Author Topic: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX  (Read 21317 times)

Offline Riley1066

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Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« on: 07/10/2011 04:02 am »
Just had a thought/question come to my mind ... assuming that both companies continue to operate as planned, which company will earn Elon Musk more money, Tesla Motors or SpaceX?
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #1 on: 07/11/2011 01:02 am »
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Offline Jason1701

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #2 on: 07/11/2011 01:52 am »
What are you talking about, Kevin? Musk's shares of Paypal were bought by eBay in October 2002.

My guess would be Tesla.

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #3 on: 07/11/2011 02:00 am »
I think it would be two hard to say, depends on what SpaceX turns into.

Telsa is already becoming a OEM manufacturer/Vehicle Manufacturer.  It would not surprise me if Telsa made as much off their sells of technology to Toyota/Daimler as they do off selling Roadsters.

If SpaceX continues to just sell rockets and rides on the Dragon I think that Tesla will be his larger personal check.  But if SpaceX starts offering to sell engines, avionics, tanks, etc I think SpaceX could become a baby Boeing over the next decade.

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Offline go4mars

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #4 on: 07/11/2011 02:51 am »
My prediction:  5 years from now, Elon's share of Tesla profits will be helping to finance SpaceX.  SpaceX income will be reinvested into technologies and capabilities that work toward the goal of making life multiplanetary (still largely even after IPO).   

Tesla Model S already has roughly 7000 deposits.  Model S cars should be coming off the line for sale next summer.  Then the model X by about 2014.  These will all sell well.  I suspect that their competition MAY beat them to the Bluestar (about 2016), but model S and model X sales should keep a lot of cash flowing into Elon's pockets via Tesla dividends. 

Maybe I'm wrong and he'll instead invest it into all-electric supersonic jet manufacturing, or pre-fab modular highway overpass-building, or fusion research.  But I suspect SpaceX will stay well-heeled on the back of a lucrative Tesla no matter what the launch market is doing, and no matter what obstacles/setbacks SpaceX runs into.     
« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 03:01 am by go4mars »
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Offline neilh

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #5 on: 07/11/2011 07:34 am »
Maybe I'm wrong and he'll instead invest it into all-electric supersonic jet manufacturing...

Heh, isn't that what Musk said to Tony Stark in Iron Man 2?
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Offline Dave G

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #6 on: 07/11/2011 11:42 am »
I don't think Tesla will ever make money.  They will continue to lead the charge for automobile electrification over the next few years, but in the end, people will still want cars that can use gasoline as a backup.  Musk has said he won't build a range extended car like the Chevy Volt.  That will be Tesla's downfall.  In the end, Toyota will buy Tesla and use their technology to make a range extended electric car.

I think SpaceX will continue to be profitable.  I believe there's plenty of pent up demand for low cost launchers.  And from a production point of view, the economics of building rockets is easier than cars.

Offline hyper_snyper

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #7 on: 07/11/2011 11:45 am »
...
Maybe I'm wrong and he'll instead invest it into all-electric supersonic jet manufacturing
...

This if off topic but I've heard this before and I don't understand what the hell an electric jet is.  How the hell to you get jet propulsion using only electricity?

Offline Dave G

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #8 on: 07/11/2011 01:47 pm »
This if off topic but I've heard this before and I don't understand what the hell an electric jet is.  How the hell to you get jet propulsion using only electricity?

This whole thread is off topic, but what the hell.

To be clear, Musk never said anything about an electric jet engine. 

He has talked about a supersonic electric plane, but he's always clear that this isn't something he's actively pursuing.  He says the electric engine technology is already here, but it may be quite a while before batteries can store enough energy give an electric plane any reasonable range.

He's also mentioned that he's interested in controlled fusion, but again, these are just things that interest him, not things he works on.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 01:56 pm by Dave G »

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #9 on: 07/11/2011 02:25 pm »
What are you talking about, Kevin? Musk's shares of Paypal were bought by eBay in October 2002.

My guess would be Tesla.

Elon Musk will make his Billions off Tesla the same way he made his fortune off PayPal, by selling the company to another manufacturer.

Didn't Tesla recently announce that they are cancelling production of the only model that's actually in production so they could focus on the next model ? Do they need the resources of a larger corporation ?

Since the next model is being built in a jointly operated Toyota factory anyway, I assume he's just waiting for the right offer.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #10 on: 07/11/2011 02:47 pm »
Rather, Tesla owns the factory and manufacturing tools.  This is not a Tesla/Toyota JV.  On the other hand, Tesla has expressed some interest in manufacturing Toyota's electric RAV4 at the Tesla plant.

Offline Dave G

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #11 on: 07/11/2011 03:07 pm »
Didn't Tesla recently announce that they are cancelling production of the only model that's actually in production so they could focus on the next model ?
No. Tesla said they will stop taking orders for Roadster toward the end of August, and then continue to build the Roadster until those orders are all filled.

Do they need the resources of a larger corporation ?
Yes.  They do have investments from Daimler and Toyota, and both companies are customers for Tesla technology, but I'm doubtful this will be enough over the long term.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #12 on: 07/11/2011 03:31 pm »
Elon Musk will make his Billions off Tesla the same way he made his fortune off PayPal, by selling the company to another manufacturer.

Perhaps, but not until after Bluestar is into production (my guess).

Didn't Tesla recently announce that they are cancelling production of the only model that's actually in production so they could focus on the next model ?

Roadster 2 has been announced.

