Author Topic: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize  (Read 35128 times)

Offline Moe Grills

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 780
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #40 on: 10/09/2011 09:34 pm »
  Of course it's John Carmack's money to keep or to give away, and
you have no say in his decision.

 But I would ask, who has the nerve here to say (perhaps hypothetically) that the rocket only flew to over 90,000 feet, instead of over 100k?
Because that is the SILENT insinuation that is brewing here.
And I disapprove!
  That small group of amateurs that pulled this off SHOULD BE APPLAUDED
BY YOU ALL!!!


It's not like private groups and amateurs launch rockets to those altitudes
every day, or even every month
It's been quite a  few years since a feat of similar magnitude has been achieved by a group so small. 

Offline as58

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 835
  • Liked: 300
  • Likes Given: 186
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #41 on: 10/09/2011 11:09 pm »
I don't think anyone is insinuating that the rocket didn't fly to 100k feet. But the fact is that the rules specifically require a GPS track showing the altitude and there is no provision in the rules for proving in some other way that the 100k limit was reached.

Of course John Carmack is free to bend the rules if he wants to, as it is his prize after all.

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39358
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25386
  • Likes Given: 12163
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #42 on: 10/10/2011 12:43 am »
As I said, I remain highly skeptical that curvature measurements can be made that precise. If onboard video is really all one has to work with, my approach would be to measure the angular size of ground features directly below and comparing with simulations for various altitudes. Much more sensitive to altitude than fuzzy horizon curvature.
Hmmm, that is perhaps a better approach. Still, I think getting an estimate +/- 20% of altitude is feasible. (Though your method may be better... it'd also be a little more complicated since you are proving you're x meters away from feature A, but that's not enough... you also have to show you're y meters from feature B and probably z meters from feature C for good measure... all at about the same time.)

Quote
But above all, probably integrating accelerometer data and trying to show that in the worst case of it overestimating acceleration and underestimating air drag deceleration would still produce over 100,000 ft. Their accelerometer data quality looks good so the only question is if one accepts it as legitimate.
Accelerometer data can be screwed up by vibration, bias, etc. Since you're integrating a very small number (twice, actually...), a tiny amount of bias can add up to a huge difference in altitude.

I think it's pretty wise to insist on a GPS lock. After all, it's part of the prize on purpose, since finding out what GPS receivers work good (and which don't) for this application is part of the fruit of this prize. Remember, some GPS units have mechanical elements (even a piezo crystal is partly mechanical), which could be affected by the enormous vibrations of launch. Figuring out what GPS units can maintain a lock, or quickly reacquire a lock at apogee, would be a pretty excellent result of this prize for the broader amateur/experimental rocketry community, especially since a detailed report on the launch is part of the prize as well.

We already know you can launch stuff to 100,000 feet (and recover). Proving you can do ALL those things (including unambiguous GPS lock) while putting your project under the scrutiny of the community (via the report) is much more difficult and is a worthy prize.

It should be noted that many other subscribers to the arocket mailing list pledged money towards the prize besides just Carmack.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline ugordan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8554
    • My mainly Cassini image gallery
  • Liked: 3624
  • Likes Given: 774
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #43 on: 10/10/2011 08:20 am »
As I said, I remain highly skeptical that curvature measurements can be made that precise. If onboard video is really all one has to work with, my approach would be to measure the angular size of ground features directly below and comparing with simulations for various altitudes. Much more sensitive to altitude than fuzzy horizon curvature.
Hmmm, that is perhaps a better approach. Still, I think getting an estimate +/- 20% of altitude is feasible.

Think about it, in this particular case you're trying to determine the altitude to a precision within 0.1% of the radius of that sphere.

(Though your method may be better... it'd also be a little more complicated since you are proving you're x meters away from feature A, but that's not enough... you also have to show you're y meters from feature B and probably z meters from feature C for good measure... all at about the same time.)

Which can be "easily" done by reprojecting the landscape below to different projections with different altitude and comparing to the one the camera sees (linearized, of course) and using a best fit approach.

The size of features below is very sensitive to altitude difference, the curvature of the horizon much less so (when delta h << R).

Quote
But above all, probably integrating accelerometer data and trying to show that in the worst case of it overestimating acceleration and underestimating air drag deceleration would still produce over 100,000 ft. Their accelerometer data quality looks good so the only question is if one accepts it as legitimate.
Accelerometer data can be screwed up by vibration, bias, etc. Since you're integrating a very small number (twice, actually...), a tiny amount of bias can add up to a huge difference in altitude.

15G acceleration is not really a small number. I said the *worst case* scenario should be used where it is assumed all accelerometer outputs are overestimates of actual acceleration due to measurement artifacts. There are finite error bars to any measurement.
« Last Edit: 10/10/2011 08:22 am by ugordan »

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39358
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25386
  • Likes Given: 12163
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #44 on: 10/10/2011 03:47 pm »
...
(Though your method may be better... it'd also be a little more complicated since you are proving you're x meters away from feature A, but that's not enough... you also have to show you're y meters from feature B and probably z meters from feature C for good measure... all at about the same time.)

Which can be "easily" done by reprojecting the landscape below to different projections with different altitude and comparing to the one the camera sees (linearized, of course) and using a best fit approach.

The size of features below is very sensitive to altitude difference, the curvature of the horizon much less so (when delta h << R).
Alright, you've sold me.

Quote
Quote
But above all, probably integrating accelerometer data and trying to show that in the worst case of it overestimating acceleration and underestimating air drag deceleration would still produce over 100,000 ft. Their accelerometer data quality looks good so the only question is if one accepts it as legitimate.
Accelerometer data can be screwed up by vibration, bias, etc. Since you're integrating a very small number (twice, actually...), a tiny amount of bias can add up to a huge difference in altitude.

