Author Topic: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)  (Read 353515 times)

Offline go4mars

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #180 on: 10/02/2011 06:07 pm »
From an engineering standpoint, it is all possible.  However, there would have to be sacrifices in module lifespan and mission scope.

Are you able to expand on the part I bolded in a general way without upsetting anyone over concerns of trade secrets? 
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Offline Prober

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #181 on: 10/02/2011 06:14 pm »
The bottom line is that Bigelow cannot afford to 'hibernate' and wait for transportation.  The company needs years of development on its products.  I've sat through Boeing CCDev design reviews, and Bigelow design reviews.  I can tell you, the thought that Bigelow can rest on its laurels and wait for Boeing to catch up is ludicrous.  They have not begun construction on any of the future vehicles.  Anyone here that has experience with building space hardware can tell you, until the pieces begin to come together, there are many things that will come to light in end to end testing and integration.


This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone really.  Mr. Bigelow put his business hat on and saw that business is bad.     If your business model is to depend on the “wait for transportation” how long can you open your wallet and keep funding while you wait?

Mr Bigleow listened to everyone saying the “need is there”.  He willingly coughed up the cash to build the new building and move the company to the next level.

I’m sure he evaluated what the industry is saying now, and what he can see.  Orbital Debris isn’t really saying anything new about “waiting on transportation”.  Most of the info out there is saying the same thing, if you look at the info with open eyes.  The Shelby letter, the HSF commission and most if not all the other sources combined point in the same direction. 
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Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #182 on: 10/02/2011 07:59 pm »
From an engineering standpoint, it is all possible.  However, there would have to be sacrifices in module
 lifespan and mission scope.
Are you able to expand on the part I bolded in a general way without upsetting anyone over concerns of trade secrets? 

Module lifespan grew from 5 years to 20 in the time that I was there. Which drove reliability requirements and ORU logistics to extremes.

Offline manboy

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #183 on: 10/02/2011 08:03 pm »
I think there is a slim chance of success, but that is said with a lot of 'ifs".
Can you expand at all on this?
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Offline hop

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #184 on: 10/02/2011 08:17 pm »
On the other hand, French astronauts have flown on the Shuttle and on Soyuz and have visited Salyut 7, Mir and ISS. ESA astronauts have flown on the Shuttle and have visited ISS. A barter agreement could take care of the pork considerations.
Huh ? How you are you going to barter with a for-profit corporation like Bigelow ? That's my whole point. A government to government agreement has substantially more options and political cover, even if some money changes hands. In most of your examples not much money changed hands. Some ISS and Mir flights involved paying for transport, but even there, it's not necessarily cash up front, e.g. Malaysia got their flight as a perk for buying a bunch of Migs.

Lets say India wants to send it's crew to a Bigalow station for a month, complete with transportation on a CST-100. What are they going to barter that covers the actual cost of the launch and allows Bigelow to pay off his investment in the station ?

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #185 on: 10/02/2011 08:20 pm »
You could barter resupply services and launches against leasing parts of a station.
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Offline hop

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #186 on: 10/02/2011 08:29 pm »
You could barter resupply services and launches against leasing parts of a station.
???
1) If no one pays Bigelow actual money for use of the station, how does he pay his costs ? Who pays for materials and facilities and salaries ? Who pays for the crew launch ? How does he pay off the station development and launch costs ?
2) Which potential customers have the capability to provide resupply, but don't have their own space station to go to ? If they have to build it, why wouldn't they go the extra mile and build their own crew capability ?

Somewhere along the line, hundreds of millions in hard currency are needed to pay the actual expenses ? How does this happen, unless the customers, somewhere along the line, fork over actual money ?

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #187 on: 10/02/2011 08:31 pm »
You couldn't have a 100% barter with a single client, unless there are other paying clients too. But ESA was interested in leasing space on a Bigelow hab back when it looked as if ISS would be deorbited in the next couple of years. Together with an ESA crew capsule that could have worked. The bulk of the money would then still be spent inside national borders.
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Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #188 on: 10/03/2011 12:55 am »
Relocation of the operation is always a possibility.  There is no practical way to transport a stowed BA330 from Las Vegas to a potential launch site. When I pointed this out I was told "we are working on it".  I suspected that meant assembly at a different facility. 
 
That quote could have come from any number of former co-workers, and they would be right.  I could get into a lot of that, but I don't want to get too derivative on this thread.  Suffice to say that I've left the space industry, and this is an interest now, rather than a career.  Thanks.