Do they need the resources of a larger corporation ?
No.  They do have some minor shareholders like Panasonic and Toyota, but that's not exactly a lot in the grand scheme of Tesla's market cap and financials.

Since the next model is being built in a jointly operated Toyota factory anyway
  Incorrect.  They BOUGHT most of the NUMMI facility in Freemont for $42 million.  It is the Tesla factory.  And I believe I read that the Tesla-powered Toyota vehicles are not made there.  Only the powertrains, which are then sold to Toyota. 
« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 04:23 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #13 on: 07/11/2011 03:46 pm »
Since the next model is being built in a jointly operated Toyota factory anyway
  Incorrect.  They BOUGHT most of the NUMMI facility in Freemont for $42 billion.  It is the Tesla factory.  And I believe I read that the Tesla-powered Toyota vehicles are not made there.  Only the powertrains, which are then sold to Toyota. 
$42 billion?  really?  That must be one hell of a facility.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 03:47 pm by Eric Hedman »

Offline go4mars

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #14 on: 07/11/2011 04:23 pm »
Since the next model is being built in a jointly operated Toyota factory anyway
  Incorrect.  They BOUGHT most of the NUMMI facility in Freemont for $42 billion.  It is the Tesla factory.  And I believe I read that the Tesla-powered Toyota vehicles are not made there.  Only the powertrains, which are then sold to Toyota. 
$42 billion?  really?  That must be one hell of a facility.

Sorry, I meant million.  Fast typing or something I guess.  I've fixed the original now.

But it is worth noting that it was a $3.5 billion dollar plant that they got on the cheap during the height of the economic crisis (part 1) for only $42 M.  Buying Gigabucks with Megabucks.

  http://www.edab.org/business_resources_incentives/pdf/NUMMI%20Plant%20Closure%20Impact%20and%20Res.pdf

« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 04:54 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #15 on: 07/11/2011 04:49 pm »
From this article :
http://venturebeat.com/2010/05/20/tesla-and-toyota-teaming-up-to-build-electric-cars-schwarzenegger-lets-slip/

The company’s deal with Toyota has three facets:

1. The joint development  of a brand new,sub- $30,000 electric car, that will contain Tesla’s unique powertrain design, with everything else built by Toyota;
2. The purchase of the NUMMI plant, where Tesla plans to manufacture both its Model S sedan due out in 2012, a new $30,000 Tesla-designed vehicle, and the more affordable jointly designed “third-generation” vehicle;
3. A $50 million investment from Toyota into Tesla when the company goes public, probably later this year.

There’s several pieces of huge news here. Let’s dissect each one of these points:

1. The new car: Tesla clearly realized that the Roadster and Model S weren’t going to cut it — not in a market where the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf are going to dominate at a lower price. Tesla would need its own sub-$30,000 car (which would sell for considerably less after likely rebates), in order to survive. But it couldn’t get its costs down on its own, so partnering with a major automaker seemed to be the best course of action. Toyota, which has had a decade’s headstart as the green car leader since the release of its hybrid Prius, was probably also shopping around for a bold, new play in the space to retain its throne.

The design of the car, which probably won’t be released today, will draw largely from an existing Toyota design, Musk says.

Also, it appears I just found a tax-credit that both Republicans and Democrats should be willing to eliminate, in the interest of deficit reduction. Why do people buying $50K - 100K cars need a $7500 tax credit ? Hey democrats, no more tax breaks for the rich. Hey republicans, those lefty green-wackos are busting the budget again.



Offline go4mars

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #16 on: 07/11/2011 04:53 pm »
2.  a new $30,000 Tesla-designed vehicle, and the more affordable jointly designed “third-generation” vehicle;

The operative word is AND.  Looks like Bluestar will be all-Tesla, AND there will be a cheaper JV car as well. 

I assume:
1st Gen = Roadster
2nd Gen = model S, model X
3rd Gen = Bluestar and a cheaper yet JV car.   
« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 04:57 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Jim

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #17 on: 07/11/2011 06:25 pm »
2.  a new $30,000 Tesla-designed vehicle, and the more affordable jointly designed “third-generation” vehicle;

The operative word is AND.  Looks like Bluestar will be all-Tesla, AND there will be a cheaper JV car as well. 

I assume:
1st Gen = Roadster
2nd Gen = model S, model X
3rd Gen = Bluestar and a cheaper yet JV car.   

Conjecture and assumptions. 

Offline Jim

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #18 on: 07/11/2011 06:37 pm »
Conjecture and assumptions. 

Mainly yes.  Which is why I labelled it as such. 

and so overtly optimistic that they are not valid

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Tesla Motors vs SpaceX
« Reply #19 on: 07/11/2011 11:06 pm »
This if off topic but I've heard this before and I don't understand what the hell an electric jet is.  How the hell to you get jet propulsion using only electricity?

This whole thread is off topic, but what the hell.

To be clear, Musk never said anything about an electric jet engine. 

He has talked about a supersonic electric plane, but he's always clear that this isn't something he's actively pursuing.  He says the electric engine technology is already here, but it may be quite a while before batteries can store enough energy give an electric plane any reasonable range.

He's also mentioned that he's interested in controlled fusion, but again, these are just things that interest him, not things he works on.

You probably could make an electric plane that has performance comparable to WWII era prop fighter with existing technology but the range would not be very good.
It would run out of charge in just minutes.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2011 11:08 pm by Patchouli »

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