Author Topic: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)  (Read 353495 times)

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #200 on: 10/04/2011 11:19 pm »
yet at the same time it seems many have the knee jerk reaction to blame NASA.

You don't say...

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #201 on: 10/05/2011 04:21 am »
Is there any particular reason the BA330 would have to be flown to its launch site?

No particular reason, it could be barged.  Flight from Las Vegas would be preferable than trying to wide load it across America.  However you would still need to get to to an airport for a large enough transport.

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #202 on: 10/05/2011 04:38 am »
Relocation of the operation is always a possibility.  There is no practical way to transport a stowed BA330 from Las Vegas to a potential launch site. When I pointed this out I was told "we are working on it".  I suspected that meant assembly at a different facility. 

What you are really saying is that Bigelow, to this point, never addressed the issue of transport of a large module from Las Vegas.

In my experience, the "we are working on it" response doesn't mean that the issue is being worked, just that you have raised an inconvenient fact.

Bingo!


Really??? If the stowed BA-330 was a small as you suggested earlier (less than 5 m diameter), it seems far-fetched to believe that air-transport was not an opinion.

I know you try to come off an unbiased ex-employee (and perhaps you are) - but this seems like a trivial issue to solve compared to the other issues BA is and was facing.

A lot of it would seem far-fetched, but like I said, there are a lot of details that are not locked down. 
Would it seem far-fetched that they post claims about radiation shielding, and they don't have conclusive data?  I know for a fact that no conclusive testing has been performed on their softgoods.  And the Genesis data is insufficient to extrapolate to the future softgoods.
They have not actually performed trade studies on the shipment.   Another facet of this is that they truly don't know the stowed diameter of even a Sundancer, because they don't have a folding scheme that has been tested on real hardware. 
They built a Sundancer outer layer out of canvas, and folded it around a non-flight test core.  In no way did it simulate the stiffness of folding the multiple layers of carbon-fiber and thermal layers that would make up the MMOD.  Nor have they developed tooling to perform the folding.  Genesis was strong-armed and cinched into place, but the SD and BA330 need to be craned into place.

Offline Jason1701

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #203 on: 10/05/2011 04:40 am »
Is there any particular reason the BA330 would have to be flown to its launch site?

No particular reason, it could be barged.  Flight from Las Vegas would be preferable than trying to wide load it across America.  However you would still need to get to to an airport for a large enough transport.

Bigelow is 1.5 miles from North Las Vegas Airport, and there are hardly any structures in between.

Offline Prober

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #204 on: 10/05/2011 04:00 pm »
Is there any particular reason the BA330 would have to be flown to its launch site?

No particular reason, it could be barged.  Flight from Las Vegas would be preferable than trying to wide load it across America.  However you would still need to get to to an airport for a large enough transport.

Bigelow is 1.5 miles from North Las Vegas Airport, and there are hardly any structures in between.

you forget the bigger bet that would be Nellis AFB.   

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Offline grr

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #205 on: 10/05/2011 05:21 pm »
Is there any particular reason the BA330 would have to be flown to its launch site?

No particular reason, it could be barged.  Flight from Las Vegas would be preferable than trying to wide load it across America.  However you would still need to get to to an airport for a large enough transport.

Bigelow is 1.5 miles from North Las Vegas Airport, and there are hardly any structures in between.

you forget the bigger bet that would be Nellis AFB.   



Nellis is more than 11 miles away.
North LV Airport is 1.5 miles away.
Of course, it depends on what can land there.


http://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=Nellis+AFB,+NV&daddr=Bigelow+Aerospace,+West+Brooks+Avenue,+North+Las+Vegas,+NV&hl=en&ll=36.245104,-115.107536&spn=0.148689,0.21801&sll=36.21187,-115.176201&sspn=0.148752,0.21801&geocode=Fd8xKQIduEEk-Sk5RRqfl93IgDHvta1vKUoKiQ%3BFSKNKAIdEbAi-SGAZW7rozj0_SkHV_tsE8LIgDEguSpwnoPRvg&vpsrc=0&mra=ls&t=h&z=12


http://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=north+LV+airport&daddr=Bigelow+Aerospace,+West+Brooks+Avenue,+North+Las+Vegas,+NV&hl=en&sll=36.20623,-115.1427&sspn=0.037191,0.054502&geocode=FcKFKAIdlFwi-SHTBHQPUmjYrA%3BFSKNKAIdEbAi-SGAZW7rozj0_SkHV_tsE8LIgDEguSpwnoPRvg&vpsrc=0&mra=ls&t=h&z=15

