Commercial Space: No Bucks, No Buck Rogers!

[HMXHMX]

I wonder when Bezos hits a billion sunk into Blue Origin, 2015? 2018?

I estimate their current burn rate is between $20-30M/year.  At that rate, counting what has gone before, about 2040 or 2055, assuming constant spending.

Of course, we don't know what they plan to spend in the next few years.

[NotGncDude]

There was a presentation where BO publicly claims $50M/year

[NotGncDude]

I stand by my comment that startups like Kistler, which spend large amount of other people's money (taxdollars in Kistler's case) without actually ever producing a product, are charlatans.

They give a bad name to the companies that actually deliver. The COTS funds to SpaceX and OSC are actually leading to useful rockets. All the public and private money spent on Kistler might as well have have been flushed down the toilet. They promised enormously more than they could deliver, and cheated investors and taxpayers in the process.

I am sorry but this is simply false. Kistler never delivered the final rocket but there were a lot of finished components and research that went on to other projects. I agree there's a lot that can be criticized about Kistler but it's false that *nothing* came out of it.

Its very likely that Kistler funded the initial acquisition and transport of dozens of NK-33 engines from Samara to Sacramento, which paved the way for Taurus II.

The flight software excluding aborts was completely finished by Draper. Beautiful thing.

[HMXHMX]

There was a presentation where BO publicly claims $50M/year

Do you have a copy?  That would be interesting to read.

Of course, they just got half of this year's budget from NASA via CCDEV2, in that case.

[baldusi]

There was a presentation where BO publicly claims $50M/year

Do you have a copy?  That would be interesting to read.

Of course, they just got half of this year's budget from NASA via CCDEV2, in that case.

In the CCDev2 presentation it stated that the owner was willing to put upto 50M per year. Not sure if it's actually put, if said amount didn't went up with Amazon's market cap, or anything else.

[Prober]

I stand by my comment that startups like Kistler, which spend large amount of other people's money (taxdollars in Kistler's case) without actually ever producing a product, are charlatans.

They give a bad name to the companies that actually deliver. The COTS funds to SpaceX and OSC are actually leading to useful rockets. All the public and private money spent on Kistler might as well have have been flushed down the toilet. They promised enormously more than they could deliver, and cheated investors and taxpayers in the process.

I am sorry but this is simply false. Kistler never delivered the final rocket but there were a lot of finished components and research that went on to other projects. I agree there's a lot that can be criticized about Kistler but it's false that *nothing* came out of it.

Its very likely that Kistler funded the initial acquisition and transport of dozens of NK-33 engines from Samara to Sacramento, which paved the way for Taurus II.

I read somewhere on here that Aerojet wanted like 100 million out of Kistler when they first went bankrupt.  Most of their pics show engines out of someone elses warehouse, so don't think Kistler ever owned engines?

[Nate_Trost]

Of course, we don't know what they plan to spend in the next few years.

True, but one can extrapolate somewhat, for example if they go ahead with development of the RBS referenced in their CCDev proposal, what's a credible lower bound on development cost esimates? $500 million?

[HMXHMX]

Of course, we don't know what they plan to spend in the next few years.

True, but one can extrapolate somewhat, for example if they go ahead with development of the RBS referenced in their CCDev proposal, what's a credible lower bound on development cost esimates? $500 million?

No idea, really.  I know what I'd have to pay for similar capability, but I wouldn't be using their approach, so my opinion isn't relevant.

Whatever it may be, if he want to pay the piper, Bezos can afford it.  So to the first order, it doesn't matter.

[Danderman]

My two cents worth:

If I had to predict whether Bigelow or Blue Origin will fly a full scale system in space, I would bet on Blue Origin; Bigelow seems to invest heavily in buildings and mockups and subscale flight models, whereas Blue Origin seems to invest in technology.

[baldusi]

My two cents worth:

If I had to predict whether Bigelow or Blue Origin will fly a full scale system in space, I would bet on Blue Origin; Bigelow seems to invest heavily in buildings and mockups and subscale flight models, whereas Blue Origin seems to invest in technology.

Do you remember that Bigelow already has two demonstration vehicles flying? The biggest technological development was the ECSS, and Paragon is a partner of them.

[Danderman]

Do you remember that Bigelow already has two demonstration vehicles flying? The biggest technological development was the ECSS, and Paragon is a partner of them.

Bigelow has 2 subscale models flying.

The biggest technological development for Bigelow is the development of something called a "paying customer"

[Cherokee43v6]

Do you remember that Bigelow already has two demonstration vehicles flying? The biggest technological development was the ECSS, and Paragon is a partner of them.

