OPSEK Question

[fregate]

Bart, I suspect that somebody tried to use a trial balloon (aka feeler) - concept that came from diplomacy and meteorology  

[Bob Shaw]

The obvious answer to Russia's will-we or won't-we policy making is to abandon the current ISS project and instead to join a second ISS with China and India. Russia has a great deal to bring to that particular party, and not much to the (old) ISS. This fits well with the general policy (even in Soviet times) of treating their space stations as international projects, a full decade before the US managed such a policy commitment (apart from the excrutiatingly drawn out discussions with ESA over SpaceLab and the Polar Flier etc). And, of course, there's actually little doubt that Mir was indeed the first International Space Station...

[Phillip Clark]

NASA essentially forced the Russians into ditching the Mir Complex, even though the Russians were hoping to finance missions to both The Zarya Complex (aka ISS) and the Mir Complex.

So, if the Russians pull out of The Zarya Complex and leave NASA holding the baby then it will be rather poetic justice.

[savuporo]

Interfax quotes a source within the Russian Space Agency as saying that today's report in Kommersant is wrong and that Russia is not planning to assemble its own space station between 2017 and 2019.

One aspect to remember here is that "Russia" is not one single person, speaking in unison ( as much as batja wants it, there is still dissent )
They have their own fiefdoms within the industry all airing their own ideas and plans and proposals, which at any given time will likely diverge from official policy but sometimes also become the policy.

EDIT: but in this case, Kommersant article is clearly nuts. The "remote observation" part is sort of the dead giveaway.

[Danderman]

NASA essentially forced the Russians into ditching the Mir Complex, even though the Russians were hoping to finance missions to both The Zarya Complex (aka ISS) and the Mir Complex.

So, if the Russians pull out of The Zarya Complex and leave NASA holding the baby then it will be rather poetic justice.

No chance. Russia does not have the funds to operate its own space station.

Either Russia stays with ISS or ends its station program.

[Prober]

NASA essentially forced the Russians into ditching the Mir Complex, even though the Russians were hoping to finance missions to both The Zarya Complex (aka ISS) and the Mir Complex.

So, if the Russians pull out of The Zarya Complex and leave NASA holding the baby then it will be rather poetic justice.

No chance. Russia does not have the funds to operate its own space station.

Either Russia stays with ISS or ends its station program.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26240.msg1299269#msg1299269

this is closer, only don't see India yet in the picture.

Just start thinking the MLM, and ISS components not as yet launched with the Chinese parts not as yet launched and you have a workable station.
 

[Danderman]

You are ignoring the technical issues. Russia's station program requires an orbit of at least 51 degrees, preferably 65 degrees inclination. Neither China nor India want to lose that much performance in developing a new station.

Moreover, China's program is not very robust, and India's is almost non-existent, so there is an element of a "wish upon a wish" there.

Lastly, the US could always offer these two nations a better deal.

[fregate]

Phillip, AFAIK Zarya module is build by Russians but owned by Boeing

[B. Hendrickx]

Roskosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko confirmed today that Russia is considering to assemble a "high-latitude" space station using the three Russian modules currently being prepared for launch to the ISS. He said that if Russia decides not to extend its participation in ISS beyond 2020, it would make no sense to launch the remaining Russian modules to ISS. Ostapenko reportedly described the Russian space station as a stepping stone to Russia's manned lunar program. The new space station may be included in Russia's Federal Space Program (FSP) for 2016-2025.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647047
http://ria.ru/space/20141215/1038293602.htm

Ostapenko also said today that the FSP 2016-2025 may be put forward to the government later than planned.  He attributes the delay to the need to make adjustments to plans for Russia's participation in the ISS as well as to the country's space science projects. ITAR-TASS quotes another source as saying that approval of the FSP will be delayed about half a year (to the late spring or early summer next year rather than before the end of this year as originally planned). The source links the decision both to Russia's financial crisis and the need to make final changes to the FSP. Ostapenko denied today that the financial crisis will have an impact on Roskosmos' budget, stressing there are no plans to cancel or cut back any projects.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647033

According to the Kommersant newspaper, vice premier Dmitriy Rogozin also put forward a plan to deploy a Russian national space station at a meeting of top space program officials at the Baikonur cosmodrome in late November following the launch of Soyuz TMA-15M. He is expected to convene a "council of chief designers" shortly to discuss the plan and has also ordered Roskosmos to work out the details (including financial ones) and present them to the government. He is also reported to have said at the meeting that the future of Russia's piloted space program is no longer in the hands of the industry, but has become a political matter. According to Kommersant, Russia will make a final decision on its future role in the ISS before the end of the year.

http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/2618229

[Danderman]

Without a real hab module, this is a very questionable design.

The maximum diameter of MLM is 2.9 meters (external) making it basically a tunnel inside. The Node is 3.3 meters, but is not a place where the crew is going to spend a lot of time.

That means that the inflatable section has to be the major crew station, and I don't see Russia betting their manned space program on an inflatable any time soon.