Offline Danderman

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #206 on: 10/05/2011 05:40 pm »
A lot of it would seem far-fetched, but like I said, there are a lot of details that are not locked down. 
Would it seem far-fetched that they post claims about radiation shielding, and they don't have conclusive data?  I know for a fact that no conclusive testing has been performed on their softgoods.  And the Genesis data is insufficient to extrapolate to the future softgoods.
They have not actually performed trade studies on the shipment.   Another facet of this is that they truly don't know the stowed diameter of even a Sundancer, because they don't have a folding scheme that has been tested on real hardware. 
They built a Sundancer outer layer out of canvas, and folded it around a non-flight test core.  In no way did it simulate the stiffness of folding the multiple layers of carbon-fiber and thermal layers that would make up the MMOD.  Nor have they developed tooling to perform the folding.  Genesis was strong-armed and cinched into place, but the SD and BA330 need to be craned into place.


This apparent lack of long term planning implies that if there were any system engineers at Bigelow, they probably hit the bottle a lot out of frustration.

Both Bigelow and SpaceX used the design system of "the person spending the money makes the decisions on system trades" (or decides not to perform system trades, and just decides on the spot); like the Germans in WWII and the Russians under Korolyev, if the person making those decisions is really good, the results from the system are superior to NASA/ESA systems engineering. If the person making the decisions is not good, then standard systems engineering is better.

Of course, you only know if the top guy is any good waaaaaaaaay down the road. So, if its their money, they pay the price or reap the rewards.

Then, of course, you get the hybrid approach like NASA under Griffin, where the genius decides everything up front, and then system trades are performed to justify the initial decisions, which has all of the bad attributes of the "one guy makes the decisions" and little of the upside from system engineering.



« Last Edit: 10/06/2011 03:40 pm by Danderman »

Offline Prober

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #207 on: 10/05/2011 07:07 pm »
Is there any particular reason the BA330 would have to be flown to its launch site?

No particular reason, it could be barged.  Flight from Las Vegas would be preferable than trying to wide load it across America.  However you would still need to get to to an airport for a large enough transport.

Bigelow is 1.5 miles from North Las Vegas Airport, and there are hardly any structures in between.

you forget the bigger bet that would be Nellis AFB.   



Nellis is more than 11 miles away.
North LV Airport is 1.5 miles away.
Of course, it depends on what can land there.


http://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=Nellis+AFB,+NV&daddr=Bigelow+Aerospace,+West+Brooks+Avenue,+North+Las+Vegas,+NV&hl=en&ll=36.245104,-115.107536&spn=0.148689,0.21801&sll=36.21187,-115.176201&sspn=0.148752,0.21801&geocode=Fd8xKQIduEEk-Sk5RRqfl93IgDHvta1vKUoKiQ%3BFSKNKAIdEbAi-SGAZW7rozj0_SkHV_tsE8LIgDEguSpwnoPRvg&vpsrc=0&mra=ls&t=h&z=12


http://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=north+LV+airport&daddr=Bigelow+Aerospace,+West+Brooks+Avenue,+North+Las+Vegas,+NV&hl=en&sll=36.20623,-115.1427&sspn=0.037191,0.054502&geocode=FcKFKAIdlFwi-SHTBHQPUmjYrA%3BFSKNKAIdEbAi-SGAZW7rozj0_SkHV_tsE8LIgDEguSpwnoPRvg&vpsrc=0&mra=ls&t=h&z=15

North is for small commute planes
Nellis can handle the heavy lift.
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Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #208 on: 10/08/2011 03:21 pm »
WRT to an ISS module, that is a possibility.  The BEAM project was scoped as a galaxy size (like Genesis, but slightly larger diameter) shell.  When I left, the status was in doubt, and based on the comments from the layoff, I would think that NASA balked at funding it.  The largest part of the funding would have been the integration tasks, which may have killed it.  I felt that Bigelow had seriously underbid the hardware, which stemmed from being naive on the level of effort required to deliver an ISS payload. 

