the theory of "build a little, test a little" as pushed by many NuSpace advocates and "recovering aerospace engineer" types just doesn't apply to orbital space flight.

If SpaceX had spent the time to design a fully CRS-ready Dragon from the get-go they probably could have launched COTS 1,2&3 in rapid succession starting last year. Either way it is clear as of early 2012 that the dreams of 2008 of having 12 flights a year of F9 and 4-5 CRS flights are just that, dreams. Meanwhile it has also become apparent (in the ALAS thread) that the CRS Dragons are not actually upgradeable or modifiable as has been intimated to a Crew Dragon, but that that will be basically a new spacecraft...well this is going OT for COTS so that's all I'm going to say.

[corrodedNut]

From the SFN article:

"...workers will apply high-emissivity paint to meet thermal constraints on the Dragon's propellant tanks."

Did we decide what color "high-emissivity paint" is? Black? Which would make sense since the service-section area is already painted white. Can we deduce that SpaceX is concerned the propellent would get too cold, or perhaps even freeze?

[mr. mark]

"SpaceX is planning a countdown dress rehearsal in mid-February, during which the Falcon 9 launch team will roll the two-stage booster to the launch pad and fill it with kerosene and liquid oxygen propellants.

Workers will attach the Dragon spacecraft to the rocket before the practice countdown, then remove the capsule for fueling with toxic manuevering propellant, final checks and cargo loading before liftoff".

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/003/120203update/

It should make for a good photo op as well. Can't wait to finally see the completed capsule, trunk combination finally on the Falcon 9 rocket.

[deltaV]

- software is usually the long pole in the tent. It is NEVER done early.

If software were ever done early then the hardware would probably change after the software was done and hence the software would instantly become not done anymore.

[Robotbeat]

From the SFN article:

"...workers will apply high-emissivity paint to meet thermal constraints on the Dragon's propellant tanks."

Did we decide what color "high-emissivity paint" is? Black? Which would make sense since the service-section area is already painted white. Can we deduce that SpaceX is concerned the propellent would get too cold, or perhaps even freeze?

High-emissivity in this case refers to (thermal) infrared, not visible. As we mentioned earlier, something can well be white in the visible and "black" in thermal infrared.

[Comga]

From the SFN article:

"...workers will apply high-emissivity paint to meet thermal constraints on the Dragon's propellant tanks."

Did we decide what color "high-emissivity paint" is? Black? Which would make sense since the service-section area is already painted white. Can we deduce that SpaceX is concerned the propellent would get too cold, or perhaps even freeze?

High-emissivity in this case refers to (thermal) infrared, not visible. As we mentioned earlier, something can well be white in the visible and "black" in thermal infrared.

Correct, so there may be no change in the appearance of Dragon.

[Garrett]

Came across this tweet by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) that you wouldn't see if you were simply following him because the tweet was a reply to somebody else:

Feb 4th
@MacDeviant Yeah, we will stream the whole mission realtime with no buffer. You see what we see.

Link to the original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/165898145841168385

So I think that answers some of the questions that were asked about SpaceX's plans for live streaming. (unless this has already been previously clarified?)

Edit: added date of tweet

[apace]

Came across this tweet by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) that you wouldn't see if you were simply following him because the tweet was a reply to somebody else:

Feb 4th
@MacDeviant Yeah, we will stream the whole mission realtime with no buffer. You see what we see.

Link to the original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/165898145841168385

So I think that answers some of the questions that were asked about SpaceX's plans for live streaming. (unless this has already been previously clarified?)

Edit: added date of tweet

Good news, perhaps they make some sort of live show for this event. The guy behind spacevidcast.com works for SpaceX since this autumn.

[manboy]

Came across this tweet by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) that you wouldn't see if you were simply following him because the tweet was a reply to somebody else:

Feb 4th
@MacDeviant Yeah, we will stream the whole mission realtime with no buffer. You see what we see.

Link to the original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/165898145841168385
Edit: added date of tweet

Woopie!

[Ben the Space Brit]

Came across this tweet by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) that you wouldn't see if you were simply following him because the tweet was a reply to somebody else:

Feb 4th
@MacDeviant Yeah, we will stream the whole mission realtime with no buffer. You see what we see.

Link to the original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/165898145841168385

So I think that answers some of the questions that were asked about SpaceX's plans for live streaming. (unless this has already been previously clarified?)

Edit: added date of tweet

A gutsy decision; if Dragon C2/3 blows up in their face so will the live streaming decision.  That they're taking this risk implies a high degree of confidence in their hardware.

[woods170]

Came across this tweet by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) that you wouldn't see if you were simply following him because the tweet was a reply to somebody else:

Feb 4th
@MacDeviant Yeah, we will stream the whole mission realtime with no buffer. You see what we see.

Link to the original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/165898145841168385

So I think that answers some of the questions that were asked about SpaceX's plans for live streaming. (unless this has already been previously clarified?)

Edit: added date of tweet

A gutsy decision; if Dragon C2/3 blows up in their face so will the live streaming decision.  That they're taking this risk implies a high degree of confidence in their hardware.

I don't see how this would be any different from C1. They streamed large parts of that live as well. C1 could have blown up in their face just as well.