[Prober]

Roskosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko confirmed today that Russia is considering to assemble a "high-latitude" space station using the three Russian modules currently being prepared for launch to the ISS. He said that if Russia decides not to extend its participation in ISS beyond 2020, it would make no sense to launch the remaining Russian modules to ISS. Ostapenko reportedly described the Russian space station as a stepping stone to Russia's manned lunar program. The new space station may be included in Russia's Federal Space Program (FSP) for 2016-2025.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647047
http://ria.ru/space/20141215/1038293602.htm

Ostapenko also said today that the FSP 2016-2025 may be put forward to the government later than planned.  He attributes the delay to the need to make adjustments to plans for Russia's participation in the ISS as well as to the country's space science projects. ITAR-TASS quotes another source as saying that approval of the FSP will be delayed about half a year (to the late spring or early summer next year rather than before the end of this year as originally planned). The source links the decision both to Russia's financial crisis and the need to make final changes to the FSP. Ostapenko denied today that the financial crisis will have an impact on Roskosmos' budget, stressing there are no plans to cancel or cut back any projects.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647033

According to the Kommersant newspaper, vice premier Dmitriy Rogozin also put forward a plan to deploy a Russian national space station at a meeting of top space program officials at the Baikonur cosmodrome in late November following the launch of Soyuz TMA-15M. He is expected to convene a "council of chief designers" shortly to discuss the plan and has also ordered Roskosmos to work out the details (including financial ones) and present them to the government. He is also reported to have said at the meeting that the future of Russia's piloted space program is no longer in the hands of the industry, but has become a political matter. According to Kommersant, Russia will make a final decision on its future role in the ISS before the end of the year.

http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/2618229

Think I should prepare a new crystal ball as a holiday gift for Woods170, as his is broken beyond repair 

[savuporo]

Without a real hab module, this is a very questionable design.

The maximum diameter of MLM is 2.9 meters (external) making it basically a tunnel inside. The Node is 3.3 meters, but is not a place where the crew is going to spend a lot of time.

That means that the inflatable section has to be the major crew station, and I don't see Russia betting their manned space program on an inflatable any time soon.

From what i have read about OPSEK is that it is not aimed to become a comfortable orbital habitat for long-term research and science. It is aimed to become a staging post for more complex sorties, spacecraft checkout and potentially assembly. So the crew comfort might be not the top priority.

[fregate]

Without a real hab module, this is a very questionable design.

The maximum diameter of MLM is 2.9 meters (external) making it basically a tunnel inside. The Node is 3.3 meters, but is not a place where the crew is going to spend a lot of time.

That means that the inflatable section has to be the major crew station, and I don't see Russia betting their manned space program on an inflatable any time soon.

From what i have read about OPSEK is that it is not aimed to become a comfortable orbital habitat for long-term research and science. It is aimed to become a staging post for more complex sorties, spacecraft checkout and potentially assembly. So the crew comfort might be not the top priority.

"The maximum diameter of MLM is 2.9 meters (external)" = are you sure? Even Salyut modules had 4.1 metres!

All info about OPSEK is here. In 2009 nobody took it's announcement seriously.
The good news - a brand new Russian national station would have at least one docking unit in a node module that would be compatible with Orion docking unit. 

[Danderman]

Without a real hab module, this is a very questionable design.

The maximum diameter of MLM is 2.9 meters (external) making it basically a tunnel inside. The Node is 3.3 meters, but is not a place where the crew is going to spend a lot of time.

That means that the inflatable section has to be the major crew station, and I don't see Russia betting their manned space program on an inflatable any time soon.

From what i have read about OPSEK is that it is not aimed to become a comfortable orbital habitat for long-term research and science. It is aimed to become a staging post for more complex sorties, spacecraft checkout and potentially assembly. So the crew comfort might be not the top priority.

"The maximum diameter of MLM is 2.9 meters (external)" = are you sure? Even Salyut modules had 4.1 metres!

All info about OPSEK is here. In 2009 nobody took it's announcement seriously.
 

MLM is based on the FGB, which is a 2.9 meter diameter structure, except for a short frustrum, which does extend out to 4.1 meters at the base.  But basically, the interior is a tunnel.

[woods170]

Moreover, China's program is not very robust,

The CNSA representative we currently have over here as a guest just had a very good laugh over your post.

Lastly, the US could always offer these two nations a better deal.

Oh really? So far the US has declined to ever invite either India, let alone, China, to join ISS. And Russia is far from eager to go beyond 2020 on ISS.

No, China will stay the course and do it's own thing. Don't see them joining the Russians in a combined station. And India is very eager to prove itself. With China as their example they will eventually do their own station.

[woods170]

Think I should prepare a new crystal ball as a holiday gift for Woods170, as his is broken beyond repair 

You did notice the part stating that Russia will honor it's ISS obligations to 2020. I don't need mentioning that the only ISS partner committing to 2024 is the USA. Neither ESA, nor Japan, or Russia, has committed to 2024, only 2020 at best. So, currently, EOM for ISS is still 2020.