So is the BEAM project dead???  What do you think is needed to make it viable???
My statement was based upon reports of the speech on Thursday of "lack of NASA funding for an ISS module".  Prospects for BEAM looked dim when I left.  The only provisions in the CR before the ISS board were for developing requirements, no funding for hardware.  The CR was not funded and there were a lot of objections within NASA for funding it.  Within the company, management did not see the value (not something I agreed with, I thought there was great value, to the point of subsidizing the hardware).
So, I can't say for sure that it is dead, but it seems likely.

What value did you see for Bigelow??  This is your opinion..
IMO, there was value from a marketing standpoint, and value to be gained beyond the MMOD development of Genesis.  Comparison side by side of radiation shielding, thermal qualities of the flexible MMOD vs. ISS hull sections.  In addition, producing spaceflight hardware for an external customer would be a training for the when Bigelow would need to produce documentation for external customers.

Sometimes you have to spend money to make more money down the road...say if the ISS partners wanted to see a habitat at an L1 or on the moon....you already have a relationship and they are already flying one of your habitats...

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #209 on: 10/08/2011 03:28 pm »
Relocation of the operation is always a possibility.  There is no practical way to transport a stowed BA330 from Las Vegas to a potential launch site. When I pointed this out I was told "we are working on it".  I suspected that meant assembly at a different facility. 

What you are really saying is that Bigelow, to this point, never addressed the issue of transport of a large module from Las Vegas.

In my experience, the "we are working on it" response doesn't mean that the issue is being worked, just that you have raised an inconvenient fact.

Bingo!


Really??? If the stowed BA-330 was a small as you suggested earlier (less than 5 m diameter), it seems far-fetched to believe that air-transport was not an opinion.

I know you try to come off an unbiased ex-employee (and perhaps you are) - but this seems like a trivial issue to solve compared to the other issues BA is and was facing.

A lot of it would seem far-fetched, but like I said, there are a lot of details that are not locked down. 
Would it seem far-fetched that they post claims about radiation shielding, and they don't have conclusive data?  I know for a fact that no conclusive testing has been performed on their softgoods.  And the Genesis data is insufficient to extrapolate to the future softgoods.
They have not actually performed trade studies on the shipment.   Another facet of this is that they truly don't know the stowed diameter of even a Sundancer, because they don't have a folding scheme that has been tested on real hardware. 
They built a Sundancer outer layer out of canvas, and folded it around a non-flight test core.  In no way did it simulate the stiffness of folding the multiple layers of carbon-fiber and thermal layers that would make up the MMOD.  Nor have they developed tooling to perform the folding.  Genesis was strong-armed and cinched into place, but the SD and BA330 need to be craned into place.


What would you do if you were Bigelow???  remember the constraint--only so much money.. and crew transport is taking longer?  Have you tried to contact him directly and tell him your thoughts and see if he is willing to listen

Offline jedsmd

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #210 on: 10/08/2011 05:48 pm »
Quote
.. and crew transport is taking longer?

All four leading contenders for commercial crew are building, testing, one is even flying. Bigelow is now falling behind. 

Offline Danderman

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #211 on: 10/08/2011 06:23 pm »
Quote
.. and crew transport is taking longer?

All four leading contenders for commercial crew are building, testing, one is even flying. Bigelow is now falling behind. 

The pace of commercial crew is irrelevant to Bigelow's current situation, where he has no viable business case. Even if Dragon were flying, which it is in its cargo variant, Bigelow cannot demonstrate profitability even at Elon's quoted numbers. To get a Dragon into space is so expensive relative to any potential Bigelow customer revenues that to add the cost of a space platform blows any business case out of the water.

My personal opinion is that Bigelow's real goal was sale of a module to NASA for ISS, and he has given up on that at last.


