What is your thought on private space flight.

[nec207]

Do you think private space flight is going to start to take up people and cargo into space in one year from now or 2 years from now?

Do you think in a year or 2 from now that NASA can use private space flight to get into space than using the Russians?

From what I understand ( reading here ) Virgin Galactic and SpaceX is in service now . Where Dream Chaser ,Blue Origin,New Shepard is other 2 to 3 years out.

[pathfinder_01]

Cargo late this year or early next.
People depends 2015 is probably the best year. Space X is aiming for 2013, but I will bet they will take until 2015. Boeing and Dream Chaser are both aiming for this year too.

[Jorge]

Do you think private space flight is going to start to take up people and cargo into space in one year from now or 2 years from now?

Do you think in a year or 2 from now that NASA can use private space flight to get into space than using the Russians?

No. Minimum 3, more likely 4.

From what I understand ( reading here ) Virgin Galactic

Suborbital only, not even doing powered tests yet.

and SpaceX is in service now .

SpaceX will not fly to ISS until November at the earliest, and even then, unmanned.

Where Dream Chaser ,Blue Origin,New Shepard is other 2 to 3 years out.

3 to 4.

[manboy]

Space X is aiming for 2013

I believe they said three years after getting a contract, so 2014-ish.

[Norm Hartnett]

I was cautiously optimistic up until a month or so ago. Now I believe that NASA will return the CCP to a familiar contract based program and that we will see the "commercial" AtlasV/CST-100 flying manned missions in late 2016.

I believe that we will see SpaceX flying cargo missions next year but otherwise nada.

[happyflower]

Do you think private space flight is going to start to take up people and cargo into space in one year from now or 2 years from now?

Do you think in a year or 2 from now that NASA can use private space flight to get into space than using the Russians?

From what I understand ( reading here ) Virgin Galactic and SpaceX is in service now . Where Dream Chaser ,Blue Origin,New Shepard is other 2 to 3 years out.

Of course cargo will be taken up in one year.

For humans the issue is not technical, but lacking a goal in space. I think your question will be better asked this way: Why do you think people need to go up into space?

NASA has to be a mother bird and take private space firms under its wing and nurse them with a manly job that they can perform and make money in. With out NASA private space firms will take a great deal of time going to space, not because they cant, but because they wouldn’t have a reason to go.

If all the new buzz about paving a highway to deep space along gas stations in space come true, then NASA could be doing some stuff in L1 within 2 years that will require private space firms to take humans there.

[nec207]

I hear the European Space Agency is planning on working on human space flight by 2015 or 2020 .Is that true and are they building space craft to take people up into space by 2015 or 2020 ? If so could NASA not use the European Space Agency to get into space than having to go to Russia to get into space.

This is if private space flight does not work with NASA.

[Moe Grills]

  Several things come to mind.
Setting dates for launch attempts for private firms is
a tricky business. Money, government and engineering obstacles
make setting dates difficult to say the least.
UP Aerospace is already busy launching suborbital payloads for pay.
Even as you read this, Virgin Galactic's SS2 is being fitted out with a rocket motor. I expect first powered test flight in October, but I could easily be wrong.
   Yes, Virgin, SpaceX, XCOR are serious contenders who are near
the point where they can say we're open for business in a year or two.
(They have the money to back them up)
Armadillo, Masten & Blue Origin have had setbacks, or are finding their goals more an more difficult to achieve.

  I don't see International Launch Services, nor
Excalibur Almaz, etc. achieving much, except hype.

 Then there are issues such as: will commercial spaceflight become routine and affordable (10,000-20,000 dollars per suborbital passenger)?
  I don't think suborbital spaceflights will ever become economical enough for passenger tickets to drop lower than 50,000 dollars per seat.
And commercial suborbital manned spaceflight will NEVER become routine, even if launches take place every day (websites like this will cover
every manned space-launch; spacetravel will never become routine the way that commercial aircraft flights have).
 

[go4mars]

  Setting dates for launch attempts for private firms is
a tricky business.    Yes, Virgin, SpaceX, XCOR are serious contenders who are near
the point where they can say we're open for business in a year or two.