Bigelow has 2 subscale models flying.

The biggest technological development for Bigelow is the development of something called a "paying customer"

Kinda hard to get paying customers without an assured means of access.  "Psst... Hey Buddy, I've got a great Island get-a-way to sell you... of course you'll have to swim through 30' breakers over the razor sharp coral of a shark infested reef."

Bigelow is not going to get money down on one of his stations until after CCDev (or independent development) results in a viable, affordable commercial crew capsule.  His use of the MOU's is to prejudge and evaluate the level of interest so he can develop a plan for production and operational development once that goal is accomplished.

Therefore, Bigelow's biggest technical challenge is almost completely out of his hands, namely access to his product for the paying customer.

As a businessman, what I expect to see out of Bigelow is his organization keeping close tabs on the front-runners in the commercial crew field.  He has reasonably close contacts already with SpaceX and is in bed with Boeing on CST-100.  It sounds like he has at least another $100 - 120 million dollars of his own money to sustain his business to that point.  When Commercial Crew success is either assured within a short timeline or actually proven by successful manned flights, he will then go back to his MOU folks for the money to convert the MOU's to contracts.  I strongly suspect that he will already have at least the first module built and ready to launch for his 'Alpha' station when that time comes.

Everything seems to hinge on the next three years progress from the CCDev program.

[Danderman]

Do you remember that Bigelow already has two demonstration vehicles flying? The biggest technological development was the ECSS, and Paragon is a partner of them.

Bigelow has 2 subscale models flying.

The biggest technological development for Bigelow is the development of something called a "paying customer"

Kinda hard to get paying customers without an assured means of access. 

I am not blaming Bigelow, just the opposite. His strategy seems to be: build buildings, fly subscale models and generate mockups until he gets a customer, then he will spend the big bucks to fly his space stations. This is similar to my strategy, which is to do nothing until I win the mega-lottery, then I will fly space stations, too. My chances are somewhat poorer than Bob Bigelow's, but its the same idea.

What bothers me are the people here who assume that Bigelow is going to fly space stations on his own dime.

[docmordrid]

What about one as a proof for the integrated system?

[Danderman]

What about one as a proof for the integrated system?

Who is going to pay for it?

[docmordrid]

If they used the first FH then SpaceX pays for a test they'd do anyhow, perhaps  even with some paying secondary payloads, and ditto for Bigelow and the hab. Shared expenses.

[Danderman]

If they used the first FH then SpaceX pays for a test they'd do anyhow, perhaps  even with some paying secondary payloads, and ditto for Bigelow and the hab. Shared expenses.

If this somehow is intended to imply that Bigelow would pay for a launch of a full sized space platform without a customer, it would be inaccurate.

[baldusi]

If they used the first FH then SpaceX pays for a test they'd do anyhow, perhaps  even with some paying secondary payloads, and ditto for Bigelow and the hab. Shared expenses.

If this somehow is intended to imply that Bigelow would pay for a launch of a full sized space platform without a customer, it would be inaccurate.

I think that he was implying that since the inaugural FH flight doesn't have a client. SpaceX and Bigelow could get into an agreement where SpaceX puts them for free, in exchange of something. Like future revenues, a certain margin for x amount of cargo when bidding, etc. And if SpaceX get's a paying customer, Bigelow doesn't launches and no hard feelings.

[DigitalMan]

All this speculation is unnecessary, Bigelow has already stated he was prepared to invest $500 million and clearly has the resources to build and launch his own station if he wants to.

If they used the first FH then SpaceX pays for a test they'd do anyhow, perhaps  even with some paying secondary payloads, and ditto for Bigelow and the hab. Shared expenses.

If this somehow is intended to imply that Bigelow would pay for a launch of a full sized space platform without a customer, it would be inaccurate.

I think that he was implying that since the inaugural FH flight doesn't have a client. SpaceX and Bigelow could get into an agreement where SpaceX puts them for free, in exchange of something. Like future revenues, a certain margin for x amount of cargo when bidding, etc. And if SpaceX get's a paying customer, Bigelow doesn't launches and no hard feelings.

[Blackjax]

What bothers me are the people here who assume that Bigelow is going to fly space stations on his own dime.

Do you have any hard evidence beyond your personal opinion that he won't?

As others have pointed out, there is at least circumstantial evidence supporting the theory that he might, given the dollar figure he has expressed a willingness to spend from his own pocket to get the business going.  I dunno if he will or won't, and assumptions given the lack of evidence one way or the other are premature, but there does seem to be at least a little stronger argument for the former than the latter.