Offline Prober

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #212 on: 10/08/2011 07:52 pm »
Quote
.. and crew transport is taking longer?

All four leading contenders for commercial crew are building, testing, one is even flying. Bigelow is now falling behind. 

The pace of commercial crew is irrelevant to Bigelow's current situation, where he has no viable business case. Even if Dragon were flying, which it is in its cargo variant, Bigelow cannot demonstrate profitability even at Elon's quoted numbers. To get a Dragon into space is so expensive relative to any potential Bigelow customer revenues that to add the cost of a space platform blows any business case out of the water.

My personal opinion is that Bigelow's real goal was sale of a module to NASA for ISS, and he has given up on that at last.


It became his business goal and he built the plant after he was told a sale/lease was near.  It didn't happen.

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Offline Prober

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #213 on: 10/08/2011 07:53 pm »
Quote
.. and crew transport is taking longer?

All four leading contenders for commercial crew are building, testing, one is even flying. Bigelow is now falling behind. 

Private Space Station Builder Downsizes Dramatically
http://news.yahoo.com/private-space-station-builder-downsizes-dramatically-134802538.html

That article says that Bigelow is ahead, waiting for transport.  Which is it?
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Offline jedsmd

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #214 on: 10/08/2011 08:03 pm »
Quote
The pace of commercial crew is irrelevant to Bigelow's current situation, where he has no viable business case.

My point was that BA should not be using the state of CC as an excuse to suspend work, CC is likely to be ready before BA can be. 

I agree the fiscal case for a BA station looks flakey. It takes maintenance and a steady flow of cargo as well as crew service to keep the lights on. Look at what it cost to keep the ISS running.

Quote
My personal opinion is that Bigelow's real goal was sale of a module to NASA for ISS, and he has given up on that at last.

My personal opinion is that for the effort (and cash) he put into the BA station concept he had to think that success was possible.
« Last Edit: 10/08/2011 09:37 pm by jedsmd »

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #215 on: 10/08/2011 08:05 pm »
My personal opinion is that Bigelow's real goal was sale of a module to NASA for ISS, and he has given up on that at last.

I doubt that was his original goal, but I agree these layoffs were likely triggered by Bigelow coming to the conclusion that a sale of an ISS module wasn't going to happen.
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Offline Nathan

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #216 on: 10/08/2011 08:29 pm »
I think bigelow needs to launch a ba330 test module in to orbit as a full sized demonstrator like they did with genesis. A full up test would be worth it. Perhaps have a dragon berth to it to test that out until the other capsule is ready  ( modification required to dragon?). Then theyll be ready to sell a production version.


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Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #217 on: 10/08/2011 08:34 pm »
Recent events can be interpreted as Bigelow coming to the conclusion he isn't ready to deploy a BA-330, either business-wise (even with CCDev successful), or technically.
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Online Jorge

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #218 on: 10/08/2011 08:34 pm »
I think bigelow needs to launch a ba330 test module in to orbit as a full sized demonstrator like they did with genesis. A full up test would be worth it. Perhaps have a dragon berth to it to test that out until the other capsule is ready  ( modification required to dragon?).

Modification required to either Dragon or BA-330. Either BA-330 needs an arm to capture the berthing Dragon, or Dragon needs a docking mechanism.
JRF

Offline go4mars

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #219 on: 10/09/2011 01:41 am »
Either BA-330 needs an arm to capture the berthing Dragon, or Dragon needs a docking mechanism.

I thought I read somewhere that the crew version of dragon will have a docking mechanism.  That would push the timeframe of the event to at least 3 - 4 years from now.  Saving the salaries of 51 engineers for 3 years or so is a big lump of loot (>$15 million + time-value of money).  Maybe in 3 years, if there is a commercially available crew delivery system with docking capability at an advanced stage, he'll go on a hiring blitz and make it happen.  A BA330 launch is going to cost a lot as well.  A test launch might not make as much sense as just doing a full-up version when customers and transport are ready.  The business decision might be related to ramping up later with money saved from today.  OD's opinions suggest there might have been other reasons as well...
« Last Edit: 10/09/2011 01:41 am by go4mars »
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