Your crystal ball is the one that is broken. It was you claiming that Russia was ready to get out of ISS asap thanks to the Ukraine crisis. Turns out they will be on ISS for another 5 years at least (as I pointed out to you earlier). Thus no need for your ATV emergency rescue scenario (as I pointed out to you earlier). ISS is save until 2020. After that, all options are open (as I pointed out to you earlier).

Barring Putin doing something really stupid (way more stupid than what he's doing in Ukraine now) the ISS will be harboring folks from ESA, USA, Japan, Brazil AND Russia until 2020. But Putin doing something really stupid won't happen. Putin may be a royal pain in the behind, but he's also smart enough to recognize that throwing Russia back to the 1990's chaos over a land-dispute is simply not worth it.

[Prober]

Think I should prepare a new crystal ball as a holiday gift for Woods170, as his is broken beyond repair 

You did notice the part stating that Russia will honor it's ISS obligations to 2020. I don't need mentioning that the only ISS partner committing to 2024 is the USA. Neither ESA, nor Japan, or Russia, has committed to 2024, only 2020 at best. So, currently, EOM for ISS is still 2020.

Your crystal ball is the one that is broken. It was you claiming that Russia was ready to get out of ISS asap thanks to the Ukraine crisis. Turns out they will be on ISS for another 5 years at least (as I pointed out to you earlier). Thus no need for your ATV emergency rescue scenario (as I pointed out to you earlier). ISS is save until 2020. After that, all options are open (as I pointed out to you earlier).

Barring Putin doing something really stupid (way more stupid than what he's doing in Ukraine now) the ISS will be harboring folks from ESA, USA, Japan, Brazil AND Russia until 2020. But Putin doing something really stupid won't happen. Putin may be a royal pain in the behind, but he's also smart enough to recognize that throwing Russia back to the 1990's chaos over a land-dispute is simply not worth it.

excuse me...but my crystal ball was correct....it placed this info correctly before it hit any news.  Stop looking at paper agreements, as the commitments are easy break, just like your crystal ball.

Roskosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko confirmed today that Russia is considering to assemble a "high-latitude" space station using the three Russian modules currently being prepared for launch to the ISS. He said that if Russia decides not to extend its participation in ISS beyond 2020, it would make no sense to launch the remaining Russian modules to ISS. Ostapenko reportedly described the Russian space station as a stepping stone to Russia's manned lunar program. The new space station may be included in Russia's Federal Space Program (FSP) for 2016-2025.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647047
http://ria.ru/space/20141215/1038293602.htm

[woods170]

excuse me...but my crystal ball was correct....it placed this info correctly before it hit any news.  Stop looking at paper agreements, as the commitments are easy break, just like your crystal ball.

Roskosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko confirmed today that Russia is considering to assemble a "high-latitude" space station using the three Russian modules currently being prepared for launch to the ISS. He said that if Russia decides not to extend its participation in ISS beyond 2020, it would make no sense to launch the remaining Russian modules to ISS. Ostapenko reportedly described the Russian space station as a stepping stone to Russia's manned lunar program. The new space station may be included in Russia's Federal Space Program (FSP) for 2016-2025.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647047
http://ria.ru/space/20141215/1038293602.htm

II'm referring to our discussion about a scenario where Russia would leave ISS almost immediately as a result of worsening USA - Russia relationship. It is that scenario that is not coming to reality despite you urging ESA to consider keeping ATV-5 at ISS indefinitely to provide emergency orbit-raising capacity in case Russia would bug out asap. Your crystal ball panicked at the time and came up with a silly scenario. And that is now confirmed by the Roscosmos statement that they will honor their ISS obligations until 2020.
Your failure to acknowledge this epic fail of your crystal ball is much telling.

And mind you: the current Russian obligations to ISS, to 2020, have never included adding MLM and Node Module. Those have always been optional. The obligations consist (amongst others) of continued cargo delivery thru Progress, continued crew delivery on Soyuz, continued orbit maintenance thru propulsion and continued station housekeeping by providing the services of the existing (and present) Russian segment.

You see, the Russians are smart cookies. Had they included MLM and node module as obligated elements of the RS, then they never would have been able to plan OPSEK around those modules. From the very beginning of OPSEK, the idea was that MLM and node module would possibly NOT go to ISS.
That is also the reason why the agreement between ESA and Roscosmos on the use of the ERA robotic arm is not on getting ERA to ISS, but on launching ERA to orbit, mounted on MLM. That agreement can be honored even when MLM does not go to ISS, but becomes the first building block of OPSEK.

Oh, btw. I don't have a crystal ball. I use something much better: common sense, and well documented facts. You should try it sometime. It will seriously improve your predicting capabilities.

[Prober]

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1647047
http://ria.ru/space/20141215/1038293602.htm

Oh, btw. I don't have a crystal ball. I use something much better: common sense, and well documented facts. You should try it sometime. It will seriously improve your predicting capabilities.

Some interesting info in your last post however your faith in "paper" agreements in light of world events (common sense,documented facts) is misguided in European history, and the current big picture.

btw: a proper crystal ball digests paths, time is fluid, it doesn't need to predict.   

[fregate]

@woods170 Ostapenko did not said that. Final decision would be made BEFORE end of March 2015 - so far Roskosmos keeps all options open