While employed there, I was hesitant to post here at all. Now that I am firmly out of the company, I feel more free to answer specific questions that anyone here has, as long as the information isn't too proprietary.

(Or is NOT AT ALL "prop" - as that is a complete no no - Chris)

Everyone please take note of my addition to OD's post. You can imagine the alarm bells which went off over OD's post.
Apologies for the alarm bells.  I was trying to make light. While employed, I would not be allowed to offer opinions.  I would not present information here that is proprietary. 

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #189 on: 10/03/2011 01:15 am »
Quote

How many of the engineers that worked on the Genesis program are still there?  Maybe Robert feels that he may be able to hire them or others back in a year or two?  Why do you think he let go of most of the workers but kept most of management???  Maybe he feels that worker bees can be replaced relatively quickly?? 

About 3, depending on how you define worked ;D  None that worked on the softgoods.
RTB doesn't seem to give it much thought.  From all appearances, engineers are considered easy come easy go. I'm sure he thinks worker bees can be replaced quickly. 
« Last Edit: 10/03/2011 01:24 am by Orbital Debris »

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #190 on: 10/03/2011 01:25 am »
Relocation of the operation is always a possibility.  There is no practical way to transport a stowed BA330 from Las Vegas to a potential launch site. When I pointed this out I was told "we are working on it".  I suspected that meant assembly at a different facility. 

What you are really saying is that Bigelow, to this point, never addressed the issue of transport of a large module from Las Vegas.

In my experience, the "we are working on it" response doesn't mean that the issue is being worked, just that you have raised an inconvenient fact.

Bingo!

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #191 on: 10/03/2011 01:58 am »
Thanks OD. I know - just making sure everyone does ;)
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #192 on: 10/03/2011 02:56 am »
Relocation of the operation is always a possibility.  There is no practical way to transport a stowed BA330 from Las Vegas to a potential launch site. When I pointed this out I was told "we are working on it".  I suspected that meant assembly at a different facility. 

What you are really saying is that Bigelow, to this point, never addressed the issue of transport of a large module from Las Vegas.

In my experience, the "we are working on it" response doesn't mean that the issue is being worked, just that you have raised an inconvenient fact.

Bingo!


Really??? If the stowed BA-330 was a small as you suggested earlier (less than 5 m diameter), it seems far-fetched to believe that air-transport was not an opinion.

I know you try to come off an unbiased ex-employee (and perhaps you are) - but this seems like a trivial issue to solve compared to the other issues BA is and was facing.

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #193 on: 10/03/2011 02:57 am »
WRT to an ISS module, that is a possibility.  The BEAM project was scoped as a galaxy size (like Genesis, but slightly larger diameter) shell.  When I left, the status was in doubt, and based on the comments from the layoff, I would think that NASA balked at funding it.  The largest part of the funding would have been the integration tasks, which may have killed it.  I felt that Bigelow had seriously underbid the hardware, which stemmed from being naive on the level of effort required to deliver an ISS payload. 

So is the BEAM project dead???  What do you think is needed to make it viable???
My statement was based upon reports of the speech on Thursday of "lack of NASA funding for an ISS module".  Prospects for BEAM looked dim when I left.  The only provisions in the CR before the ISS board were for developing requirements, no funding for hardware.  The CR was not funded and there were a lot of objections within NASA for funding it.  Within the company, management did not see the value (not something I agreed with, I thought there was great value, to the point of subsidizing the hardware).
So, I can't say for sure that it is dead, but it seems likely.

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #194 on: 10/03/2011 03:16 am »
WRT to an ISS module, that is a possibility.  The BEAM project was scoped as a galaxy size (like Genesis, but slightly larger diameter) shell.  When I left, the status was in doubt, and based on the comments from the layoff, I would think that NASA balked at funding it.  The largest part of the funding would have been the integration tasks, which may have killed it.  I felt that Bigelow had seriously underbid the hardware, which stemmed from being naive on the level of effort required to deliver an ISS payload. 

So is the BEAM project dead???  What do you think is needed to make it viable???
My statement was based upon reports of the speech on Thursday of "lack of NASA funding for an ISS module".  Prospects for BEAM looked dim when I left.  The only provisions in the CR before the ISS board were for developing requirements, no funding for hardware.  The CR was not funded and there were a lot of objections within NASA for funding it.  Within the company, management did not see the value (not something I agreed with, I thought there was great value, to the point of subsidizing the hardware).
So, I can't say for sure that it is dead, but it seems likely.

