Author Topic: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation  (Read 19695 times)

Online 2552

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« on: 08/23/2011 02:22 PM »
http://twitter.com/#!/NASA/status/106006480414707713

Quote
The independent cost assessment summary of SLS, Orion, and 21st Century Ground Ops is online at nasa.gov/news/reports/i...

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/581582main_BAH_Executive_Summary.pdf

Offline aquanaut99

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #1 on: 08/23/2011 02:28 PM »
http://twitter.com/#!/NASA/status/106006480414707713

Quote
The independent cost assessment summary of SLS, Orion, and 21st Century Ground Ops is online at nasa.gov/news/reports/i...

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/581582main_BAH_Executive_Summary.pdf

Thanks for that. I've only skimmed it, but to me, this confirms what I've believed for quite some time: SLS is pure cancellation-bait and will never leave the ground, and most probably not even bend any actual metal.
« Last Edit: 08/23/2011 02:29 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline M_Puckett

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #2 on: 08/23/2011 02:43 PM »
51D,

Has anyone asked NASA to try and release a redacted version with the vendor sensitive info blotted out?

Seems important to underscore that the BAH Independent Cost Assessment is not the same as an Independent Cost Estimate, so it does not reflect what the BAH thinks the SLS/MPCV and Ground Operations costs "could" be. And it's also important to remember, the estimates they were given included ALL THREE of those elements, NOT just the SLS.  This report only addresses the degree of confidence the assessment found in the particular cost estimates and sets of assumptions provided to them by NASA. And a huge part of that presentation would have to have been a "budget runout" showing a projected funding profile, year-by-year, over a specified period. Without knowing those projections, it will be difficult to really understand the actual meaning and impact of the BAH report. Yet my guess is that information will not be included in the Executive Summary or whatever is publicly released by NASA. So we'll likely see a lot more debate and discussion without a firm factual foundation. Disappointing, to say the least.

Couldn't the Congress have commissioned a CBO study?

As of today, the Congress (as in the Committees of jurisdiction, in this case) has the information at the detailed level, and is reviewing it. My point in the above was expressing frustration at the apparent decision reportedly stated by a NASA Public Affairs spokesman that NASA would likely not publicly release the full report or the underlying assumptions, which would better inform public discussion about the issue.

Hearing that, your next question might be whether the Congress could or would release the information it has received. All I can say is that the question of release by the Congress of information an agency has deemed sensitive is one that the Senate Commerce Committee takes very seriously and with regard to which there are policies and rules governing such situations. Exceptions or waivers would require serious discussion and consideration by Members and leadership.

The question of asking CBO, or GAO or anyone for a review or an alternative assessment would be an issue to consider if the BAH assessment were to be deemed inadequate or if there was a desire to have it validated by a third party, which remains to be seen after the assessment is fully digested. 



Offline john smith 19

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #3 on: 08/23/2011 02:57 PM »
It's just 12 pages long so I suggest anyone whose interested in reading it should.

Key point.
NASA's cost estimate (of MPCV, SLS and 21st century ground)  *is* good enough for planning over the next 3-5 years.

The programmes lacked sufficient reserves to cope with plausible problems that could come up. However this excluded mis-estimates in the likelihood they would happen and unknown-unknowns.

The programmes mention expected cost savings but BAH are skeptical about them either because they lack detail or historically things have not happened that way.

They don't split things out into fixed and overhead costs, which would allow decisions to made about the benefits of deferring costs and what kind of costs to defer.

There's little coordination between the costs and schedules of the 3 programmes.

The programmes don't always do things the way the GAO recommends but do follow NASA's in house cost estimating handbook.

NASA should get detailed full life cycle cost estimates done when the details of the programmes are sorted out.


My impression is the Av Week blurb was a bit misleading and while BAH are not entirely happy with approach it's good enough to be getting on with development *provided* NASA revisit the details as work proceeds.
 