15G acceleration is not really a small number. I said the *worst case* scenario should be used where it is assumed all accelerometer outputs are overestimates of actual acceleration due to measurement artifacts. There are finite error bars to any measurement.
The error in (double-)integrating the acceleration data can be and has been +100% in altitude in at least one case which had at least a relatively okay setup, according to a post on arocket (which I probably shouldn't repost without permission just as a matter of principle, though I could probably PM you it).
« Last Edit: 10/10/2011 03:48 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Jason1701

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2232
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #45 on: 11/30/2011 12:43 am »
Does anyone know if any attempts have been made since the beginning of October?

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1003
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #46 on: 06/29/2012 07:42 pm »
Recent update on this from aRocket, prize is still available, most announced attempts seem to be aiming for launching at BALLS in September. I wonder what will happen if there are multiple successful ones ? ( highly doubt that's likely though )

I think someone should simply reinstate CATS prize with perhaps Kickstarter funding at some point.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1003
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #47 on: 09/14/2012 02:54 pm »
ARocket has a claim to a successful prize attempt, video here:


Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9266
  • Australia
  • Liked: 4489
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #48 on: 09/14/2012 11:42 pm »
Just FYI: they still have to write it up and be judged by John before they can claim the prize.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10300
  • Liked: 706
  • Likes Given: 727
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #49 on: 09/17/2012 04:07 pm »
Recent update on this from aRocket, prize is still available, most announced attempts seem to be aiming for launching at BALLS in September. I wonder what will happen if there are multiple successful ones ? ( highly doubt that's likely though )

I think someone should simply reinstate CATS prize with perhaps Kickstarter funding at some point.

200 kilometers is very high for an "amateur" rocket, although a "pro" outfit could probably pull it off for a few hundred thousand dollars in DDT&E.

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9266
  • Australia
  • Liked: 4489
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #50 on: 09/18/2012 01:40 am »
Drop the reusability requirements and you'll probably get a lot more interest.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Ben

  • Member
  • Posts: 31
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #51 on: 09/18/2012 03:52 am »
The CATS prize didn't require reusability or even recovery. Getting something back from that altitude is as significant a problem as getting it there in the first place; the heating is comparable to an orbital reentry.

But just requiring the up part doesn't do a lot toward furthering space access. The GPS log and the recovery were significant parts of the Carmack prize.
« Last Edit: 09/18/2012 03:54 am by Ben »

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9266
  • Australia
  • Liked: 4489
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #52 on: 09/18/2012 03:58 am »
What's the total impulse for this class of rocket?

Trying to get some comparison to more common high power rocketry.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Ben

  • Member
  • Posts: 31
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #53 on: 09/18/2012 04:26 am »
Carmack Prize are generally small to medium class 3 amateur, 10-100 klb*s. The winner, being two stage, was pretty small. 2kg to 200km could be done with a full class 3, i.e. 200,000 lb*s, if it's at all mass efficient. Stiga was full class 3, but not efficient, so it only made ~95km with a huge mass of recovery gear and fuel.

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9266
  • Australia
  • Liked: 4489
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #54 on: 09/18/2012 04:32 am »
For comparison, the biggest commercially available high-power rocket motor is 9204.8 lbf·s. So the low end of amateur really isn't that far from hpr..
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Ben

  • Member
  • Posts: 31
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #55 on: 09/18/2012 04:42 am »
The winner was commercial HPR, with a total impulse of the two motors of around 5000 lb*s. They were one of the smallest competitors.

They accomplished the extra feat of recovering two stages, when many have difficulty with one. Though the upper stage went significantly outside where it was supposed to.

Offline ClaytonBirchenough

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 777
  • ~ 1 AU
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 348
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #56 on: 01/12/2014 10:10 am »
I'm confused... did anyone win this prize? I read a lot about Qu8k but am aware they did not obtain a required GPS lock. Anyone win? Who?
Clayton Birchenough

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9266
  • Australia
  • Liked: 4489
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #57 on: 01/12/2014 07:59 pm »

See http://anewdomain.net/2013/05/20/carmack-prize-video-aeropac/

The winner's project page has disappeared by archive.org still has it:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130514184403/http://www.aeropac.org/100k/

It includes the text:

Quote
On September 11, 2012, a team of experienced hobbyists reached a milestone on the journey toward amateur space flight: a GPS documented flight to 104k’ AGL with full recovery on only 21000 N*s of propellant. This report reviews that project.

I think the announcement of John paying up was on the Armadillo website, which is also down now (it's like it's 1998 around here.)

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline ClaytonBirchenough

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 777
  • ~ 1 AU
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 348
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #58 on: 01/12/2014 08:23 pm »

See http://anewdomain.net/2013/05/20/carmack-prize-video-aeropac/

The winner's project page has disappeared by archive.org still has it:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130514184403/http://www.aeropac.org/100k/

It includes the text:

Quote
On September 11, 2012, a team of experienced hobbyists reached a milestone on the journey toward amateur space flight: a GPS documented flight to 104k’ AGL with full recovery on only 21000 N*s of propellant. This report reviews that project.

I think the announcement of John paying up was on the Armadillo website, which is also down now (it's like it's 1998 around here.)

Thank you.

It's quite astonishing how the Qu8k rocket got so much more attention and did not even win the prize!
Clayton Birchenough

Offline ClaytonBirchenough

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 777
  • ~ 1 AU
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 348
Re: The Carmack 100kft Micro Prize
« Reply #59 on: 01/12/2014 08:24 pm »
Anyone have AeroPac's flight report?
Clayton Birchenough

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0