Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)

[pathfinder_01]

Bigelow wasted money on Dnepr, Musk didn't.

I'd say Musk is now ahead.

He'll give Bigelow a helping hand now though so he doesn't have to buy that Atlas V he's been talking about.

No, Bigelow and Musk have different objectives. Bigelow wanted a test of his spacecrafts in orbit. At the time Musk could not provide that. However now that Musk has established himself it makes sense to use Falcon.

[Orbital Debris]

Technical question: Can an inflatable habitat like a BA330 be deflated to the point of relaxation of the outer surfaces, left for some time in hard radiation as if mothballed, and then re-inflated to full pressure?

There is no reason that it couldn't. It would be a matter of duration, but I don't think you would gain much by relaxation.  There was very little creep after inflation. 
The vectran is sensitive to UV, but the rest of the materials are fairly benign.  Not withstanding the Genesis exposure for about 2 years (no way to document material changes after exposure), no testing has been done involving long duration exposure to the full spectrum of space radiation. 

[Orbital Debris]

Hint: don't hold your breath.

I'm rather skeptical Bigelow will ever launch a human-habitable module, unless in the next couple years actual customers materialize who are willing to write a few hundred million dollars worth of checks.

The most realistic option is Bigelow will fly a small demo-module to ISS, maybe even small enough to fit in the trunk of Dragon (!). It'd be used to give the astronauts extra room, possible for disposal as well. Not super exciting, but still cool, IMHO.

This is much more likely to happen in the near future.  Contract is still under negotiation.

How long has the negotiations been going on?
as for the BA330 - Does Bigelow have a actual packaging and transport plan to get the module to a LV provider?

Negotiations have been going on for at least 2 years.  They finished the requirements about six months ago and have been haggling over details since.

[Orbital Debris]

Bigelow wasted money on Dnepr, Musk didn't.

I'd say Musk is now ahead.

He'll give Bigelow a helping hand now though so he doesn't have to buy that Atlas V he's been talking about.

At first glance, I wouldn't say that the money on Dnepr was wasted.  Genesis successfully proved deployment and inflation systems on orbit. Contrary to the SpaceX lovefest in the press, Bigelow was in orbit first.
On the other hand, BA has not really built on those accomplishments, and squandered the opportunity.  Therefore you may have a point. 

[Valerij]

Bigelow wasted money on Dnepr, Musk didn't.

I'd say Musk is now ahead.

He'll give Bigelow a helping hand now though so he doesn't have to buy that Atlas V he's been talking about.

No, Bigelow and Musk have different objectives. Bigelow wanted a test of his spacecrafts in orbit. At the time Musk could not provide that. However now that Musk has established himself it makes sense to use Falcon.

And where here "different objectives"? At Bigelow and Musk different firms. But these kinds of business is cumulative one for another.

Hotel Bigelow is impossible, while there is no the transport, capable to deliver clients in hotel and to return them from hotel to the Earth. SpaceX basically creates not only hotel Bigelow delivery system into an orbit. First of all Musk creates such automobile, and it already now has a delivery system of the various materials necessary for work of hotel Bigelow in an orbit.

Moreover. The ideology of business SpaceX basically differs from business of other space firms. Other firms basically try to derive the maximum profit from each flight. Therefore in their work there is no aspiration to lower cost of delivery of a payload into an orbit. Musk, on the contrary, declared the purpose to create concerning inexpensive transport. So, in due time, Henry Ford declared that its car should be rather inexpensive that many could buy it. We now well know about existence of the commercial market. Almost any person (and any state), having money, can 1) to order the "Sputnik" and 2) to order its start on orbits.
And many countries do it, including of prestige reasons.

Hotel Bigelow and SpaceX together create the new space market. The market on which any country or the firm having sufficient means, can send the person into an orbit. Thus requirements to preparation of this person are shown rather simple. To prepare such "cosmonaut" it is possible quickly, and this preparation does not demand that some months "cosmonaut" would live in Zveznom

Approximately so has occurred, when Commandant Cousteau has invented an aqualung. But "space tourism" is rather expensive, and still long time will be inaccessible to the average person. Therefore, it is quite probable that space tourism becomes very prestigious kind of rest (compare to races of yachts, or aviation and a car racing of first half of twentieth century) and then business of "space hotels" becomes very favourable. But it will thus be found out that only SpaceX basically it is ready to work on so quickly extending market and to earn profit in the conditions of the falling price for delivery of a payload for an orbit.