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Offline baldusi

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #4 on: 08/23/2011 03:12 PM »
I think the most important part was where it stated that they were reasonable for the next 3-5 years in a budget restricted mode, but then made a lot of (not sufficiently substantiated) assumptions about cost cutting for the following years. Not only that, but it was very difficult to predict the impact of budget impacts on the overall program cost and schedule. I.e. not only how much would cost and schedule slip if budget are restricted, but also how much could be saved and advanced for small/medium/big budget increases.
And save for the KSC 21C, the other two used incorrect inflation indices, which for an economist is the first sign of "trying to make it nice". On the other hand, the Orion is very advanced and save for changes in baseline seems very on track.
My overall impression, is that the KSC is good enough for this moment of planning (strategic), the Orion is reasonable, but it should be decided if it's going to be married to the SLS or not. Because, from this very limited information, I wouldn't bet on the SLS program going forward. Again, my profession is about making educated guesses on absolute lack of information, so I might be a bit risk taking when making my analysis.

Offline Namechange User

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #5 on: 08/23/2011 03:20 PM »
My *quick scan* of the document gave me the impression that their findings/recommendations were pretty good.

To my surprise and joy, they also call out that there is seemingly no integrated strategy and plans, call out basic project management practices and speak of the organizational disfuntion in having everything an "independent program". 
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Offline robertross

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SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #6 on: 08/23/2011 03:21 PM »
http://twitter.com/#!/NASA/status/106006480414707713

Quote
The independent cost assessment summary of SLS, Orion, and 21st Century Ground Ops is online at nasa.gov/news/reports/i...

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/581582main_BAH_Executive_Summary.pdf

Thanks for the link.

edit: here's a killer note:

"Recommendation: The ICA Team recommends that HEO/ESD use the occasion of a selection of a new SLS architecture to establish a common practice across Programs for generating cost and schedule estimates; establish documentation standards for BOEs; and create and disseminate BOE, cost, and schedule estimate templates to Programs."
« Last Edit: 08/23/2011 03:27 PM by robertross »
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Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #7 on: 08/23/2011 03:27 PM »
Worth a new thread. Reading now.

Offline robertross

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #8 on: 08/23/2011 03:28 PM »
Worth a new thread. Reading now.

Absolutely. Thanks.
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Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #9 on: 08/23/2011 03:32 PM »
So this is almost saying "We've done our work, but you need another set of estimates"?

End para:

"The ICA Team believes that the recommendations contained within in this report and its appendices provide NASA an actionable framework to produce the quality estimates required to ensure the financial success of NASAís next generation of human space exploration programs."
« Last Edit: 08/23/2011 03:32 PM by Chris Bergin »

Offline robertross

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #10 on: 08/23/2011 03:35 PM »
So this is almost saying "We've done our work, but you need another set of estimates"?

End para:

"The ICA Team believes that the recommendations contained within in this report and its appendices provide NASA an actionable framework to produce the quality estimates required to ensure the financial success of NASAís next generation of human space exploration programs."
Waiting all this time for a new round of estimates & oversight only to show it wasn't done right in the first place.

So another case of stall tactics on NASA's (or some other) part? Possibly.

(OT: considering how messed up JWST management is/was, this comes as no surprise to me)

When's our next robotic mission flying?  ;)
« Last Edit: 08/23/2011 03:36 PM by robertross »
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Offline Namechange User

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #11 on: 08/23/2011 03:35 PM »
So this is almost saying "We've done our work, but you need another set of estimates"?

End para:

"The ICA Team believes that the recommendations contained within in this report and its appendices provide NASA an actionable framework to produce the quality estimates required to ensure the financial success of NASAís next generation of human space exploration programs."


Pretty much what I expected it to be really.  That's why I thought there findings/conclusions were pretty good.  Of course this is an "executive summary" essentially and as 51D points out in the other thread, we may never see the real meat. 
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #12 on: 08/23/2011 04:07 PM »
Which just leaves 1 question.


     Is this estimate good enough to allow work to proceed (at least in the short term)?
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Offline baldusi

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #13 on: 08/23/2011 04:10 PM »
Which just leaves 1 question.


     Is this estimate good enough to allow work to proceed (at least in the short term)?
The way I read it was: It's good to proceed to get the real budget. If going with this budget, you'll get a good estimate for the next 3 to 5 years and the it will probably balloon. This estimate doesn't let make budget curve optimizations (i.e. knowing how much budget today means more or less development years).

