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#80
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 16:14
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If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.
Mike Moses said something along these lines, but added the important caveat that he's keeping his options open. They don't have to make a decision on tanking -- or other go/no-go decisions with a big weather component -- until later.
Atlantis hasn't scrubbed since November 2007, doesn't look Atlantis will maintain that track record.
Weather or other short-term delays of a day or two are dwarfed by bigger issues that sometimes happen before a Shuttle-stack gets to launch count. Such as with Atlantis prior to STS-125.
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#81
by
Keyman
on 06 Jul, 2011 16:25
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
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#82
by
Harold KSC
on 06 Jul, 2011 16:32
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
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#83
by
bookemdano
on 06 Jul, 2011 17:29
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
I think he was making a joke
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#84
by
Retired Downrange
on 06 Jul, 2011 18:01
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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#85
by
Keyman
on 06 Jul, 2011 20:05
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
I think he was making a joke
Yep. Sorry, I forgot to turn on the sarcasm font.
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#86
by
stuart_wildcat
on 06 Jul, 2011 22:00
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If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.
Mike Moses said something along these lines, but added the important caveat that he's keeping his options open. They don't have to make a decision on tanking -- or other go/no-go decisions with a big weather component -- until later.
I don't think I said my line above in the best way possible. What I was implying is that if they try to make an early call based only on weather and don't tank there is 0% chance of launch (with no fuel) as opposed to what we are seeing with the weather right now which is 30-40% chance of launch.
I took what Mike said to mean it's not like they wouldn't call it off early due to weather if we had a huge blanket of powerful thunderstorms in the area but they are unlikely to call anything early due to weather alone if it is just marginal.
So I think everyone worrying about the weather should do as we've always done, don't assume the launch isn't happening but do find out what you will need to do (rebook LTT to causeway, etc) in case it does get scrubbed late. Weather scrubs will likely be late scrubs and the later the scrub the more confusion ensues when it happens so have your game plan in place before then.
Hopefully we will all be saying Friday afternoon, "and then the clouds parted and Atlantis roared through one final time!" (and we were all able to see more than 20-30 seconds)
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#87
by
wingsofdana
on 06 Jul, 2011 23:31
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
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#88
by
Furner
on 06 Jul, 2011 23:38
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
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#89
by
mixologist07
on 06 Jul, 2011 23:48
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
I think we're too far out to be getting excited over a computer-generated model that disagrees with highly trained human prediction, but not bad news, certainly.
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#90
by
shuttlefanatic
on 07 Jul, 2011 00:15
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/423407main_weather-rules-feb2010.pdfReally Short Version: No clouds below 8000 unless the layer is less than 500 ft thick (launch constraint) and the bases are above 5000 (RTLS constraint). No clouds meeting certain (electrical storm) criteria within 10 miles of flight path. No flight through rain. No lightning within 10 miles within 30 minutes of launch time.
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#91
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 00:41
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The good news about "spaghetti" models? They have a neat name. And used correctly they help a human make a forecast...
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#92
by
wingsofdana
on 07 Jul, 2011 00:57
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Yes, my husband is a forecaster at AFTAC(here in southern FL) and they rely heavily on spaghetti models. I'm trying to find a shred of hope, somewhere.
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#93
by
Furner
on 07 Jul, 2011 01:34
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There is still plenty of hope. Just be well-prepared. Luck favors the prepared.
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#94
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 01:44
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That isn't a shred of hope, it's just a computer program. One of dozens. Spaghetti models are never to be used on their own.
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#95
by
STS-134
on 07 Jul, 2011 02:08
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/423407main_weather-rules-feb2010.pdf
Really Short Version: No clouds below 8000 unless the layer is less than 500 ft thick (launch constraint) and the bases are above 5000 (RTLS constraint). No clouds meeting certain (electrical storm) criteria within 10 miles of flight path. No flight through rain. No lightning within 10 miles within 30 minutes of launch time.
Why are launches allowed with RH of 0-10% down to 48F, but if the RH is 90-100%, down to 44F? And why does the minimum acceptable temperature
decrease as wind increases?
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#96
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 02:16
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Offhand only-slightly-educated guess and I'll take the second one first since I have better confidence.
On a very calm day, if you have very cold temps on a surface (think ice-forming areas) it can cool the air nearby below it's ambient temperature, and enhance the icing process. If you have wind constantly blowing the cooler air away from the surface and replacing with warmer air, it won't ice as fast. Think of sitting in a pool by yourself - your body heat warms the immediate area. If you're in a river, that warm air near you is blown away. So reverse this setup to bring it back to shuttle.
My guess on the RH is brittleness? Things that need to be flexible (rubber) grow harder in cold dry air than cold moist air. So if the RH is high, it can be a little more chilled in the air.
I know I have documents somewhere with more of an explainer, if no experts chime in I'll dig around.
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#97
by
STS-134
on 07 Jul, 2011 02:46
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Offhand only-slightly-educated guess and I'll take the second one first since I have better confidence.
On a very calm day, if you have very cold temps on a surface (think ice-forming areas) it can cool the air nearby below it's ambient temperature, and enhance the icing process. If you have wind constantly blowing the cooler air away from the surface and replacing with warmer air, it won't ice as fast. Think of sitting in a pool by yourself - your body heat warms the immediate area. If you're in a river, that warm air near you is blown away. So reverse this setup to bring it back to shuttle.
My guess on the RH is brittleness? Things that need to be flexible (rubber) grow harder in cold dry air than cold moist air. So if the RH is high, it can be a little more chilled in the air.
I know I have documents somewhere with more of an explainer, if no experts chime in I'll dig around.
Yeah but on the other hand, a higher RH value makes ice that much
more likely to form in large amounts, doesn't it? I mean, if the RH is 0% or very close to it, it doesn't matter how cold it is -- you just won't get any ice forming at all. And wind is something that I see as transporting a larger volume of air past the points where ice form more quickly (which means more water has the opportunity to condense out and freeze). If I have two cooling coils that are below freezing, one just sitting in still air and another with a fan blowing on it, the one with the fan blowing on it is going to have a lot more ice form on it after a given amount of time.
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#98
by
TFGQ
on 07 Jul, 2011 10:58
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where are we with the weather situation as far as tanking and launch
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#99
by
MrSweets
on 07 Jul, 2011 11:11
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NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
630 AM CDT THURSDAY JULY 07 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P13
SHRA/TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW035 FEW100 7 33009P13
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 31007P10
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 FEW120 7 19010P14
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P13
SHRA/TSRA WI 30NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW FEW080 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
NOR ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 08/0320