But also that not all. After that naturally there will be a question about "returning to the Moon". And here then it will be found out that SpaceX, having fulfilled on Grasshopper technologies, can create reusable "Moon's Grasshopper". Which, in turn, can lower considerably cost "returnings to the Moon".....

Therefore it is possible to tell that while the others look at what market of space services now, Bigelow and Musk look at what this market can already become in the near future. Also work. I need to wish only them in it successes and good luck. And to look at them (alas, from outside) with admiration.

[QuantumG]

Hotel Bigelow

I recommend not using the word "Hotel" to refer to anything Bigelow Aerospace is doing. They have denied any such activities.

[Valerij]

Hotel Bigelow

I recommend not using the word "Hotel" to refer to anything Bigelow Aerospace is doing. They have denied any such activities.

It agree, this true remark. "Hotel Bigelow" is not the correct name. And I as am assured that personal space tourism will not be at first a basis of business Bigelow Aerospace. But in Russia many business centres were created in large hotels, and many in them exist till now, therefore this name has settled.

By analogy would be more correct to name "Space Business Centre Bigelow". 

I ask me to excuse.

[A_M_Swallow]

Hotel Bigelow

I recommend not using the word "Hotel" to refer to anything Bigelow Aerospace is doing. They have denied any such activities.

What Bigelow is doing is more like leasing a flat or workshop.

[Valerij]

What Bigelow is doing is more like leasing a flat or workshop.

No "leasing". It's only rent.

[A_M_Swallow]

What Bigelow is doing is more like leasing a flat or workshop.

No "leasing". It's only rent.

In English property is normally leased for rent.


from http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lease
{quote}

lease noun, verb, leased, leasing.

noun
1. a contract renting land, buildings, etc., to another; a contract or instrument conveying property to another for a specified period or for a period determinable at the will of either lessor or lessee in consideration of rent or other compensation.
2. the property leased.
3. the period of time for which a lease is made: a five-year lease.

verb (used with object)
4. to grant the temporary possession or use of (lands, tenements, etc.) to another, usually for compensation at a fixed rate; let: She plans to lease her apartment to a friend.
5. to take or hold by lease: He leased the farm from the sheriff.

verb (used without object)
6. to grant a lease; let or rent: to lease at a lower rental.

{/quote}

[pathfinder_01]

What Bigelow is doing is more like leasing a flat or workshop.

No "leasing". It's only rent.

In American English leasing and renting have differing meanings. In both you pay money to the landlord who owns the property. However in a lease you have a contract set for a certain time period say five years and the owner must abide by that contract. Say you agree to pay say $2000 a month for five years on say office space in some building he owns. When the lease expires then you must leave or renegotiate another lease. You can break a lease (i.e. Decide to stop paying on the contract), but there can be penalties for doing so. In this case Bigelow could not increase the amount beyond $2000 a year for five years and if you decide to leave in three years you could owe Bigelow money and if Bigelow breaks the lease he could likewise owe you money. 

With rent there is no expiration on the contract. You agree to pay the land lord X a month. The land lord can change the rent as much as he likes (as long as he stay within the law).However there is no expectation that the renter is going to leave after some set period. With rent you usually have to give notice to the land lord that you are going to leave in X days (there are laws regarding this too) and if the land lord wants to kick you out he must give you notice. In this case you and Bigelow agree that you will pay $200 a month. He could increase the rent to $7000 a month, so long as he does not violate any laws(some cites have rent control--rare) and you can leave at anytime(provide you give your notice within the law) without owing money. i.e. You get his notice of increase, think H to the NO give your notice and leave then he doesn’t get any more money from you.

Typically leases are used for longer time periods (years usually and sometimes months), while rent is month to month (or even biweekly). Businesses usually lease property(people may also lease) while people are more likely to rent.

Also likewise there is a difference between renting, leasing, and owing a car. With rent you pay for use of the car(usually by day but there are by hour servies in some cities), you don't pay maintance on the car. With lease you pay but once the lease ends(say 3-5 years) the car goes back the the owner(car dealer). You may have to pay if you exceed milage and you do have to pay maintence. With owing you own the car outright.