What value did you see for Bigelow??  This is your opinion..

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #195 on: 10/03/2011 04:27 am »
WRT to an ISS module, that is a possibility.  The BEAM project was scoped as a galaxy size (like Genesis, but slightly larger diameter) shell.  When I left, the status was in doubt, and based on the comments from the layoff, I would think that NASA balked at funding it.  The largest part of the funding would have been the integration tasks, which may have killed it.  I felt that Bigelow had seriously underbid the hardware, which stemmed from being naive on the level of effort required to deliver an ISS payload. 

So is the BEAM project dead???  What do you think is needed to make it viable???
My statement was based upon reports of the speech on Thursday of "lack of NASA funding for an ISS module".  Prospects for BEAM looked dim when I left.  The only provisions in the CR before the ISS board were for developing requirements, no funding for hardware.  The CR was not funded and there were a lot of objections within NASA for funding it.  Within the company, management did not see the value (not something I agreed with, I thought there was great value, to the point of subsidizing the hardware).
So, I can't say for sure that it is dead, but it seems likely.

What value did you see for Bigelow??  This is your opinion..
IMO, there was value from a marketing standpoint, and value to be gained beyond the MMOD development of Genesis.  Comparison side by side of radiation shielding, thermal qualities of the flexible MMOD vs. ISS hull sections.  In addition, producing spaceflight hardware for an external customer would be a training for the when Bigelow would need to produce documentation for external customers.

Offline Jason1701

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #196 on: 10/03/2011 04:31 am »
I see this as a smart move by Bigelow to avoid paying for a standing army until they really have something to do.

Offline grr

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #197 on: 10/03/2011 08:16 pm »

IIRC, A 747 cargo can do over 5 meters both ways in the first half. Considering its length, it would have little problem taking one BA-330, probably more.
Something bigger would be problematic.  However, the simple answer is that when they get the company going,they can simply buy one of the old shuttle's 747 transports and then place it on a container on the top of it.  I suspect that NASA would part with one of them esp. if they can make use of it every so often.

See SCTS.

NASA is using SCA's for spares on SOFIA

http://www.collectspace.com/ubb/Forum30/HTML/001028.html
Hmmm.
Apparently NASA is looking to use these for spare parts in a couple of years.
That would be kind of sad considering that these have undergone extensive modifications for supporting these big bulky loads.
Hopefully, Evergreen or some other group will decide that these would be useful to keep going and perhaps trade for one of their own older equipment. Heck, these could be modified to be water tankers for firefighting before being let go, with the ability to still carry large loads.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #198 on: 10/04/2011 05:22 pm »
Apparently NASA is looking to use these for spare parts in a couple of years.
That would be kind of sad considering that these have undergone extensive modifications for supporting these big bulky loads.
Hopefully, Evergreen or some other group will decide that these would be useful to keep going and perhaps trade for one of their own older equipment. Heck, these could be modified to be water tankers for firefighting before being let go, with the ability to still carry large loads.

They are early model 747s and there is not much demand for them anymore. I also suspect that they have old avionics and fly with exemptions from certain FAA requirements (like navigation and comm). That means that anybody buying them would have to pay to upgrade them. It might be cheaper for a commercial company to simply buy a newer model (400 series) 747 instead.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2011 05:23 pm by Blackstar »

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (2)
« Reply #199 on: 10/04/2011 08:36 pm »
Returning to the topic of Bigelow, many here have criticized NASA for not supporting Commercial crew that would enable his case, yet in the first years he explicitly stated he did not want government involvement in development of crew systems.  From the Rules for America's Space Prize:

Quote
The Competitor must not accept or utilize government development funding related to this contest of any kind, nor shall there be any government ownership of the competitor.


Which immediately ruled out any company actively working on a viable craft, as they would go for the easier NASA funds through COTS and then eventually CCDev. Further more, there was no offer of a service contract with Bigelow independent of competing in the America's Space Prize.

Eventually Bigelow realized that the Prize and emphasis on reusability was hurting their business case, and switched to Lockheed on Orion Lite.  However yet again that proved to be a failed avenue.

Now this is not to lay blame squarely on the shoulders of Bigelow for trying to find a solution, yet at the same time it seems many have the knee jerk reaction to blame NASA.  In the case of Biegelow NASA is only a fairly recent actor, and when combined with previous failed avenues as well as the economic conditions is only a factor in a perfect storm.  And at least Bigelow is still around.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2011 08:36 pm by Ronsmytheiii »

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