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #14 on: 08/23/2011 04:13 PM »

Did anyone else think that something called an "Independent Cost Assessment" might contain, you know, cost estimates? What the executive summary seems to be summarizing would be better called an "Independent Assessment of NASA Cost Estimation Procedures."  Maybe the full version of the report does contain some dollar figures.
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Offline Jorge

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #15 on: 08/23/2011 04:25 PM »

Did anyone else think that something called an "Independent Cost Assessment" might contain, you know, cost estimates?

I wasn't. That would be an ICE, not an ICA.
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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #16 on: 08/23/2011 04:34 PM »
Worth a new thread. Reading now.

I would debate the PDF is worth the read.
 
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Offline simonbp

Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #17 on: 08/23/2011 05:04 PM »
In all three cases, they seem to like the comprehensiveness of the NASA estimate, but decry the lack of sensitivity studies. Given the history of Ares I/Orion and Ares V (where all the designs were extremely sensitive), that seems a huge gap that really needs to plugged.

Also, they only had an option on the overall costs, _not_ the schedule, because they didn't formally receive it. Is that just due to the schedule still being in flux?

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #18 on: 08/23/2011 05:15 PM »

Did anyone else think that something called an "Independent Cost Assessment" might contain, you know, cost estimates?

I wasn't. That would be an ICE, not an ICA.

Ah, I see 51D Mascot explained that yesterday. I need to catch up on my reading.
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Offline Namechange User

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #19 on: 08/23/2011 05:50 PM »
In all three cases, they seem to like the comprehensiveness of the NASA estimate, but decry the lack of sensitivity studies. Given the history of Ares I/Orion and Ares V (where all the designs were extremely sensitive), that seems a huge gap that really needs to plugged.

Also, they only had an option on the overall costs, _not_ the schedule, because they didn't formally receive it. Is that just due to the schedule still being in flux?

In a post last week I discussed phases of overall project/program management.  Sensitivity studies are generally a fine thing to do but history you speak of really went wrong in the "execution" and "monitoring/control" phases, which are iterative to each other.  The sensitivity studies just define the bandwith one has to work with before some stricter measures are required, not the will to do it. 

As for schedule, it is difficult to really guage cost without one.  They are very much related.  While BAH seemed to think NASA's cost estimate was fair for the "conceptualization" stage, one has to wonder why some sort of "Master Integrated Schedule" was not given (and pointed out by them as a concern). 

I'll leave it to the reader to determine what the purpose of that was and if it is perhaps more evident now of "foot-dragging" in addition to perhaps seeing why things really do need an integrated plan. 
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Offline Jeff Bingham

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #20 on: 08/23/2011 06:46 PM »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #21 on: 08/23/2011 06:51 PM »
So, are you saying that Mr. Bolden orchestrated the quake as yet another delaying tactic?  Just askin'.
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Offline kch

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #22 on: 08/23/2011 07:02 PM »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.

Hope it wasn't one of those black helicop

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #23 on: 08/23/2011 07:05 PM »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.

Hope it wasn't one of those black helicop
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Offline Jeff Bingham

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #24 on: 08/23/2011 07:21 PM »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.

Hope it wasn't one of those black helicop

Hehe...actually, some VERY military style helicopters and some very LARGE helicopters frequently fly over the farm, because Mount Weather, one of the major remote C and C centers operated by DHS, is located just up on the Ridge a few miles above the farm. Often see multiple choppers flying to and fro, which is probably why that was what the sound of the earthquake suggested to me, since I didn't actually feel a noticeable vibration under foot; nothing like they did in my office in DC, where things actually fell of of shelves, I'm told.
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #25 on: 08/23/2011 08:03 PM »
nothing like they did in my office in DC, where things actually fell of of shelves, I'm told.

Yes, I've gotten messages from folks who were in DC and Tysons Corner who said it was pretty shaky for 30 seconds or so.

Off thread, disculpe.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #26 on: 08/23/2011 09:19 PM »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting was that the cost estimates, specifically for SLS, was a massaged updated trade study cost estimate that started life as one of the ďsolutionsĒ from the government and industry architecture studies presented earlier this year. Although fleshed out its usability for detailed planning is no better than the original presented report. The duration of credibility doesnít even include first SLS launch. So the 2017/2018 date weíve been hearing for first SLS launch is highly questionable.

