Commercial Space: No Bucks, No Buck Rogers!

[Robotbeat]

What bothers me are the people here who assume that Bigelow is going to fly space stations on his own dime.

Do you have any hard evidence beyond your personal opinion that he won't?

As others have pointed out, there is at least circumstantial evidence supporting the theory that he might, give the dollar figure he has expressed a willingness to spend from his own pocket to get the business going.  I dunno if he will or won't, an assumptions given the lack of evidence one way or the other are premature, but there does seem to be at least a little stronger argument for the former than the latter.

Additionally, it should be pointed out that he already has orbited "space stations" on his own dime. They were subscale and unmanned, but they were pressurized.

I'm wouldn't even be confident to say he's got a 50/50 chance of launching an actual manned space station by himself, but it's not impossible.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

The Dnepr LV cost about $15-20M each so Bigelow has spent already spent $30-40M on launch services for the two Genesis. To get on the launch manifest for SpaceX takes more than a handshake. The "I am Serrious about a launch" down payment being up to 20% of total price or probably somewhere between $5 and $10M Bigelow had to pay SpaceX. The next payment would be at ~18 months out of 40% or ~$22M. So by beginning of 2013 its pay or slip time. If CCDev is moving too slow and won't be active by mid / late 2014 but a year or more later the Sundancer will slip out to 2015/2016.

[ChefPat]

If CCDev is moving too slow and won't be active by mid / late 2014 but a year or more later the Sundancer will slip out to 2015/2016.

I looks like Sundancer got the Axe.
CCDev is also looking more likely as the months go by. It's becoming a bit of a race, which has it's good & bad aspects.
Bigelow was quite clear at that ISDC Awards Dinner too. He said they'll have 2 BA-330's flight ready by the end of 2014.
If they're ready, as he says they'll be, & there's transport, I see one or more of his MOU's signing on the dotted line.
It's a pretty long shot that a long term market will materialize, but I seriously doubt that this self made Billionaire will have tossed half a billion out the window just to sell a building at a fraction of what he's invested overall.

[HMXHMX]

The Dnepr LV cost about $15-20M each so Bigelow has spent already spent $30-40M on launch services for the two Genesis. To get on the launch manifest for SpaceX takes more than a handshake. The "I am Serrious about a launch" down payment being up to 20% of total price or probably somewhere between $5 and $10M Bigelow had to pay SpaceX. The next payment would be at ~18 months out of 40% or ~$22M. So by beginning of 2013 its pay or slip time. If CCDev is moving too slow and won't be active by mid / late 2014 but a year or more later the Sundancer will slip out to 2015/2016.

At the time Bigelow signed up for that original falcon Five ride, the price was about $12M – about the same as he had paid for Dnepr.  So – speculating wildly –  he might have paid for it in full, in which case SpaceX owes him an equivalent ride (meaning an F9).  He could be using that for CST-100 test, or as a bargaining chip on a much more capable FH ride in the future.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Looking at the Bigelow site, you're correct the Sundancer is no longer featured. Probably meaning that he will need an FH not a F9 for the first module launch. Also by skipping the Sundancer his development costs decrease because he is developing just the BA330 and not a much smaler Sundancer and a BA330.

[Danderman]

The Dnepr LV cost about $15-20M each so Bigelow has spent already spent $30-40M on launch services for the two Genesis.

Its tough to read posts that begin with inaccurate assertions.

[Danderman]

I seriously doubt that this self made Billionaire will have tossed half a billion out the window just to sell a building at a fraction of what he's invested overall.

Bigelow has not come close to investing half a billion dollars so far. And, by far, the greatest expense has been the various buildings that have been constructed.

[ChefPat]

I seriously doubt that this self made Billionaire will have tossed half a billion out the window just to sell a building at a fraction of what he's invested overall.

Bigelow has not come close to investing half a billion dollars so far. And, by far, the greatest expense has been the various buildings that have been constructed.

On the BA site thet say,
 "Mr. Bigelow has spent about $180 million of his own money so far and has said he is willing to spend up to $320 million more. An expansion of the factory will double the amount of floor space as the Bigelow Aerospace company begins the transition from research and development to production."
I can't find it right now, but there was info that said they'd spent around $40 or $45 million more in the time frame where they announced the Fore & Aft Propulsion Systems, the ECLSS trials & the big expansion of the factory.
I'm curious where you got the info to so definitively state "Bigelow has not come close to investing half a billion dollars so far. And, by far, the greatest expense has been the various buildings that have been constructed."?
Please post your source.