[QuantumG]

Rental agreements for property in the US, especially domestic rental properties, are anything but standard, and certainly not a matter of language.. or on-topic for this forum.

Sheesh.

[Orbital Debris]

as for the BA330 - Does Bigelow have a actual packaging and transport plan to get the module to a LV provider?

They don't have an actual plan.  I had asked about it early on, and got only shrugs and vague answers.  I would speculate that if they ever actually build one, it would be at another plant than the North Las Vegas facility.

[BrightLight]

as for the BA330 - Does Bigelow have a actual packaging and transport plan to get the module to a LV provider?

They don't have an actual plan.  I had asked about it early on, and got only shrugs and vague answers.  I would speculate that if they ever actually build one, it would be at another plant than the North Las Vegas facility.

Thank you for looking into this issue - it is at the heart of the Bigelow question.  The Genesis modules were tight fits on the aircraft and the 330 is considerably larger, serious planning and logistics is required to transport aviation, let alone space qualified, integrated systems.  While this question might seem trivial, your response indicates to me that Bigelow is not planning in the near future to do anything substantial with the manned module side of his business. Those of us on this site that think Bigelow is going to build and launch a major new orbital platform (BA330) are unfortunately - dreaming, as in ponies and unicorns.  I truly hope he is able to work something out with NASA for ISS and suspect BA will leverage some of the engineering to get a small module into orbit and attached.

[Prober]

"But also that not all. After that naturally there will be a question about "returning to the Moon". And here then it will be found out that SpaceX, having fulfilled on Grasshopper technologies, can create reusable "Moon's Grasshopper". Which, in turn, can lower considerably cost "returnings to the Moon"....."

hmm another person that can see what grasshopper is for.

[Orbital Debris]

RTB has videos on the web about aliens helping to discover new elements, and I would put just as much credence in them as anything he says about being ready to go anytime soon.

Owch.  If your's wasn't the voice of experience, some would call this an attack.  From you it's just a sad observation.

Yes, I suppose that was rather harsh.  I was not trying to be uncivil to the original poster, but that I've heard a lot of big talk come from RTB over the years and therein lies the source of my cynicism.  If he truly believes what he is saying, he is woefully misinformed on what is going on in his own factory.  If not, he is being disingenuous.
Among the organizational problems at BA is the oversimplification of the work ahead.  I think commercial crew is a promising opportunity to deliver transport around 2017, but that doesn't mean that BA can twiddle it's thumbs. 
I'm a big fan of the design (such that I put several years of career toward it), I just wish it was not in the hands of a dysfunctional organization that is squandering this opportunity.
I'll step off the soapbox and return to updates or answering questions. 

[tigerade]

I'll step off the soapbox and return to updates or answering questions. 

Sure.  Bigelow says they are waiting on commercial crew to build the BA330 and make a real commercial spacestation.  Reading between the lines, building the space station will cost a huge amount of money, and wouldn't be justified without a customer.  Customers probably won't put down big money for rides to a space station that doesn't exist.  It seems like a major chicken and the egg problem.  Do you forsee this being resolved in the near future, and for real work to start on the BA330?  Or do you think we won't hear anymore about BA330 until commercial crew is ready?

[A_M_Swallow]

I get the distinct feeling that the underlying problem is that hotels do not design air conditioning units, lifts and cooking equipment - they buy them off the shelf.  The first commercial spacestation firm will have to organise its own engineering effort to provide life support, cooking, hygiene, station keeping and docking services.  This will result in major cost and time overruns.

[Tea Party Space Czar]

<snip>

It seems like a major chicken and the egg problem.  Do you forsee this being resolved in the near future, and for real work to start on the BA330?  Or do you think we won't hear anymore about BA330 until commercial crew is ready?

Bigelow needs Commercial Crew.  BA330 does not cost hundreds of millions.  Depending on who's numbers you want to believe, Bigelow may be a bigger customer of Commercial Crew than NASA.

Respectfully,
Andrew Gasser
TEA Party in Space

[RDoc]

With the possible exception of space tourism, and possibly some national ego building, I still don't quite get what customer base Bigelow is addressing.

Why would a company or nation want a manned orbital habitat?