The MPCV estimates sounded more like from the BAH summary comments that it was the latest output from the cost sensitivities analysis for changing schedule, budget and LV.

21CGS seemed to get a bad rating due to lateness of the estimate delivery to BAH but had the best compliment that the NASA group doing the estimates for the program has been historically spot on for schedule and cost.

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #27 on: 08/23/2011 09:28 PM »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting...

Yes, my poor old brain would appreciate a metasummary of the summary.

I.e., what implications does it have for the as-yet notional SLS program?
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #28 on: 08/23/2011 09:48 PM »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting...

Yes, my poor old brain would appreciate a metasummary of the summary.

I.e., what implications does it have for the as-yet notional SLS program?

That there is 0 trust in any cost/schedule or technical design "performance" targets after 3 years out. So the 70MT launcher may end up being a 60MT launcher, cost twice as much and take until 2020 to launch. Or it could launch earlier, cost less and be able to launch 80MT. But which has historiclly been the case?

P.S- Even SpaceX's F9 has been of the second case, late, cost more and with less performance than advertised. why do we think that NASA will do better than highly succesful commercial developer like SpaceX?
« Last Edit: 08/23/2011 09:51 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Prober

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #29 on: 08/23/2011 10:07 PM »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting...

Yes, my poor old brain would appreciate a metasummary of the summary.

I.e., what implications does it have for the as-yet notional SLS program?

That there is 0 trust in any cost/schedule or technical design "performance" targets after 3 years out. So the 70MT launcher may end up being a 60MT launcher, cost twice as much and take until 2020 to launch. Or it could launch earlier, cost less and be able to launch 80MT. But which has historiclly been the case?

P.S- Even SpaceX's F9 has been of the second case, late, cost more and with less performance than advertised. why do we think that NASA will do better than highly succesful commercial developer like SpaceX?

Hey old Atlas, this reminds me of a redux of the Bush program.  Two sets of now for a new name?
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Offline JohnF

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #30 on: 08/23/2011 10:28 PM »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #31 on: 08/23/2011 10:35 PM »
SpaceX's F9 goal post turned out to be farther away and smaller than they had hoped.

NASA's HLV goal post is so far away it's over the horizon so that you can't tell how big it is or even close to how far away it is!

Offline robertross

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #32 on: 08/23/2011 10:35 PM »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Might be, or a way to cast doubt on what NASA has provided to give congress enough doubt to force a delay by having NASA produce more tangible information to reviewed by them (BAH) and/or another party.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #33 on: 08/23/2011 10:37 PM »
To me it sound more of BAH saying, politely, that those budgets (specially SLS) are not realistic for the whole program. But, if they want to take them as a jobs program until the next administration, they could probably work. I pity the keynesian economist trying to get out of this recession.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #34 on: 08/23/2011 10:43 PM »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Might be, or a way to cast doubt on what NASA has provided to give congress enough doubt to force a delay by having NASA produce more tangible information to reviewed by them (BAH) and/or another party.

BAH comment about the SLS data is that it was basiclly appropriate for a pre Phase A program. One that hasn't any detailed plans. You won't have usable high quality cost estimate data until the next milestone which would probably be this time next year, once the contractor proposals, contractors put on contract and other involved parties input their detailed costing data for the archetecture has all been submitted to NASA.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #35 on: 08/23/2011 10:54 PM »
BTW that means it will cost nearly $1B to find out what the SLS will really cost, what the schedule will be and what the technical design to specs/performance targets will be.

We have ball park info now. But just how far inside the park or even if they actual are inside the park we do not know.

Offline Joris

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #36 on: 08/23/2011 11:02 PM »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

This says enough for me:

Quote
Recommendation: The ICA Team recommends that HEO/ESD use the occasion of a selection of a new
SLS architecture
to establish a common practice across Programs for generating cost and schedule
estimates; establish documentation standards for BOEs; and create and disseminate BOE, cost, and
schedule estimate templates to Programs.
JIMO would have been the first proper spaceship.

Offline robertross

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #37 on: 08/23/2011 11:23 PM »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Might be, or a way to cast doubt on what NASA has provided to give congress enough doubt to force a delay by having NASA produce more tangible information to reviewed by them (BAH) and/or another party.