[Cherokee43v6]

Do you remember that Bigelow already has two demonstration vehicles flying? The biggest technological development was the ECSS, and Paragon is a partner of them.

Bigelow has 2 subscale models flying.

The biggest technological development for Bigelow is the development of something called a "paying customer"

Kinda hard to get paying customers without an assured means of access. 

I am not blaming Bigelow, just the opposite. His strategy seems to be: build buildings, fly subscale models and generate mockups until he gets a customer, then he will spend the big bucks to fly his space stations. This is similar to my strategy, which is to do nothing until I win the mega-lottery, then I will fly space stations, too. My chances are somewhat poorer than Bob Bigelow's, but its the same idea.

What bothers me are the people here who assume that Bigelow is going to fly space stations on his own dime.

Alternatively you can look at each of your arguments above as follows:

Build buildings:  Develop the infrastructure necessary for producing and operating the product in a timely and efficient manner when the market opens. (First mover advantage.)

Fly subscale models:  Develops internal ground control operations experience for Bigelow's internal flight controllers.  Genesis I and II are fully functioning technology demonstration satellites.  If all he wanted to prove was that they could be deployed in orbit Bigelow wouldn't have had them launched to the orbits they are in.  My understanding based on the published reading material is that both were intended as long term tests of the inflatable concept and structure in a space environment.  As they continue to age their telemetry can only become more valuable as they pass predicted and/or actual failure points.

Generate Mockups: Architects quite often build scale models and even full size elements of their buildings for the purpose of evaluating the 'human factors' elements associated with them.  What looks good in 2 dimensions or in 3 on a computer screen may be bollox when a real live human being has to deal with it.  Mock-ups enable such issues to be solved before someone's life depends upon being able to reach a valve to turn its knob/handle in a freefall environment with no unbreakable leverage in reach.

In short, it can be argued that each of the above can be viewed as a critical path precursor to the development and operation of a commercial space station.

As to launching them on his own dime, he's on record as saying that he will own all his stations and rent space on them.  That may change at some point in the future should Bigelow see a market for commercial station ownership, but at least initially, he's the landlord.  Thus, when the time comes, he will be launching them on his own nickle.  I do agree, though, that he probably won't launch the first one until he has the first rental/utilization contract in place.

[Danderman]

On the BA site thet say,
 "Mr. Bigelow has spent about $180 million of his own money so far

 

I'm curious where you got the info to so definitively state "Bigelow has not come close to investing half a billion dollars so far.
Please post your source.

 

[ChefPat]

I doesn't look like the Taxman thinks it's worth $100 miilion.
Real Property Parcel Record

[Danderman]

In short, it can be argued that each of the above can be viewed as a critical path precursor to the development and operation of a commercial space station.

I am not saying that there is anything wrong with building buildings, flying subscale models, and building mockups. I am simply saying that is Bigelow does.

As to launching them on his own dime, he's on record as saying that he will own all his stations and rent space on them.  That may change at some point in the future should Bigelow see a market for commercial station ownership, but at least initially, he's the landlord.  Thus, when the time comes, he will be launching them on his own nickle.  I do agree, though, that he probably won't launch the first one until he has the first rental/utilization contract in place.

I am not suggesting that Bigelow would not take title if he were to fly a space station for his customers. I am simply saying that Bigelow won't fly a space station until he has paying customers, paying commercial terms.

[Danderman]

I doesn't look like the Taxman thinks it's worth $100 miilion.
Real Property Parcel Record

This is not the only building that Bigelow has developed, and the assessor probably has not yet assessed the new construction, nor would the assessor include the value of the stuff inside the building.

[ChefPat]

This is not the only building that Bigelow has developed, and the assessor probably has not yet assessed the new construction, nor would the assessor include the value of the stuff inside the building.

That tax assessment is for this year & next. An estimated value would have been added on to the bill. If they made it too much they'll give you a rebate next time.
The assessor will never include the furniture in the the value of a house.
 I'd say if he's invested $100 million plus in tools he's pretty serious about using them.

[Cherokee43v6]

In short, it can be argued that each of the above can be viewed as a critical path precursor to the development and operation of a commercial space station.

I am not saying that there is anything wrong with building buildings, flying subscale models, and building mockups. I am simply saying that is Bigelow does.

As to launching them on his own dime, he's on record as saying that he will own all his stations and rent space on them.  That may change at some point in the future should Bigelow see a market for commercial station ownership, but at least initially, he's the landlord.  Thus, when the time comes, he will be launching them on his own nickle.  I do agree, though, that he probably won't launch the first one until he has the first rental/utilization contract in place.