Though I've only been a serious spectator for the last 5-7 years, it seems that in nearly all cases, 'such n such' "will be ready in about 2 years".  That appears to be the standard timeframe (which is subsequently readjusted now and then to read "will be ready in about 2 years"). 

If you convert to tortoise years it comes out about right. 

[grr]

CST-100, Dream Chaser, and new shepard are to launch on a proven rocket, Atlas V, that is currently being modified for human launch.   There is little reason to doubt that Atlas V will be ready.

DC claims that they will be ready around early 2014. They are based on the H20, which was based on a proven russian design. There is little reason to believe that they will not be ready by end of 2014. They have limited private funding, so it is difficult to judge what will happen if NASA quits funding.

Boeing has years of experience building Aeronautics and Space vehicles. In addition, they have the financial backing, though, there is questions if NASA is told to quit funding private space. That will then depend on how close and what bigelow is up to.
There is little reason to believe that they will not finish this barring the money.

Blue Origin is quiet about what they are up to so difficult to judge when they will be ready. However, out of everybody, they have the private funding.  So, my bet is that they will be ready by end of 2014.


Finally you have SpaceX. They have F9 which is now 2 for 2 and going for 3.
Likewise, the dragon which has made done 1 launch/landing, is about to do so again in a few short months.
The dragon was built to handle human launches. What is interesting is that they have the seats, the life support, and even the avionics tested for this. All that is missing is escape tower. Assuming that cargo works a couple of times, it could be put into use as a lifeboat quickly. In addition, in a pinch,  a dragon can be used to put humans up to space without an escape system (which mercury, gemini, apollo 1, and shuttle went without). Considering that they actually have funding and can get more,  AND are looking at IPO, AND the cargo missions are the same as humans, it is hard to believe that they will not be ready by end of 2014.


So, it should be obvious to nearly all that the US will regain human launch by end of 2014 and possibly by end of 2013.

Personally, I think that you asked the wrong question.

I would be a bit more interested to see how 4 of these companies are going to survive? At this time, the assumption is that Bigelow will be there. What happens if Bigelow does not go? Then the human launch industry WILL collapse.  Then the question becomes who will survive?

I really am amazed that NASA and amazing people are not saying more about getting private space stations up there ASAP. Ideally, it should be bigelow and another such as IDC Dover. But at the least, it seems like NASA either buying a BA unit to attach to the ISS, or perhaps one to use for a human taxi between stations would make good sense. A BA unit with a tug to move between stations would make a lot of sense. In fact, more sense than having shore to ship lifeboats. With one to several units up there, we could move ppl from one station to the next in an emergency.

[Lars_J]

...a dragon can be used to put humans up to space without an escape system (which mercury, gemini, apollo 1, and shuttle went without).

A correction for you - Mercury and Apollo had escape systems. Gemini and the first four Shuttle flights had ejection seats. (I'm not sure how much practical benefit the ejection seats contributed, but better than nothing)

I'm not sure what you mean about Apollo 1, though.

[baddux]

Though I've only been a serious spectator for the last 5-7 years, it seems that in nearly all cases, 'such n such' "will be ready in about 2 years".  That appears to be the standard timeframe (which is subsequently readjusted now and then to read "will be ready in about 2 years"). 

If you convert to tortoise years it comes out about right. 

Exactly, at least for Virgin:

http://www.popsci.com/military-aviation-space/article/2004-12/sale-soon-plane-rides-nowhere
"Start saving: The maiden ship, the VSS Enterprise, is slated to take off in 2007." (2004)

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2005/12/20/203671/virgin-space-base-plan-allows-for-bigger-ships-in-future.html
"First flights for Virgin Galactic’s suborbital service, expected to take place in late 2008" (2005)

http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2006-07-17-virgin-spaceflight_x.htm
"Virgin Group, owned by billionaire businessman and part-time daredevil Richard Branson, said Monday it was on track to launch the world's first tourist space flights in 2008" (2006)