BAH comment about the SLS data is that it was basiclly appropriate for a pre Phase A program.
except they say that it is useful for 'trade studies':

"None of the estimates reviewed by the ICA Team support establishment of long-term budgets or detailed baselines consistent with NPR 7120.5 requirements. They are, however, reasonable AoA estimates appropriate for supporting trade studies and comparative analyses."

Quote
One that hasn't any detailed plans. You won't have usable high quality cost estimate data until the next milestone which would probably be this time next year, once the contractor proposals, contractors put on contract and other involved parties input their detailed costing data for the archetecture has all been submitted to NASA.

That's right, no detailed plans. I can't help but read their comment (see above) and think that they are offering more time (for NASA, congress) to think really hard if they might look at other alternatives (be it the launch vehicle, the destinations, or the 'non-plan').
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #38 on: 08/23/2011 11:26 PM »
So letís seeÖ NASA gets a ďCĒ not for lack of effort, but for lack of interestÖ
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 12:18 AM by Rocket Science »
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Offline yg1968

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #39 on: 08/24/2011 01:59 AM »
This part of the conclusion doesn't sound too good:

Quote
Due to unjustified, sometimes substantial, assumed future cost savings; the ICA Team views each Programís estimate as optimistic. Reserve levels were not based on a quantitative risk analysis and do not cover each Programís Protect Scenario. Furthermore, each Protect Scenario excludes estimating uncertainty and unknown-unknown risks, which history indicates are major sources of cost growth on programs. Due to procurement of items still in development and large cost risks in the out years, NASA cannot have full confidence in the estimates for long-term planning.

I wonder if this means that the 2021 date for the first crewed flight of SLS and MPCV is optimistic?
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 08:40 PM by yg1968 »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #40 on: 08/24/2011 02:19 AM »
This part of the conclusion doesn't sound too good:

Quote
Due to unjustified, sometimes substantial, assumed future cost savings; the ICA Team views each Programís estimate as optimistic. Reserve levels were not based on a quantitative risk analysis and do not cover each Programís Protect Scenario. Furthermore, each Protect Scenario excludes estimating uncertainty and unknown-unknown risks, which history indicates are major sources of cost growth on programs. Due to procurement of items still in development and large cost risks in the out years, NASA cannot have full confidence in the estimates for long-term planning.

I wonder if this mean that the 2021 date for the first crewed flight of SLS and MPCV is optimitic?

I think it means that the first flight of SLS and uncrewed MPCV NET Dec 2017 is optimistic, let alone crewed MPCV and SLS.

Offline JohnF

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #41 on: 08/24/2011 02:40 AM »
This BAH Summary is a bunch of pure baloney top to bottom, the administration is in full delay, stall, slow roll this thing no matter what it takes trying to kill it, its very obvious now, somehow congress and the senate need to step in and say enough of this crap build the thing and get on with going somewhere, moon, asteroid, Mars, wherever !
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 02:42 AM by JohnF »

Offline neilh

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #42 on: 08/24/2011 03:22 AM »
This BAH Summary is a bunch of pure baloney top to bottom, the administration is in full delay, stall, slow roll this thing no matter what it takes trying to kill it, its very obvious now, somehow congress and the senate need to step in and say enough of this crap build the thing and get on with going somewhere, moon, asteroid, Mars, wherever !

Could you elaborate on the logic behind your opinion?
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #43 on: 08/24/2011 08:53 AM »
IIRC There's enough in *this* years appropriations to get started on the next stage of design.

It's a *green* light ladies and gentlemen.

They are warning people that NASA's cost & schedule estimating processes need tightening up for the *next* stage.

BTW How many consultant reports has anyone *ever* seen whose conclusions said roughly "You're absolutely correct. We have *no* quibbles with what you propose or *how* you plan to do it. All i's have been dotted and all t's crossed. Proceed with all possible speed."

This is a *good* thing.
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 04:18 PM by john smith 19 »
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Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #44 on: 08/24/2011 12:02 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

Offline apace

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #45 on: 08/24/2011 12:07 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

Any hints if timeframe for SLS has changed?

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #46 on: 08/24/2011 12:18 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

Any hints if timeframe for SLS has changed?