I am not suggesting that Bigelow would not take title if he were to fly a space station for his customers. I am simply saying that Bigelow won't fly a space station until he has paying customers, paying commercial terms.

Bigelow also recognizes this about his operation.  Primarily because, until he has assured access to his stations in orbit he has no means to acquire paying customers.

This is the reason he put up $50 million of his own money for the 'America's Space Prize' (unclaimed, expired in 2010) for the development of a privately funded (no government money), manned capable orbital spacecraft.

Why he pushed hard several years ago for the 'Orion Lite' with LM.

And why he has partnered with Boeing on the CST-100 development.

It is most likely also why he is talking with NASA about an inflatable addition to the ISS.  This would enable him to prove his product in a manned capacity earlier if commercial crew development is unable to meet its current schedules (as many suspect will be the case).

In keeping with the spirit of this thread's title, what is really great about right now is that we have a couple of guys with large fortunes who are very willing to make them into small fortunes in the advancement of private spaceflight!

[Danderman]

It is most likely also why he is talking with NASA about an inflatable addition to the ISS. 

And this may very well be the home run that Bigelow is looking for. Getting a contract to build an ISS module would help recoup much of his investment.

I dimly recall that Bigelow may have been one of the bidders for the canceled Hab module.

[Cherokee43v6]

It is most likely also why he is talking with NASA about an inflatable addition to the ISS. 

And this may very well be the home run that Bigelow is looking for. Getting a contract to build an ISS module would help recoup much of his investment.

I dimly recall that Bigelow may have been one of the bidders for the canceled Hab module.

I doubt that last bit.  Bigelow bought the rights to the 'TransHab' which was developed as an alternative to the 'canhab' that was being developed for the station.  I don't think he was in the space business when those contracts were let. When Congress pulled the plug on that unsafe balloon (as I recall one congress critter referring to it), Bigelow saw an opportunity to acquire a revolutionary technology, cheap.

My concern with the Bigelow/ISS angle is whether the Congressional language banning the use of any inflatable modules on the ISS is still in effect.

[Prober]

I seriously doubt that this self made Billionaire will have tossed half a billion out the window just to sell a building at a fraction of what he's invested overall.

Bigelow has not come close to investing half a billion dollars so far. And, by far, the greatest expense has been the various buildings that have been constructed.

Now, Now be nice to Bigelow.....all he has to do is get some papers with the India gov. and ISS and we could have a new section with thrusters as part of the ISS.   Have any idea what could happen then?

[joek]

My concern with the Bigelow/ISS angle is whether the Congressional language banning the use of any inflatable modules on the ISS is still in effect.

Congress didn't ban the use of trans-hab for the ISS.  They banned trans-hab as a replacement for the agreed-upon modules (with one possible and unlikely exception; see quote below).  That effectively eliminated it from play as NASA would have had to fund it as an addition (vs. replacement) module; the probability of that was nil.

If NASA can find the funds, there is nothing stopping them today from adding an inflatable module to the ISS.

See 106th Congress H.R.1654 SEC 127 TRANS-HAB

SEC. 127. TRANS-HAB.
(a) REPLACEMENT STRUCTURE.—No funds authorized by this Act shall be obligated for the definition, design, procurement, or development of an inflatable space structure to replace any International
Space Station components scheduled for launch in the Assembly Sequence adopted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in June 1999.
(b) EXCEPTION.—Notwithstanding subsection (a), nothing in this Act shall preclude the National Aeronautics and Space Administration from leasing or otherwise using a commercially provided inflatable habitation module, if such module would—
(1) cost the same or less, including any necessary modifications to other hardware or operating expenses, than the remaining cost of completing and attaching the baseline habitation module;
(2) impose no delays to the Space Station Assembly Sequence; and
(3) result in no increased safety risk.

[Danderman]

I seriously doubt that this self made Billionaire will have tossed half a billion out the window just to sell a building at a fraction of what he's invested overall.

Bigelow has not come close to investing half a billion dollars so far. And, by far, the greatest expense has been the various buildings that have been constructed.

Now, Now be nice to Bigelow.....all he has to do is get some papers with the India gov. and ISS and we could have a new section with thrusters as part of the ISS.   Have any idea what could happen then?

You must either be suggesting that Bob Bigelow would pay for a module at ISS for the use of ISRO, which would be incredible; or that ISRO would pay Bob Bigelow, which is unbelievable.