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2007-05-07-space-tourist_N.htm
"It hopes to start offering the flights in 2009." (2007)

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/25/virgin_galatic_unveil_mothership/
"Virgin Galactic has not yet set a date for when passengers will get a ride, but expects the earliest flights could be late 2009 or early 2010." (2008)

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2009-12-07-virgin-galactic_N.htm
"A spacecraft designed to rocket wealthy tourists into space as early as 2011 was unveiled Monday" (2009)

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/10/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-makes-first-glide-flight/
"Virgin Galactic boss Sir Richard Branson recently announced he expects the first passenger flights to suborbital space in SpaceShipTwo to happen within the next 18 months." (2010)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/31/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo_n_842923.html#s259756
"The spacecraft, which was debuted in front of crowds last summer, hopes to be taking six tourists at time into space by 2013." (2011)

I kind of hope that XCOR or Armadillo gets there first.

I guess and hope that commercial suborbital and orbital crewed flight will take place before the end of year 2015, but not much before.

[Robotbeat]

Virgin had a lethal accident that set them back quite significantly. But keep in mind that they actually HAVE gone to space, three times actually.

I like XCOR's approach. "It'll be ready when it's ready."

I also think they'll end up getting lower prices because they don't have the complexity of a carrier craft and can just gas-and-go (allows them to do multiple flights in a day per vehicle). Think about the ground equipment and crew needed to remove a hybrid engine and load a new one on SpaceShipTwo (likely would need to be done in a hanger), plus the need to mate SpaceShipTwo to WhiteKnightTwo, both things that are not needed for XCor's efforts. Two pilots are also needed, and a long climb to altitude. XCor's Lynx, while only having one passenger, only requires kerosene, oxygen, and pressurant (all pretty easily available all over the globe compared to hybrid motors and nitrous). No carrier vehicle needed at all. Lynx can zoom right up to space, no slow spiral to altitude wasting valuable time that could be spent flying more people to space.

Lynx's ground handling requirements are far less than SpaceShipTwo's, which increases the likelihood Lynx will keep flying for a long time.

[baddux]

Virgin had a lethal accident that set them back quite significantly. But keep in mind that they actually HAVE gone to space, three times actually.

Yeah, I believe Virgin had nothing to do with SpaceShipOne? It was funded by Paul Allen. Of course you cannot blame Scaled Composites if Branson wants to announce dates all the time to get more customers.

[Robotbeat]

Virgin had a lethal accident that set them back quite significantly. But keep in mind that they actually HAVE gone to space, three times actually.

Yeah, I believe Virgin had nothing to do with SpaceShipOne? It was funded by Paul Allen. Of course you cannot blame Scaled Composites if Branson wants to announce dates all the time to get more customers.

Right, it's easy to get that mixed up. Sorry about that! Scaled Composites is responsible for both.

[nec207]

I hear the European Space Agency is planning on working on human space flight by 2015 or 2020 .Is that true and are they building space craft to take people up into space by 2015 or 2020 ? If so could NASA not use the European Space Agency to get into space than having to go to Russia to get into space.

This is if private space flight does not work with NASA.

Anyone going to reply to the above post?

[Jim]

I hear the European Space Agency is planning on working on human space flight by 2015 or 2020 .Is that true and are they building space craft to take people up into space by 2015 or 2020 ? If so could NASA not use the European Space Agency to get into space than having to go to Russia to get into space.

This is if private space flight does not work with NASA.

Private space is going to work. 

ESA has nothing in the works that will launch in 2015

Anyone going to reply to the above post?

[pippin]

You're kidding. ESA can't even get a DECISION in four years, let alone develop and launch a capsule. And no, there is no real work being done on such a project as of now.

[Danderman]

You're kidding. ESA can't even get a DECISION in four years, let alone develop and launch a capsule. And no, there is no real work being done on such a project as of now.

It looks like someone has an opinion about private vs government space.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

For private more time means more total money spent.

For government more time means less money spent right now even though the total will be much much higher, but thats in the future so who cares.