Working on that as that'll clearly by the key. We did get a L2 presentation with a big milestone schedule showing SLS 90 day final report in NOVEMBER (which isn't good), so the key will be pushing that way to the left.

But yeah, getting positives over this assessment, after initially there were fears this wouldn't be the case.

Offline apace

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #47 on: 08/24/2011 12:19 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

Any hints if timeframe for SLS has changed?

Working on that as that'll clearly by the key. We did get a L2 presentation with a big milestone schedule showing SLS 90 day final report in NOVEMBER (which isn't good), so the key will be pushing that way to the left.

But yeah, getting positives over this assessment, after initially there were fears this wouldn't be the case.

Is there any political talk about what to do with SLS? Any promised money for missions?

Offline mmoulder

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #48 on: 08/24/2011 01:38 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

Is it true?  Finally???  Getting excited over here!   ;D

Offline Diagoras

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #49 on: 08/24/2011 02:28 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

Knowing many politicians myself, I understand completely their ability to convince themselves that only their opinions matter. The bubble that powerful men and women form around themselves can be impenetrable to thoughts and opinions that run counter to their desires.

In the end, however, reality always has the final say.
"Itís the typical binary world of 'NASA is great' or 'cancel the space program,' with no nuance or understanding of the underlying issues and pathologies of the space industrial complex."

Offline Namechange User

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #50 on: 08/24/2011 02:34 PM »
Knowing many politicians myself, I understand completely their ability to convince themselves that only their opinions matter. The bubble that powerful men and women form around themselves can be impenetrable to thoughts and opinions that run counter to their desires.

In the end, however, reality always has the final say.

Ahhh.  So not having seen the report and but a short, simple "executive summary", that you may or may have not read and understood, you are prepared to totally dismiss the full report claiming people instead are living in a "bubble" that is impenetrable to thoughts and opinions (yours and other arm-wavers on the internet most likely) and that everyone is wrong?

Fascinating......
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 02:40 PM by OV-106 »
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline Diagoras

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #51 on: 08/24/2011 02:41 PM »
Knowing many politicians myself, I understand completely their ability to convince themselves that only their opinions matter. The bubble that powerful men and women form around themselves can be impenetrable to thoughts and opinions that run counter to their desires.

In the end, however, reality always has the final say.

Ahhh.  So not having seen the report and but a short, simple "executive summary", you are prepared to totally dismiss it claiming people instead are living in a "bubble" that is impenetrable to thoughts and opinions (yours and other arm-wavers on the internet most likely) and that everyone is wrong?

Fascinating......

OV, your mystical and pseudo-magical ability to construct from the simplest of phrases a full-scale understanding of an individual's position truly is impressive. A mere mortal, like myself, would note that I never dismissed the report or alleged that "everyone is wrong", but was merely reacting unfavorably to the notion that the people who express an opinion matter more than the opinion itself (followed by a careful warning that reality doesn't care if you matter or not, it cares if you deliver).

Honestly, I am left amazed at your ability to take that simple statement and acutely derive that I am furiously denouncing all who disagree with me and my fellow arm-wavers. I hope you only use this power for good, perhaps as a sort of super-psychiatrist who can analyze patient's woes with the merest glance.
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 04:09 PM by Diagoras »
"Itís the typical binary world of 'NASA is great' or 'cancel the space program,' with no nuance or understanding of the underlying issues and pathologies of the space industrial complex."

Offline john smith 19

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #52 on: 08/24/2011 04:32 PM »
BTW that means it will cost nearly $1B to find out what the SLS will really cost, what the schedule will be and what the technical design to specs/performance targets will be.

We have ball park info now. But just how far inside the park or even if they actual are inside the park we do not know.

But IIRC there's enough cash in this years NASA budget to move things on to the next level, which I guess is the outcome most people here would want.

After that I guess it depends on how well NASA synchronizes the budgets of the 3 programmes, unpicks capital from overhead spending to keep spending in any one year reasonable and of course how well Congress appropriations match out year funding promises.

But whose agreement is still needed to actually *start* things moving?

BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #53 on: 08/24/2011 07:23 PM »
BTW that means it will cost nearly $1B to find out what the SLS will really cost, what the schedule will be and what the technical design to specs/performance targets will be.

We have ball park info now. But just how far inside the park or even if they actual are inside the park we do not know.

But IIRC there's enough cash in this years NASA budget to move things on to the next level, which I guess is the outcome most people here would want.

After that I guess it depends on how well NASA synchronizes the budgets of the 3 programmes, unpicks capital from overhead spending to keep spending in any one year reasonable and of course how well Congress appropriations match out year funding promises.

But whose agreement is still needed to actually *start* things moving?



There has been quite a bit of "pre-positioned" items like contract mods, RFP's etc. So all that is needed is for the floodgates to be opened. Some of the 21CGS has already started. HQ NASA holds the key to the floodgates and ultimately the White House. Congress is only partially involved if NASA wants to see the SLS in the 2012 appropriations.

Offline yg1968

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #54 on: 08/24/2011 08:49 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

I am not sure that there is more than one way of reading the summary of the report. The conclusion is very clear. The 3 to 5 years estimates for SLS/MPCV and the 21st century complex are realistic. But the estimates beyond that period are overly optimistic as they are counting on cost reductions that may not happen and they do not take into account unknown-unknown risks.

I am assuming that the study was based on the FY 2012 Budget numbers since that is what Bolden said would be done at the House hearing.
« Last Edit: 08/25/2011 03:07 AM by yg1968 »

Offline baldusi

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #55 on: 08/24/2011 10:02 PM »
Seems a lot of you have read it how you wanted to read it. That's understandable, and it really doesn't matter.

How NASA and the lawmakers read it is important. And guess what, it's being seen as a big boost.

Should get a SLS announcement real soon now.

(I know that's going to get a "say whaaaaaaaaaat!" from some of you, but that's what I'm getting told from people who's opinion does matter).

It might also happen that the full report had a lot more information than the summary. Or that all what the Congressmen wanted to know was how credible this was. Or may be they actually expected overruns and just want something that avoid JWST/Cxt nightmare. I guess that the next 3 to 5 years means that any budget problems won't be a problem for the next electoral mandate, which is quite important in politics.
Personally, I love to see the K21 and Orion project. The SLS would be nice. Most people advocate for a top to bottom approach. I.e. state the requirements (where, when, for how much, etc.) and then build the to specifications. This clearly is not that strategy. You might like to develop "enabler" technologies, and then see what can you achieve. But then I would have liked to see a complete infrastructure plan. Want a big LV? You also need oversized factories, transport lines, environmental test chamber, vibration test stands, anechoic chambers, etc. Most of that is around there. But not as a national strategy, something where you propose that every project uses it. Something like ATLAS, communication sats with 40m reflectors, 30m centrifuges, etc. I'm sure that DoD would love to have the capabilities. But then you'd have to have a significant budget. So SLS isn't that approach either.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #56 on: 08/24/2011 11:52 PM »
Senator Hutchison statement on BAH and the Progress failure:

http://hutchison.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=746

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #57 on: 08/25/2011 12:18 AM »
It might also happen that the full report had a lot more information than the summary. Or that all what the Congressmen wanted to know was how credible this was. Or may be they actually expected overruns and just want something that avoid JWST/Cxt nightmare. I guess that the next 3 to 5 years means that any budget problems won't be a problem for the next electoral mandate, which is quite important in politics.
In reading the JWST investigation on why it was overrunning its original budget, the same initial conditions that caused JWST to be the way it is SLS is also possibly inline for a repeat performance: a constrained optimistic budget with insufficient reserves and the mindset that the budget is something that cannot be changed therefore the only option is to delay performing tasks to control current year costs. Hopefully NASA HQ has learned from JWST and Cxt.
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/499224main_JWST-ICRP_Report-FINAL.pdf

Quote
Want a big LV? You also need oversized factories, transport lines, environmental test chamber, vibration test stands, anechoic chambers, etc. Most of that is around there. But not as a national strategy, something where you propose that every project uses it. Something like ATLAS, communication sats with 40m reflectors, 30m centrifuges, etc. I'm sure that DoD would love to have the capabilities. But then you'd have to have a significant budget. So SLS isn't that approach either.

With a cheap LV you can accomplish most of what those facilities do by just having more test flights. Actual flight is still the best test chamber. If it costs $500M to build and maintain a large test chamber but only $150M to fly a test flight and both give adequate test data, which would you choose?

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